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Global ETF trends to watch in 2024

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Active fixed income ETFs, emerging markets, and thematic, growth-focused ETFs: Jason Xavier, Head of EMEA ETF Capital Markets, opines on global ETF trends he sees ahead in 2024.

Active fixed income ETFs, emerging markets, and thematic, growth-focused ETFs: Jason Xavier, Head of EMEA ETF Capital Markets, opines on global ETF trends he sees ahead in 2024.

“Everybody has a plan until they get punched in the mouth”. – Boxer Mike Tyson, 1987.

It often feels similar when drafting a year-ahead outlook—wondering what geopolitical or third- standard-deviation event could disrupt any forthcoming predictions and be the derailing punch! Last year was no different; however, our expectations for a tactical shift were largely accurate.

We believe 2024 points to more macro volatility as the duration trade continues, albeit in reverse. This macro uncertainty is the current anchor, influencing both equity and bond markets globally. Therefore, we believe this volatility favours a more hands-on approach to managing investments over the coming year.

Active management has never been more important, so we believe utilising core and satellite equity exchange-traded fund (ETF) building blocks coupled with active fixed income ETFs will be key to success.

My 2024 predictions follow:

Active fixed income ETFs will see increased investor inflows

Global inflation has fallen month-on-month into November 2023, and at as of the beginning of December, European equity markets are pricing in 150 basis points of interest-rate cuts from the European Central Bank in 2024, so it seems pretty clear that rates are going to come down. The question is: when? Some of the earliest central banks to raise interest rates, such as Brazil, are now the first to reverse their hawkish stance and can now serve as the canary in the coalmine in terms of measuring the effectiveness of their monetary policy approach. The focus now turns to the economic “landing” story, wherein a small uptick in unemployment in the United States and Europe may suggest a softening of the labour market and an impending hard landing (recession) as we enter the next calendar year.

Against the backdrop of a suggested downturn looming, we believe fixed income will be in focus again this year—specifically, duration and credit worthiness. Therefore, we believe fixed income ETFs that offer longer duration and better-quality credit should see the greater share of net inflows in 2024. We also believe an active approach to fixed income investing makes sense in this volatile period. Additionally, any such bond offerings providing a “green” overlay will benefit from the ongoing positive momentum bolstering sustainable investment opportunities.

Being selective with emerging markets may aid outperformance. Hence, single-country emerging market ETFs likely to see increased assets under management (AUM)

Assuming that 2024 brings coordinated central-bank dovishness, we see two distinct potential paths. Firstly, we see a potentially weakening US dollar that drives strength and a redirection of capital flows into emerging market (EM) economies, which have struggled to attract foreign investment in recent times. As a result, select emerging market economies exposed to both domestic and export growth should be well-poised to outperform. Secondly, one must be wary of the counter-argument that in a risk-on environment there are potentially better options than EM investment, such as quality fixed income, the Magnificent Seven or the stalwart growth-heavy S&P 500 Index. Staying with the former, focus must be set on the markets with value and growth potential, the so-called “diamonds in the rough.” We’re bullish on tech-heavy EM economies such as Taiwan and South Korea, which, due to their strong presence in the semiconductor industry, are well-positioned to benefit from the tailwinds of artificial intelligence (AI) development.

India is also a key market of interest, due partly to secular developments. Its demographically advantageous population also leads it to be a key player, not only as a potential outperformer within key EM indices (alongside Brazil and South Korea), but also globally. We again, therefore, believe in the merits of a more active/tactical approach to managing a broad EM strategy utilising low-cost single-country emerging market building blocks to over/underweight relative to the broad benchmark.

Growth, thematic and technology: Thematic growth-focused ETFs will see strong inflows.

I’m a firm believer that we are at a pivotal moment societally and stand at the proverbial crossroads of one of the most transformative waves in our short history. The ever-fast developments of AI, including the recent strides of artificial generative intelligence (AGI), are signs that we are in the midst of the next revolution, almost as important as the agricultural or manufacturing revolutions of the past. With the speed at which this development is taking place, fuelled by the autonomous nature in development of AI, it’s important to consider potential investment opportunities. Thematic investing allows investors the ability to tap into these long-term structural trends, targeting areas of the market that are at the forefront of this growth in sectors that are seeing monumental transition. For example, within healthcare, we are seeing the emergence of new preventative methods and technologies for disease avoidance as well as innovative technologies playing their part in the operating theatre—all of this against the backdrop of an ageing population. In addition to this, new emerging technologies are being prioritised to help mitigate a world under severe threat from the impacts of climate change (drought/ famine). Often such thematic opportunities support growth not only in quaternary sectors like AI and technology but evolving structural changes in primary and tertiary sectors like food and healthcare.

