ETF Securities Weekly Flows Analysis – Weaker US dollar boosts precious metals

• Mixed economic data and minutes from the Federal Reserve’s December meeting weighed on the US dollar, prompting US$69mn of inflows into precious metals.
• Investors reduced exposure to ETPs tracking long EUR/USD positions by US$95.7mn last week.
• Energy prices ticked down last week due to a massive increase of US oil inventory and milder temperatures in the US.

The gold price rose 1.4% on the week after the US dollar weakened following a somewhat dovish Fed minutes. Gold ETPs saw US$40.5mn of inflows last week. The minutes of the FOMC December meeting revealed that the Fed is optimistic about growth prospects for the US economy, giving more scope for rising interest rates. However, the FOMC continues to see risks to this outlook, notably regarding fiscal policy and the negative consequences of a stronger dollar. Overall, market participants revised rate hike expectations downward, suggesting the next rate hike would take place in June. The weaker dollar coupled with stronger US and Chinese manufacturing data also boosted platinum and palladium prices, which have gained 5.7% and 10.2% respectively last week.

Investors reduced positions in ETPs tracking long EUR/USD. The US employment report showed wage growth rising 0.4% over December – the strongest since 2009, despite the disappointing 156k job gains on the month. The mixed December US jobs report and Fed minutes halted the US dollar rise that started in November, prompting some investors to pull back their bullish bets. Short USD long EUR ETPs saw US$95.7mn outflows last week.

Crude oil ETPs experienced a US$17.9mn withdrawal after the US Department of Energy reported a massive rise of distillate inventories. The oil price moved slightly upward on the news that Saudi Arabia cut its crude oil production by at least 486k barrels a day since October. However, the oil price pared gains after the US inventory data showed an extra 18mn barrels to gasoline and diesel stockpiles last week. In addition, US natural gas and carbon prices both collapsed by 10.8% and 23%, respectively last week. The price declines were triggered by predictions of milder temperatures in the US, and a drop of EU carbon allowances in the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS).

What to watch this week. Investors will closely watch the industrial production data and employment figures for the Eurozone to gauge the effectiveness of the ECB’s monetary stimulus. Inflation data in China and US retail sales will also be monitored by market participants.

Video Presentation

Morgane Delledonne, Fixed Income Strategist at ETF Securities provides an analysis of last week’s performance, flow and trading activity in commodity exchange traded products and a look at the week ahead.

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ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
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