Introducing a new monthly report co-authored by ETF Securities Research and Roubini Global Economics Europe’s Political Hurdles
Europe’s Political Hurdles
This report provides an update to themes introduced in our Quarterly Outlook, published in March. Our focus this month is on Europe’s fractious politics and the implications for our key theme of European growth.
We are seeing a growth improvement throughout most of Europe on low interest rates and low oil prices, but fiscal support and structural reforms are needed to make the recovery substantial and persistent. And a heavy political calendar could spoil the party.
Key risks coming up this year, and weighing on business sentiment and investment, include the UK general election in May, with a likely hung parliament, continuing Greek negotiations, the Catalan election in Spain (a proxy referendum on independence) and the Spanish general election later in 2015/early 2016.
What to watch this month: UK general election (May 7); Bank of England monetary policy committee (May 11) for indications of the timing of the first hike; major debt payments due from Greece to its official-sector creditors (May 8-15); Spanish regional elections (May 24) for indications about how the general election might progress.
This communication has been provided by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”). ETFS UK is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (the ”FCA”).