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US dollar gives transitory boost to commodities

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Commodity Monthly Monitor US dollar gives transitory boost to commodities Your reference guide to commodity markets. Includes the latest outlook for each commodity

Commodity Monthly Monitor US dollar gives transitory boost to commodities Your reference guide to commodity markets. Includes the latest outlook for each commodity sector and major developments for individual commodities.

Summary

  • Global oversupply projected to continue for 2017/2018.
  • Weaker US dollar provides additional support to the improving fundamentals for industrial metals.
  • Energy rally looking stretched.
  • Further upside for precious metals amidst weaker US dollar

Summary

Commodities have enjoyed a great start to 2018. From the low point mid-December they have rallied 6.7%. The performance has been broad-based too – driven not only by the Iran issues inflating the oil price – but a rally in industrial/precious metals and agriculture. Broad global economic growth has supported commodity prices, although we are wary of some who are interpreting this as being a positive sign broadly for commodities this year. Commodities as an asset class are a very heterogeneous group and we expect varied performance from each segment this year in particular.

Although we expect the Fed to continue to tighten policy, we think the downside risks to gold prices are limited because real interest rates will remain depressed as inflation gains pace in the US. However, a shock event, such as an equity market correction, could force gold prices higher. On balance we see little change in gold prices in the coming year.We expect the best performer for 2018 to be industrial metals. They are likely to benefit the most from improving emerging market growth, at the same time we expect supply to remain in deficit in 2018 as the current lack of investment in mining infrastructure continues to bite.

Historically we have found that metal markets begin to move towards a balance two years after miner profit margins hit rock-bottom. Miner margins fell to a low of 2% at the beginning of 2016 and since have recovered to just over 7%. So if we see a repeat of historical patterns, we should see supply begin to improve in late 2018, but it could take years to move back into balance.

Global oversupply projected to continue

Global oversupply projected to continue for 2017/2018. The USDA January World Agricultural Supply and Demand (WASDE) report updates show most of the commodities in a surplus. Performance across the sector have been mixed over the past month. Cotton continues to benefit from strong Chinese demand while the prospects for the sugar market will likely keep prices subdued for longer.Weaker US Dollar provides additional support to the improving fundamentals for industrial metals. The IMF has upgraded its growth forecast for China in 2018 and 2019.

With the global recovery continuing apace, the weaker US Dollar will remain supportive until the US Federal Reserve is forced to adjust monetary policy more aggressively than the market expects. Energy rally looking stretched. The energy complex rallied by 9.1% last month. Natural gas spiked as cold weather hit the US and signs of OPEC’s strategy bearing fruit pushed oil prices higher. However, demand for natural gas is likely to wane in line with seasonal trends and the decline in oil inventories is corollary of rising gasoline inventory.Further upside for precious metals amidst weaker US dollar. US dollar weakness driven by the US government shutdown and rumours that China could curb Treasury purchases are boosting gold’s safe haven appeal. Meanwhile platinum’s relative price attractiveness coupled with rising new car registrations in Europe (dominated by diesel engines) continue to support long term demand for platinum.

For more information contact:

Catarina Donat Marques
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 20 7448 4386
E catarina.donatmarques@etfsecurities.com

Important Information

The analyses in the above tables are purely for information purposes. They do not reflect the performance of any ETF Securities’ products . The futures and roll returns are not necessarily investable.

General

This communication has been provided by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (“ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (the “FCA”).

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Valour lanserar Internet Computer (ICP) och Toncoin (TON) ETP i Norden

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Valour lanserar tre banbrytande börshandlade produkter (“ETPs”) inklusive Valour Internet Computer (ICP) ETP, Valour Toncoin (TON) ETP och Valour Chainlink (LINK) ETP, som markerar betydande milstolpar i det nordiska investeringslandskapet.

Valour lanserar tre banbrytande börshandlade produkter (“ETPs”) inklusive Valour Internet Computer (ICP) ETP, Valour Toncoin (TON) ETP och Valour Chainlink (LINK) ETP, som markerar betydande milstolpar i det nordiska investeringslandskapet.

  • Nordens första i sitt slag: Valour Internet Computer (ICP) ETP och Valour Toncoin (TON) ETP är de första erbjudandena i sitt slag i Norden, som ger investerare oöverträffad tillgång till innovativa ekosystem.
  • Förenklad tillgång till banbrytande tillgångar: Handel med alla tre ETPer påbörjades den 10 maj 2024, med en förvaltningsavgift på 1,9 %. Dessa ETPer möjliggör sömlös tillgång till banbrytande digitala tillgångar, och erbjuder investerare förenklade möjligheter att engagera sig i den transformativa potentialen hos ICP, TON och LINK.
  • Toncoin (TON) Analystäckning: DeFi Technologies dotterbolag, Reflexivity Research, ett ledande forskningsföretag som specialiserat sig på att skapa högkvalitativa, djupgående forskningsrapporter för bitcoin- och kryptovalutaindustrin för att ge investerare värdefulla insikter, har initierat analystäckning om TON.

