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Europe is near to closing the gap with the US

Publicerad

8 år sedan

den

9 mars, 2018

Redaktionen

ETF Securities Equity Research: Europe is near to closing the gap with the US

Highlights

Europe’s recovery is moving towards expansion while the US is in the late stages of this cycle.
The impact of tighter monetary policy, higher wage growth coupled with the stronger US dollar will weigh on US corporate profitability.
Earnings growth projections in Europe are expected to bridge the gap with the US by Q4 2018.
Europe’s valuation discount to the US is rooted in key sectors.

The US equity market has been steadily outperforming its European peers since the global financial crisis. The current gap between the two markets have widened to its highest level since then. The US equity markets’ outperformance can be justified by the past accommodative monetary policy, strong earnings momentum and technological innovation. In sharp contrast, the Eurozone has had to contend with two recessions since the financial crisis. Nevertheless, despite political headwinds, Europe is certainly appearing to turn a corner with a more favourable economic backdrop starting to feed into corporate profitability.

Macro outlook supports Eurozone

The Eurozone is witnessing higher services and manufacturing activity in comparison to the US. Added to that Q4 2017 Eurozone GDP growth (2.7% y-o-y) has outpaced the US (2.4% y-o-y) for eight consecutive quarters (Source: Bloomberg). Eurozone GDP growth has been heavily reliant on strong external demand. However as France and the periphery re-emerge, the expansion cycle is being powered by domestic demand. Since the start of 2014, we have witnessed a steady reduction in the negative output gaps in Spain, Italy and the Rest of Europe (RoEA).

This amount of slack in the economy is useful in understanding the interplay between supply and demand and gauging the phase of the economic cycle. The Eurozone will require several years of above-trend growth in order to absorb the slack in the economy. For this reason, the build-up of inflation is likely to be gradual. In comparison, the US is far deeper into its recovery and inflation is likely to garner pace significantly.

Wage growth to impact US profit margins

Despite the rising inflation outlook in the US, wage growth (known to be a lagging economic indicator) has been anaemic for more than a decade. However, the wage increase in January 2018, the strongest y-o-y gain since 2009, marked a turn of events. With the unemployment rate below most estimates of its natural rate and wage growth expected to accelerate, the Federal Reserve (Fed) has enough ammunition to hike interest rates faster than anticipated. The European Central Bank (ECB) will continue to remain data dependent.

For now, the existing slack in the labour market will justify a slower path to normalising monetary policy. The likely consequence of such a view is that the Fed will tighten monetary policy much faster than the ECB. In turn, the impact of higher wage growth in the US is likely to erode profit margins, a trend that we are starting to see as US margins plateau while European margins continue to pace higher.

Furthermore, the deterioration of the US fiscal balance subsequent to the US tax reform and the substantial increase in spending should support the US dollar higher. This could materially affect profits of export-oriented sectors in the US.

Earnings gap could narrow by Q4 2018

The fourth quarter reporting season has been strong for both the US and Europe, evident from the blended earnings growth rate of 14% and 37% respectively (Source: Bloomberg).

Expansion of revenue growth has been a fundamental support for the US equity markets while companies exposed to high operating leverage have benefitted the most on European equity markets. The best performing European sectors in Q4 2017 were energy, basic materials, financials and consumer goods. While US markets saw the highest earnings growth across technology, basic materials and energy. Looking ahead, the positive trajectory of Eurozone Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMIs), even taking into consideration the recent pull back in February, indicate European profit margins are set to expand further.

Pace of earnings projections favour Europe

Looking ahead, the projections for 2018 Earnings Per Share (EPS) growth continue to rise for both economies. However, the pace is slowing in the US in sharp contrast to Europe where estimates are set to accelerate towards year-end. Energy and materials sector are contributing the most to the pace of revisions going forward.

Europe trading at a discount to US

Eurozone equities have been trading at a discount to US equities since 2011. Cyclically Adjusted Price to Earnings (CAPE) ratios at 22x earnings in Europe are currently trading at a 13 percent discount to the US at 25x, in spite of the recent sell off (Source: Bloomberg).

European companies have historically paid out a greater share of their earnings to shareholders in dividends than US companies. Higher dividend yields in Europe at 3.3% compared to US equities at 1.9% enhance the case for investing in European stocks (Source: Bloomberg).

