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Setting the Stage for the Next Gold Bull Market

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Market Review - Setting the Stage for the Next Gold Bull Market. The gold market moved to the beat of the Federal Reserve’s (the “Fed”) rate hike signal drumming in May.

Market Review – Setting the Stage for the Next Gold Bull Market. The gold market moved to the beat of the Federal Reserve’s (the “Fed”) rate hike signal drumming in May. At the beginning of May, the probabilities of a rate increase, as implied by the federal funds futures markets1, were 12% for an increase in June and 26% for a July increase. That dropped to 4% for June and 19% for July by May 16. On May 18, the market interpreted the minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee (the “FOMC”) April meeting as being more hawkish than anticipated and market expectations of rate increases in June and July jumped to 32% and 47%, respectively. Gold traded down for nine consecutive sessions following the release of the minutes. Gold dropped to an intra-day low of $1,199 per ounce on May 30, and ended the month at $1,215 per ounce for a loss of 6.0% or $77.66.

The U.S. dollar, which historically has a strong negative correlation2 with the gold price, also reflected the market’s assessment of a rate hike this summer, with the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)3 ending May up 3% for the month. The change in market sentiment regarding upcoming Fed rate decisions was primarily driven by comments from Fed Chair Janet Yellen and other Fed officials. Meanwhile, U.S. economic data releases continued to be mixed, and, in our view, do not paint a clear picture of the U.S. economy that would favor further tightening in the near term. Positive April economic data included retail sales and existing and new home sales coming in above expectations, and an increase in the ISM Manufacturing Index4 reading for May that was widely expected to be declining. In contrast, employment data and construction spending were below expectations while the University of Michigan Sentiment Index5, Consumer Confidence Index6 and manufacturing activity in Chicago and Dallas for May were all weaker than expected.

But the most impactful, in our opinion, economic data was the May jobs report announced by the U.S. Department of Labor on June 3. Reported figures were massively below expectations, showing the lowest number of workers added in six years. While market chatter before the report’s release may have suggested the Fed had everyone convinced of a summer hike, a hike was not priced in for June, as evidenced by the 20% implied probability. The chance of a July hike was only at 53.6%. Immediately after the jobs report, those probabilities dropped to 4% and 29% respectively, the DXY index fell (down 1.7%) and gold rallied (up 2.8% or $33 per ounce), closing at $1,244 per ounce on June 3.

With gold falling in May, gold stocks underperformed. The NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index (GDMNTR)7 fell 11.9%, and the MVIS Global Junior Gold Miners Index (MVGDXJTR)8 dropped 11.5% during the month, trimming gains for the year to 65% and 76% respectively, as of May 31, compared to gold’s gain of 14.5%.

Of note, the amount of gold held by global gold bullion exchange traded products (ETPs) increased by an additional 4.8% during the month of May. Holdings of global gold ETPs have increased almost 27% this year to an estimated 59.5 million ounces of gold, still well below the 2012 peak of more than 84 million ounces.

Market Outlook

We have been of the opinion that the Fed may not be as aggressive as previously guided, and that rising rates in 2016 could be a significant impediment to the U.S. economy. The June 3 jobs report missed expectations by a wide margin. In May, the U.S. added just 38,000 workers, compared to the median of 160,000 as forecasted by Bloomberg. Job gains for prior months were downgraded as well. This indicates a weakening labor market and reduces the odds of Fed rate increases in the coming months.

We believe this is another important inflection point for gold that suggests the early stages of a new bull market. The gold price has been consolidating in the $1,200 to $1,300 per ounce range since early March, hitting a low of nearly $1,200 per ounce on May 30. It now appears as if gold is poised to remain above the technically and psychologically important $1,200 per ounce level. While it is not uncommon for the gold price to struggle in the summer months, we believe gold is forming a new base. We expect to see higher gold prices as the year progresses. Gold Price Monthly Return Average, 1971-2015 and 2016

vaneck

Source: Bloomberg, Scotiabank GBM

We met the management of approximately 20 gold companies during the month, which allowed us to get a good sense of what’s happening in the sector. The main takeaway is that while companies are still focused on efficiencies, cost savings and operating improvements to help maximize cash flow, higher gold prices this year have shaped the conversation around what to do with these new cash levels.

