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What Happens When U.S. Interest Rates Rise?

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Quarterly Outlook - Q4 2015 - What Happens When U.S. Interest Rates Rise? We are pleased to present our Macroeconomic Quarterly Outlook, a publication jointly authored by Roubini Global Economics and ETF Securities Research.

Quarterly Outlook – Q4 2015 – What Happens When U.S. Interest Rates Rise?

We are pleased to present our Macroeconomic Quarterly Outlook, a publication jointly authored by Roubini Global Economics and ETF Securities Research.

What Happens When U.S. Interest Rates Rise?

Our global growth baseline is an unsynchronised expansion, with pockets of recession, but a great deal depends on how the U.S. economy copes with the coming increase in interest rates.

•    Our first key theme for our Q4 update is monetary policy divergence, with the Federal Reserve’s forthcoming rate “normalisation” front and centre for investors, even as other central banks, notably the Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank, continue to ease. Our expectation is for a December Fed “lift-off”, but the risks of a later hike are significant.

•    Our second theme is Europe’s internal and external challenges, with the refugee crisis, the rumbling Greece calamity, the possibility of “Brexit” and elections in Spain (just one manifestation of the Eurozone’s toxic politics) dovetailing to create huge uncertainty around the European project.

•    Third, is the question of whether emerging markets are victims of their own success, with a long period of robust performance failing to spark the necessary adjustments and reforms to allow that to continue.

For more information contact

ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E info@etfsecurities.com

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Defence and AI dominate as European Thematic ETF flows hit record $8.73 billion H1 2025

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Top Performer: Defence (+$7.87 billion) Emerging Themes: Cybersecurity (+$318 million), Uranium (+$253 million) ARK Invest

• Top Performer: Defence (+$7.87 billion)

Emerging Themes: Cybersecurity (+$318 million), Uranium (+$253 million)

European thematic UCITS ETFs posted a dramatic resurgence in the first half of 2025, with net inflows of $8.73 billion year-to-date, according to ARK Invest Europe’s latest quarterly update detailing H1 2025 European thematic ETF flows.

The turnaround marks a decisive reversal from the muted flows of 2024 ($308 million net outflows for the whole of 2024), as investors rotate back into forward-looking, innovation-driven themes with clearer earnings visibility.

Defence remains the dominant thematic allocation, capturing $7.87 billion in combined net inflows between Global ($4.81 billion) and European ($3.05 billion) defence ETFs underscoring its evolution from a tactical trade to a structural portfolio allocation. Maintaining its position as the defining technological theme, AI ETFs saw $904 million in net inflows, with investor appetite fuelled by relentless innovation in large language models, robotics, and autonomous systems.

In the same period, Cybersecurity ETFs continued to rebuild momentum after significant outflows in 2024 ($311 million net outflows for H1 2024), drawing $318 million, reflecting growing investor conviction in cybersecurity as a structural necessity amid rising digital threats.

Clean Energy ETFs saw outflows of $307 million. As policy momentum stalls in key markets, investors are increasingly selective within the energy transition space. Capital is rotating toward subsectors with clearer economic moats, such as nuclear and grid infrastructure. Supporting this sentiment, Uranium ETFs rank fifth at $253 million, reflecting growing investor interest in the nuclear sector as a potential solution to global energy needs.

Healthcare Innovation ETFs recorded net outflows of $279 million. The drawdown reveals investor caution around legacy biotech firms with uncertain drug pipelines and reimbursement risks. Interest is shifting toward AI-driven healthcare platforms offering faster innovation cycles and more scalable business models.

Electric Vehicles and Battery Tech ETFs saw net outflows of $203 million as investor enthusiasm cools amid subsidy rollbacks and plateauing EV demand in major markets. Persistent concerns around battery raw materials and production bottlenecks have further weighed on the theme.

Rahul Bhushan says, “After a cautious 2024, it’s evident that investors are re-engaging with innovation themes that offer clearer earnings visibility and resilience in an increasingly complex macro landscape. We’re seeing investor conviction in megatrends with structural tailwinds, particularly defence, AI, and energy security. Thematics are no longer just tactical bets, they’re core strategic exposures.”

2025/2024 Comparative Study

Thematics are back

After a weak 2024, investor appetite for thematic risk has returned in force:

• H1 2025 total net inflows: +$8.74B

• That’s a sharp reversal from -$791M in H2 2024 and only +$483M in H1 2024

• The rotation is clear: capital is moving back into forward-looking themes with stronger earnings visibility.

Defence is now a structural trade

• Global and Europe Defence saw a combined $7.87B in inflows in H1 2025 and $1.59B in June alone.

• This continues a multi-quarter surge as geopolitical tensions, rising military budgets, and renewed industrial policy drive long-term allocations.

• Defence is no longer a tactical trade—it’s becoming a core exposure.

