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Underweight US, Europe and precious metals

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9 år sedan

den

12 oktober, 2016

Redaktionen

ETF Securities Asset Allocation Research: Underweight US, Europe and precious metals

Summary

For October, in the equity space, the tactical portfolio continues to reallocate its weights from developed countries into emerging market stocks.
In the commodity space, we tactically underweight gold, platinum and palladium, increasing allocation across the board to keep commodities at 10% in the portfolio.
Our tactical portfolio has much lower volatility than its strategic benchmark since 2005, returning 5.2% per year and enhancing the Sharpe ratio by 65%.
In this second edition of our asset allocation strategy, we will review the performance of our tactical portfolio compared to its strategic benchmark over the past quarter. We will also detail our tactical positions for October 2016.

October 2016 positioning

The following table highlights how our positions have changed over the past quarter in the tactical portfolio compared to the strategic benchmark. It also shows our positioning for October, based on the output of the aforementioned model recommendations as of end of September 2016.

(click to enlarge)

While market volatility measured by the VIX index is heading toward its lower band, the equity-bond relative trade model continues to suggest underweighting equities by 1,000bps to 45% for October and overweighting bonds by 1,000bps to 45% as well. If the volatility index continues to decline, the model will likely match the 55/35 split of the strategic benchmark in favour of equities accordingly.

The CAPE model suggests to remain underweight the US, France, the Netherlands, Italy and Denmark. The CAPE of these countries rose by 10% on average since end of June except for Denmark. While at 60% above its 10-years median, Denmark’s CAPE fell 21% over the period. On the other hand, based on the model, Canada, Brazil, Russia and two new countries: Turkey and Singapore should be overweight. Brazil’s CAPE is 54% below its 10-years median and continues to decline while Turkey’s CAPE is 7.1% below its historical median but rose 33% since the end of June.

The CDS model tells the tactical portfolio to remain neutral on all bond components, using the weights set by the benchmark.

The ETFS contrarian model was the most active over the past quarter, overweighting precious metals in July and August before underweighting the sector in September. For October, the commodity model is reducing the weight of gold, platinum and palladium, increasing the weight of lead, cotton and coffee.

As the UK is heading for a hard exit of the European Union, as a rate hike by the Fed is imminent and as China continues on its soft landing, our fundamental-based equity and commodity models are telling us to underweight US stocks, selective European stocks and precious metals in our tactical portfolio, three areas where we see higher risk for near term uncertainty to affect potential returns.

Q3 performance

Whilst underperforming its strategic benchmark in Q3, the tactical portfolio continues to post a much lower level of volatility at 1.3% annualised versus 3.9% for the benchmark, allowing for an increase of the Sharpe ratio by 28% from 0.22 for the benchmark to 0.28 for the tactical portfolio.

A closer look at each asset class shows that commodities and equities were the main contributors to the improved Sharpe ratio of the tactical portfolio compared to its benchmark while bonds contributed to both portfolios in the same way.

(click to enlarge)

Model performance

The tactical portfolio has the lowest level of volatility compared to the 60/40 and strategic benchmarks, improving the Sharpe ratio by 48% on average.

(click to enlarge)
Whilst underperforming the 60/40 benchmark, the tactical portfolio outperforms its strategic benchmark by 0.3% per year since January 2005.

(click to enlarge)

Each asset class in the tactical portfolio also outperforms their equivalent in the strategic benchmark, by 0.3% for equities and bonds and 2.8% for commodities, illustrating the efficiency of our fundamental-based models in improving the risk/return profile of their respective asset class as well as the portfolio.

The tactical portfolio also provides higher protection from the downside risk with a maximum drawdown of -21.6% only compared to -38.5% for the 60/40 and -39% for the strategic benchmark. Finally, the tactical portfolio recovers faster to its previous peak (2 years versus 3.25 years for the benchmarks).