In light of the above discussion, we expect Europe to bridge the gap with US equities over the course of the year supported by higher earnings projections, an improving macro backdrop and lower valuations. While political headwinds linger, evident from the success of the anti-establishment Five Star Movement in the recent Italian elections, we believe it is unlikely to derail Europe’s economic expansion.

Important Information

This communication has been issued and approved for the purpose of section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (“ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (the “FCA”).

The information contained in this communication is for your general information only and is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investments may go down in value.

This document is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares or securities in the United States or any province or territory thereof. Neither this document nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States.

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IXUA ETF är en globalfond som inte investerar i USA

Publicerad

3 timmar sedan

den

10 december, 2025

Redaktionen

iShares MSCI World ex-USA UCITS ETF USD (Acc) (IXUA ETF) med ISIN IE000R4ZNTN3, försöker följa MSCI World ex USA-indexet. MSCI World ex USA-index spårar stora och medelstora aktier från utvecklade marknader över hela världen (exklusive USA).

Den börshandlade fondens TER (total cost ratio) uppgår till 0,15 % p.a. iShares MSCI World ex-USA UCITS ETF USD (Acc) är den billigaste ETF som följer MSCI World ex USA-index. ETF:n replikerar det underliggande indexets prestanda genom samplingsteknik (köper ett urval av de mest relevanta indexbeståndsdelarna). Utdelningarna i ETFen ackumuleras och återinvesteras.

iShares MSCI World ex-USA UCITS ETF USD (Acc) är en mycket liten ETF med tillgångar på 10 miljoner euro under förvaltning. Denna ETF lanserades den 24 januari 2025 och har sin hemvist i Irland.

Varför IXUA?

Indexet mäter utvecklingen för stora och medelstora aktier i utvecklade marknadsländer exklusive USA som uppfyller MSCI:s kriterier för storlek, likviditet och free-float.

Investeringsmål

Fonden strävar efter att uppnå en totalavkastning, med hänsyn till både kapital- och inkomstavkastning, vilket återspeglar avkastningen från MSCI World ex USA Index, fondens jämförelseindex (”Index”).

Handla IXUA ETF

iShares MSCI World ex-USA UCITS ETF USD (Acc) (IXUA ETF) är en europeisk börshandlad fond. Denna fond handlas på flera olika börser, till exempel Deutsche Boerse Xetra och Euronext Amsterdam.

Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETF genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel DEGIRO, Nordnet, SAVR och Avanza.

Börsnoteringar

Börs	Valuta	Kortnamn
Euronext Amsterdam	USD	XUSE
XETRA	EUR	IXUA

Största innehav

Kortnamn	Namn	Sektor	Vikt (%)	ISIN	Valuta
ASML	ASML HOLDING NV	Informationsteknologi	1,54	NL0010273215	EUR
SAP	SAP	Informationsteknologi	1,53	DE0007164600	EUR
NOVO B	NOVO NORDISK CLASS B	Health Care	1,47	DK0062498333	DKK
AZN	ASTRAZENECA PLC	Health Care	1,18	GB0009895292	GBP
NESN	NESTLE SA	Dagligvaror	1,17	CH0038863350	CHF
ROG	ROCHE HOLDING PAR AG	Health Care	1,16	CH0012032048	CHF
NOVN	NOVARTIS AG	Health Care	1,11	CH0012005267	CHF
SHEL	SHELL PLC	Energy	1,05	GB00BP6MXD84	GBP
MC	LVMH	Sällanköpsvaror	1,03	FR0000121014	EUR
7203	TOYOTA MOTOR CORP	Sällanköpsvaror	1,02	JP3633400001	JPY

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How to spot potential winners. Get the latest crypto insights from 21shares

Publicerad

4 timmar sedan

den

10 december, 2025

Redaktionen

Welcome to the State of Crypto, the weekly investor-focused newsletter from 21shares that dives into the key trends driving the digital asset landscape.

This week, we’re exploring:

How to identify potential winners in digital assets?

As this asset class matures, the noise grows louder, making it all too easy for investors to swing between hype and fear. This report helps investors navigate the $3 trillion crypto market by distinguishing Bitcoin’s store-of-value role from the economic models of platforms like Ethereum and Solana. Using security, retention, revenue, and adoption metrics, it highlights the fundamentals that matter most in identifying long-term winners across the sector.

