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Gold inflows rebound towards the end of the year

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Gold ETPs saw inflows of US$32mn for the final week in December. In Currency ETPs we saw US$10mn and US$11mn respectively for the US dollar and Euro short positions.
  • Gold ETPs saw inflows of US$32mn for the final week in December.
  • Crude oil ETPs saw further outflows of US$28mn last week, we have seen 22 consecutive weeks of outflows highlighting pessimism amongst investors.
  • In Currency ETPs we saw US$10mn and US$11mn respectively for the US dollar and Euro short positions.

The flows for the final week in December were understandably low for most commodities with the exception of gold and oil.

Gold ETPs saw inflows of US$32mn for the final week in December which we believe is a rebound following the December 14th US Federal Reserve interest rate hike coupled with the escalating worries in North Korea and Iran. The inflows follow a month of net outflows totalling US$106mn. For the full year gold ETPs saw inflows totalling US$513mn leaving total assets under management (AUM) at US$12.8bn. Looking across other precious metals all saw inflows totalling US$124mn for the full year, this was helped by inflows into silver and platinum representing 10% and 15% of AUM respectively. Palladium, was the only precious metal to see outflows, totalling US$166mn, likely due to profit taking after posting returns for the full year of 56%, well above Gold’s full year returns of 11%.

Crude oil ETPs saw further outflows of US$28mn last week, we have seen 22 consecutive weeks of outflows highlighting pessimism amongst investors over the rise in prices over the second half of 2017. The US pressure over extending sanctions in Iran, and the recent unrest there, have pushed up oil prices. Oil investors remain very sensitive to geopolitical unrest in Iran, the third largest producer in OPEC. We believe the impact has been exaggerated. With the US expanding supply and OPEC likely to under deliver on its promise to consistently curb production, we expect the supply to grow. At the same time demand is unlikely to continue to grow at the current pace, with prices having gained 33% over the past year. We expect the oil price to remain in a range from US$45 to US$60/bbl for 2018, although a more significant geopolitical upset in the Middle East could cause temporary price spikes.

In Currency ETPs we saw US$10mn and US$11mn respectively for the US dollar and Euro short positions during the month of December. Over the same period both the GBP and NOK saw inflows in to long positions of US$6.9mn and US$5.4mn respectively.

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