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Gold Miners: Outperformance to Continue

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Gold Miners: Outperformance to Continue

Gold Miners: Outperformance to Continue . With gold mining stocks trading at a 58% discount to 2011 levels, gold miners’ shares remain highly undervalued relative to fundamentals in our view. Although reserve depletion is an issue that still needs to be addressed for sustainable long-term growth of the sector, cost management has substantially improved miners’ profitability. With global growth finally starting to gain momentum and seasonality of gold demand historically buoying gold miners’ shares in the third quarter, we believe now may be a good time to raise exposure to gold miners. We maintain our positive view on gold miners and target broad miner valuations to move back to around 2x book value over the next few months, providing potential 30% upside for the DAXglobal Gold Miners Index.

  • Although gold miners have rallied 26% since the beginning of the year1, on a price-to-book value basis gold miners’ shares are still trading 33% below their 5-year average.
  • Gold miners’ underlying fundamentals are finally improving, with costs falling 18% in Q1 2014 compared to 2013 levels.
  • Historically, the third quarter (Q3) has been a strong period of performance for gold miners given the seasonality of gold demand.

An additional supporting factor is the rebound of key leading indicators of global growth, which have historically correlated strongly with broad gold miner share performance, particularly relative to the gold price.

MORE UPSIDE FOR GOLD MINERS’ SHARES

After rising by over 25% since the beginning of the year, gold miners’ shares have recently returned to trade above their book value, according to our calculations (Figure 1). However, their price to book value remains 33% below their 5-year average, potentially setting a medium-term base for the share price. In our opinion, no further write-downs are to be expected in the near future, following a 10% decrease in total reserves and resources in 2013 from a year earlier as miners reassessed their gold price assumptions. With a production-weighted average gold price assumption of US$1,3262, miners’ assets appear to be fairly valued. We believe gold miners’ shares are still undervalued relative to fundamentals and anticipate they will get back to trade around 2x the book value of assets. All things being equal, this means that prices have the potential to rise by 30% in the next few months, to the levels last seen in March 2013

Goldmfig1

MARKET TIMING APPEARS FAVOURABLE

In terms of timing, we think Q3 may be a good time for investors to look at gold miners due to the seasonality of their returns. On average over the past twelve years, the third quarter has seen gold miners’ shares returning substantially higher gains than in the other quarters (Figure 2). This is particularly true when the OECD Lead Indicator is in expansionary territory. This has to do with the seasonality in gold demand, linked to the Indian wedding and festival season which starts at the end of September. Relative performance of gold mining stocks versus the gold price has varied widely over time, depending on the market environment, risk appetite and other fundamental factors such as political and regulatory events, company-specific developments and macro issues. However, historically, gold miners have tended to outperform gold when the global business activity, as measured by the OECD World Lead Indicator, has been high and rising. Conversely, gold has tended to outperform gold miners when growth has been slowing and the global economy has been in a downturn, as during the most recent financial crisis (Figure 3). With global growth finally starting to gain momentum, we expect the correlation between miners’ shares and gold to reduce and gold miners to start to outperform gold.

Goldmfig3

IMPROVING FUNDAMENTALS BUT LONG-TERM ISSUES REMAIN

While costs remain a key concern, miners have made good progress in containing expenses and closing down loss-making mines. All-in costs in Q1 2014 were 18% lower than in 2013. However, this was achieved mainly through a reduction in expansionary capital expenditure which is now less than half, on average, than the amount allocated back in 2012 (Figure 4). Expansionary capex and expenses include all costs related to projects that would significantly increase the net present value of existing mines and that are not related to current production, including reserve substitution. While in the short term cost containment is likely to have a positive impact on miners’ bottom line, in the long run this might be detrimental for miners’ production, as depleted reserves are not replaced. This trend is becoming increasingly apparent, as production has been falling at a compounded annual rate of 2% since 2010 while total reserves and resources have lost on average 3% per year over the same period.

We maintain our positive view on gold miners’ shares in the shortterm and believe they will continue to perform strongly over the next few months due to historically low valuations, seasonality factors and rising global growth. However, if the reserve depletion issue is not addressed aggressively in the coming months and years, gold miners longer-term prospects will remain muted.

