Commodity ETP Weekly Gold in Demand as Global Risks Linger

Highlights

Global risks drive US$435mn of inflows into long gold and oil ETPs.
Arabica coffee remains in focus on low crop expectations.
Price correction prompts US$6.3mn of inflows into ETFS Copper (COPA)

Gold ETPs saw the largest inflows since August 2012 last week, as lingering global risks lifted demand for safe havens. Fears of a further slump in the euro following the ECB quantitative easing announcement last week, and Greece once again threatening the Eurozone’s unity alongside continued geopolitical risks, are likely to continue to buoy gold prices and lift demand for alternative stores of value.

Global risks drive US$435mn of inflows into long gold and oil ETPs. Although the announcement of quantitative easing (QE) by the European Central Bank (ECB) was widely anticipated, the overall size was larger than expected. At EUR60bn a month until September 2016, the ECB will purchase more than a EUR1trn over the course of the programme. The ECB clearly wants the Euro area to move out of a deflationary mind-set. Fear of a further slump in the Euro as the ECB’s looks to boost its balance sheet buoyed the gold price and prompted US$294mn of inflows into our long gold ETPs. Safe havens are likely to remain in demand this week after the Syriza party won the Greek election yesterday, raising prospects that the country will seek to renegotiate the terms of its international bailout. At the same time, oil prices trended higher on Friday as news of Saudi King Abdullah’s death added to uncertainty in energy markets. While prices might remain weak for some time, inflows into long oil ETPs have totalled over US$572mn since the beginning of the year, showing investors are becoming increasingly confident in a price rebound.

Arabica coffee remains in focus on low crop expectations

Long coffee ETPs saw US$4mn of inflows last week as CONAB, the Brazilian forecasting authority, revised down its forecasts for the 2015/16 crop. Brazil is the biggest producer of Arabica coffee with 45% of global production. The development of the coffee trees in the country has been disappointing so far following extreme drought conditions last year. Although rainfall in November had eased the situation somewhat, since then the weather has turned dry again. This could result in a substantially lower crop this year and could prompt a price rally.

Price correction prompts US$6.3mn of inflows into ETFS Copper (COPA). Strong back-to-back weekly inflows into long copper ETPs highlights that investors deem the recent price slump excessive. China’s latest statistics showed that the country grew more than expected in 2014, at 7.4%, easing fears of a hard landing. Although China is turning its focus from construction and export dependent manufacturing to domestic consumption, demand for copper has remained strong in 2014, with imports rising for the 5th consecutive month in November. While low energy prices have dragged down metal prices by reducing their cost of production, we think negative sentiment, rather than weak fundamentals, is weighing on the copper price at the moment.

Key events to watch this week. This week Europe will remain in focus, as the new Greek government seeks to renegotiate the terms of its bailout that is set to expire at the end of February. After the BOC and the ECB surprised markets by cutting rates and announcing a full-blown QE programme respectively, the FOMC meeting on Wednesday will be closely monitored by investors for any signs of a delay in tightening by the Fed. Gold would likely benefit from the Fed highlighting any potential spill-over effect on the US economy from weak oil prices and global risks.

Video Presentation

Simona Gambarini, Research Analyst at ETF Securities provides an analysis of last week’s performance, flow and trading activity in commodity exchange traded products and a look at the week ahead.

Important Information

This communication has been provided by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority.