Nyheter
Markets Cheer Quantitative Easing
ETFS Multi-Asset Weekly Markets Cheer Quantitative Easing
Highlights
Chinese GDP and ECB’S QE provide a lift to cyclical commodities.
European bourses cheer on a bolder-than-expected QE programme.
Draghi comes to QE party, as focus moves to Greek election result.
Although the announcement of quantitative easing (QE) by the European Central Bank (ECB) was widely anticipated, the overall size was larger than expected. At EUR60bn a month until September 2016, the ECB will purchase more than a EUR1trn over the course of the programme. The ECB clearly wants the Euro area to move out of a deflationary mindset. Cyclical assets moved decisively higher, while gold, often seen as an alternative currency also gained on Fear of a further slump in the Euro as the ECB’s looks to boost its balance sheet. Today’s Greek Election outcome will no doubt bolster demand for haven assets as Europe contends with another period of uncertainty.
Commodities
Chinese GDP and ECB’S QE provide a lift to cyclical commodities. Chinese 2014 GDP was better than expected, warding off some of the gloom that has beset industrial metals lately. China is the world’s largest consumer of industrial metals and therefore its economic performance has a large bearing on the demand for these metals. The ECB’s moves to drag the laggard euro area economy out of a deflationary rut also acted as a catalyst to both industrial and precious metal gains. A growing euro area will bode well for industrial metal demand while fears that the euro currency will be debased by the ECB’s balance sheet expansion drove demand for gold and silver higher. With the gold to silver ratio having hit multi-year highs at the end of 2014, many investors see silver as a relatively cheaper way to gain exposure to hard assets. Arabica coffee fell 9.5% on the back of cooler weather easing stress on coffee bushes in Brazil this week. Natural gas fell 9.4% on the back of a return to milder weather conditions in US.
Equities
European bourses cheer on a bolder-than-expected QE programme. The bold and decisive move by the ECB, was met by equity market optimism, as market participants felt that the central bank had left its reticent past behind it and is willing to tackle its deflationary problems head-on. The DAX was marginally down on the day of the announcement, probably reflecting some of the German cynicism toward the risk-sharing elements of the expanded programme. Meanwhile gold miners traced the gold price higher with the DAXGlobal Goldmining Index gaining 5.9% in the week. China A-Shares had a volatile week, with the MSCI China A-Share Index falling 7.2% on Monday on the announcement of tighter regulations on margin lending and then rising 4.1% on Wednesday when better-than-expected GDP data was released. This week, US GDP figures will likely be the focal point for a market assessing the Federal Reserve’s capacity to raise interest rates.
Currencies
Draghi comes to QE party, as focus moves to Greek election result. The moves in the Euro suggest that the ECB’s new QE program surprised the market somewhat with its magnitude and timeframe. The open ended nature of the programme indicates a real commitment to doing ‘whatever it takes’, and the self determination of the balance sheet target makes the 2012 target level within easy reach. Last week’s announcement was a sharp contrast from its previous strategy which was characterised by reticence to undertake bold action. We expect that the ECB QE programme will lead to flatter yield curves across the Eurozone and that widening rate differentials will continue to weigh on the Euro against major currencies. The Greek election is the markets crosshairs this week and the Euro is likely to continue lower as concerns over Greece’s willingness to repay debtors linger ahead of the Feb 28th deadline for the expiry of its ECB funding programme.
Important Information
This communication has been issued and approved for the purpose of section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (”FCA”).
Den amerikanska centralbanken Federal Reserve sänkte räntorna med 0,25 % i veckan– men vad kan det betyda för den amerikanska aktiemarknaden?
Detta diagram följer S&P 500-indexet (orange linje) mot amerikanska räntor (blå linje) sedan 1990-talet.
Här är vad som hände med aktierna de senaste gångerna Fed började sänka räntorna från tidigare ränte”toppar”:
• 1995: aktierna steg (före dotcom-bubblan).
• 2000: aktierna föll (dotcom-bubblan sprack).
• 2007: ytterligare en björnmarknad (före finanskrisen 2008).
• 2019: aktierna steg först (sedan föll de in i Covid-kraschen 2020).
Fyra av fem gånger sammanföll räntesänkningarna med stora nedgångar. Men orsakerna var alltid olika. Korrelation innebär inte kausalitet.
Och nu, 2024/25, befinner vi oss i en ny sänkningscykel. Aktierna sjönk med cirka 20 % i början av 2025, men har sedan dess stigit till nya toppar. Frågan är, vad händer härnäst?
IncomeShares S&P500 Options (0DTE) ETP har exponering mot S&P 500 och säljer dagliga säljoptioner för potentiell inkomst.
Följ IncomeShares EU för marknadsinsikter.
HANetfs VD kommenterar kärnkraftsavtalet mellan Storbritannien och USA
WMSE ETF en global momentumfond som handlas i euro och pund
Federal Reserve sänkte räntorna med 0,25 %
ARAY ETP följer priset på kryptovalutan Raydium
Bellevue lanserar aktiv hälso-ETF på Xetra
Utdelningar och försvarsfonder lockade i augusti
Månadsutdelande ETFer uppdaterad med IncomeShares produkter
HANetfs analyserar hur ett fredsavtal kan påverka det europeiska försvaret
ADLT ETF investerar bara i riktigt långa amerikanska statsobligationer
Septembers utdelning i XACT Norden Högutdelande
-
Nyheter3 veckor sedanUtdelningar och försvarsfonder lockade i augusti
-
Nyheter4 veckor sedanMånadsutdelande ETFer uppdaterad med IncomeShares produkter
-
Nyheter4 veckor sedanHANetfs analyserar hur ett fredsavtal kan påverka det europeiska försvaret
-
Nyheter4 veckor sedanADLT ETF investerar bara i riktigt långa amerikanska statsobligationer
-
Nyheter2 veckor sedanSeptembers utdelning i XACT Norden Högutdelande
-
Nyheter4 veckor sedanFastställd utdelning i MONTDIV augusti 2025
-
Nyheter2 veckor sedanHANetf kommenterar mötet mellan Kina, Ryssland och Nordkorea vid militärparad
-
Nyheter4 veckor sedanAICT ETF investerar i obligationer utgivna av företag från tillväxtmarknader
