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Crypto Market Compass 8 July 2024

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Ongoing profit-taking by large long-term holders such as German government entities or the Mt Gox trustee will likely continue to be a headwind over the coming weeks

• Last week, cryptoassets continued to underperform on account ongoing profit-taking by large long-term holders

• Our in-house “Cryptoasset Sentiment Indicator” has declined sharply and signals bearish sentiment again

• Ongoing profit-taking by large long-term holders such as German government entities or the Mt Gox trustee will likely continue to be a headwind over the coming weeks

Chart of the Week

Performance

Last week, cryptoassets continued to underperform on account ongoing profit-taking by large long-term holders. This is also evident in the high readings of long-term holder’s (LTH) realized profits for Bitcoin (Chart-of-the-Week).

In this context, large long-term holders such as German government entities or the Mt Gox trustee continue to distribute their long-term holdings that they acquired many years back.

More recently, the Mt Gox trustee has also started distributing bitcoins. The trustee sold around 2.7k BTC on Friday alone last week. At the time of writing, the Mt Gox trustee still controls around 139k BTC according to data provided by Glassnode. Another major force of selling was the German government that sold around 6.4k BTC over the past week. This particular government entity still controls around 39.8k BTC.

Looking ahead, we still anticipate this amount of selling to continue to be a headwind for the overall market. In our latest monthly report we also wrote:

“Continued selling from US and German government entities could likely exert continued selling pressure on the market over the coming weeks.”

It may take time for the market to fully digest this level of selling, as opined by some influential market observers. This is due to the fact that much of the legacy supply that was accumulated by government entities (US and Germany), large trusts (GBTC) or legacy exchanges (Mt Gox) over the past years is currently being distributed again.

That being said, our Cryptoasset Sentiment Index has touched a fresh 2-months low again and is currently signalling relatively bearish sentiment and positioning again.

In general, among the top 10 crypto assets, TRON, Toncoin, and Solana were the relative outperformers.

Overall, altcoin outperformance vis-à-vis Bitcoin has significantly reversed again compared to the prior week, with only 20% of our tracked altcoins managing to outperform Bitcoin on a weekly basis. Ethereum also underperformed Bitcoin on a weekly basis.

Sentiment

Our in-house “Cryptoasset Sentiment Index” has declined sharply and signals a bearish sentiment again.

At the moment, only 5 out of 15 indicators are above their short-term trend.

Last week, there were significant reversals to the downside in the BTC Short-Term Holder Net Unrealized Profit/Loss ratio (STH-NUPL) and the Crypto Fear & Greed Index.

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index still signals a “Fear” level of sentiment as of this morning.

Performance dispersion among cryptoassets has reversed to the downside again. This means that altcoins are increasingly becoming correlated with the performance of Bitcoin again.

Altcoin outperformance vis-à-vis Bitcoin has also significantly reversed compared to the week prior, with only around 20% of our tracked altcoins outperforming Bitcoin on a weekly basis, which is consistent with the fact that Ethereum also underperformed Bitcoin last week.

In general, increasing (decreasing) altcoin outperformance tends to be a sign of increasing (decreasing) risk appetite within cryptoasset markets and the latest altcoin underperformance could signal declining appetite for risk at the moment.

In contrast, sentiment in traditional financial markets rebounded from its multi-year lows along with a rebound in market-based global growth expectations, judging by our own measure of Cross Asset Risk Appetite (CARA).

Fund Flows

Despite the weak price action last week, fund flows into global crypto ETPs continued to be positive and even started to accelerate again. Global crypto ETPs saw around +695.9 mn USD in net inflows across all types of cryptoassets which is significantly higher than the +38.2 mn USD in net inflows recorded the prior week.

Global Bitcoin ETPs saw net inflows of +632.7 mn USD last week, of which +238.5 mn USD in net inflows were related to US spot Bitcoin ETFs.
Last week also saw significant inflows into Hong Kong Bitcoin ETFs with +247.2 mn USD which was even slightly higher than US spot Bitcoin ETF net inflows.