The portfolio methodologies

This section provides a short description of our strategic and tactical portfolio methodologies.
Our strategic benchmark follows a long-only strategy with 60 investments across three asset classes: commodities (25), equities (28) and bonds (7). The initial weights as illustrated below are based on the weighting methodology of:

The Bloomberg Commodity Index for commodities
The MSCI AC World Index for equities
The Barclays bond indices for bonds

(click to enlarge)

The strategic portfolio represents a balanced portfolio with 55%, 35% and 10% allocated in equities, bonds and commodities respectively. Every month, the strategic portfolio rebalances into the weights set by the above benchmarks.

Our tactical portfolio aims to outperform its strategic benchmark by applying fundamental-based models to reflect our expertise in each asset class and our views of the global economy. The tactical portfolio rebalances every month to a new set of weights determined by the models below:

The equity-bond relative trade model sets the weights at the asset class level between equities and bonds while commodities will remain at 10% all the time
The CAPE model sets the weight for equities
The CDS model sets the weight for bonds
The ETFS contrarian model sets the weight for commodities

Important Information

General

This communication has been issued and approved for the purpose of section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (“ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (the “FCA”).

Liknande ämnen:ETF Securities Precious metals

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Gold’s rally may signal what’s ahead for BTC

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Amid ongoing market volatility, gold has surged to a new record high above the $3,400 threshold, fueled by growing demand for safe-haven assets. With a YTD performance that places it as the top-performing major asset class, gold has benefitted from concerns over inflation, macro uncertainty, and a weakening US dollar. Investors have sought protection in stores of value, driving strong inflows into gold despite mixed equity performance and sluggish economic indicators. This shift reflects a broader trend that began in 2023, when both gold and bitcoin started showing strong price momentum amid rising global instability.

As digital assets continue to gain legitimacy in global finance, bitcoin increasingly stands alongside gold as a modern alternative store of value. Given gold’s significantly larger market cap, it’s reasonable to expect that fundamentals-driven triggers—such as the opening of the US institutional market and the establishment of a BTC strategic reserve—could have an even more pronounced impact on bitcoin’s price trajectory. With the same macro tailwinds now propelling gold, BTC may be poised for an outsized rally in the coming months as investors seek resilient, decentralized hedges against systemic risk.

Source: Hashdex Research with data from CF Benchmarks and Bloomberg (from Dec 31, 2022, to April 20, 2025). The last price for bitcoin and gold is from April 20 as the month is not closed yet.

MARKET HIGHLIGHTS

Apr 14 2025 – Apr 20 2025

Powell signals easing of crypto rules for banks

• Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signaled the potential easing of crypto-related regulations applicable to banks.

• Such a shift could facilitate greater institutional adoption of digital assets globally, as cryptocurrencies become more closely integrated into the traditional financial system of the world’s largest economy.

Arizona advances crypto reserve legislation

• Arizona’s Senate Bill 1373, which seeks to establish a state-managed digital asset reserve, has passed a House committee.

• This development positions Arizona as a leader in state-level crypto initiatives and may set a precedent for other states to follow.

Hyperliquid dominates on-chain perp market

• It was recently disclosed that the decentralized exchange Hyperliquid has captured 70% of the on-chain perpetual contracts market.

• This underscores the growing relevance of perpetual contracts for this protocol within DeFi and signals the emergence of another potential blue-chip in the digital assets space.

• The emergence of solid players in this niche could trigger a shift from centralized derivatives platforms to decentralized alternatives highlights the evolving landscape of crypto trading.

MARKET METRICS

The Nasdaq Crypto Index™

NCI™ constituents delivered mixed results last week. SOL (+6.9%) and LINK (+6.1%) stood out as top performers, while ADA lagged behind with a 3.3% decline—underperforming all other constituents. This divergence likely reflects a neutral macro backdrop, combined with token-specific catalysts, such as software company Janover (JVNR) purchasing $10.3 million of SOL as part of its Solana-focused digital asset treasury strategy.

Source: Hashdex Research with data from Messari (from April 13, 2025 to April 20, 2025).

MARKET METRICS

The Nasdaq Crypto Index™

This week, the NCI™ had relatively flat performance, rising 0.8% and helping it close the gap with the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500, which saw declines of 2.3% and 1.5%, respectively. The standout performer, however, was gold — the top-performing asset class of the year — which surged 4.7%, reaching a new record high above $3,400 amid rising global uncertainty. Gold’s strong performance may signal that other store-of-value assets, such as bitcoin, could see upward momentum soon, as it continues to lag behind gold YTD.

