ETF Securities Equity Research: Europe is near to closing the gap with the US
Highlights
Europe’s recovery is moving towards expansion while the US is in the late stages of this cycle.
The impact of tighter monetary policy, higher wage growth coupled with the stronger US dollar will weigh on US corporate profitability.
Earnings growth projections in Europe are expected to bridge the gap with the US by Q4 2018.
Europe’s valuation discount to the US is rooted in key sectors.
The US equity market has been steadily outperforming its European peers since the global financial crisis. The current gap between the two markets have widened to its highest level since then. The US equity markets’ outperformance can be justified by the past accommodative monetary policy, strong earnings momentum and technological innovation. In sharp contrast, the Eurozone has had to contend with two recessions since the financial crisis. Nevertheless, despite political headwinds, Europe is certainly appearing to turn a corner with a more favourable economic backdrop starting to feed into corporate profitability.
Macro outlook supports Eurozone
The Eurozone is witnessing higher services and manufacturing activity in comparison to the US. Added to that Q4 2017 Eurozone GDP growth (2.7% y-o-y) has outpaced the US (2.4% y-o-y) for eight consecutive quarters (Source: Bloomberg). Eurozone GDP growth has been heavily reliant on strong external demand. However as France and the periphery re-emerge, the expansion cycle is being powered by domestic demand. Since the start of 2014, we have witnessed a steady reduction in the negative output gaps in Spain, Italy and the Rest of Europe (RoEA).
This amount of slack in the economy is useful in understanding the interplay between supply and demand and gauging the phase of the economic cycle. The Eurozone will require several years of above-trend growth in order to absorb the slack in the economy. For this reason, the build-up of inflation is likely to be gradual. In comparison, the US is far deeper into its recovery and inflation is likely to garner pace significantly.
Wage growth to impact US profit margins
Despite the rising inflation outlook in the US, wage growth (known to be a lagging economic indicator) has been anaemic for more than a decade. However, the wage increase in January 2018, the strongest y-o-y gain since 2009, marked a turn of events. With the unemployment rate below most estimates of its natural rate and wage growth expected to accelerate, the Federal Reserve (Fed) has enough ammunition to hike interest rates faster than anticipated. The European Central Bank (ECB) will continue to remain data dependent.
For now, the existing slack in the labour market will justify a slower path to normalising monetary policy. The likely consequence of such a view is that the Fed will tighten monetary policy much faster than the ECB. In turn, the impact of higher wage growth in the US is likely to erode profit margins, a trend that we are starting to see as US margins plateau while European margins continue to pace higher.
Furthermore, the deterioration of the US fiscal balance subsequent to the US tax reform and the substantial increase in spending should support the US dollar higher. This could materially affect profits of export-oriented sectors in the US.
Earnings gap could narrow by Q4 2018
The fourth quarter reporting season has been strong for both the US and Europe, evident from the blended earnings growth rate of 14% and 37% respectively (Source: Bloomberg).
Expansion of revenue growth has been a fundamental support for the US equity markets while companies exposed to high operating leverage have benefitted the most on European equity markets. The best performing European sectors in Q4 2017 were energy, basic materials, financials and consumer goods. While US markets saw the highest earnings growth across technology, basic materials and energy. Looking ahead, the positive trajectory of Eurozone Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMIs), even taking into consideration the recent pull back in February, indicate European profit margins are set to expand further.
Pace of earnings projections favour Europe
Looking ahead, the projections for 2018 Earnings Per Share (EPS) growth continue to rise for both economies. However, the pace is slowing in the US in sharp contrast to Europe where estimates are set to accelerate towards year-end. Energy and materials sector are contributing the most to the pace of revisions going forward.
Europe trading at a discount to US
Eurozone equities have been trading at a discount to US equities since 2011. Cyclically Adjusted Price to Earnings (CAPE) ratios at 22x earnings in Europe are currently trading at a 13 percent discount to the US at 25x, in spite of the recent sell off (Source: Bloomberg).
European companies have historically paid out a greater share of their earnings to shareholders in dividends than US companies. Higher dividend yields in Europe at 3.3% compared to US equities at 1.9% enhance the case for investing in European stocks (Source: Bloomberg).
In light of the above discussion, we expect Europe to bridge the gap with US equities over the course of the year supported by higher earnings projections, an improving macro backdrop and lower valuations. While political headwinds linger, evident from the success of the anti-establishment Five Star Movement in the recent Italian elections, we believe it is unlikely to derail Europe’s economic expansion.
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As April winds down, markets remain on edge, with escalating tariffs and renewed trade tensions keeping volatility in focus. In this summary of our full-length newsletter, we spotlight gold and gold equities, both of which have surged to record levels. We also take a step back from the day-to-day noise in crypto to explore the broader shifts in the regulatory landscape in our latest Whitepaper and present Celestia in detail. Finally, we assess how Moat indexes have held up and evolved amid the turbulence.
Gold & Gold mining equities tend to shine during stress periods
Source: VanEck, World Gold Council.
