Nyheter
What is behind the rise of global bond yields?
Fixed Income Research – What is behind the rise of global bond yields?
Highlights
- The rise of US yields is driving up yields around the world.
- We expect higher volatility in global rates, amplified by geopolitical risks and commodity price movements.
- Structural headwinds and accommodative foreign monetary policies will likely limit the rise US yields over the medium term.
Since last November, investors’ sentiment has turned into ‘risk-on’ mode, favouring risky assets and equities relative to bonds. The rise in global yields and the steepening of yield curves has fuelled fears about the end of the 35-year bond bull market.
US yields drive up global yields
Since the early 2000s, the rise of global financial integration (i.e. the increase movements of capital between economies) has been reflected in higher co-movement in global yields. The chart below shows that almost 60% of the changes in bond yields of advanced economies (US, UK, Germany, and Japan) may be explained by a common factor.
´
The recent rise of global yields was predominantly driven by the rise of US yields along with cyclical factors (such as inflation, geopolitical risk and market volatility). However, we believe the ongoing accommodative monetary policies in Europe and Japan are likely to keep bond yields low in these regions, limiting the rise of US yields over the medium term.
What is driving US yields higher?
Long-term bonds yields are a function of the expected future short-term interest rates and the bond term premium that investors require to buy long-term bonds rather than roll over a series of shorter maturity bonds (i.e. inflation risk premium). The trend decline in global yields in the past 35 years mostly reflects the trend decline in bond term premium, while expected short-term interest rates fluctuate along with the changes in monetary policies.
Expected short-term rates started to increase in December 2013 when the Fed announced the tapering of its monthly bond purchases. However, US bond term premiums continued to decline and then slipped into negative territory in the first half of 2016 – for the first time in history. Deflation fears fuelled by the 70% drop of energy prices between 2014 and 2015 negatively affected inflation risk premiums, which declined from 0.5% to -0.5%. The sustained rebound in energy prices since February 2016 enabled inflation premiums to bounce back in Q4 2016, leaving both forces – bond term premium and expected short-term rates – trending upward. As a result, US long-term yields started to rise.
We evaluate the current mispricing of the 10yr treasury yield at 10bps tighter than its estimated value, based on the gap between the current 10yr yields and the sum of its two components. Thus, we believe most of the expected three rate hikes from the Fed this year have already been priced into 10yr yields. However, we expect higher rates volatility amplified by elevated volatility in energy prices and geopolitical risks. The MOVE index (an indicator of bond markets volatility) has increased 20% since Q4 2016.
Structural headwinds push yields down
The recent tightening in US financial conditions has been driven by the prospect of a better economic outlook in the US, reflecting current expectations of larger fiscal policy stimulus. In our opinion, the efficiency of the fiscal stimulus and its effects on bond markets will crucially depend on its fiscal neutrality and on its capacity to boost productivity and labour force growth. While the labour force growth has rebounded since 2012 under the accommodative monetary policy of the Fed, US productivity growth remain low from an historical perspective and continue to weigh on the economy.
Historical data reveals a strong positive relationship between investment and labour productivity.
The decline trend of investment in advanced economies can be partly explained by high credit constraints. The Debt Service Ratio (DSR) or the share of income used to service debt has not yet return to the pre-crisis levels, weighing on consumption and investment.
Subdued long-term economic trend limit yields’ rise
The gradual decline in the US GDP growth trend has led to gradual similar decline in the neutral real interest rate (i.e. the federal funds rate that neither stimulates nor restrains economic growth), which, in turn, has caused the decline in long-term interest rates. The US Congressional Budget Office (CBO) forecasts a stable 2% potential real GDP growth – the highest level of real GDP that can be sustained over the long term – for the US economy over the next 10 years. Accordingly, the neutral real interest rate for the US is expected to pick up and move in tandem with the potential real GDP. Although, both remain lower from a historical perspective.