For some companies, paying down debt still remains a priority. For firms currently building new mines, the higher cash flows provide welcomed cushion and remove market concerns over financing. Most companies also expect dividends to resume and/or increase as free cash flow grows. But for most companies, higher cash flows, at a time when balance sheets are in good shape and costs are under control, will likely bring back the opportunity to add future growth.

Valuations are still relatively low, so there is opportunity to buy assets. Exploration spending, which had been significantly reduced over the last couple of years, should also pick up again, allowing companies to add resources and reserves and increasing their chances of finding new discoveries. Projects that have been shelved will be revisited as financing becomes available. We met with management teams that despite the higher gold price, and higher cash flows that come with it, remain firmly committed to growing profitability and returns rather than production. We heard more than once in our discussions, that a new ounce of production is only good and will only be added if it improves or maintains the existing per ounce profitability of the company. Companies are measuring growth in free cash flow per share, for example, rather than production volumes.

This is very encouraging to us. Company initiatives have slowly and cautiously started to shift from mere survival to thriving. Cautiously is the key word here. As they embark on what may be the next gold bull market, we believe gold companies need to continue to demonstrate a rigorous capital allocation strategy that focuses on value creation for shareholders and positions the gold mining equity sector in the investable universe of the broader market.

by Joe Foster, Portfolio Manager and Strategist

With more than 30 years of gold industry experience, Foster began his gold career as a boots on the ground geologist, evaluating mining exploration and development projects. Foster is Portfolio Manager and Strategist for the Gold and Precious Metals strategy.

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Thinking of buying your first Bitcoin? Read these 5 tips first

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New to Bitcoin and feeling unsure? You’re not alone. Getting started can feel intimidating, but a few simple tips can help you invest with more confidence and make smarter choices from the start.

New to Bitcoin and feeling unsure? You’re not alone. Getting started can feel intimidating, but a few simple tips can help you invest with more confidence and make smarter choices from the start.

Crypto is growing up: 3 things we heard from a recent conference

Crypto’s journey toward mainstream adoption is picking up speed, and the recent Permissionless conference in New York made that more evident than ever. Read the highlights and how they could define the future of crypto.

What keeps Bitcoin mining sustainable and why it matters for investors

If you’re new to Bitcoin (BTC), you might be curious about where it comes from. Unlike traditional money printed by central banks, Bitcoin is generated through a process called mining. The people behind this process are called miners. Understanding what Bitcoin mining is and what makes it sustainable can help you make more informed long-term investment decisions.

Research Newsletter

Each week the 21Shares Research team will publish our data-driven insights into the crypto asset world through this newsletter. Please direct any comments, questions, and words of feedback to research@21shares.com

Disclaimer

The information provided does not constitute a prospectus or other offering material and does not contain or constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy securities in any jurisdiction. Some of the information published herein may contain forward-looking statements. Readers are cautioned that any such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks and uncertainties and that actual results may differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements as a result of various factors. The information contained herein may not be considered as economic, legal, tax or other advice and users are cautioned to base investment decisions or other decisions solely on the content hereof.

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REX Shares lanserar tre nya covered call ETFer i Europa

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REX Shares har inlett ett samarbete med HANetf för att lansera tre nya covered call ETFer i Europa.
  • REX Shares har inlett ett samarbete med HANetf för att lansera tre nya covered call ETFer i Europa.
  • De tre ETFerna är REX Tech Innovation Income & Growth UCITS ETF (ticker: FEGI), REX Tech Innovation Premium Income UCITS ETF (ticker: FEPI) och REX Crypto Equity Income & Growth UCITS ETF (ticker: CEGI).
  • Enligt en nyligen genomförd oberoende undersökning uttryckte fondväljare i hela Europa den största efterfrågan på strategier med covered call och räntebärande tillgångar inom hela spektrumet av aktiva ETFer.
  • ETFerna är noterade på London Stock Exchange, Xetra och Borsa Italiana.

