Följ oss

Nyheter

Erosion of Qatar’s dominance in LNG could drive demand responsiveness

Publicerad

den

The recent Saudi Arabia-led confrontation with Qatar could drive an increase in the use of flexible liquefied natural gas contracts and thus allow demand to be more responsive to price. Erosion of Qatar’s dominance in LNG could drive demand responsiveness.

The recent Saudi Arabia-led confrontation with Qatar could drive an increase in the use of flexible liquefied natural gas contracts and thus allow demand to be more responsive to price. Erosion of Qatar’s dominance in LNG could drive demand responsiveness.

As we noted in “US natural gas – international demand unlikely to absorb domestic glut”, the liquefied natural gas (LNG) market is in the midst of change. Qatar is the world’s largest producer of LNG with most LNG transacting in long-term contracts at fixed price. However, the emergence of Australia and the US as large players in the market will lead to growth in flexible contracts. Based on EIA projections, the US is likely rise from being a negligible player (less than 1% of global supply) to the world’s third largest (after Qatar and Australia), with the US LNG market growing six-fold by 2020.

(Click to enlarge)

This development could resemble the evolution we saw in the oil market in the 1970s and 1980s

This development could resemble the evolution we saw in the oil market in the 1970s and 1980s. Until the late 1970s, almost 90% of the world’s crude oil was sold under long-term contracts at prices set by the major oil companies. OPEC produced 67% of the free world’s crude oil, allowing it to dominate the price and quantity of oil sold. In the late 1970s and early 1980s, market-based spot and futures trading gained in importance as production from the non-OPEC countries surpassed OPEC oil production and as non-OPEC producers went to the spot markets to build market share. By the end of 1982, almost half of all internationally-traded oil was traded on exchanges using flexible futures contracts.

Prices driven by local fundamentals

Unlike crude oil, the global natural gas market is fragmented with prices driven by local fundamentals. LNG, which is gas turned into liquid and then shipped before re-gasification at destination, represents a small proportion of the local natural gas market. For example, the price of natural gas in the US is less than half the price of natural gas in Europe or Asia. While the US natural gas futures (Henry Hub) is the most liquid market and is used as main benchmark, prices move in response to domestic fundamentals leaving it a poor hedge for natural gas prices in other countries. In addition, the size of the LNG market is currently too small for LNG to truly impact on natural gas futures prices.

Considering this, the recent Saudi-led confrontation with Qatar can pose a risk to global supplies of LNG. Although shipments from the country have not been affected as yet, we cannot rule out an impact if the impasse intensifies. We believe that it could be a catalyst to quicken the migration away from long-term fixed contracts with Qatar to flexible contracts in countries like US and Australia. With importing countries eager to maintain energy security, they may demand Qatar also alter contracts to be more flexible (especially for new contracts).

Nitesh Shah, Research Analyst at ETF Securities

Nitesh is a Commodities Strategist at ETF Securities. Nitesh has 13 years of experience as an economist and strategist, covering a wide range of markets and asset classes. Prior to joining ETF Securities, Nitesh was an economist covering the European structured finance markets at Moody’s Investors Service and was a member of Moody’s global macroeconomics team. Before that he was an economist at the Pension Protection Fund and an equity strategist at Decision Economics. He started his career at HSBC Investment Bank. Nitesh holds a Bachelor of Science in Economics from the London School of Economics and a Master of Arts in International Economics and Finance from Brandeis University (USA).

Fortsätt läsa
Annons
Klicka för att kommentera

Skriv en kommentar

Din e-postadress kommer inte publiceras. Obligatoriska fält är märkta *

Nyheter

AINJ ETP spårar INJ och skapar staking intäkter

Publicerad

den

21Shares Injective Staking ETP (AINJ ETP) med ISIN CH1360612134 är 100 procent fysiskt uppbackad. 21Shares Injective Staking ETP (AINJ) spårar prestanda för INJ samtidigt som den skapar staking intäkter som återinvesteras i ETP för förbättrad prestanda. Medan blockchain-nätverk vanligtvis är siloförsedda, stöder Injective Protocol sömlösa interaktioner över stora nätverk, vilket möjliggör ett unikt utbud av finansiella produkter och tjänster. 21Shares Injective Staking ETP erbjuder ett enkelt, reglerat och transparent sätt att dra nytta av nätverkets växande betydelse inom decentraliserad finans (DeFi).