Gold has attracted renewed interest from investors amid concerns about inflation, currency volatility, and overall market uncertainty. Gold mining companies have recently reported improved profit margins and cash generation, with some initiating share buybacks and maintaining relatively strong balance sheets. Despite these developments, many continue to trade below their historical valuation averages.
While historical trends indicate that gold and gold mining equities have outperformed during certain periods of market stress, these patterns may not repeat under different economic conditions. Performance can be influenced by a range of factors including interest rates, central bank policy, geopolitical developments, and investor sentiment.
⚖️ Whitepaper Highlights: How New Crypto Regulations May Shape the Future
Cryptocurrencies are entering a new era. With the re-election of Donald Trump and the implementation of the European Union’s Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) regulation, digital assets are moving into a landscape defined not just by innovation, but also by regulatory clarity.
MiCA’s structured and transparent approach aims to promote legitimacy, safeguard investors, and enhance trust in digital asset markets across Europe. It could also serve as a blueprint for other jurisdictions looking to regulate crypto effectively.
Most blockchains, like Ethereum or Bitcoin, are monolithic which means they perform all major functions (consensus, data availability, and execution) on a single layer. This design ensures security but according to new modular networks, limits scalability and flexibility.
The modular blockchain thesis, which Celestia is leading, proposes separation of layers and respective responsibilities in the network.
Note: This article in not accessible to our UK readers.
🌊 Riding the Gold Wave
Chasing the Vein: Fund Flows into Gold Miners
Source: Mining.com. Data as of 21 March 2025. Note: Data covers 493 funds with combined assets under management of $62 billion.
U.S. equity markets experienced significant declines during the month of March. Meanwhile, spot gold price recorded new all-time highs, surpassing the $3,000 per ounce mark on 14 March and closing at a record price of $3123.57 on March 31, a 9.30% ($265.73) monthly gain. As of 31 March, gold prices have risen by 93.61% over the past five years (1). Investors should keep in mind that past performance is not representative of future results.
The gold miners, as represented by the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index (GDMNTR), outperformed significantly, up 15.51% during March (2). This gain reflects both their operational leverage to rising gold prices and market perceptions of relative value. However, gold miners can also be subject to heightened volatility, operational risks, and sensitivity to commodity price swings.
While gold and gold equities may serve as diversifiers in a portfolio due to their historically low correlations with many asset classes, investors should remain mindful of the inherent risks, including price volatility, currency movements, and shifts in investor sentiment that can lead to rapid reversals in performance.
Market turbulence in March weighed on stocks. The Moat Index was not immune to the market turmoil, as it declined along with the broad U.S. equity market ending the month lower. However, the Moat Index showed resilience relative to the S&P 500—thanks in part to defensive sector resilience and underweight exposure to mega-caps.
At the same time, the SMID Moat Index lagged small and mid-caps in March. Smaller U.S. stocks were also impacted by global trade tensions and economic growth concerns with the broad small- and mid-cap benchmarks falling during the month. However, year-to-date, the SMID Moat Index remains ahead of the broader small- and mid-cap markets.
(1) Source: World Gold Council, ICE Data Services, FactSet Research Systems Inc.
(2) Source: Financial Times.
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BBVA Acción Eurostoxx 50 ETF FI Cotizado Armonizado (BBVAE ETF) med ISIN ES0105321030, strävar efter att spåra EURO STOXX® 50-index. EURO STOXX® 50-indexet följer de 50 största företagen i euroområdet.
Den börshandlade fondens TER (total cost ratio) uppgår till 0,20 % p.a. ETFen replikerar resultatet av det underliggande indexet genom full replikering (köper alla indexbeståndsdelar). Utdelningarna i ETFen delas ut till investerarna (halvårsvis).
BBVA Acción Eurostoxx 50 ETF FI Cotizado Armonizado har tillgångar på 133 miljoner euro under förvaltning. Denna ETF lanserades den 3 oktober 2006 och har sin hemvist i Spanien.
Beskrivning BBVA Acción Eurostoxx 50 ETF FI Cotizado Armonizado
Med BBVA Acción Eurostoxx 50 ETF FI Cotizado Armonizado deltar investerare i ökningen av värdet på aktierna i de 50 största konglomeraten i euroområdet (euroområdet). Euro Stoxx 50-indexet inkluderar aktier från 8 länder i euroområdet: Belgien, Finland, Frankrike, Tyskland, Irland, Italien, Nederländerna och Spanien.
Explore Dogecoin’s impact on crypto, turning internet memes into cultural and financial assets.
𝕋𝕚𝕞𝕖 ℂ𝕠𝕕𝕖𝕤:
00:00 – Intro
00:27 – Where do Memes come from?
03:13 – What are some of the first Memes you remember?
10:28 – Do these things have value?
14:04 – The different types of cryptocurrencies
17:20 – How did Dogecoin start?
24:26 – What is some of the utility?
28:36 – How does it fit into the portfolio?
30:38 – Final thoughts
Research Newsletter
Each week the 21Shares Research team will publish our data-driven insights into the crypto asset world through this newsletter. Please direct any comments, questions, and words of feedback to research@21shares.com
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