WHAT ARE THE RISKS?

All investments involve risks, including possible loss of principal.

Equity securities are subject to price fluctuation and possible loss of principal.

Fixed income securities involve interest rate, credit, inflation and reinvestment risks, and possible loss of principal. As interest rates rise, the value of fixed income securities falls. Low-rated, high-yield bonds are subject to greater price volatility, illiquidity and possibility of default.

Changes in the credit rating of a bond, or in the credit rating or financial strength of a bond’s issuer, insurer or guarantor, may affect the bond’s value.

International investments are subject to special risks, including currency fluctuations and social, economic and political uncertainties, which could increase volatility. These risks are magnified in emerging markets.

Investment strategies that incorporate the identification of thematic investment opportunities, and their performance, may be negatively impacted if the investment manager does not correctly identify such opportunities or if the theme develops in an unexpected manner.

Investments in fast-growing industries like the technology and health care sectors (which have historically been volatile) could result in increased price fluctuation, especially over the short term, due to the rapid pace of product change and development and changes in government regulation of companies emphasizing scientific or technological advancement or regulatory approval for new drugs and medical instruments.

To the extent the portfolio invests in a concentration of certain securities, regions or industries, it is subject to increased volatility.

For actively managed ETFs, there is no guarantee that the manager’s investment decisions will produce the desired results.

ETFs trade like stocks, fluctuate in market value and may trade above or below the ETF’s net asset value. Brokerage commissions and ETF expenses will reduce returns. ETF shares may be bought or sold throughout the day at their market price on the exchange on which they are listed. Shares of

ETFs are tradable on secondary markets and may trade either at a premium or a discount to their NAV on the secondary market. Retail investors buy and sell shares of ETFs at market price (not NAV) in the secondary market throughout the trading day. These shares are not individually available for purchase or redemption directly from the ETF.” Commissions, management fees, brokerage fees and expenses may be associated with investments in ETFs. Please read the prospectus and ETF facts before investing. ETFs are not guaranteed, their values change frequently, and past performance may not be repeated.

IMPORTANT LEGAL INFORMATION

This material is intended to be of general interest only and should not be construed as individual investment advice or a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell or hold any security or to adopt any investment strategy. It does not constitute legal or tax advice. This material may not be reproduced, distributed or published without prior written permission from Franklin Templeton.

The views expressed are those of the investment manager and the comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as at publication date and may change without notice. The underlying assumptions and these views are subject to change based on market and other conditions and may differ from other portfolio managers or of the firm as a whole. The information provided in this material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, region or market. There is no assurance that any prediction, projection or forecast on the economy, stock market, bond market or the economic trends of the markets will be realized. The value of investments and the income from them can go down as well as up and you may not get back the full amount that you invested. Past performance is not necessarily indicative nor a guarantee of future performance. All investments involve risks, including possible loss of principal.

Any research and analysis contained in this material has been procured by Franklin Templeton for its own purposes and may be acted upon in that connection and, as such, is provided to you incidentally. Data from third party sources may have been used in the preparation of this material and Franklin Templeton (“FT”) has not independently verified, validated or audited such data. Although information has been obtained from sources that Franklin Templeton believes to be reliable, no guarantee can be given as to its accuracy and such information may be incomplete or condensed and may be subject to change at any time without notice. The mention of any individual securities should neither constitute nor be construed as a recommendation to purchase, hold or sell any securities, and the information provided regarding such individual securities (if any) is not a sufficient basis upon which to make an investment decision. FT accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from use of this information and reliance upon the comments, opinions and analyses in the material is at the sole discretion of the user.

Products, services and information may not be available in all jurisdictions and are offered outside the U.S. by other FT affiliates and/or their distributors as local laws and regulation permits. Please consult your own financial professional or Franklin Templeton institutional contact for further information on availability of products and services in your jurisdiction.

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SEC ends stablecoin lawsuit, tokenized fund milestone, and Goldman dives into tokenization

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The crypto markets had a bounce-back week, buoyed by strong performance over the weekend. Bitcoin (BTC) increased 4.9%, ether (ETH) rose 6.9%, and the Nasdaq Crypto Index (NCI) was up 5.9%. Zooming out over a longer period, BTC's price action continues to follow a sideways pattern within its consolidation range.