21Shares Injective Staking ETP (AINJ ETP) med ISIN CH1360612134 är 100 procent fysiskt uppbackad. 21Shares Injective Staking ETP (AINJ) spårar prestanda för INJ samtidigt som den skapar staking intäkter som återinvesteras i ETP för förbättrad prestanda. Medan blockchain-nätverk vanligtvis är siloförsedda, stöder Injective Protocol sömlösa interaktioner över stora nätverk, vilket möjliggör ett unikt utbud av finansiella produkter och tjänster. 21Shares Injective Staking ETP erbjuder ett enkelt, reglerat och transparent sätt att dra nytta av nätverkets växande betydelse inom decentraliserad finans (DeFi).

Fördelar

Innovativ teknik: Injective erbjuder ett avancerat DeFi-ekosystem med funktioner som noll gasavgifter och omedelbar slutgiltig transaktion, vilket förbättrar användarupplevelsen på finansiella kryptoapplikationer.

Staking med lätthet: Med AINJ kan investerare få tillgång till r med fördelen av professionell riskhantering samtidigt som de undviker behovet av att direkt låsa tillgångar.

100 % fysiskt uppbackad: 21Shares Injective Staking ETP är 100 % fysiskt backad av den underliggande INJ och förvaras i kylförvaring hos ett institutionellt förvaringsinstitut, vilket erbjuder ett bättre skydd än depåalternativ som är tillgängliga för enskilda investerare.

Nyckelinformation

Handla AINJ ETP

21Shares Injective Staking ETP (AINJ ETP) är en börshandlad kryptovaluta (ETP) som handlas på Euronext Amsterdam.

Euronext Amsterdam är en marknad som få svenska banker och nätmäklare erbjuder access till, men DEGIRO gör det.

Börsnoteringar

BörsValutaKortnamn
Euronext AmsterdamUSDAINJ NA
Euronext ParisEURAINJ FR

Produktinformation

Namn21Shares Injective Staking ETP
Lanseringsdatum9 juli 2024
Emittent21Shares AG
Förvaltningsarvode2,5%

Handelssymboler

KortnamnAINJ
Valor136061213
ISINCH1360612134
ReutersAINJ.S
WKNA4AHQC
BloombergAINJ BW

Fortsätt läsa

Nyheter

Mexico’s post-election potential and investment opportunities

Publicerad

den

Given Mexico’s vast potential and President-elect Claudia Sheinbaum’s track record of progress during her time as mayor of Mexico City, Franklin Templeton’s Dina Ting thinks that investors should be monitoring opportunities to enter this compelling market.

Given Mexico’s vast potential and President-elect Claudia Sheinbaum’s track record of progress during her time as mayor of Mexico City, Franklin Templeton’s Dina Ting thinks that investors should be monitoring opportunities to enter this compelling market.

Just how well—or not so well—Mexico’s President-elect Claudia Sheinbaum may be able to tackle the country’s prevailing challenges is still up for debate. Sheinbaum’s commanding margin of victory in the June election discouraged some investors amid fears that her ruling Morena party could potentially push through constitutional reforms that may adversely impact Mexico’s business environment.

Since the outcome of the US presidential election will remain undecided for a month after Sheinbaum takes office in October, we expect Mexico’s equity markets to experience more short-term market volatility. But given Mexico’s ongoing potential to capitalize on nearshoring investments and Sheinbaum’s track record of progress during her time as mayor of Mexico City (beginning in 2018), we think investors should be monitoring opportunities to enter this compelling market. We believe a continuation of US macro drivers are still poised to drive Mexican exports. Although US appetite for Chinese imports was still high even as recently as 2022, the drop-off in trade with China since then has benefited Mexico, which recently eclipsed both China and Canada to become the biggest US trade partner.