Source: Hashdex Research with data from CF Benchmarks and Bloomberg (from December 31, 2024 to April 20, 2025).

MARKET METRICS

Indices tracked by Hashdex

Source: Hashdex Research with data from CF Benchmarks and Vinter (from April 20, 2024 to April 20, 2025).

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Tom Bailey, analyschef på HANetf, kommenterar nedan om guldpriset som når nya rekordnivåer: ”Guldpriset har återigen nått nya rekordnivåer, då investerare ser ädelmetallen som en säkring mot risk. Guld har blivit en ö av stabilitet i en till synes mer kaotisk värld. Trumps tullar utlöste prisfall på aktier och obligationer, vilket lämnade guld som en säker hamn. Traditionellt sett kommer en kris att se investerare flockas till amerikanska tillgångar, särskilt obligationer, med tanke på landets rykte om säkerhet och stabilitet. Men med tanke på att Trumps tullar av vissa ses som ett angrepp på den efterkrigsledda USA-ledda ordningen, utmanas detta rykte. Guld blir därför en gynnad tillgång. Efter en fantastisk prestation 2024 visar guld potential att bibehålla detta momentum 2025, och vi förväntar oss ytterligare uppsida härifrån.

”Sedan början av året har europeiska investerare lagt till 4 miljarder dollar till sina guld-ETC-innehav.” Det representerar en markant skillnad jämfört med förra året, då guld-ETCer registrerade utflöden. Vi har också sett en ökning av flödena i våra valutasäkrade guld-ETCer hos The Royal Mint, vilket tyder på att investerare vill öka sin guldexponering men minska sin exponering mot dollarrörelser.

”HANetfs The Royal Mint Responsibly Sourced Physical Gold ETC (RM8U), och dess valutasäkrade versioner (RMEH i euro och RMPH i pund), erbjuder ett unikt sätt för investerare att få tillgång till guldmarknaden. RM8U backas upp av ansvarsfullt anskaffat guld, inklusive återvunnet guld, och det fysiska guldet förvaras säkert i The Royal Mints valv, vilket ger oöverträffad sinnesro. Som Storbritanniens äldsta företag med över 1 100 års historia ger The Royal Mint en nivå av förtroende och arv som saknar motstycke på ETC-marknaden.”

Handla RM8U ETC

HANetf The Royal Mint Physical Gold ETC Securities (RM8U ETC) är en europeisk börshandlad fond som handlas på bland annat London Stock Exchange och tyska Xetra.

Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETC genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel Nordnet, SAVR, DEGIRO och Avanza.

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BE27 ETF bara företagsobligationer med förfall 2027

Publicerad

21 timmar sedan

den

21 april, 2025

Redaktionen

Invesco BulletShares 2027 EUR Corporate Bond UCITS ETF EUR Dis (BE27 ETF) med ISIN IE000XOS4OJ6, försöker följa Bloomberg 2027 Maturity EUR Corporate Bond Screened-index. Bloomberg 2027 Maturity EUR Corporate Bond Screened Index följer företagsobligationer denominerade i EUR. Indexet speglar inte ett konstant löptidsintervall (som är fallet med de flesta andra obligationsindex). Istället ingår endast obligationer som förfaller under det angivna året (här: 2027) i indexet. Indexet består av ESG (environmental, social and governance) screenade företagsobligationer. Betyg: Investment Grade. Löptid: december 2027 (Denna ETF kommer att stängas efteråt).

Den börshandlade fondens TER (total cost ratio) uppgår till 0,10 % p.a. Invesco BulletShares 2027 EUR Corporate Bond UCITS ETF EUR Dis är den billigaste ETF som följer Bloomberg 2027 Maturity EUR Corporate Bond Screened index. ETFen replikerar resultatet för det underliggande indexet genom samplingsteknik (köper ett urval av de mest relevanta indexbeståndsdelarna). Ränteintäkterna (kuponger) i ETFen delas ut till investerarna (kvartalsvis).

