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Rate hike expectations resurface

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Rate hike expectations resurface - Market Insight – Foreign Exchange

Rate hike expectations resurface – Market Insight – Foreign Exchange

Market expectations shift

The EUR/USD currency pair has been subject to a great deal of volatility in 2016, despite only being up 0.1%* on a YTD basis. Earlier this month, the exchange rate reached a four month high of 1.133 before Mario Draghi’s dovish speech to the European parliament pulled the pair back down to the 1.08/1.09 range. The swings reflect market uncertainty around prospects for European and US economic growth and the future path of central bank policy. In the period leading up to and following the European Central Bank (ECB) and the US Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy meeting on the 10th and 15th March respectively, the EUR/USD is likely to come under pressure as investors re-establish expectations of US interest rate hikes and the ECB delivers on promises of further monetary easing.

Pressure on ECB to deliver

The ECB’s current measures to ensure price stability appear to be inadequate. Eurozone inflation expectations are at the lowest level in over 12 years and advance inflation data released last Friday show that the Eurozone fell back into deflation in February (see Figure 1). The ECB is under considerable pressure to implement meaningful stimulus at its March meeting in order to restore price growth in the region. This is compounded by events in December, where ECB actions failed to meet market expectations and fuelled a 3%* EUR/USD appreciation. Should Mario Draghi follow through on recent rhetoric and implement further easing at the upcoming monetary policy meeting, the EUR/USD currency pair is likely to trend lower.

ETFS1

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Core US inflation approaches target

In the wake of recent market turbulence, expectations of further US interest rate hikes in 2016 dropped to zero. However, the strength of recent US inflation readings, both headline and core, have prompted investors to revisit these expectations. The Fed’s favoured measure of inflation, personal consumption expenditure (PCE) core price index, rose to 1.7%* in January, over half a percent higher than consensus estimates. This puts the measure very close to the Fed’s target of 2% and at a level that the average Fed official didn’t expect to reach before Q4 of this year. The data dependent approach that the Fed claims to follow should mean that, contrary to market expectations, more rate hikes are on the way in 2016. As investors re-price this into short term market rates the US Dollar should receive support.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) data shows that since the start of December, short positioning to the EUR has unwound to the lowest level in 15 months, closely tracking reduced expectations of a Fed rate hike (see Figure 2). In coming weeks, as expectations of 2016 US interest rate hikes reassert themselves, we could see a corresponding build in short positions against the Euro.

ETFS2

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Important Information

This communication has been issued and approved for the purpose of section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (“ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (the “FCA”).

The information contained in this communication is for your general information only and is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investments may go down in value.

This document is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares or securities in the United States or any province or territory thereof. Neither this document nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States.

This communication may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information. Although ETFS UK endeavours to ensure the accuracy of the content in this communication, ETFS UK does not warrant or guarantee its accuracy or correctness. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this communication make no warranties or representation of any kind relating to such data. Where ETFS UK has expressed its own opinions related to product or market activity, these views may change. Neither ETFS UK, nor any affiliate, nor any of their respective officers, directors, partners, or employees accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this publication or its contents.
ETFS UK is required by the FCA to clarify that it is not acting for you in any way in relation to the investment or investment activity to which this communication relates. In particular, ETFS UK will not provide any investment services to you and or advise you on the merits of, or make any recommendation to you in relation to, the terms of any transaction. No representative of ETFS UK is authorised to behave in any way which would lead you to believe otherwise. ETFS UK is not, therefore, responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients and you should seek your own independent legal, investment and tax or other advice as you see fit.

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CBDE ETF investerar i amerikanska företagsobligationer

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Amundi USD Corporate Bond UCITS ETF EUR Hedged Acc (CBDE ETF) med ISIN LU2977997381, försöker att följa Bloomberg US Corporate Liquid Issuer (EUR Hedged) index. Bloomberg US Corporate Liquid Issuer (EUR Hedged) index följer utvecklingen av företagsobligationer denominerade i amerikanska dollar. Rating: Investment Grade. Valutasäkrad till euro (EUR).

Amundi USD Corporate Bond UCITS ETF EUR Hedged Acc (CBDE ETF) med ISIN LU2977997381, försöker att följa Bloomberg US Corporate Liquid Issuer (EUR Hedged) index. Bloomberg US Corporate Liquid Issuer (EUR Hedged) index följer utvecklingen av företagsobligationer denominerade i amerikanska dollar. Rating: Investment Grade. Valutasäkrad till euro (EUR).