Mexico’s first female president

A protégé of outgoing President López Obrador (or AMLO as he is known), Sheinbaum has pledged to continue along the political course of her predecessor. But as a climate scientist with a Ph.D. in environmental engineering, she appears to us to be more attuned to pressing issues, such as Mexico’s water woes and efforts toward the energy transition. She has demonstrated deep, technical expertise and perspective on vital issues—“not simply as stewardship of natural resources, but also as an issue interconnected with education, social justice, health care, housing and infrastructure,” according to the think tank Atlantic Council.

There is hope that the public-private partnerships that Sheinbaum advanced during her time as Mexico City’s mayor could be a model that she adopts and adapts in her new administration to increase the number of strategic projects. These may include opening natural gas production and transportation to private participants, boosting infrastructure and more renewable energy projects that are critical for Mexico to take advantage of nearshoring-related investment opportunities.

Since renewables like solar and wind currently make up only about 12% of the electricity mix in Mexico (significantly lagging the 16% share for the United States), there is great potential for the country’s clean energy buildout. Sheinbaum has pledged to change course from AMLO in her approach to speeding the promotion of renewable energies with a US$13.6 billion investment plan through 2030 that includes pioneering development of smart grids and other green technologies. Experts have praised Sheinbaum’s methodical approach to governance, for example, bringing stability and predictability to regulatory frameworks with her technical background and reliance on seasoned advisors.

Among some of the moderate-to-high risks for Mexico is public security and crime. Here again, Sheinbaum’s approach in working with US counterparts during her tenure in Mexico City has been applauded. Her cabinet picks for key positions thus far present an even gender distribution and draw from academia and her mayoral administration—in a bid to repeat the successes in crime-fighting she achieved during her years as mayor. These include veteran politicians Omar Garcia Harfuch for Security Minister, Marcelo Ebrard for Secretary of Economy and Alicia Barcena for Secretary of Foreign Affairs.

Mexico poised for economic growth

Over the near term, Mexico is expected to achieve a 2% growth rate—higher than its 20-year average.4 Although Mexico’s headline inflation accelerated beyond analyst expectations in June, its strong trend of domestic demand and high consumer confidence should also offer some economic momentum, in our opinion. For example, June auto sales were up 8.3% from a year earlier, according to government data.

It’s also important to recognize that Mexico is the second-highest receiver of remittances—transfers of money from migrants working abroad—in the world, behind only India. For the decade leading up to 2020, the percentage of households in Mexico that received remittances rose to 5.1% from 3.6% in 2010. Last year, remittances to Mexico notched a 7.6% increase, hitting a record US$63 billion, due to a strong US labor market.

Exhibit 1: Mexico Consumer Confidence

Exhibit 2: Mexico Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Forecast

Investors seeking exposure to Mexico’s market through broad emerging market indexes, like the MSCI Emerging Market (EM) Index, gain less than a 3% weighting to Mexico. And while China’s dominant share of the benchmark is lower now than in recent years, it still presents a 25% weighting, which may be more than investors want. In our opinion, single-country exchange-traded funds offer a compelling way for investors to layer targeted access to a country’s large- and mid-sized companies at a low cost.

As of the end of June, Mexico’s main benchmark stock index, the IPC, held a 33% weighting in the consumer staples sector. Materials and financial sector stocks make up the next biggest weighting at about 19% each.

As Mexico continues to play a larger role in global supply chains, investors should note corporate nearshoring progress as gauged by the country’s foreign direct investment (FDI) trends. At the end of 2023, Mexico ranked ninth among the world’s largest recipients of FDI, receiving investments of US$36 billion—about 2% more than in the prior year. Longer term, we believe nearshoring efforts, to diversify and improve the security of supply chains, remain a key tailwind for Mexico’s economy and markets.

