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Gold Bull Market Loses Some Shine, But Remains Healthy

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Market Review - Gold Bull Market Loses Some Shine, But Remains HealthyGold Consolidates Amid Late Summer Doldrums

Market Review – Gold Bull Market Loses Some Shine, But Remains HealthyGold Consolidates Amid Late Summer Doldrums

Gold Market Commentary September 2016

Market Review

Gold was range-bound in September, moving in the $1,300 to $1,350 per ounce range. Economic news from the U.S. was generally weak and central bank announcements were supportive of gold. The Federal Reserve (the “Fed”) kept rates on hold and downgraded its median GDP growth projection for 2016 to 1.8% from 2.0%. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) acknowledged that negative rates and quantitative easing are not working as well as planned, so it decided to experiment further with unconventional monetary policies. The BOJ is now targeting the yield curve and attempting to keep 10-year Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) sufficiently above shorter term negative-yielding maturities. This initiative is aimed at aiding banks, pension funds, and insurance companies who are having difficulty making ends meet in this low/ negative rate environment the BOJ and other central banks have engineered. We believe that these ongoing attempts to manipulate markets will lead to unintended consequences that raise systemic risk.

Gold bullion ended the month at $1,315.75 per ounce for a 0.5% gain while gold stocks experienced more positive returns. The NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index (GDMNTR)1 posted a 3.8% gain while the MVIS™ Junior Gold Miners Index (MVGDXJTR)2 advanced 5.8%.

Market Outlook

Gold had been consolidating in a narrow $1,300 to $1,350 per ounce range since hitting its post-Brexit highs in July. As we write in early October, markets are again pricing in a higher likelihood of a Fed rate increase in December based on comments made by Fed members following its September meeting. This, in turn, is lending strength to the U.S. dollar.

As a result, gold has fallen below $1,300 per ounce and broken below the longer term trend line that had been established this year. This leads us to be less aggressive in our gold price expectations for 2016. It looks like the current consolidation could persist through October, dependent on any economic news that develops. However, this price action changes virtually nothing in our positive long-term outlook for gold. Price weakness is likely to spur seasonal demand out of India and Asia. We continue to believe that a Fed rate increase would ultimately be seen as another misstep that puts global growth at risk. In addition, the U.S. presidential election, implementation of Brexit, and further loss of confidence in central bank policies should support gold through 2017 and beyond.

Each year in mid-September, top managements of gold companies converge on Colorado for the Precious Metals Summit and the Denver Gold Forum. Based on our 41 meetings, eight presentations, and numerous dinners, gatherings, and interactions with industry contacts, we came away with a more refined outlook for the gold mining sector. Here are some important takeaways:

1) Costs savings continue, margins expanding – We questioned whether the cost cycle had run its course after all-in sustaining (mining) costs fell from roughly $1,200/oz in 2012 to $900/oz in 2016. We were surprised to hear companies anticipate continued savings in mining practices, technology implementation, procurement (the act of finding, acquiring, buying goods, services or works from an external source) and contractor costs. We now believe industry costs can trend towards $800/oz through 2018.

2) Companies focused on organic opportunities – Low gold prices forced companies to look inward at existing operations and projects. Success with brownfields exploration (modification or upgrades based on a prior project) have led to expansions or extended mine lives. Revised planning has enabled development projects to require less capital with higher rates of return and phased expansions.

3) Heavy M&A cycle not likely until late 2017/2018 – With more organic opportunities, there is not as much pressure to make acquisitions in the near-term. That said, corporate development teams were quite active, suggesting some companies are preparing to pull the acquisition trigger at some point to replace future production declines.

4) Dividend increases to be limited in 2017 – We had hoped to hear of strong dividend growth in 2017, however, we now believe any increases will be limited due to capital allocations to existing property developments and in some cases to further help pay down debt.

5) Ongoing industry themes – An emphasis on free cash flow over production growth, flat management structure, mine management focused on Net Asset Value (NAV) growth, use of double digit hurdle rates at conservative gold prices on new projects, partnering with juniors for exposure to greenfields (a property or project where no previous work has been conducted).

One of the dominant financial trends of the past decade is a move by investors out of actively managed funds and into passively managed index funds or exchange traded funds (ETFs). The latest example is the Illinois State Pension Board, which according to The Wall Street Journal, decided to jettison active mutual fund managers altogether, leaving only passively managed choices for its state workers. The reasons cited for the move into ETFs included lower fees and potentially better performance as many active managers fail to outperform their passive peers. We have witnessed this recent preference for ETFs here at VanEck.