Outflows from the ETC Group Physical Bitcoin ETP (BTCE) continued last week with net outflows equivalent to -42.0 mn USD while the ETC Group Core Bitcoin ETP (BTC1) saw neither in- nor outflows last week.

The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) continued to see net outflows, with around -87.9 mn USD last week.

Meanwhile, global Ethereum ETPs saw a reversal in flows last week compared to the week prior with positive net inflows totalling +7.7 mn USD. Interestingly, Hong Kong Ethereum ETFs neither recorded in- nor outflows last week (+/- 0 mn USD).

The ETC Group Physical Ethereum ETP (ZETH) saw minor net outflows of around -1.7 mn USD and the ETC Group Ethereum Staking ETP (ET32) showed sticky AuM last week (+/- 0 mn USD in flows).

In contrast, altcoin ETPs ex Ethereum continued to attract an even higher amount of capital of around +20.1 mn USD last week.

The same is true for Thematic & basket crypto ETPs which also continued to see positive net inflows of +35.4 mn USD, based on our calculations. The ETC Group MSCI Digital Assets Select 20 ETP (DA20) saw neither in- nor outflows last week.

Meanwhile, global crypto hedge funds have continued to increase their market exposure even further into the most recent correction. The 20-days rolling beta of global crypto hedge funds’ performance increased to around 0.66 (up from 0.57) per yesterday’s close.

On-Chain Data

Bitcoin on-chain data currently show a significant level of “pain” among short-term holders, which renders a short-term bottom very likely.

For instance, the short-term holder net unrealized profit-loss ratio (STH-NUPL) is currently at -14.6% meaning that the average short-term holder has around -14.6% in unrealized losses. This metric is already at the lowest level since November 2022 – when FTX collapsed!

Furthermore, the short-term holder spent output profit ratio (STH-SOPR) has declined to 0.957 last Friday – the lowest level since end of 2022 as well.

Short-term holders are investors with a holding period of less than 155 days.
At the time of writing, the average cost basis of short-term holders lies at around 64k USD per bitcoin according to data provided by Glassnode which means that short-term holders are significantly “under water” with their holdings. It is no surprise that short-term holders have continued to realize large amounts of losses into the most recent correction.

This seems to have exacerbated the most recent downside price correction.
That being said, profit-taking by long-term holders is currently the dominant force that is exerting selling pressure on the market.

This is also evident in the high levels of long-term holders’ (LTH) realised gains for bitcoin (Chart-of-the-Week).

In this context, large long-term holders such as the German government or the Mt Gox trustee continue to distribute their long-term holdings acquired many years ago.

Recently, the Mt. Gox trustee has also started to distribute bitcoins. On Friday of last week alone, the trustee sold around 2.7k BTC. At the time of writing, the Mt. Gox trustee still controls around 139k BTC, according to Glassnode. Another major selling force was the German government, which sold around 6.4k BTC last week. This particular government entity still controls around 39.8k BTC.

Looking ahead, we still anticipate this amount of selling to continue to be a headwind for the overall market as opined in our latest monthly report.

Besides, the hash ribbon signal also implies that BTC miners still remain under economic pressure which signals a heightened risk of continued distributions from these entities as well.

Moreover, the market lacks new catalysts that would lead to a significant influx of new short-term investors as shown by the Short- to Long-Term Realized Value (SLRV) Ribbon signal.

Despite the fact that we saw a positive reversal of global net inflows into Bitcoin ETPs over the past 2 weeks, net buying volumes on BTC spot exchanges continue to be negative, highlighting the high selling pressure from other types of investors.

On a positive note, this high degree of selling implies that sellers could become exhausted relatively soon, which would lead to a stabilization in prices.

Futures, Options & Perpetuals

Last week, both BTC futures and perpetual open interest declined amid an increase in forced long liquidations.

Nonetheless, perpetual funding rates mostly remained positive throughout last week. When the funding rate is positive (negative), long (short) positions periodically pay short (long) positions. A positive funding rate tends to be a sign of bullish sentiment in perpetual futures markets.

The 3-months annualized BTC futures basis rate declined significantly to only around 8.0% p.a.