HANetf, Europas första och enda oberoende white-label UCITS ETF och ETC-plattform, och ledande leverantör av digitala tillgångs-ETP:er, är glada att kunna tillkännage lanseringen av tre aktivt förvaltade covered call-ETFer från REX Shares.

REX Tech Innovation Income & Growth UCITS ETF

ISIN: IE000OBK3UE0

TER: 0,65 %

BörsBloomberg TickerRICSEDOLValuta
London Stock ExchangeFEGI LNFEGI.LBSD55C4USD
London Stock ExchangeFEPD LNFEPD.LBSD55D5GBP
XetraASWL GYASWL.DEBVBMG47EUR
Borsa ItalianaFEGI IMFEGI.MIBVBMJ15EUR

REX Tech Innovation Premium Income UCITS ETF

ISIN: IE000HF69TA9

TER: 0,65 %

BörsBloomberg TickerRICSEDOLValuta
London Stock ExchangeFEPI LNFEPI.LBSD5591USD
London Stock ExchangeFEPG LNFEPG.LBSD55B3GBP
XetraASWK GYASWK.DEBVBMG03EUR
Borsa ItalianaFEPI IMFEPI.MIBVBMG36EUR

REX Crypto Equity Income & Growth UCITS ETF

ISIN: IE0008BA4TY1

TER: 0,65 %

BörsBloomberg TickerRICSEDOLValuta
London Stock ExchangeCEGI LNCEGI.LBSD55F7USD
London Stock ExchangeCEPG LNCEPG.LBSD55G8GBP
XetraASWM GYASWM.DEBVBMG14EUR
Borsa ItalianaCEGI IMCEGI.MIBVBMG25EUR

Både FEGI och FEPI erbjuder exponering mot 20 ledande amerikansknoterade teknikaktier – inklusive FANG+-aktier – och strävar efter att generera månatliga intäkter genom covered call-strategier. FEGI skriver optioner på cirka 50 % av portföljen och balanserar intäkter och tillväxtpotential, medan FEPI använder en heltäckande strategi där man skriver calls upp till 10 % av kapitalet för att öka avkastningen utan att helt begränsa uppsidan.

Samtidigt fokuserar CEGI på 25 amerikansknoterade företag kopplade till krypto- och blockkedjeekosystemet och använder även en covered call-strategi på ~50 % i syfte att leverera attraktiva månatliga utbetalningar och fånga volatilitetsdrivna intäkter utan att väsentligt begränsa tillväxten.

De tre lanseringarna markerar REX Shares första inträde på den europeiska marknaden. Företaget förvaltar över 5 miljarder dollar i förvaltat kapital (AUM) över sina strategier i USA.

ETFer baserade på covered call och options ser betydande tillväxt i Europa och representerar nu 4,35 miljarder dollar i förvaltat kapital (AUM), efter att ha registrerat över 2,56 miljarder dollar i nettoflöden hittills i år. Enligt en nyligen genomförd oberoende undersökning uttryckte fondväljare i Europa den största efterfrågan på covered call- och räntebärande strategier inom hela spektrumet av aktiva ETFer (publicerat i HANetfs senaste Thematic & Active Review).

HANetf har nu fem covered call-produkter på sin plattform, enligt nedan:

HANetf Covered Call ProductsTicker
REX Tech Innovation Income & Growth UCITS ETFASWL
REX Tech Innovation Premium Income UCITS ETFASWK
REX Crypto Equity Income & Growth UCITS ETFASWM
YieldMax® Big Tech Option Income UCITS ETFYYYY
YieldMax® MSTR Option Income Strategy ETCM5TY

Kevin Gopaul, CIO på REX Financial, kommenterade: ”Vi är glada över att markera REX inträde på den europeiska marknaden med lanseringen av tre innovativa covered call-ETF:er. Optionsbaserade inkomststrategier har sett en explosionsartad tillväxt över hela världen, och vi har haft turen att spela en ledande roll i den rörelsen. Dessa strategier är utformade för investerare som söker avkastning samtidigt som de förblir fullt investerade i aktier, och vi är stolta över att kunna erbjuda en differentierad, aktivt förvaltad strategi för att generera intäkter från ledande amerikanska teknikledare och kryptorelaterade företag.”