Although gold has experienced some consolidation recently, we still maintain our positive outlook for gold and believe that investors would be wise to consider their exposure to gold stocks, either passively or actively, as these equities typically outperform gold bullion in a rising market and underperform when gold falls.

by Joe Foster, Portfolio Manager and Strategist

With more than 30 years of gold industry experience, Foster began his gold career as a boots on the ground geologist, evaluating mining exploration and development projects. Foster is Portfolio Manager and Strategist for the Gold and Precious Metals strategy.

1In the U.S., the federal funds rate is “the interest rate” at which depository institutions actively trade balances held at the Federal Reserve, called federal funds, with each other, usually overnight, on an uncollateralized basis. Institutions with surplus balances in their accounts lend those balances to institutions in need of larger balances. 2The correlation coefficient is a measure that determines the degree to which two variables’ movements are associated and will vary from -1.0 to 1.0. -1.0 indicates perfect negative correlation, and 1.0 indicates perfect positive correlation. 3U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) indicates the general international value of the U.S. dollar. The DXY does this by averaging the exchange rates between the U.S. dollar and six major world currencies: Euro, Japanese yen, Pound sterling, Canadian dollar, Swedish kroner, and Swiss franc. 4The ISM Manufacturing Index is an index based on surveys of more than 300 manufacturing firms by the Institute of Supply Management. The ISM Manufacturing Index monitors employment, production inventories, new orders and supplier deliveries. 5A survey of consumer confidence conducted by the University of Michigan. The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (MCSI) uses telephone surveys to gather information on consumer expectations regarding the overall economy. 6The U.S. consumer confidence index (CCI) is an indicator designed to measure consumer confidence, which is defined as the degree of optimism on the state of the economy that consumers are expressing through their activities of savings and spending. 7NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index (GDMNTR) is a modified market capitalization-weighted index comprised of publicly traded companies involved primarily in the mining for gold. 8MVIS Global Junior Gold Miners Index (MVGDXJTR) is a rules-based, modified market capitalization-weighted, float-adjusted index comprised of a global universe of publicly traded small-and medium-capitalization companies that generate at least 50% of their revenues from gold and/or silver mining, hold real property that has the potential to produce at least 50% of the company’s revenue from gold or silver mining when developed, or primarily invest in gold or silver.

Please note that the information herein represents the opinion of the author and these opinions may change at any time and from time to time.

Important Information For Foreign Investors

This document does not constitute an offering or invitation to invest or acquire financial instruments. The use of this material is for general information purposes.

Please note that Van Eck Securities Corporation offers actively managed and passively managed investment products that invest in the asset class(es) included in this material. Gold investments can be significantly affected by international economic, monetary and political developments. Gold equities may decline in value due to developments specific to the gold industry, and are subject to interest rate risk and market risk. Investments in foreign securities involve risks related to adverse political and economic developments unique to a country or a region, currency fluctuations or controls, and the possibility of arbitrary action by foreign governments, including the takeover of property without adequate compensation or imposition of prohibitive taxation.

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Vilken är den bästa fond som följer Nasdaq-100?

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Nasdaq 100-indexet följer de 100 största aktierna noterade på Nasdaq-börsen. De utvalda företagen kommer huvudsakligen från sektorer som hårdvara och mjukvara, telekommunikation, detaljhandel och bioteknik – inklusive alla stora amerikanska teknikföretag. Däremot ingår inte företag från energi-, finans- och fastighetssektorerna i Nasdaq-100. Vilken är den bästa fond som följer Nasdaq-100?

Nasdaq 100-indexet följer de 100 största aktierna noterade på Nasdaq-börsen. De utvalda företagen kommer huvudsakligen från sektorer som hårdvara och mjukvara, telekommunikation, detaljhandel och bioteknik – inklusive alla stora amerikanska teknikföretag. Däremot ingår inte företag från energi-, finans- och fastighetssektorerna i Nasdaq-100. Vilken är den bästa fond som följer Nasdaq-100?

I USA har den populära QQQ ETF, som spårar Nasdaq 100, varit tillgänglig sedan 1999. Den förvaltas av Invesco. Den europeiska motsvarigheten till denna ETF använder tickersymbolen eQQQ. Till skillnad från den amerikanska marknaden finns det dock flera ETF-leverantörer i Europa som spårar Nasdaq 100 – så det är värt att jämföra.

ETF-investerare kan dra nytta av värdeökningar och utdelningar från Nasdaq 100-beståndsdelarna. För närvarande spåras Nasdaq 100-indexet av tretton ETFer.