BTC options’ open interest increased significantly last week after the large expiries at the end of June. This increase in open interest was largely driven by an increase
in relative put open interest consistent with the recent price correction as BTC option traders increased their downside bets/hedges. However, the aggregate put-call open interest ratio still remains significantly lower than during the highs observed in March.

That being said, both the spike in put-call volume ratios as well as 1-month 25-delta option skew signalled a significant increase in demand for downside protection.
BTC option implied volatilities have also increased slightly during the latest leg down. Implied volatilities of 1-month ATM Bitcoin options are currently at around 50.5% p.a. The term structure of volatility is also inverted now, with short-dated options trading at significantly higher implied volatilities than longer-dated options. This tends to be a sign of overextended bearishness in the options market.

Bottom Line

• Last week, cryptoassets continued to underperform on account ongoing profit-taking by large long-term holders

• Our in-house “Cryptoasset Sentiment Indicator” has declined sharply and signals bearish sentiment again

• Ongoing profit-taking by large long-term holders such as German government entities or the Mt Gox trustee will likely continue to be a headwind over the coming weeks

To read our Crypto Market Compass in full, please click the button below:

This is not investment advice. Capital at risk. Read the full disclaimer

© ETC Group 2019-2024 | All rights reserved

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Bitcoin Survives Bear Trap

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Bitcoin has witnessed some heavy price turbulence after breaking the $71K mark in early June. Since then, it lost almost 21% in value scraping the key level of $55K in the first week of July.

Bitcoin has witnessed some heavy price turbulence after breaking the $71K mark in early June. Since then, it lost almost 21% in value scraping the key level of $55K in the first week of July.

Figure 1 – Bitcoin Price

Source: Glassnode

However, since last Friday, Bitcoin has gained $7K and is now trading around the $64K mark. But why has it been such a turbulent time for Bitcoin?

Factors Contributing to the Selling Pressure

• Bitcoin Miner Activity

• German Government Sell-Offs

• Mt. Gox Repayment Program & Bitcoin Exchange Liquidity

Bitcoin Miner Activity

The BTC selling pressure was earmarked by miner activity, after selling 30K BTC in June. This sell-off marked miners’ BTC reserves at the lowest in a decade, just over 1.8K BTC.

Figure 2 – Bitcoin Miner Balance’

Source: Glassnode

Miners have however reduced their activity on-exchange, which should calm fears further. In June, miners were moving an average of around 50 BTC or just under $3M per day to exchanges, which has now slowed down, as shown below.

Figure 3 – Bitcoin Transfer Volume from Miners to Exchanges

Source: Glassnode

On top of that, on-chain data shows the 30-day moving average of Bitcoin’s hash rate is starting to close the gap with the 60-day moving average, for the first time since May. This indicates miners are experiencing lower income stress, which typically signals a market bottom.

Figure 4 – Bitcoin’s Hash Ribbon Indicator

Source: Glassnode

As a result, miner reserves have slowly started to pick back up, as shown in the first figure. This could indicate that the miner sell-offs post-halving, due to reduced profitability, have tapered off which is another reason to be cautiously positive.

German Government Sell-Offs

The German Goverment had been in the process of completing the sale of 50K BTC seized from a pirating website, Movie2k, which was worth approximately $3B when the sell-offs started.

Figure 5 – German Government Holdings

Source: @obchakevich on Dune Analytics

Bitcoin had a shaky June and July. However, in the week Germany sold almost 80% of their holdings, 40K BTC or $2.2B worth, Bitcoin’s price remained fairly resilient, a testament to its strength in adverse market conditions. That being said, according to data from Arkham Intelligence, the German Government engaged via OTC trades, to minimize potential slippage and market impact.

Figure 6 – Bitcoin Price (7 July – 14 July)

Source: Glassnode

Nevertheless, the conclusion of these sell-offs is positive for Bitcoin, as it removes a significant dark cloud from the market, and demonstrates the asset’s resilience.

Mt. Gox Repayment Program

However, Bitcoin faces selling pressure due to the upcoming Mt. Gox repayment program. Starting in July 2024, Mt. Gox began repaying approximately $9B worth of assets to its creditors, who have been waiting for over a decade since the exchange’s collapse in 2014.