This analysis is consistent with the gradual downward revision of long-run projections from the FOMC. From 2012 to today, the FOMC gradually revised downward its estimates for the long-run potential GDP growth rate and the terminal fed funds rate (or neutral interest rate) from 2.4% to 1.8% and from 4.25% to 3.00% respectively. Fed Chair Yellen reiterated in January1 that the Fed expects to increase Federal Funds rate target a few times a year until, by end of 2019, it is close to its longer-run neutral rate of 3%. Accordingly, we expect the Fed to hike rates three times this year.
We expect the trend rise of the US yields to be gradual over the medium term toward 2019 amid higher volatility. The upside risks to this view would come from a significant and quicker-than-expected rebound in productivity growth and inflation.
For more information contact:
ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E info@etfsecurities.com
Important Information
The analyses in the above tables are purely for information purposes. They do not reflect the performance of any ETF Securities’ products . The futures and roll returns are not necessarily investable.
General
This communication has been provided by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (“ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (the “FCA”).
This communication is only targeted at qualified or professional investors
I en nyligen genomförd Coindesk-intervju lyfte Blackrock fram institutionaliseringen av tillgångsklassen eftersom de förväntar sig en ny våg av investerare, särskilt från stats- och pensionsfonder, som är redo att öka efterfrågan under de kommande månaderna. Som nämnts regelbundet för våra läsare, är denna dynamik precis vad vi förväntar oss och vi ser denna institutionalisering som en viktig drivkraft för kryptotillgångar som kryptoindex ETPer.
Utveckling (USD) i slutet av april 2024
Beta Index ETP – Nasdaq Crypto Index Europe ETP (HASH eller HDX1): April -16%, YTD +35% och 12m +87%.
Smart-Beta Index ETP – Crypto Momentum Factor Index ETP (HAMO eller HDXM): April -23%, YTD -3% och 12m +60%.
Marknadsuppdatering
Efter 7 månader av uppgångar i rad såg kryptomarknaden sin första nedgång sedan augusti 2023, med Nasdaq Crypto Index Europe (”NCIE”) som sjönk med 16% i april, men bibehöll en ökning med 35% för året. Trots globala geopolitiska utmaningar är utsikterna för kryptotillgångar fortsatt positiva, främst drivna av ett fortsatt institutionellt intresse.
April markerade den mycket efterlängtade bitcoin-halveringen, som såg att gruvbelöningarna halverades, vilket underströk dess utbud och efterfrågan. Historiska trender tyder på en effekt efter halvering, nu förstärkt av framsteg i amerikanska ETF-flöden. Vårt forskarteam har fördjupat sig djupare i detta fenomen i vår rapport: Hashdex Research – Bitcoin’s Halving: An investor’s guide.
NCIE i förhållande till andra tillgångsslag
Källa: Hashdex, per den 30/04/24.
I det globala sammanhanget stötte index över olika tillgångsklasser på en utmanande månad. Oro för potentiellt förlängda höga räntor i USA ledde till marknadsturbulens, vilket resulterade i negativa utfall över nästan alla index. Av särskild betydelse var S&P 500, som noterade en nedgång på över 4 % för månaden.
April månad
- Nasdaq Crypto Index Europé
Källa: Hashdex, per den 30/04/24.
Indexet påverkades övervägande av Bitcoin och Ethereum, och upplevde nedgångar på -13,4% respektive -18,6%. Samtidigt såg alla andra komponenter i NCIE fall över 24%. Uniswap, i synnerhet, drabbades av betydande turbulens efter ett meddelande från SEC:s Enforcement Division till Uniswap Labs, vilket resulterade i en brant minskning med 42 %.
- Crypto Momentum Factor Index:
Källa: Hashdex, per den 30/04/24.
In i maj, med sin månatliga ombalansering, lade Momentum Index till en ny tillgång: NEAR Protocol, en decentraliserad utvecklingsplattform som använder en Proof-of-Stake (PoS) konsensusmekanism, kommer att introducera en sönderdelad arkitektur för förbättrad transaktionskapacitet. Hittills har priset stigit med 68 % i år.