Fortsätt läsa

Nyheter

JPGR ETF investerar i amerikanska tillväxtaktier

Publicerad

den

JPMorgan Active US Growth UCITS ETF - USD (acc) (JPGR ETF) med ISIN IE0005CH3U28, är en aktivt förvaltad ETF som investerar i amerikanska tillväxtaktier och strävar efter att generera en högre långsiktig avkastning än Russell 1000 Growth-index. Aktierna som ingår filtreras enligt ESG-kriterier (miljö, social och bolagsstyrning).

JPMorgan Active US Growth UCITS ETF – USD (acc) (JPGR ETF) med ISIN IE0005CH3U28, är en aktivt förvaltad ETF som investerar i amerikanska tillväxtaktier och strävar efter att generera en högre långsiktig avkastning än Russell 1000 Growth-index. Aktierna som ingår filtreras enligt ESG-kriterier (miljö, social och bolagsstyrning).

Den börshandlade fondens TER (total cost ratio) uppgår till 0,49 procent p.a. JPMorgan Active US Growth UCITS ETF USD (acc) är den billigaste ETF som följer JPMorgan Active US Growth-index. ETF:n replikerar det underliggande indexets prestanda genom full replikering (köper alla indexbeståndsdelar). Utdelningarna i ETFen ackumuleras och återinvesteras.

JPMorgan Active US Growth UCITS ETF USD (acc) är en mycket liten ETF med 4 miljoner euro under förvaltning. ETF lanserades den 18 januari 2024 och har sin hemvist i Irland.

Möjlighet

Erfaret portföljförvaltningsteam med i genomsnitt 30 års branscherfarenhet

Utnyttja de bästa idéerna från JPMorgans dedikerade tillväxtforskningsteam, förutom grundläggande insikter från över 20 amerikanska aktiekarriäranalytiker, alla med i genomsnitt 20+ års branscherfarenhet

Portfölj

Kombinerar två av JPMorgans beprövade aktiva amerikanska aktiestrategier (tillväxt med stora bolag och tillväxtfördelar), som kombineras för att leverera en diversifierad portfölj av amerikanska tillväxtaktier med underskattad tillväxtpotential över sektorer.

Resultat

Aktivt förvaltad investeringsstrategi som strävar efter att leverera en stilren tillväxtaktieportfölj med en viss grad av marknadskapitalflexibilitet

Investeringsmål

Delfonden strävar efter att uppnå en långsiktig avkastning som överstiger Russell 1000 Growth Index (Netto Total Return of 30% källskatt på utdelning) (”riktmärket”) genom att aktivt investera främst i en tillväxtstilsorienterad portfölj av amerikanska företag .

Handla JPGR ETF

JPMorgan Active US Growth UCITS ETF – USD (acc) (JPGR ETF) är en europeisk börshandlad fond. Denna fond handlas på flera olika börser, till exempel Deutsche Boerse Xetra och London Stock Exchange.

Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETF genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel DEGIRONordnet, Aktieinvest och Avanza.

Börsnoteringar

BörsValutaKortnamn
Borsa ItalianaEURJGRO
London Stock ExchangeGBXJGOR
London Stock ExchangeUSDJGRO
SIX Swiss ExchangeUSDJGRO
XETRAEURJPGR

Största innehav

NamnISINVikt %
MICROSOFT CORPUS59491810459,63%
NVIDIA CORPUS67066G10406,95%
AMAZON.COM INCUS02313510676,67%
META PLATFORMS INC-CLASS AUS30303M10276,06%
APPLE INCUS03783310055,24%
ELI LILLY & COUS53245710833,99%
ALPHABET INC-CL CUS02079K10793,62%
MASTERCARD INC – AUS57636Q10402,93%
BROADCOM INCUS11135F10122,60%
Cash and Cash Equivalent2,15%

Innehav kan komma att förändras

Fortsätt läsa

Populära