Goldmfig5

Important Information

This communication has been provided by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (the ”FCA”).

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Att tajma marknaden är en förlorande strategi

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När marknaderna blir volatila kan det verka lockande att tajma marknaden. Men att försöka det har visat sig omöjligt och kan bli ett kostsamt misstag.

När marknaderna blir volatila kan det verka lockande att tajma marknaden. Men att försöka det har visat sig omöjligt och kan bli ett kostsamt misstag.

Att titta på det långsiktiga mönstret för tjur- och björnmarknader kan vara frestande för vissa investerare. Varför inte försöka tajma marknaden och undvika dessa nedgångar? Skulle det inte vara bättre än att åka ut? Tyvärr är det inte så lätt.

Marknadscykler – Hypotetisk tillväxt på 10 000 USD investerad i S&P 500 Index (1951-2022)

Tidigare resultat garanterar inte framtida resultat. Index är ohanterat och inte tillgängliga för direktinvesteringar. Endast i illustrativt syfte. Datakällor: Morningstar och Hartford Funds, 2/23. www.hartfordfunds.com

Att undvika nedgångar på marknaden kan också innebära att man går miste om uppgångar. 78 % av aktiemarknadens bästa dagar inträffar under en nedgång eller under de första två månaderna av en återhämtande marknad. Om du missade marknadens 10 bästa dagar under de senaste 30 åren, skulle din avkastning ha halverats. Och att missa de enda bästa 30 dagarna skulle ha minskat din avkastning med 83 %.

Bra dagar händer på dåliga marknader

Att missa marknadens bästa dagar har varit dyrt

Tidigare resultat garanterar inte framtida resultat. Index är ohanterat och inte tillgängliga för direktinvesteringar. Endast i illustrativt syfte. Datakällor: Ned Davis Research, Morningstar och Hartford Funds, 22/2. www.hartfordfunds.com

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OLJJ ETP ger tre gånger den omvända utvecklingen för europeiska bankaktier

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WisdomTree EURO STOXX Banks 3x Daily Short (OLJJ ETP) är en fullständigt säkerställd, UCITS-godkänd börshandlad produkt (ETP) utformad för att ge investerare en hävstångsexponering mot EURO STOXX-bankerna. Denna ETP följer EURO STOXX Banks Daily Short 3 EUR Bruttoavkastningsindex (SX7EGT3S), vilket ger en totalavkastning som består av -3 gånger den dagliga utvecklingen av EURO STOXX Banks EUR Bruttoavkastningsindex, justerat för att återspegla avgifter såväl som kostnader och intäkter som är inneboende i att korta aktier.

WisdomTree EURO STOXX Banks 3x Daily Short (OLJJ ETP) är en fullständigt säkerställd, UCITS-godkänd börshandlad produkt (ETP) utformad för att ge investerare en hävstångsexponering mot EURO STOXX-bankerna. Denna ETP följer EURO STOXX Banks Daily Short 3 EUR Bruttoavkastningsindex (SX7EGT3S), vilket ger en totalavkastning som består av -3 gånger den dagliga utvecklingen av EURO STOXX Banks EUR Bruttoavkastningsindex, justerat för att återspegla avgifter såväl som kostnader och intäkter som är inneboende i att korta aktier.

Till exempel, om EURO STOXX Banks EUR Bruttoavkastningsindex stiger med 1 % under en dag, kommer ETP att falla med 3 %, exklusive avgifter. Men om EURO STOXX Banks EUR Bruttoavkastningsindex faller med 1 % under en dag, kommer ETP att stiga med 3 %, exklusive avgifter.

EURO STOXX Banker Daily Short 3 EUR Bruttoavkastningsindex

EURO STOXX Banks Daily Short 3 EUR bruttoavkastningsindex syftar till att replikera den omvända dagliga utvecklingen av EURO STOXX Banks bruttoavkastningsindex multiplicerat dagligen med tre och justerat för att återspegla vissa inneboende kostnader för att upprätthålla de hävstångspositioner som krävs för att uppnå detta mål.

EURO STOXX Banks Net Return Index representerar de största företagen som tillhör banksektorn i följande länder i euroområdet: Österrike, Belgien, Finland, Frankrike, Tyskland, Irland, Italien, Luxemburg, Nederländerna, Portugal och Spanien.