Förvaltningsarvode fond som följer Nasdaq-100

Nedan har vi listat förvaltningsarvoden för fond som följer Nasdaq-100. Samtliga dessa ETFer har en konkurrenskraftig prissättning, allt från AXA IM Nasdaq 100 UCITS ETF USD Acc, som debiterar sina andelsägare 0,14 procent per år till iShares Nasdaq 100 UCITS ETF (Acc) som tar ut 0,33 procent i arvode. I jämförelse kostar de flesta aktivt förvaltade fonder mycket mer avgifter per år.

NamnValutaISINKortnamnFörvaltningsavgift
AXA IM Nasdaq 100 UCITS ETF USD AccUSDIE000QDFFK00ANAU0.14%
Invesco Nasdaq-100 Swap UCITS ETF AccUSDIE00BNRQM384EQQX0.20%
Invesco Nasdaq-100 Swap UCITS ETF DistUSDIE000RUF4QN8EQQD0.20% p.a.
Xtrackers Nasdaq 100 UCITS ETF 1CUSDIE00BMFKG444XNAS0.20%
Amundi Nasdaq-100 II UCITS ETF AccEURLU1829221024LYMS0.22%
Amundi Nasdaq-100 II UCITS ETF DistUSDLU2197908721NADQ0.22%
Amundi Nasdaq 100 UCITS ETF EUR (C)EURLU16810382436AQQ0.23%
Amundi Nasdaq 100 UCITS ETF USDUSDLU168103832610A40.23%
Deka Nasdaq-100® UCITS ETFEURDE000ETFL623D6RH0.25%
Invesco EQQQ Nasdaq-100 UCITS ETFUSDIE0032077012EQQQ0.30%
Invesco EQQQ Nasdaq-100 UCITS ETF AccUSDIE00BFZXGZ54EQQB0.30%
iShares Nasdaq 100 UCITS ETF (DE)USDDE000A0F5UF5EXXT0.31%
iShares Nasdaq 100 UCITS ETF (Acc)USDIE00B53SZB19SXRV0.33%

Som alltid vill vi påminna att om det finns flera olika börshandlade fonder som täcker samma index eller segment är det förvaltningskostnaden som avgör. Antar vi att dessa Nasdaqfonder ger samma avkastning kommer den som har lägst avgift att utvecklas bäst, allt annat lika. Grundregeln är alltså, betala aldrig för mycket då detta kommer att äta upp din avkastning.

Nasdaq 100 ETFer i jämförelse

Förutom avkastning finns det ytterligare viktiga faktorer att tänka på när du väljer en Nasdaq 100 ETF. För att ge ett bra beslutsunderlag hittar du en lista över alla Nasdaq 100 ETFer med detaljer om vinstanvändning, fondens hemvist och replikeringsmetod.

NamnUtdelningspolicyHemvistReplikeringsmetod
iShares Nasdaq 100 UCITS ETF (Acc)AckumulerandeIrlandFysisk replikering
Invesco EQQQ Nasdaq-100 UCITS ETFUtdelandeIrlandFysisk replikering
iShares Nasdaq 100 UCITS ETF (DE)UtdelandeTysklandFysisk replikering
Amundi Nasdaq-100 II UCITS ETF AccAckumulerandeLuxemburgOfinansierad swap
Invesco EQQQ Nasdaq-100 UCITS ETF AccAckumulerandeIrlandFysisk replikering
Amundi Nasdaq 100 UCITS ETF EUR (C)AckumulerandeLuxemburgOfinansierad swap
Amundi Nasdaq-100 II UCITS ETF DistUtdelandeLuxemburgOfinansierad swap
AXA IM Nasdaq 100 UCITS ETF USD AccAckumulerandeIrlandFysisk replikering
Xtrackers Nasdaq 100 UCITS ETF 1CAckumulerandeIrlandFysisk replikering
Invesco Nasdaq-100 Swap UCITS ETF AccAckumulerandeIrlandOfinansierad swap
Amundi Nasdaq 100 UCITS ETF USDAckumulerandeLuxemburgOfinansierad swap
Invesco Nasdaq-100 Swap UCITS ETF DistUtdelandeIrlandOfinansierad swap
Deka Nasdaq-100® UCITS ETFUtdelandeTysklandFysisk replikering

Handla fond som följer Nasdaq-100

Samtliga dessa ETFer är europeiska börshandlade fonder. Dessa fond handlas på flera olika börser, till exempel Deutsche Boerse Xetra och London Stock Exchange.

Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETF genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel DEGIRONordnet, Aktieinvest och Avanza.