AI inflows normalise, but conviction remains

• Artificial Intelligence ETFs drew $904M in H1 2025, following $1.47B in H1 2024.

• Inflows may be slowing, but investor conviction is holding firm.

• With earnings delivery now catching up to narrative, AI remains a centrepiece of thematic portfolios.

Cybersecurity shows signs of stabilisation

After brutal outflows in 2024 (-$311M H1, -$260M H2), cybersecurity ETFs finally saw inflows:

• $318M in H1 2025, including $67M in June.

• This rebound suggests investors are once again prioritising digital resilience in an AI-driven world.

Infrastructure themes are quietly regaining traction

• Global and Europe Infrastructure ETFs pulled in $284M in H1 2025, following modest gains in H2 2024.

• Infrastructure is benefiting from government stimulus, defence modernisation, and the reshoring trade.

Uranium’s steady climb continues

• $253M in H1 2025, after $216M in H2 2024 and $67M in June alone.

• Indeed, the $67M in June alone nearly matches the $66M pulled in during the entirety of H1 2024.

• A rare clean energy theme that’s bucking the downtrend, reflecting growing recognition of nuclear as a pragmatic decarbonisation solution.

Clean Energy sentiment is so bad, it might be investable

• Outflows across all periods: -$307M (H1 2025), -$505M (H2 2024), -$409M (H1 2024)

• June 2025: A mere -$8M

• Sentiment is arguably as negative as it’s ever been—yet structural drivers remain in place. The setup for a contrarian rebound is building.

About ARK Invest Europe

ARK Invest International Ltd (”ARK Invest Europe”) is a specialist thematic ETF issuer offering investors access to a unique blend of active and index strategies focused on disruptive innovation and sustainability. Established following the acquisition of Rize ETF in September 2023 by ARK Investment Management LLC, ARK Invest Europe builds on over 40 years of expertise in identifying and investing in innovations that align financial performance with positive global impact.

Through its innovation pillar and the ”ARK” range of ETFs, ARK Invest focuses on companies leading and benefiting from transformative cross-sector innovations, including robotics, energy storage, multiomic sequencing, artificial intelligence, and blockchain technology. Meanwhile, its sustainability pillar, represented by the ”Rize by ARK Invest” range of ETFs, prioritises investment opportunities that reconcile growth with sustainability, advancing solutions that fuel prosperity while promoting environmental and social progress.

Headquartered in London, United Kingdom, ARK Invest Europe is dedicated to empowering investors with purposeful investment opportunities. For more information, please visit https://europe.ark-funds.com/

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UBS Asset Management lanserar sin första aktivt förvaltade ETF

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UBS Asset Management planerar att erbjuda ett utbud av aktiva ETFer som utnyttjar deras differentierade räntebärande kapacitet, följt senare av en serie avkastningsfokuserade ETFer med optionsöverlägg.
  • UBS Asset Management planerar att erbjuda ett utbud av aktiva ETFer som utnyttjar deras differentierade räntebärande kapacitet, följt senare av en serie avkastningsfokuserade ETFer med optionsöverlägg.
  • Den första som lanseras idag ger tillgång till den aktiva förvaltningsexpertisen hos UBS AMs Credit Investments Group (CIG), en av de ledande förvaltarna av collateralized loan obligations globalt.
  • Den nya UBS EUR AAA CLO UCITS ETF erbjuder investerare exponering mot den högsta kreditkvaliteten inom CLO-strukturen i ett likvidt och kostnadseffektivt omslag.

UBS Asset Management (UBS AM) tillkännager idag lanseringen av sin första aktivt förvaltade ETF, som ger kostnadseffektiv exponering mot de högst rankade trancherna av marknaden för collateralized loan obligation (”CLO”). UBS EUR AAA CLO UCITS ETF kombinerar den aktiva förvaltningsexpertisen hos UBS AMs Credit Investments Group med skalan hos deras väletablerade ETF-erbjudande.

André Mueller, chef för kundtäckning på UBS Asset Management, sa: ”CLOer erbjuder stark avkastningspotential och diversifieringsfördelar. Att navigera på denna marknad kräver dock förståelse för CLO-strukturer, regleringar och riskerna i denna sektor. Vi har kombinerat mer än 20 års ETF-innovation med expertisen hos vår Credit Investments Group för att effektivt och transparent tillhandahålla de högst rankade CLO-värdepapperen. Den aktiva förvaltningsdelen erbjuder kostnadseffektiv exponering med potential att överträffa.”

John Popp, chef för Credit Investments Group på UBS Asset Management, tillade: ”Vi är glada att kunna erbjuda vår expertis inom hantering av CLO-trancher i över två decennier till en bredare investerarbas. Vårt teams djupa kreditkunskap och meritlista genom flera kreditcykler gör oss väl positionerade för att tillhandahålla övertygande investeringar. På dagens marknad anser vi att AAA CLO-skulder erbjuder en attraktiv risk-avkastningsprofil. Att erbjuda denna investering via en ETF kommer att utöka tillgången till denna växande marknad.”

