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China Easing Supports Cyclical Commodities
China Easing Supports Cyclical Commodities. ETFS Physical Platinum (PHPT) sees US$6mn of inflows on price declines.
ETFS Nickel (NICK) receives US$5.7mn of inflows as recent price drop is seen as entry opportunity by some investors.
Both long and short natural gas ETPs see inflows as price jumps on lower than expected inventory build-up.
Lowest wheat price since February drives US$5.9mn of inflows into long wheat ETPs.
The end of the 21-week long South African strikes dominated the news last week, with both platinum and palladium suffering a correction as the risk premium was removed. Meanwhile, investors took advantage of recent price corrections in a number of commodities to accumulate, with platinum, nickel and wheat ETPs seeing inflows. With the most recent data from China rebounding and the authorities adding more stimulus through reserve requirement cuts and further fiscal easing, we expect cyclical commodities to continue to perform well.
ETFS Physical Platinum (PHPT) sees US$6mn of inflows on price declines. The platinum price dropped sharply on Thursday after Amplats, Implats and Lonmin announced an “in principle” agreement had been reached with the Association of Mineworkers and Construction Union (AMCU), ending the 21-week long strike. According to our calculations, over 1moz of platinum and 500koz of palladium were lost in the strikes and it will be some time before most mines are brought back to working condition. Given that there is no strike premium priced into platinum prices now and a pick-up in global demand, we believe the correction will be short-lived. At the same time, profit taking drove US$6mn out of palladium ETPs as the palladium price reached a 13-year high at US$864oz last week.
ETFS Nickel (NICK) receives US$5.7mn of inflows as recent price drop is seen as entry opportunity by some investors. Nickel price slumped 5.6% last week as some Chinese stainless steel mills announced they are now willing to pay less for nickel pig iron, a cheaper alternative to pure nickel. However, nickel is up 30% year to date, prompting Glencore’s CEO to announce that rising nickel prices are making mining Loma Miranda in Dominican Republic increasingly likely. Meanwhile, ETFS Tin (TINM) saw US$8.4mn of outflows, the biggest in over 16 months, on higher-than-expected exports numbers from Indonesia. The latter introduced export restrictions back in July 1, 2013 but since then smuggling has increased forcing Indonesia to temporarily seize a ship in March, delaying shipments out of Indonesia.
Both long and short natural gas ETPs see inflows as price jumps on lower than expected inventory build-up. Natural gas price increased the most since February as the EIA announced stockpiles increased by 107bcf vs 110bcf expected. With the low season for natural gas demand fast approaching, we believe the Henry Hub natural gas price will decline in the coming months. At the same time, ETFS WTI Crude Oil (CRUD) saw US$0.6mn of outflows on profit taking, as price hovered near US$107.
Lowest wheat price since February drives US$5.9mn of inflows into long wheat ETPs. The USDA revised the global wheat crop up by 4.6mn bushels for the incoming season. However, consumption was also revised upwards, meaning that the market is likely to be fairly balanced this year. At the same time, ETFS Corn (CORN) saw US$3.6mn of outflows as abundant supply continues to weigh on price.
Key events to watch this week. This week the focus will likely be on the FOMC meeting on Wednesday as investors will look for clues on the timing of a potential rate hike after the latest positive economic numbers. Bank of England minutes will also be looked at after Carney declared interest rates may be rising sooner than expected
Important Information
This communication has been issued and approved for the purpose of section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (”FCA”).
Investerare tar ut pengar från ESG-fonder i rekordfart: amerikanska miljö-, social- och styrelsefonder (ESG) redovisade rekordstora utflöden på 20 miljarder dollar 2024.
Detta kommer efter ett utflöde på 18 miljarder dollar 2023 och bara 3 miljarder dollar i inflöden 2022.
Dessutom har rekordmånga fonder tagit bort ESG och relaterade fraser från sina namn förra året.
Sedan januari 2022 har S&P Global Clean Energy Index sjunkit 46 %.
ESG-teman är underpresterande.
Källa: Bloomberg, The Kobeissi Letter
In our 2025 Crypto Investment Outlook, we emphasized the importance of applications in driving blockchain adoption and increasing demand for native tokens. With that in mind, it caught our attention that by January 2025—well past the US election predictions of November 2024—Polymarket had expanded into sports-related prediction markets, reaching 450,000 monthly active traders.
Ethereum’s success depends on the rise of useful applications that drive demand for its infrastructure, which is why the recent growth of platforms like Polymarket should strengthen ETH’s investment thesis, even as it underperforms Bitcoin and competitors like Solana. Time will tell, but we believe investors are currently underestimating ETH’s value, especially given the success of Polymarket, stablecoins, and other platforms dependent on Ethereum.
Market Highlights
Polymarket’s new milestone
Polymarket reached 450,000 monthly active traders, as the platform has diversified it betting pools into sports-related prediction markets.
With a substantial trading volume of $1.6 billion in January alone, we may be witnessing the birth of a key user-driven application.
This milestone connects to our Crypto Investment Outlook for 2025, in which we explained that user-driven applications are key to adoption.
Bitcoin reserve on US agenda
Trump’s “crypto czar” David Sacks stated that a bitcoin reserve is a priority, though it’s still in early stages.
The White House plans to establish formal communication with the crypto industry, with an official announcement expected in the future.
Republican lawmakers are forming a bipartisan working group to draft crypto regulations, supporting Trump’s broader digital asset policies.
Trading volume record on ETH ETFs
US Spot ETH ETFs witnessed record trading volumes of $1.5 billion amid Trump tariff turmoil.
This record volume, aligned with a positive $420M net inflow, supports the growing interest and importance of regulated crypto products.
Market Metrics
This week was underwhelming for the NCITM (-3.4%), following Trump’s announcement of new tariffs on steel and aluminum. Despite these challenges, US crypto-regulated products demonstrated resilience, recording a net inflow of $624 million. The confirmation of a BTC reserve being a top priority for the new administration, signals a great tailwind for the future of digital assets.
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