The crypto markets had a bounce-back week, buoyed by strong performance over the weekend. Bitcoin (BTC) increased 4.9%, ether (ETH) rose 6.9%, and the Nasdaq Crypto Index (NCI) was up 5.9%. Zooming out over a longer period, BTC’s price action continues to follow a sideways pattern within its consolidation range.

SEC ends Paxos stablecoin investigation, no enforcement actions recommended

The acting chief of the SEC’s crypto assets and cyber unit has informed Paxos he does not intend to recommend enforcement action. The news helps provide regulatory clarity, boosting market confidence and setting a favorable legal precedent, which could help encourage the growth and adoption of stablecoins by major companies and financial institutions.

BlackRock’s tokenized US Treasuries fund surpasses $500M within four months

The fund, BUIDL, is issued in partnership with Securitize and backed by US Treasuries. This is the first tokenized treasury product to reach this milestone, helping to serve as validation for the tokenization of real-world assets, highlighting the rapid adoption and acceptance of these financial products, and attracting institutional investors seeking low-risk instruments with stable yields.

Goldman Sachs to launch three tokenization projects by the end of 2024

The firm plans to launch three tokenization projects by the end of the year, targeting major institutional clients, according to a report from Fortune. The ongoing entrance of traditional financial services firms into the crypto space helps validate the asset class.

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ASUI ETP spårar kryptovalutan SUI

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21Shares Sui Staking ETP (ASUI ETP), med ISIN CH1360612159, är 100 % fysiskt uppbackad av SUI-tokens och spårar resultatet av SUI för att erbjuda ett enkelt, reglerat och transparent sätt för investerare att få exponering mot Sui-blockkedjan. Sui är designad för att tillhandahålla snabba, säkra och skalbara decentraliserade applikationer (dApps) med sitt utvecklarvänliga programmeringsspråk och innovativa sätt att behandla transaktioner. 21Shares Sui Staking ETP erbjuder ett enkelt, reglerat och transparent sätt att dra nytta av nätverkets växande användning.

21Shares Sui Staking ETP (ASUI ETP), med ISIN CH1360612159, är 100 % fysiskt uppbackad av SUI-tokens och spårar resultatet av SUI för att erbjuda ett enkelt, reglerat och transparent sätt för investerare att få exponering mot Sui-blockkedjan. Sui är designad för att tillhandahålla snabba, säkra och skalbara decentraliserade applikationer (dApps) med sitt utvecklarvänliga programmeringsspråk och innovativa sätt att behandla transaktioner. 21Shares Sui Staking ETP erbjuder ett enkelt, reglerat och transparent sätt att dra nytta av nätverkets växande användning.

Fördelar

Snabb och skalbar blockkedja: Sui är en tillståndslös, proof of stake-driven Layer 1 blockchain designad för omedelbar avveckling, hög transaktionsgenomströmning och minskad latens i smart kontraktsimplementering. Den stöder ett blomstrande ekosystem av decentraliserade applikationer (dApps) inklusive DeFi och GameFi, vilket underlättas av dess unika förmåga att skala.

Staking med lätthet: Med ASUI kan investerare få tillgång till insatsavkastning med fördelen av professionell riskhantering samtidigt som de undviker behovet av att direkt låsa tillgångar.

100 % fysiskt uppbackad: 21Shares Sui Staking ETP stöds till 100 % fysiskt av SUI som hålls i kylförvaring av en pålitlig förvaringsinstitut av institutionell kvalitet. Denna inställning säkerställer robust säkerhet och skydd och överträffar typiska förvaringsalternativ som är tillgängliga för enskilda investerare.

Handla ASUI ETP

21Shares Sui Staking ETP (ASUI ETP) är en börshandlad kryptovaluta (ETC) som handlas på Euronext Amsterdam.

Euronext Amsterdam är en marknad som få svenska banker och nätmäklare erbjuder access till, men DEGIRO gör det.

Börsnoteringar

BörsValutaKortnamn
Euronext AmsterdamUSDASUI NA
Euronext ParisEURASUI FR

Produktinformation

Namn21Shares Sui Staking ETP
Lanseringsdatum9 juli 2024
Emittent21Shares AG
Förvaltningsarvode2,5%

Handelssymboler

KortnamnASUI
Valor136061215
ISINCH1360612159
ReutersASUI.S
WKNA4AHQE
BloombergASUI BW

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Crypto Market Compass | 15 July 2024

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Crypto Market Compass 15 July 2024 Last week, cryptoassets outperformed significantly on account of increasing evidence of seller exhaustion and favourable tailwinds from US monetary policy and US political developments.