Den aktiva UBS EUR AAA CLO UCITS ETF* erbjuder tillgång till den växande CLO-marknaden genom en likvid och kostnadseffektiv ETF-struktur, vilket innebär:

  • Förbättrad avkastningspotential med strukturellt skydd – AAA CLOer erbjuder högre avkastning jämfört med liknande rankade investeringar, med strukturella egenskaper som har testats genom cykler, utan fallissemang ens under perioder av ekonomisk kris**
  • Portföljdiversifiering – tillgångsslagets rörliga ränta ger betydande diversifieringspotential i samband med en bredare ränteportfölj
  • Aktiv fördel – Credit Investments Group, en av de främsta förvaltarna av säkerställda låneförpliktelser globalt, hanterar dynamiskt risk och avkastning för att fånga marknadsmöjligheter
  • ETF-effektivitetETF-strukturen möjliggör likviditet och kostnadseffektiv tillgång till denna komplexa tillgångsklass

*Fonden är registrerad för försäljning i Österrike, Schweiz, Tyskland, Danmark, Spanien, Finland, Frankrike, Irland, Italien, Liechtenstein, Luxemburg, Nederländerna, Norge och Sverige.

**S&P Global Ratings, “Default, Transition, and Recovery: 2023 Annual Global Leveraged Loan CLO Default and Rating Transition Study”, 27 juni 2024

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AZEH ETF är en aktivt förvaltad ETF som investerar i Asien ex Japan

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iShares Asia ex Japan Equity Enhanced Active UCITS ETF USD (Acc) (AZEH ETF) med ISIN IE000D5R9C23, är en aktivt förvaltad ETF.

iShares Asia ex Japan Equity Enhanced Active UCITS ETF USD (Acc) (AZEH ETF) med ISIN IE000D5R9C23, är en aktivt förvaltad ETF.

Den börshandlade fonden investerar minst 70 procent i aktier från Asien (exklusive Japan). Upp till 30 procent av tillgångarna kan placeras i private equity-instrument, värdepapper med fast ränta med investment grade-rating och penningmarknadsinstrument. Värdepapper väljs utifrån hållbarhetskriterier och en kvantitativ investeringsmodell.

Den börshandlade fondens TER (total cost ratio) uppgår till 0,30 % p.a. iShares Asia ex Japan Equity Enhanced Active UCITS ETF USD (Acc) är den enda ETF som följer iShares Asia ex Japan Equity Enhanced Active-index. ETFen replikerar det underliggande indexets prestanda genom fullständig replikering (köper alla indexbeståndsdelar). Utdelningarna i ETFen ackumuleras och återinvesteras.

iShares Asia ex Japan Equity Enhanced Active UCITS ETF USD (Acc) är en mycket liten ETF med 9 miljoner euro förvaltade tillgångar. ETFen lanserades den 31 juli 2024 och har sin hemvist i Irland.

Investeringsmål

Fonden förvaltas aktivt och syftar till att uppnå långsiktig kapitaltillväxt på din investering, med hänvisning till MSCI AC Asia ex Japan Index (”Riktmärket”) för avkastning.

Handla AZEH ETF

iShares Asia ex Japan Equity Enhanced Active UCITS ETF USD (Acc) (AZEH ETF) är en europeisk börshandlad fond. Denna fond handlas på flera olika börser, till exempel Deutsche Boerse Xetra och London Stock Exchange.

Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETF genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel DEGIRONordnet, Aktieinvest och Avanza.

Börsnoteringar

BörsValutaKortnamn
Euronext AmsterdamUSDAXEE
XETRAEURAZEH
London Stock ExchangeGBPAXEE

Största innehav

KortnamnNamnSektorVikt (%)ISINValuta
USDUSD CASHCash and/or Derivatives12.85USD
ISTUSADBLK ICS US TREAS AGENCY DISCash and/or Derivatives9.01IE00B3YQRB45USD
2330TAIWAN SEMICONDUCTOR MANUFACTURINGInformationsteknologi8.55TW0002330008TWD
700TENCENT HOLDINGS LTDKommunikationstjänster5.58KYG875721634HKD
005930SAMSUNG ELECTRONICS LTDInformationsteknologi4.40KR7005930003KRW
9988ALIBABA GROUP HOLDING LTDSällanköpsvaror2.50KYG017191142HKD
GSIFTCASH COLLATERAL USD GSIFTCash and/or Derivatives2.02USD
1299AIA GROUP LTDFinans1.99HK0000069689HKD
000660SK HYNIX INCInformationsteknologi1.27KR7000660001KRW
PDDPDD HOLDINGS ADS INCSällanköpsvaror1.27US7223041028USD

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