Den börshandlade fondens totala kostnadskvot (TER) uppgår till 0,09 % per år. Amundi USD Corporate Bond UCITS ETF EUR Hedged Acc är den enda ETF som följer Bloomberg US Corporate Liquid Issuer (EUR Hedged) index. ETFn replikerar utvecklingen av det underliggande indexet genom urvalsteknik (genom att köpa ett urval av de mest relevanta indexkomponenterna). Ränteintäkterna (kupongerna) i ETFen ackumuleras och återinvesteras.

Den börshandlade fonden lanserades den 4 mars 2025 och har sitt säte i Luxemburg.

Handla CBDE ETF

Amundi USD Corporate Bond UCITS ETF EUR Hedged Acc (CBDE ETF) är en europeisk börshandlad fond. Denna fond handlas på flera olika börser, till exempel Deutsche Boerse Xetra.

Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETF genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel  Nordnet, SAVR, DEGIRO och Avanza.

Börsnoteringar

BörsValutaKortnamn
gettexEURCBDE
XETRAEURCBDE

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AXA lanserar inflationslänkad obligations-ETF

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AXA IM Global Inflation-Linked Bond Opportunities UCITS ETF förvaltas aktivt och investerar minst 50 procent av sina tillgångar i inflationslänkade obligationer utfärdade av OECD-länder. Resten kan flexibelt investeras i andra OECD-obligationer för att hantera inflationsexponering. Investerare kan handla ETFen i euro eller amerikanska dollar.

AXA IM Global Inflation-Linked Bond Opportunities UCITS ETF förvaltas aktivt och investerar minst 50 procent av sina tillgångar i inflationslänkade obligationer utfärdade av OECD-länder. Resten kan flexibelt investeras i andra OECD-obligationer för att hantera inflationsexponering. Investerare kan handla ETFen i euro eller amerikanska dollar.

NamnISIN
Kortnamn
AvgiftUtdelnings-
policy
AXA IM Global Inflation-Linked Bond Opportunities UCITS ETF – USD AccumulationIE000J4FE268
ACPH (EUR)
ACPI (USD)
0,20%Ackumulerande

Produktutbudet inom Deutsche Börses ETF- och ETP-segment omfattar för närvarande totalt 2 479 ETFer, 202 ETCer och 261 ETNer. Med detta urval och en genomsnittlig månatlig handelsvolym på cirka 25 miljarder euro är Xetra den ledande handelsplatsen för ETFer och ETPer i Europa.

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Xtrackers sänker avgifter för ETFer med en AUM över 20 miljarder euro

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Xtrackers är glada att kunna meddela att företaget från och med den 1 juli 2025 kommer att sänka den årliga totala kostnadskvoten (TER) på fyra av sina ETFer på dess kärnmarknader – två Xtrackers-obligations-ETFer och två Xtrackers-aktie-ETFer.

Xtrackers är glada att kunna meddela att företaget från och med den 1 juli 2025 kommer att sänka den årliga totala kostnadskvoten (TER) på fyra av sina ETFer på dess kärnmarknader – två Xtrackers-obligations-ETFer och två Xtrackers-aktie-ETFer.

Detta är Xtrackers sätt att förmedla stordriftsfördelar och göra deras produkter ännu mer attraktiva.

Totalt påverkar förändringarna ETFer med en volym på över 20 miljarder euro¹.

Översikt över ETFer som gynnas av avgiftssänkningar

NamnISIN
Kortnamn

Share Class AUM¹
(EUR Mn.)
ETF AUM²
(EUR Mn.)
TER old p.a.TER new p.a.
Xtrackers S&P 500 UCITS ETF 4CIE000Z9SJA06
XDPU GY
2541,2430,06%0,05%
Xtrackers MSCI World UCITS ETF 1CIE00BJ0KDQ92
XDWD GY
13,86018,4980,19%0,12%
Xtrackers II Eurozone Government Bond UCITS ETF 1CLU0290355717
XGLE GY
2,4403,3960,09%0,07%
Xtrackers II EUR Corporate Bond UCITS ETF 1CLU0478205379
XBLC GY
3,9553,9900,12%0,09% 

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