Hector McNeil, medgrundare och VD för HANetf, kommenterade: ”Vi är glada över att samarbeta med REX Shares för att lansera tre nya covered call-ETFer i Europa. Tillgångsslaget har tagit fart i Europa nyligen, men vi tror att det bara har börjat. REX Shares strategi är beprövad i USA, och nu har europeiska investerare en chans att delta.

”Vi har nu 5 covered call-ETFer på HANetf-plattformen och 13 aktiva ETFer. Vi tror att båda dessa områden är redo för betydande tillväxt i Europa, och detta återspeglas i ökningen av förfrågningar vi har fått om att lansera aktiva och optionsbaserade ETFer.

”Vårt mål är alltid att bryta ner inträdesbarriärerna på den europeiska ETF-marknaden och göra det möjligt för kapitalförvaltare från hela världen att lansera sina börshandlade strategier på ett snabbt och kostnadseffektivt sätt. Vårt produktutbud blir alltmer mångsidigt i takt med att vi välkomnar fler partners till plattformen, vilket säkerställer att vi alltid är innovativa och erbjuder relevanta strategier till europeiska investerare.”

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WOEE ETF en aktiv globalfond från iShares

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iShares World Equity Enhanced Active UCITS ETF USD (Acc) (WOEE ETF) med ISIN IE000D8XC064, är en aktivt förvaltad ETF.

iShares World Equity Enhanced Active UCITS ETF USD (Acc) (WOEE ETF) med ISIN IE000D8XC064, är en aktivt förvaltad ETF.

Denna börshandlade fond investerar minst 70 procent i aktier från utvecklade marknader över hela världen. Upp till 30 procent av tillgångarna kan placeras i private equity-instrument, värdepapper med fast ränta med investment grade-rating och penningmarknadsinstrument. Värdepapper väljs utifrån hållbarhetskriterier och en kvantitativ investeringsmodell.

Den börshandlade fondens TER (total cost ratio) uppgår till 0,30 % p.a. iShares World Equity Enhanced Active UCITS ETF USD (Acc) är den enda ETF som följer iShares World Equity Enhanced Active-index. ETFen replikerar det underliggande indexets prestanda genom fullständig replikering (köper alla indexbeståndsdelar). Utdelningarna i ETFen ackumuleras och återinvesteras.

Denna ETF lanserades den 31 juli 2024 och har sin hemvist i Irland.

Investeringsmål

Fonden förvaltas aktivt och syftar till att uppnå långsiktig kapitaltillväxt på din investering, med hänvisning till MSCI World Index (”Riktmärket”) för avkastning.

Handla WOEE ETF

iShares World Equity Enhanced Active UCITS ETF USD (Acc) (WOEE ETF) är en europeisk börshandlad fond. Denna fond handlas på flera olika börser, till exempel Deutsche Boerse Xetra och London Stock Exchange.

Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETF genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel DEGIRONordnet, Aktieinvest och Avanza.

Börsnoteringar

BörsValutaKortnamn
Euronext AmsterdamUSDWOEE
XETRAEURWOEE
London Stock ExchangeGBPWOEE

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GOOGLALPHABET INC CLASS AKommunikationstjänster1.77US02079K3059USD
GOOGALPHABET INC CLASS CKommunikationstjänster1.45US02079K1079USD
METAMETA PLATFORMS INC CLASS AKommunikationstjänster1.42US30303M1027USD
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MAMASTERCARD INC CLASS AFinans1.26US57636Q1040USD

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