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Inevitable in India: Crowds, cricket and capital gains tax

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capital gains tax India’s vibrant economy and structural growth opportunities continue to be the envy of many emerging markets. But somewhat unique to this market are tax implications that investors should be aware of. Our Franklin Templeton Global ETF team examines these structural issues in Asia’s third-largest economy.

India’s vibrant economy and structural growth opportunities continue to be the envy of many emerging markets. But somewhat unique to this market are tax implications that investors should be aware of. Our Franklin Templeton Global ETF team examines these structural issues in Asia’s third-largest economy.

In merely a decade, India has taken a quantum leap from the world’s 11th largest economy to become its fifth largest. By many accounts, it is expected to remain one of the world’s fastest-growing major economies over the coming years. And even after a banner 2023 during which the country’s benchmark indexes surged and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi celebrated high-profile successes—from historic technological and space exploration achievements to rising global diplomatic clout—this election year has already marked more progress in supporting Modi’s pro-growth, pro-jobs efforts.

The world’s most populous nation has advanced ties with Western countries over free trade. In addition to agreements with Australia and the United Arab Emirates, it has worked to better integrate the “Global South’s” development needs and ambitions with that of the G20. Modi has touted innovative partnerships for a new multilateral rail and sea corridor to connect India with the Middle East and the European Union (EU)—seen as a counterweight to China’s vast Belt-and-Road infrastructure corridor.

India reached its latest notable trade pact, nearly 16 years in the making, in March with the European Free Trade Association—Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway and Switzerland. The agreement lifts Indian tariffs to secure US$100 billion in foreign direct investment commitments from the non-EU markets to India across multiple sectors.

With India still an enviable investment powerhouse, it seems important to clarify a few aspects of this dynamic equity market.

How exchange-traded funds (ETFs) treat India capital gains tax (CGT)

Foreign investors should be aware that CGT is an integral part of investing in Indian equities that cannot be circumvented. Investors in India funds are subject to CGT implications regardless of fund provider, and CGT is based and calculated on a fund as a whole, not an individual investor’s position.

The details: Foreign investors owning local Indian stocks are subject to taxation on capital gains at a short-term rate of 15% for positions held for less than one year and at a long-term rate of 10% for positions held over one year.

To accrue or not to accrue: Consistent with market practice for US-listed India ETF providers, Franklin Templeton accrues unrealized CGT in its daily net asset value (NAV). This can lead to differences in performance relative to the benchmark, which does not include CGT. As a result, rising markets will typically lead to fund underperformance against a benchmark, while weaker market environments will typically generate outperformance (provided the fund is in an unrealized capital gain position where the current market value of fund holdings is above their historical book cost). See chart below.

For UCITS-listed India funds, there is a divergence in methods utilized by fund providers in accruing and reporting CGT. Some do not accrue unrealized CGT in the NAV, but will charge CGT to investors directly at redemption, which we believe leaves investors with a level of opaqueness and uncertainty over their ultimate proceeds. This method also creates an elevated NAV compared to what investors will actually experience. While Franklin Templeton’s approach to CGT may at times lead to a higher tracking difference,1 we believe investors benefit from increased transparency and a more reflective experience.

The magnitude and impact of CGT for a specific fund is heavily dependent on several variables, such as the timing of purchases and sales, performance of the holdings and their volatility, and the size of flows in and out of the fund relative to its assets under management (AUM).

Understanding the impact: The CGT impact to fund performance is driven by the path of returns, timing of individual lots and price points. Very broadly speaking, in rising markets, an NAV-accruing fund will likely underperform its benchmark and vice versa.

Consideration of comparability: Because different providers handle CGT differently, the comparability of fund performance metrics may be affected. As investors, it’s prudent to consider how these nuances may influence investment decisions within the broader context of your financial strategy.

The bigger picture: While CGT considerations are important, they should be viewed within the broader spectrum of investment objectives and risk tolerance. Taking a long-term perspective and being mindful of other important characteristics of the investment vehicle of choice may aid in the decision-making process.

In summary, India remains an attractive investment destination with compelling growth prospects for its equity markets. Investors seeking India allocation through an ETF should be aware of the current tax regime and what varying methods of accounting methodologies really mean for fund valuation.