• Last week, cryptoassets outperformed significantly on account of increasing evidence of seller exhaustion and favourable tailwinds from US monetary policy and US political developments.

• Our in-house “Cryptoasset Sentiment Index” has reversed sharply and signals a slightly bullish sentiment again.

• Both increasing odds for an initial Fed rate cut in September and increasing odds of a Trump presidency have provided a significant tailwind for Bitcoin and cryptoassets more recently.

Chart of the week

Performance

Last week, cryptoassets outperformed significantly on account of increasing evidence of seller exhaustion and favourable tailwinds from US monetary policy and US political developments.

Most notably, the odds for a Fed rate cut in September have significantly increased following weaker-than-expected inflation readings in June that have paved the way for earlier rate cuts in September.

At the time of writing, Fed Funds Futures pencil in a 91% chance of a Fed rate cut in September.

In addition, Trump odds for the presidential election in 2024 have jumped to new highs following the failed assassination attempt over the weekend (Chart-of-the-Week).

Trump has reiterated his intention to speak at the Bitcoin conference in Nashville on the 27th of July despite the assassination attempt, which has buoyed market sentiment in Bitcoin.

The favourable developments were flanked by the fact that the German government entity has completed its sale of 50k BTC last week on Friday. This had been a constant source of selling pressure over the past weeks which has now subsided.

Meanwhile, we saw increasing buying interest from global crypto ETP investors as well as global hedge funds that appear to have increased their market exposure to Bitcoin as well.

Furthermore, market sentiment is currently supported by the anticipated trading launch of the US spot Ethereum ETFs which is expected to take place on the 18th of July this week, according to Bloomberg analysts.

In general, among the top 10 crypto assets, Cardano, XRP, and Shiba Inu were the relative outperformers.

Overall, altcoin outperformance vis-à-vis Bitcoin has significantly increased again compared to the prior week, with 85% of our tracked altcoins managing to outperform Bitcoin on a weekly basis. Ethereum also outperformed Bitcoin on a weekly basis.

Sentiment

Our in-house “Cryptoasset Sentiment Index” has reversed sharply and signals a slightly bullish sentiment again.

At the moment, 8 out of 15 indicators are above their short-term trend.

Last week, there were significant increases in the BTC Futures Shorts Liquidation Dominance and the crypto ETP fund flows.

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index currently signals a “Neutral” level of sentiment as of this morning. It had fallen to “Extreme Fear” readings last week.

Performance dispersion among cryptoassets has increased slightly again. This means that altcoins are becoming less correlated with the performance of Bitcoin again.

Altcoin outperformance vis-à-vis Bitcoin has also significantly increased compared to the week prior, with around 85% of our tracked altcoins outperforming Bitcoin on a weekly basis, which is consistent with the fact that Ethereum also outperformed Bitcoin last week.

In general, increasing (decreasing) altcoin outperformance tends to be a sign of increasing (decreasing) risk appetite within cryptoasset markets and the latest altcoin outperformance could signal increasing appetite for risk at the moment.

Meanwhile, sentiment in traditional financial markets also continued to improve along with a significant increase in market-based monetary policy expectations, judging by our own measure of Cross Asset Risk Appetite (CARA).

Fund Flows

Fund flows into global crypto ETPs continued to be very positive and even accelerated compared to the prior week.

Global crypto ETPs saw around +1,852.5 mn USD in net inflows across all types of cryptoassets which is significantly higher than the +695.9 mn USD in net inflows recorded the prior week.

Global Bitcoin ETPs saw net inflows of +1,749.9 mn USD last week, of which +1,047.7 mn USD in net inflows were related to US spot Bitcoin ETFs alone.

Last week also saw significant inflows into Hong Kong Bitcoin ETFs once again with +451.9 mn USD in net inflows.

Outflows from the ETC Group Physical Bitcoin ETP (BTCE) decelerated last week with net outflows equivalent to -15.0 mn USD while the ETC Group Core Bitcoin ETP (BTC1) saw positive net inflows of +0.9 mn USD.

The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) continued to see minor net outflows, with around -35.2 mn USD last week.

Meanwhile, global Ethereum ETPs also saw an acceleration in flows last week compared to the week prior with positive net inflows totalling +83.5 mn USD. Hong Kong Ethereum ETFs also attracted some capital last week (+4.2 mn USD).