Figure 7 – Mt. Gox Holdings

Source: @21co on Dune Analytics

Of the approximate 142K BTC held by Mt. Gox, 139K BTC is left to be reimbursed, equating to approximately 2% being paid back as of today, indicating a slow sale rate. However, yesterday Mt. Gox shuffled almost 96K BTC between their wallets, which contributed to the renewed FUD, as they prepare to distribute the reimbursements. While the repayment sum is very large, it is unlikely that these creditors will sell off their BTC immediately, given their long-term belief in the crypto industry given their involvement a decade ago, and the potential capital gains tax implications associated with the asset. The selling pressure is further diluted by the fact that reimbursements will likely occur on different days across different exchanges.

Bitcoin Exchange Liquidity

Despite, Bitcoin’s apparent survival. Let’s take a closer look at how the remaining BTC could affect the market. 139K BTC or $8.93B worth remains for Mt. Gox to restore to creditors, who may end up selling their assets. To gauge the market impact of this, it may help to look at Bitcoin’s liquidity on exchange. Presuming they aim to sell their BTC, the sell-offs will likely occur by trading with a fiat pair (BTC/USD) or a stablecoin pair (BTC/USDT or BTC/USDC). The top 5 most liquid exchanges are listed below, with their respective liquidity depths in dollar and BTC terms (assuming July’s average price of $59K).

Figure 8 – Centralized Exchange % Depth

Source: Coingecko

As to not mitigate the market impact, the sell-offs are likely to occur across several exchanges. The five most liquid exchanges need around $72M outflows, on a given day to have a 2% downward price swing. The potential sell-offs are contingent on creditors finally receiving their assets from Mt. Gox, which is happening very slowly. Furthermore, it is doubtful that once received, they will sell all their BTC immediately, and as such any price action is largely resulting from the negative market sentiment associated with this event.

On-Chain Metrics

Despite the negativity surrounding the market, looking on-chain could help uncover dynamics that might make investors feel positive, and we propose 3 different indicators to look at.

The Market Value to Realized Value Ratio (MVRV) is a metric that assesses Bitcoin’s market valuation relative to its realized value, helping identify market tops and bottoms.

    A high MVRV indicates overvaluation and a potential market top, while a low score indicates undervaluation and a potential market bottom.

    Figure 9 – Bitcoin MVRV Score

    Source: Glassnode

    The current MVRV is around levels seen at the end of December 2020, just before Bitcoin rallied from $11K to around the $60K mark. This is also similar to the levels seen towards the end of last year, before the ETF craze which drove Bitcoin to a new all-time high of $75K in early March. Given these historical precedents, this MVRV level suggests a potential for significant upside, making it an opportune time for investors to consider entering the market.

    Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) indicates the difference between investors’ unrealized profits and losses to assess market sentiment, with positive values suggesting profit-dominant sentiment and negative values indicating loss-dominant sentiment.

      This metric is another reason for positivity. Currently, Bitcoin’s NUPL is in the optimism/denial phase, indicating moderate unrealized profits among investors. This suggests that market sentiment is cautiously optimistic, after recent price stagnations led NUPL to drop, and belief to be wiped away. That being said, this is a healthy consolidation for the asset and potentially allows it to spur on.

      Figure 10 – Bitcoin Net Unrealized Profit/Loss

      Source: Glassnode

      1. Fear and Greed Index measures market sentiment, with values ranging from 0 (extreme fear) to 100 (extreme greed). It helps investors gauge whether the market is overly bearish or bullish, indicating potential buying or selling opportunities.

      Figure 11 – Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index

      Source: Glassnode

      The Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index was often in the ‘Fear’ region during June and early July. However, this was a positive sign, as it was near levels we had not seen since September 2023, when the asset was trading at $26K, which preceded a historical price rally. Over the weekend, the Fear and Greed Index sprung to Greed levels, suggesting we might be on track for another parabolic run.