Handla OLJJ ETP

WisdomTree EURO STOXX Banks 3x Daily Short (OLJJ ETP) är en europeisk börshandlad produkt. Denna ETP handlas på flera olika börser, till exempel Borsa Italiana, Deutsche Boerse Xetra och London Stock Exchange. Av den anledningen förekommer olika kortnamn på samma börshandlade produkt.

Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETP genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel DEGIRONordnet, Aktieinvest och Avanza.

Börsnoteringar

BörsValutaKortnamnISIN
LSEGBx3BASXS2637076568
Borsa ItalianaEUR3BASXS2637076568
XetraEUROLJJXS2637076568

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Exciting New Crypto Investment Opportunities from 21Shares

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We're thrilled to announce the launch of three groundbreaking Exchange-Traded Products (ETPs). Introducing the 21Shares Immutable ETP, 21Shares Injective Staking ETP and 21Shares Sui Staking ETP. These innovative products expand our comprehensive suite of crypto ETPs, offering unique opportunities to diversify your exposure into the Digital Assets space.

We’re thrilled to announce the launch of three groundbreaking Exchange-Traded Products (ETPs). Introducing the 21Shares Immutable ETP, 21Shares Injective Staking ETP and 21Shares Sui Staking ETP. These innovative products expand our comprehensive suite of crypto ETPs, offering unique opportunities to diversify your exposure into the Digital Assets space.

Check out the factsheets on our newest ETP offerings below.

Name21Shares Immutable ETP
TickerAIMX
ISINCH1360612142
CCYUSD (Euronext Amsterdam) EUR (Euronext Paris)
Fee2,5%

Name21Shares Injective Staking ETP
TickerAINJ
ISINCH1360612134
CCYUSD (Euronext Amsterdam) EUR (Euronext Paris)
Fee2,5%
Name21Shares Sui Staking ETP
TickerASIU
ISINCH1360612159
CCYUSD (Euronext Amsterdam) EUR (Euronext Paris)
Fee2,5%

Why 21Shares ETPs?

• Staking involves locking specific cryptoassets to support the operation and security of a blockchain network, earning rewards in the process. By integrating staking rewards into the 21Shares ETPs, investors enjoy an additional income stream without having to keep their assets locked, enhancing overall returns while maintaining exposure to the respective underlying assets. This makes the 21Shares ETPs an even more attractive option for investors seeking to maximize their investment potential.

• Unprecedented Innovation: Our new ETPs represent a significant advancement in crypto investing. We continue to push the boundaries of what’s possible, providing you with cutting-edge products that leverage the latest in blockchain technology.

• Tactical Crypto Positioning: Our ETPs empower you to strategically position yourself in the rapidly evolving crypto market. Whether you aim to gain exposure to emerging blockchain protocols or diversify your portfolio with innovative assets, our products provide the necessary tools.

• Diverse Exposure: Targeted exposure to three dynamic blockchain projects:

Immutable is a Layer 2 scaling solution for Ethereum, enhancing your experience with fast, low-cost transactions. Partnered with big names like Ubisoft, Immutable offers access to over 200 blockchain-based games and NFTs, all without compromising speed or affordability. Over 100 games are currently being built on the platform, positioning Immutable as a leader in the crypto gaming industry.

Injective Protocol is a Layer 1 blockchain within the Cosmos ecosystem, specifically optimized for DeFi applications. It enables seamless cross-chain interactions with major networks like Ethereum and Solana, providing access to a unique range of financial products. With Injective, you can effortlessly trade major assets like tokenized derivatives, all while enjoying a streamlined and efficient trading experience.

Sui Network is a Layer 1 blockchain designed for high-speed, low-latency transactions, supporting a thriving ecosystem of decentralized applications (dApps). It leverages parallel processing to maintain low costs and high efficiency, while offering gas-less transactions where applications sponsor transaction fees on behalf of users. It also utilizes Meta’s programming language (MOVE) used to develop its abandoned stablecoin project (DIEM) which significantly reduces smart-contract risk. This makes Sui an ideal platform for innovative projects looking to deploy and scale seamlessly, ensuring smooth and cost-effective operations.

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