3 månaders daglig avkastning korrelation Nasdaq Crypto Index Europe vs S&P 500
Källa: Hashdex, per den 30/04/24.
Hashdex Nasdaq Crypto Index Europe ETP – dokumentation
ISIN: CH1184151731 / Tickers: HASH (SIX och Euronext) eller HDX1 (Xetra) – handlas i USD, EUR, CHF och GBP
Hashdex Crypto Momentum Factor ETP – dokumentation
ISIN: CH1218734544 / Tickers: HAMO (SIX och Euronext) eller HDXM (Xetra) – handlas i USD, EUR, CHF och GBP
• Bullish, Bearish, or Both? Macro Mayhem Leads to Bitcoin Volatility
• Bitcoin’s Institutional Embrace is Accelerating
• Beyond Borders and Banks: Stablecoins Proving their Market Viability
Macro Mayhem Leads to Bitcoin Volatility
Last week, Bitcoin navigated a wave of conflicting U.S. macroeconomic events. The FOMC press conference last Wednesday confirmed the Fed will sustain high interest rates at 5.25-5.5% as the challenge of achieving the inflation target persists. As shown in Figure 1, this initially triggered Bitcoin’s price to drop by 5.9% as investors sought the safety of fixed-income assets. Friday’s U.S. Jobs report reversed the negative sentiment from the FOMC meeting. The report revealed a disappointing labor market, with only 175,000 non-farm jobs added, as unemployment rose to 3.9%. This data fueled hopes for rate cuts, which bodes well for risk-on assets, which led to Bitcoin rebounding by 6.7% to ~$63,000 by week’s end.
Figure 1: Bitcoin 1 Week Price Performance (April 29, 2024 – May 6, 2024)
Source: TradingView
Looking ahead, several developments could provide tailwinds for Bitcoin. The upcoming Treasury buyback program, the first since 2002, is launching on May 29 and has several implications for the broader financial landscape. By conducting weekly bond buybacks of up to $2 billion, outstanding debt is reduced while liquidity is increased, which could allow capital to flow into riskier assets. The reduced bond supply also puts downward pressure on yields, potentially making Bitcoin more attractive.
The recent Treasury refinancing announcement also looks promising for Bitcoin. A lower target balance for the Treasury General Account (TGA) suggests the government needs to borrow less, which frees up capital. The impact could be compared to quantitative easing, instead of withdrawing liquidity from the market by selling new bonds, the Treasury effectively injects liquidity by not needing to borrow as much. This additional liquidity eventually reaches the banking system, potentially leading to easier access to credit and lower interest rates. As we have voiced throughout, this environment would benefit riskier assets like Bitcoin.
Despite the initial price drop triggered by the Fed’s hawkish stance on interest rates, Bitcoin’s resilience was evident in its subsequent rebound driven by a weakening labor market and the potential prospect of a dovish shift. As illustrated below, Bitcoin’s funding rate is now similar to when it was trading at around $29,000, which signals a healthy market adjustment, shedding excess leverage. Looking ahead, the upcoming Treasury actions will undoubtedly affect U.S. liquidity and interest rate levels, which are key to Bitcoin’s performance and will be closely monitored in the coming weeks.
Figure 2: Bitcoin’s Funding Rate
Source: Glassnode
Bitcoin’s Institutional Embrace is Accelerating
Fueled by the U.S. Bitcoin ETF launch, the institutional adoption of Bitcoin is accelerating. A staggering $175 billion is estimated to be held by ETFs, countries, and public and private companies, representing roughly 15% of the total Bitcoin supply. While miniscule compared to the U.S. launch, Hong Kong’s Bitcoin ETFs further exemplify this trend, accumulating 4.2K BTC, or nearly $270 million, within their first week of trading. This showcases the growing appetite for the asset, however the hunger for Bitcoin is not limited to Hong Kong. Ovata Capital Management’s $60 million allocation into the U.S. spot ETFs underscores this trend, which is set to continue as the May 15 deadline for 13F filings approaches, which may reveal previously undisclosed positions held by institutions.