EY’s Paul Brody on Ethereum, privacy, and enterprise readiness

In the latest Off the Block episode, EY’s Global Blockchain Leader Paul Brody identifies privacy on public networks as the central hurdle for enterprise adoption, discussing new solutions, and forecasting that 2026 will be the “golden year” of Ethereum privacy.

Reserve your spot: discuss the 21shares Market Outlook 2026 with its authors

To own the future, you must first be able to see it. The 21shares State of Crypto: Market Outlook 2026, to be published December 11, is essential reading for navigating the next chapter of the digital asset economy. Secure your spot for a live webinar with the authors on Wednesday, December 17th, at 4:00 PM CET and seize the opportunity to ask your questions firsthand.

Welcome to the State of Crypto, the weekly investor-focused newsletter from 21shares that dives into the key trends driving the digital asset landscape.

Börshandlade fonder utbildning

This week, we’re exploring:

Bitcoin: where things stand and what to monitor

Following a month of expectation resets, the crypto market’s tight connection to macro policy and liquidity is clear. Our research team provides an analysis of Bitcoin’s recent price drop and the signals to monitor right now. Our conviction is that the current market structure is built for consolidation, not reversal, barring any systemic risks.

ETF marknadsnyheter

Will Ethereum become the infrastructure backbone of Wall Street?

Tune in to Off the Block’s latest episode to hear why Vivek Raman made the switch from traditional finance to crypto, his company’s mission to rewire the infrastructure of Wall Street using Ethereum, and how the tokenization of real-world assets (RWAs), ETFs and stablecoins are powering the future of digital assets.

Aktivt förvaltade fonder

Quicklinks

“If you exclude the Magnificent Seven, the S&P isn’t up by much… But AI is clearly driving sentiment. It’s the shiny new toy on Wall Street.” – Adrian Fritz, Chief Investment Strategist (via CoinDesk)

Why is Jeff Bezos’ shareholder letter from 2000 relevant to Crypto today? Global Head of Research Eliézer Ndinga explains.

What we’re following

The next wave of economic data is critical for refining views on economic strength. Early December’s CPI and PPI reports will be especially important for confirming or adjusting inflation expectations ahead of the next Fed meeting.
Data on the labor market (such as job numbers and the unemployment rate) will also be released, which are vital for understanding wage and employment trends.
The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, is expected on December 5. This directly steers Fed expectations and drives risk appetite for crypto.
The Employment Situation (Non-Farm Payrolls or NFP), a crucial labor report, is also expected on December 5. It provides key insight into economic strength, which can cause strong volatility in crypto through shifting rate expectations.

Connect with us today

If you have any questions or want to discuss a product in detail, please visit our website at www.21shares.com.

Research Newsletter

Each week the 21Shares Research team will publish our data-driven insights into the crypto asset world through this newsletter. Please direct any comments, questions, and words of feedback to research@21shares.com

Disclaimer

The information provided does not constitute a prospectus or other offering material and does not contain or constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy securities in any jurisdiction. Some of the information published herein may contain forward-looking statements. Readers are cautioned that any such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks and uncertainties and that actual results may differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements as a result of various factors. The information contained herein may not be considered as economic, legal, tax or other advice and users are cautioned to base investment decisions or other decisions solely on the content hereof.

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DVDE ETF investerar i europeiska utdelningsaktier

Publicerad

5 timmar sedan

den

10 december, 2025

Redaktionen

Franklin European Quality Dividend UCITS ETF EUR Accumulation (DVDE ETF) med ISIN IE000IMGE5W5, syftar till att ge exponering mot högkvalitativa aktier med stort och medelstort börsvärde med hög och ihållande utdelning i utvecklade länder i Europa.

ETFens totala kostnadskvot (TER) uppgår till 0,25 procent per år. ETFen replikerar det underliggande indexets resultat genom fysisk replikering. Erhållen utdelning återinvesteras.

Franklin European Quality Dividend UCITS ETF EUR Accumulation är en mycket liten ETF med 2 miljon euro i förvaltat kapital. ETFen lanserades den 2 september 2025 och har sitt säte i Irland.

Handla DVDE ETF

Franklin European Quality Dividend UCITS ETF EUR Accumulation (DVDE ETF) är en europeisk börshandlad fond. Denna fond handlas på flera olika börser, till exempel Deutsche Boerse Xetra.

Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETF genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel Nordnet, SAVR, DEGIRO och Avanza.