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XB33 ETF köper företagsobligationer i euro som förfaller 2033

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Xtrackers II Target Maturity Sept 2033 EUR Corporate Bond UCITS ETF 1D (XB33 ETF) med ISIN LU2673523564, försöker följa Bloomberg MSCI Euro Corporate September 2033 SRI-index. Bloomberg MSCI Euro Corporate September 2033 SRI-index följer företagsobligationer denominerade i EUR. Indexet speglar inte ett konstant löptidsintervall (som är fallet med de flesta andra obligationsindex). Istället ingår endast obligationer som förfaller mellan oktober 2032 och september 2033 i indexet (ETF kommer att stängas i efterhand). Indexet består av ESG (environmental, social and governance) screenade företagsobligationer. Betyg: Investment Grade.

Xtrackers II Target Maturity Sept 2033 EUR Corporate Bond UCITS ETF 1D (XB33 ETF) med ISIN LU2673523564, försöker följa Bloomberg MSCI Euro Corporate September 2033 SRI-index. Bloomberg MSCI Euro Corporate September 2033 SRI-index följer företagsobligationer denominerade i EUR. Indexet speglar inte ett konstant löptidsintervall (som är fallet med de flesta andra obligationsindex). Istället ingår endast obligationer som förfaller mellan oktober 2032 och september 2033 i indexet (ETF kommer att stängas i efterhand). Indexet består av ESG (environmental, social and governance) screenade företagsobligationer. Betyg: Investment Grade.

Den börshandlade fondens TER (total cost ratio) uppgår till 0,12 procent p.a. Xtrackers II Target Maturity Sept 2033 EUR Corporate Bond UCITS ETF 1D är den enda ETF som följer Bloomberg MSCI Euro Corporate September 2033 SRI-index. ETFen replikerar det underliggande indexets prestanda genom samplingsteknik (köper ett urval av de mest relevanta indexbeståndsdelarna). Ränteintäkterna (kupongerna) i ETFen delas ut till investerarna (Minst årligen).

Denna ETF lanserades den 8 november 2023 och har sin hemvist i Luxemburg.

Bloomberg MSCI Euro Corporate SRI PAB Index syftar till att spegla resultatet på följande marknad:

  • EUR-denominerade företagsobligationer
  • Endast obligationer med investeringsklass
  • Obligationer med en löptid på minst 1 år
  • Minsta utestående belopp på 300 miljoner euro per obligation
  • Endast obligationer utgivna av företag med en MSCI ESG-rating på BBB eller högre och en MSCI ESG Impact Monitor över 1 ingår

Indexet övervakar absoluta växthusgasutsläpp (“GHG”) genom att sätta en initial 50 % avkolning av absoluta växthusgasutsläpp i förhållande till moderuniversumet följt av en årlig 7 % avkolningsbana för absoluta växthusgasutsläpp.

Obligationer utgivna av företag som är involverade i alkohol, tobak, hasardspel, vuxenunderhållning, genetiskt modifierade organismer (GMO), kärnkraft, civila skjutvapen, militära vapen (inklusive minor, klusterbomber, kemiska vapen) är undantagna.

Handla XB33 ETF

Xtrackers II Target Maturity Sept 2033 EUR Corporate Bond UCITS ETF 1D (XB33 ETF) är en europeisk börshandlad fond. Denna fond handlas på Deutsche Boerse Xetra.

Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETF genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel DEGIRONordnet, Aktieinvest och Avanza.

Börsnoteringar

BörsValutaKortnamn
XETRAEURXB33

Största innehav

ISINNamnVikt %Land
IE00BZ3FDF20DEUTSCHE GLOBAL LIQUIDITY SERI0.54%Irland
CH1214797172BBG01BFYVYX8 CREDIT SUISSE GROUP AG 3/290.18%Schweiz
XS0525602339RABOBANK 07/250.14%Holland
FR0000471930FRANCE TELECOM 01/330.13%Frankrike
FR0013324357SANOFI SA 1.375% 2030-03-210.12%Frankrike
XS1001749289MICROSOFT CORP 12/280.12%USA
XS1372839214VODAFONE GROUP PLC 08/26 EUR515200.12%Storbritannien
XS2461234622BBG0162QT3D3 JPMORGAN CHASE AND CO 3/300.11%USA
XS2235996217NOVARTIS FINANCE SA 9/280.11%Spanien
XS2705604234BBG01JPP1244 BANCO SANTANDER SA 10/310.11%Spanien
FR0013398070BNP PARIBAS 01/26 AW7468680.11%Frankrike
XS2180007549AT&T INC 5/280.11%Frankrike
XS2149207354GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC 3/250.10%USA
XS1603892149MORGAN STANLEY DEAN WITTER 04/27 AN3187610.10%USA
CH0537261858CREDIT SUISSE GROUP AG SR UNSECURED REGS 04/26 VAR 4/250.10%Schweiz

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