Recent disclosures by BNY Mellon and BNP Paribas, along with Swiss funds Bellecapital International and Lugano Financial Advisors, provide further evidence of Bitcoin’s institutionalization. Moreover, according to BlackRock, the world’s largest sovereign wealth funds (SWFs), including Norway’s $1.6 trillion fund, Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund, and Kuwait’s Investment Authority, are re-initiating discussions around Bitcoin. The SWF industry is valued at $11.6 trillion, therefore even a moderate allocation into the asset could see demand catapult to new levels, and provide a tipping point for broader adoption. Importantly, it is becoming more difficult to discount the asset – Bitcoin’s unique profile as both a risk-on and risk-off asset is becoming increasingly relevant given the complex macroeconomic landscape.
Further, Bitcoin’s adoption is transcending passive investment strategies. For instance, fintech giant Nubank, housing 80 million users, now offers crypto deposits and withdrawals, aiming to bridge the gap between traditional finance and crypto in Latin America. Lastly, Microstrategy, synonymous with their commitment to Bitcoin, are pushing the boundaries further by building an identity solution on the Ordinals network. This exemplifies the use of Bitcoin beyond a decentralized payment system, a notion we have echoed in the past weeks as Bitcoin continues to evolve beyond its original purpose.
Finally, the coming weeks promise further clues on the US economic trajectory and Bitcoin institutional adoption. There are eight Fed speaker events this week, and while they don’t directly address crypto, they often offer valuable insights into the current economic conditions. This, coupled with the turbulence expected during Q1 earnings season, could create volatility in equity markets, which may spill over to crypto as investors react accordingly.
Beyond Borders and Banks: Stablecoins Proving their Market Viability
After a six-year hiatus, Stripe is re-entering the crypto industry by enabling customers to accept stablecoins for online payments. Stripe was among the pioneers in integrating Bitcoin back in 2014. However, they ceased support in 2018 due to Bitcoin’s prolonged processing times and high transaction costs, which didn’t present a significant improvement over its traditional counterpart. Since then, the industry has undergone a major transformation, with the emergence of numerous smart-contract platforms and scaling efforts, enhancing the potential of crypto’s infrastructure to offer a superior user experience.
For instance, Stripe’s co-founder showcased a $100 USDC payment using Solana at the company’s annual conference. The demo corroborated how the payment was processed in less than a second instead of days while incurring $0.0037 in network fees, a cost reduction of almost 800-fold compared to a credit card. This is a testament to the advancements achieved by the latest generation of platforms, such as Solana, which addressed some of the drawbacks, like high transaction costs and lengthy processing times, while demonstrating their efficacy for use cases requiring a high volume of interactions, such as payments.
To that end, Stripe will begin supporting USDC payments through Ethereum, Solana, and Polygon. This integration marks a significant milestone, given Stripe’s substantial 35% market share in the payments industry. However, it’s even more crucial as users can seamlessly leverage the efficiencies of crypto’s infrastructure, ensuring reduced transaction costs and notably swifter processing times while remaining unaware of the use of blockchain technology in the backend. This mirrors how users are often unaware of the payment infrastructure their preferred fintech apps utilize. At 21Shares, we firmly believe that this kind of seamless integration is imperative for the widespread adoption of crypto.
That said, while Tether leads by market capitalization with $110 billion compared to USDC’s $33 billion, USDC actually dominates in terms of usage when looking at transaction volume. According to Visa’s latest on-chain analytical dashboard aiming to dissect the growth of the stablecoin sector, USDC is now responsible for more than 70% of all stablecoin payments, as illustrated below. As we’ve emphasized for years, exemplified by our own work on Dune, on-chain analytics represents the future of capital markets. It offers unparalleled transparency and real-time data access, unlike traditional industries reliant on periodic disclosures of quarterly financials. Therefore, Visa’s active engagement in on-chain analytics marks a watershed moment, reaffirming our long-held belief that this is the path forward.