The ETC Group Physical Ethereum ETP (ZETH) saw sticky AuM last week and the ETC Group Ethereum Staking ETP (ET32) showed slight net outflows last week (-0.7 mn USD in net outflows).

Altcoin ETPs ex Ethereum continued to attract capital of around +14.4 mn USD which was slightly lower than last week.

Thematic & basket crypto ETPs also continued to see positive net inflows of +4.7 mn USD, based on our calculations. The ETC Group MSCI Digital Assets Select 20 ETP (DA20) also an increase in net inflows last week (+0.5 mn USD).

Meanwhile, global crypto hedge funds have continued to increase their market exposure even further. The 20-days rolling beta of global crypto hedge funds’ performance increased to around 0.72 (up from 0.66) per yesterday’s close.

On-Chain Data

Bitcoin on-chain data paint a picture of increasing seller exhaustion and accelerating buying interest.

Most notably, the German government entity has finished its sales of its 50k BTC last week on Friday, when its combined holdings reached 0 BTC according to data provided by Arkham. These sales had been a constant source of selling pressure previously which has now subsided.

Other major holders such as the US government or the Mt Gox trustee have not sold any bitcoins over the past week. That being said, any potential distribution from these entities still remains a risk for the market.

Both entities still control around 207k BTC and 139k BTC, respectively.
In our last report we wrote:

“On a positive note, this high degree of selling implies that sellers could become exhausted relatively soon, which would lead to a stabilization in prices.”

In fact, over the past week, we saw that net buying volumes on Bitcoin spot exchanges continue to gradually increase from oversold levels as selling pressure subsided and buying interest gradually accelerated as well. More specifically, net buying volumes on Bitcoin spot exchanges has increased to +353 mn USD over the past 7 days which is the highest level in 2 months.

Whale exchange transfers had reached the highest level since May 2023 last week in an increasing sign of whale capitulation and overall seller exhaustion. Whales are defined as entities that control at least 1,000 BTC.

In fact, whales realized the highest number of losses in USD-terms last week on Friday since July 2023. Whales are mostly comprised of short-term holders with a holding period of less than 155 days.

We think that this developments is particularly bullish and also adds to the evidence that a tactical bottom is likely as stated here.

Meanwhile, the Bitcoin mining hash rate has continued to stabilize since its low reached on the 28th of June and has increased by almost 50 EH/s since then. This is a sign of decreasing economic pressure on Bitcoin miners and decreases the risk of significant distributions.

In fact, the percentage of mined supply sold has decreased to the lowest level in 2024 to 95% over the past 30 days. This means that bitcoin miners have started to hold more than they mine on a daily basis. This has also decreased selling pressure on the market.

Futures, Options & Perpetuals

Last week, both BTC futures and perpetual open interest increased significantly in a sign of a return in risk appetite. More specifically, BTC futures and perpetual open interest increased by approximately +22k BTC and +17k BTC, respectively. This happened amid a spike in short futures liquidations to the highest level since mid-April 2024.

Perpetual funding rates remained positive throughout last week. When the funding rate is positive (negative), long (short) positions periodically pay short (long) positions. A positive funding rate tends to be a sign of bullish sentiment in perpetual futures markets.

The 3-months annualized BTC futures basis rate increased sharply from its recent lows to around 11.9% p.a.

BTC options’ open interest increased only slightly last week. Mostly driven by an increase in BTC call option demand as evidenced by the sharp drop in put-call open interest ratio.

This is consistent with the fact that the 1-month 25-delta option skew also declined significantly signalling a drop in relative demand for put options.
BTC option implied volatilities have generally declined over the past week. Implied volatilities of 1-month ATM Bitcoin options are currently at around 47.9% p.a.

Nonetheless, the term structure of volatility is still slightly inverted now, with short-dated options trading at significantly higher implied volatilities than options expiring in October. This could have something to do with the anticipated trading launch of Ethereum spot ETFs this week. The term structure of implied volatilities for Ethereum options shows a similar pattern, although less pronounced.

Bottom Line

• Last week, cryptoassets outperformed significantly on account of increasing evidence of seller exhaustion and favourable tailwinds from US monetary policy and US political developments.

• Our in-house “Cryptoasset Sentiment Index” has reversed sharply and signals a slightly bullish sentiment again.

• Both increasing odds for an initial Fed rate cut in September and increasing odds of a Trump presidency have provided a significant tailwind for Bitcoin and cryptoassets more recently.

To read our Crypto Market Compass in full, please click the button below:

This is not investment advice. Capital at risk. Read the full disclaimer

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