Deutsche Bank – Synthetic Equity & Index Strategy – Global
The Flow Whisperer – TAARSS says no trends…stay diversified during Q4
Tactical Asset Allocation Relative Strength Signal (TAARSS) Monthly Update
In Q4, prefer equities, followed by fixed income, and a pinch of commodities. Prefer longer maturities within fixed income.
Main asset classes were down during September with Global equities (ACWI) and US bonds (AGG) losing 3.32% and 0.61%, respectively. While Commodities (DBC) plunged by 7.23%.
TAARSS rotation strategy quarterly and monthly performance review
TAARSS strategies and benchmarks were all negative for the quarter and for the last month. The quarterly multi asset rotation outperformed its benchmarks, while the global equity monthly rotations were significantly weaker than their benchmarks. The multi asset allocation turned appropriate for Q3, however the equity TAARSS performance for market and regions was impacted by the reversal of EM and Latam.
Tactical positioning for Q4 and October 2014
Global growth uncertainty, geopolitical risks, looming interest rate hikes, and commodity weakness, all bode well for a volatile environment across all asset classes. As a result, TAARSS signals are suggesting non trending markets. More specifically, TAARSS recommends a diversified asset allocation for Q4 with a preference for equities, followed by fixed income, and a small sleeve for commodities. Within fixed income, TAARSS recommends a preference for long term duration for the quarter (see details for new quarterly duration rotation strategy on Page 18). For October, TAARSS signals for equities advice to maintain a diversified exposure with a relative preference for DM over EM, with focus in the US away from small caps. We also caution against the strength of the signals of Switzerland, Latin America, Brazil, Russia, South Korea, and US Treasuries as we think they are influenced by flow anomalies.