Figure 3: Stablecoins Monthly Transaction Volume
Source: Alluvium X Visa
Despite USDC’s widespread adoption, Tether has achieved remarkable financial success in Q1. The company raked in a staggering $4.52B in profits by strategically deploying user deposits into U.S. treasury and repurchase agreements. The exposure to debt, coupled with rising Bitcoin and Gold prices, has proven to be a lucrative formula. As a result, Tether’s net profit now eclipses that of financial giants like Citibank, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley, highlighting the burgeoning business potential of the fiat-backed stablecoin model.
Further, characterized by its disintermediated structure and emphasis on user experience, stablecoins have proven themselves as a viable alternative within the financial landscape. They are arguably one of crypto’s most compelling use cases right now. Its significance becomes even more apparent in regions facing economic instability, where users turn to stablecoins as a swift means to access the U.S. dollar, safeguarding themselves against currency devaluation. Turkey serves as a notable case study, stablecoin transactions account for a remarkable 4% of the nation’s GDP, the highest proportion globally, at a time when the Turkish Lira lost more than 75% of its value against the U.S. dollar over the last 5 years.
Finally, Tether is intensifying its efforts by launching USDT on the TON blockchain, which is closely linked to Telegram. Despite TON’s recent rise in popularity with approximately 1.74M users, it aims to tap into Telegram’s vast 900M user base through its deep integration. This move could significantly expand the market for stablecoins, currently serving around 25M users. Moreover, this integration is a pivotal step in simplifying crypto usage, concealing its complexities, and paving the way for mass adoption.
This Week’s Calendar
Source: Forex Factory, 21Shares
Research Newsletter
Each week the 21Shares Research team will publish our data-driven insights into the crypto asset world through this newsletter. Please direct any comments, questions, and words of feedback to research@21shares.com
Disclaimer
The information provided does not constitute a prospectus or other offering material and does not contain or constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy securities in any jurisdiction. Some of the information published herein may contain forward-looking statements. Readers are cautioned that any such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks and uncertainties and that actual results may differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements as a result of various factors. The information contained herein may not be considered as economic, legal, tax or other advice and users are cautioned to base investment decisions or other decisions solely on the content hereof.
Utvecklingen för Hashdex kryptoindex ETPer
XD5E ETF en utdelande fond som köper aktier från Eurozonen
Bitcoin’s Volatility and Stablecoin’s Market Viability: What Happened in Crypto This Week?
Endast en tredjedel av brittiska privatinvesterare har hört talas om ansvarsfulla investeringar eller ESG
C3AE ETF spårar det kinesiska A 300 Swap indexet
ETFmarknaden i Europa firar sitt 24-årsjubileum med tillgångar på två biljoner USD
Tillgång till obligationsmarknaden för företagsobligationer från utvecklade marknader
Vilken är den bästa fond som följer Nasdaq-100?
De mest populära börshandlade fonderna april 2024
Försvarsfond når förvaltad volym på 500 MUSD
-
Nyheter3 veckor sedanETFmarknaden i Europa firar sitt 24-årsjubileum med tillgångar på två biljoner USD
-
Nyheter3 veckor sedanTillgång till obligationsmarknaden för företagsobligationer från utvecklade marknader
-
Nyheter2 veckor sedanVilken är den bästa fond som följer Nasdaq-100?
-
Nyheter1 vecka sedanDe mest populära börshandlade fonderna april 2024
-
Nyheter4 veckor sedanFörsvarsfond når förvaltad volym på 500 MUSD
-
Nyheter4 dagar sedanNågra av de bästa guldfonderna
-
Nyheter2 veckor sedanU.S. Global Investors tar över HANetf Travel
-
Nyheter4 veckor sedanBygg din egen pengamaskin