      Conclusions

      • Bitcoin’s turbulence has stemmed from significant selling pressures, particularly the Mt. Gox repayment program.

      o The impact of these sell-offs is moderated by Bitcoin’s strong exchange liquidity and potential ETF inflows.
      • The dark cloud of the German Government sell-offs is out of the way.

      • On-chain metrics suggest the potential for a bullish reversal, indicating now might be an opportune time for investors to consider entering the market.

      For investors looking to invest in Bitcoin via a regulated investment vehicle, the following ETPs are available on the European market:

      Figure 12 – Top 10 European Bitcoin Products by Assets Under Management Product Ticker

      Source: Bloomberg, Data as of July 16th, 2024.

      Avg. Daily Spread 20D (bps): refers to the best daily average bid/ask spread over the last 20 days across European exchanges.

      This Week’s Calendar

      Source: Forex Factory, 21Shares

      Research Newsletter

      Each week the 21Shares Research team will publish our data-driven insights into the crypto asset world through this newsletter. Please direct any comments, questions, and words of feedback to research@21shares.com

      Disclaimer

      The information provided does not constitute a prospectus or other offering material and does not contain or constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy securities in any jurisdiction. Some of the information published herein may contain forward-looking statements. Readers are cautioned that any such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks and uncertainties and that actual results may differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements as a result of various factors. The information contained herein may not be considered as economic, legal, tax or other advice and users are cautioned to base investment decisions or other decisions solely on the content hereof.

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      00X0 ETC investerar i industrimetaller och hedgas i euro

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      WisdomTree Industrial Metals - EUR Daily Hedged (00X0 ETC) är en fullständigt säkerställd, UCITS-godkänd Exchange Traded Commodity (ETC) utformad för att ge investerare en total avkastningsexponering mot Industrial Metals terminskontrakt som valutasäkras i EUR.

      WisdomTree Industrial Metals – EUR Daily Hedged (00X0 ETC) är en fullständigt säkerställd, UCITS-godkänd Exchange Traded Commodity (ETC) utformad för att ge investerare en total avkastningsexponering mot Industrial Metals terminskontrakt som valutasäkras i EUR.

      Denna ETC syftar till att replikera Bloomberg Industrial Metals Sub Euro Hedged Daily Total Return Index (BUINDET) genom att spåra Bloomberg Industrial Metals Sub Euro Hedged Daily Excess Return Index och tillhandahålla ränteintäkterna justerade för att återspegla avgifter och kostnader förknippade med produkten. Till exempel, om Bloomberg Industrial Metals Sub Euro Hedged Daily Total Return Index stiger med 1 % under en dag, kommer ETC att stiga med 1 %, exklusive avgifter. Men om Bloomberg Industrial Metals Sub Euro Hedged Daily Total Return Index faller med 1 % under en dag, kommer ETCen att falla med 1 %, exklusive avgifter.

      Index

      Bloomberg Industrial Metals Subindex Euro Hedged Daily Total Return, indexet är utformat för att återspegla rörelsen i priset på terminskontrakten för industriella metallråvaror (som kontinuerligt rullas enligt ett förutbestämt rullande schema) som används i Bloomberg Commodity IndexSM samt att införliva en valutasäkring mot rörelser i EUR/ USD växelkurs. Valutasäkringen ombalanseras dagligen.

      Ett terminskontrakt är ett avtal om att köpa en vara till ett överenskommet pris, där leverans och betalning ska ske vid en bestämd tidpunkt i framtiden. Terminskontrakt avyttras i allmänhet strax innan kontraktets löptid löper ut och nya kontrakt ingås för att undvika att ta emot faktisk leverans av varan i fråga (en process som kallas ”rullande”), så att kontinuerlig exponering för råvaran upprätthålls.

      Kontrakten som köps kan vara dyrare än kontrakten som säljs, vilket skulle få en investerare i råvaruterminer att göra en ytterligare förlust. Denna marknadstrend kallas ”contango”. Alternativt kan kontrakten som köps vara billigare än de som säljs, vilket skulle resultera i en ytterligare vinst, känd som ”backwardation”. Denna prisskillnad kallas vanligtvis ”rullavkastning”. Eftersom rullavkastningen ingår i beräkningen av indexvärdet kan det därför ha en positiv eller negativ inverkan på indexets värde beroende på om det finns contango eller bakåtgång. ETC kommer också att påverkas eftersom dess värde baseras på indexets värde.