Invesco BulletShares 2027 EUR Corporate Bond UCITS ETF EUR Dis är en mycket liten ETF med tillgångar på 2 miljoner euro under förvaltning. ETF lanserades den 18 juni 2024 och har sin hemvist i Irland.

Produktbeskrivning

Invesco BulletShares 2027 EUR Corporate Bond UCITS ETF Dist syftar till att tillhandahålla den totala avkastningen för Bloomberg 2027 Maturity EUR Corporate Bond Screened Index (”Referensindexet”), minus avgifternas inverkan. Fonden har en fast löptid och kommer att upphöra på Förfallodagen. Fonden delar ut intäkter på kvartalsbasis.

Referensindexet är utformat för att återspegla resultatet för EUR-denominerade, investeringsklassade, fast ränta, skattepliktiga skuldebrev emitterade av företagsemittenter. För att vara kvalificerade för inkludering måste företagsvärdepapper ha minst 300 miljoner euro i nominellt utestående belopp och en effektiv löptid på eller mellan 1 januari 2027 och 31 december 2027.

Värdepapper är uteslutna om emittenter: 1) är inblandade i kontroversiella vapen, handeldvapen, militära kontrakt, oljesand, termiskt kol eller tobak; 2) inte har en kontroversnivå enligt definitionen av Sustainalytics eller har en Sustainalytics-kontroversnivå högre än 4; 3) anses inte följa principerna i FN:s Global Compact; eller 4) kommer från tillväxtmarknader.

Portföljförvaltarna strävar efter att uppnå fondens mål genom att tillämpa en urvalsstrategi, som inkluderar användning av kvantitativ analys, för att välja en andel av värdepapperen från referensindexet som representerar hela indexets egenskaper, med hjälp av faktorer som index- vägd genomsnittlig varaktighet, industrisektorer, landvikter och kreditkvalitet. När en företagsobligation som innehas av fonden når förfallodag kommer kontanterna som fonden tar emot att användas för att investera i kortfristiga EUR-denominerade skulder.

ETFen förvaltas passivt.

En investering i denna fond är ett förvärv av andelar i en passivt förvaltad indexföljande fond snarare än i de underliggande tillgångarna som ägs av fonden.

”Förfallodag”: den andra onsdagen i december 2027 eller sådant annat datum som bestäms av styrelseledamöterna och meddelas aktieägarna.

Handla BE27 ETF

Invesco BulletShares 2027 EUR Corporate Bond UCITS ETF EUR Dis (BE27 ETF) är en europeisk börshandlad fond. Denna fond handlas på flera olika börser, till exempel Deutsche Boerse Xetra och Borsa Italiana.

Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETF genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel DEGIRO, Nordnet, Aktieinvest och Avanza.

Börsnoteringar

Börs	Valuta	Kortnamn
Borsa Italiana	EUR	BE27
XETRA	EUR	BE27

Största innehav

Namn	CUSIP	ISIN	Kupongränta	Vikt %
Volkswagen International Finance N 1.875% 30/03/27	N93695MD8	XS1586555945	1,875	2,94%
Enel Finance International NV 0.375% 17/06/27	N30706EJ5	XS2066706909	0,375	2,10%
RCI Banque SA 4.75% 06/07/27	F7S48DRZ9	FR001400B1L7	4,750	1,65%
Intesa Sanpaolo SpA 4.375% 29/08/27	T5R13TRQ5	XS2673808486	4,375	1,62%
Pernod Ricard SA 3.75% 15/09/27	F7202GAN9	FR001400KPB4	3,750	1,59%
Societe Generale SA 4% 16/11/27	F8586SEP8	FR001400DZM5	4,000	1,59%
Kering SA 3.625% 05/09/27	F5433LBY8	FR001400KHZ0	3,625	1,58%
Vonovia SE 4.75% 23/05/27	D9581TAX8	DE000A30VQA4	4,750	1,58%
Nestle Finance International Ltd 3.5% 13/12/27	L6S79FP42	XS2595410775	3,500	1,58%
Credit Agricole SA 3.375% 28/07/27	F2R125DC6	FR001400E7J5	3,375	1,57%