      Handla 00X0 ETC

      WisdomTree Industrial Metals – EUR Daily Hedged (00X0 ETC) är en europeisk börshandlad råvara. Denna ETC handlas på flera olika börser, till exempel Deutsche Boerse Xetra och Borsa Italiana. Av den anledningen förekommer olika kortnamn på samma börshandlade fond.

      Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETP genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel DEGIRONordnet, Aktieinvest och Avanza.

      Börsnoteringar

      BörsValutaKortnamnISIN
      Borsa ItalianaEUREIMTJE00B78NPW60
      XetraEUR00X0JE00B78NPW60

      Största innehav

      RåvaraVikt %
      COMEX Copper35.60%
      LME Aluminium26.60%
      LME Zinc17.50%
      LME Nickel13.68%
      LME Lead6.62%

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      AINJ ETP spårar INJ och skapar staking intäkter

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      21Shares Injective Staking ETP (AINJ ETP) med ISIN CH1360612134 är 100 procent fysiskt uppbackad. 21Shares Injective Staking ETP (AINJ) spårar prestanda för INJ samtidigt som den skapar staking intäkter som återinvesteras i ETP för förbättrad prestanda. Medan blockchain-nätverk vanligtvis är siloförsedda, stöder Injective Protocol sömlösa interaktioner över stora nätverk, vilket möjliggör ett unikt utbud av finansiella produkter och tjänster. 21Shares Injective Staking ETP erbjuder ett enkelt, reglerat och transparent sätt att dra nytta av nätverkets växande betydelse inom decentraliserad finans (DeFi).

      21Shares Injective Staking ETP (AINJ ETP) med ISIN CH1360612134 är 100 procent fysiskt uppbackad. 21Shares Injective Staking ETP (AINJ) spårar prestanda för INJ samtidigt som den skapar staking intäkter som återinvesteras i ETP för förbättrad prestanda. Medan blockchain-nätverk vanligtvis är siloförsedda, stöder Injective Protocol sömlösa interaktioner över stora nätverk, vilket möjliggör ett unikt utbud av finansiella produkter och tjänster. 21Shares Injective Staking ETP erbjuder ett enkelt, reglerat och transparent sätt att dra nytta av nätverkets växande betydelse inom decentraliserad finans (DeFi).

      Fördelar

      Innovativ teknik: Injective erbjuder ett avancerat DeFi-ekosystem med funktioner som noll gasavgifter och omedelbar slutgiltig transaktion, vilket förbättrar användarupplevelsen på finansiella kryptoapplikationer.

      Staking med lätthet: Med AINJ kan investerare få tillgång till r med fördelen av professionell riskhantering samtidigt som de undviker behovet av att direkt låsa tillgångar.

      100 % fysiskt uppbackad: 21Shares Injective Staking ETP är 100 % fysiskt backad av den underliggande INJ och förvaras i kylförvaring hos ett institutionellt förvaringsinstitut, vilket erbjuder ett bättre skydd än depåalternativ som är tillgängliga för enskilda investerare.

      Nyckelinformation

      Handla AINJ ETP

      21Shares Injective Staking ETP (AINJ ETP) är en börshandlad kryptovaluta (ETP) som handlas på Euronext Amsterdam.

      Euronext Amsterdam är en marknad som få svenska banker och nätmäklare erbjuder access till, men DEGIRO gör det.

      Börsnoteringar

      BörsValutaKortnamn
      Euronext AmsterdamUSDAINJ NA
      Euronext ParisEURAINJ FR

      Produktinformation

      Namn21Shares Injective Staking ETP
      Lanseringsdatum9 juli 2024
      Emittent21Shares AG
      Förvaltningsarvode2,5%

      Handelssymboler

      KortnamnAINJ
      Valor136061213
      ISINCH1360612134
      ReutersAINJ.S
      WKNA4AHQC
      BloombergAINJ BW

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