Valour som ger förenklad tillgång till digitala tillgångar, har lanserat tre ETPer. Bland dessa erbjudanden finns Valour Internet Computer (ICP) ETP och Valour Toncoin (TON) ETP, den första i sitt slag i Norden. Dessa åtföljs av Valour Chainlink (LINK) ETP, som ger förenklad tillgång till avancerade digitala tillgångar.

Handeln med alla tre ETPerna inleddes den 10 maj 2024, med en förvaltningsavgift på 1,9 %.

Valour Internet Computer (ICP) ETP

Valour Internet Computer (ICP) SEK ETP (ISIN: CH1213604510) erbjuder investerare oöverträffad tillgång till framtiden för webbutveckling genom att spåra priset på ICP, den infödda token som driver Internetdatorns ekosystem. Med sitt unika fokus på enkelhet och säkerhet kan investerare sömlöst engagera sig med ICP genom sina traditionella bank- eller mäklarkonton. ICP har ett börsvärde på 5,5 miljarder dollar och rankas tjugofjärde bland alla kryptovalutor globalt.

Internetdatorprojektet banar väg för en ny era av webbutveckling genom att skapa en decentraliserad och skalbar internetinfrastruktur. Genom att göra det möjligt för smarta kontrakt att köras direkt på sitt nätverk, eliminerar Internetdatorn behovet av traditionella serverbaserade arkitekturer, vilket inleder ett paradigmskifte inom webbutveckling. Detta innovativa tillvägagångssätt säkerställer större säkerhet, effektivitet och tillgänglighet för både utvecklare och användare.

Valour Toncoin (TON) ETP

Valour Toncoin (TON) SEK ETP (ISIN: CH1161139600) gör det möjligt för investerare att få tillgång till Toncoin, TONs infödda token, sömlöst och säkert via deras traditionella bank- eller mäklarkonto. Toncoin, med sitt fokus på snabba transaktionshastigheter och låga avgifter, ger en effektiv lösning för både inhemska och internationella betalningar, vilket gör det till ett attraktivt alternativ för olika finansiella tillämpningar. TON har ett börsvärde på $23,25 miljarder och rankas som nionde bland alla kryptovalutor globalt.

Toncoin, den infödda symbolen för TON, erbjuder ett robust och effektivt sätt att utbyta värde, som syftar till att effektivisera betalningsprocesser över olika finansiella landskap. Med sin betoning på snabba transaktionshastigheter och minimala transaktionsavgifter står Toncoin som en lovande lösning för både individer och företag som söker sömlösa betalningsupplevelser.

Företaget är också glada att meddela att dess dotterbolag, Reflexivity Research, ett ledande forskningsföretag som specialiserat sig på att skapa högkvalitativa, djupgående forskningsrapporter för bitcoin- och kryptovalutaindustrin för att ge investerare värdefulla insikter, har initierat forskningstäckning om TON. Rapporten finns här.

Valour Chainlink (LINK) ETP

Valour Chainlink (LINK) SEK (ISIN: CH1161139592) ETP kommer att göra det möjligt för investerare att få exponering mot LINK, enkelt och säkert, via sin bank eller mäklare. LINK har ett börsvärde på 13,63 miljarder dollar och rankas som artonde bland alla kryptovalutor globalt.

Chainlink, känt som ett decentraliserat orakelnätverk, spelar en avgörande roll för att möjliggöra smarta kontrakt på blockchain-plattformar för att säkert interagera med verklig data. Genom att fungera som en brygga mellan blockchain-baserade smarta kontrakt och externa datakällor, underlättar Chainlink genomförandet av förtroendefria och manipuleringssäkra avtal. Dess decentraliserade karaktär säkerställer tillförlitligheten och integriteten hos data, vilket förbättrar effektiviteten och säkerheten för blockchain-transaktioner.

”Valour förblir orubbligt i vårt åtagande att erbjuda investerare ett brett utbud av investeringsmöjligheter för digitala tillgångar”, säger Olivier Roussy Newton, VD för DeFi Technologies. ”Inkluderingen av dessa banbrytande ETPer i vår produktlinje understryker vårt engagemang för att leverera innovativa lösningar som uppfyller de växande behoven hos investerare i det digitala tillgångsområdet Vi är glada över att få täckning från vårt nyligen förvärvade dotterbolag, Reflexivity Research, för att sammanfalla med produktlanseringarna, vilket ger investerare värdefulla insikter och förbättrar deras förståelse för marknadslandskapet.

”Våra unika ETP-erbjudanden i Norden befäster vår ledande position som emittenten med det bredaste utbudet av produkter”, säger Johanna Belitz, Valours försäljningschef, Norden. ”När efterfrågan på altcoins ökar, förväntar vi oss ivrigt mottagandet av våra tre nya erbjudanden i regionen.”

Valour fortsätter att leda ansvaret för att driva innovation inom det digitala tillgångsområdet och utöka sitt produktutbud för att tillgodose de växande behoven hos investerare i Norden. Utöver Valour Toncoin (TON), Internet Computer (ICP) och Chainlink (LINK) ETPerna planerar Valour att introducera ett brett utbud av digitala tillgångsinvesteringsprodukter under de kommande månaderna, vilket ytterligare förbättrar tillgängligheten och bekvämligheten för traditionella investerare.

Handla Valours produkter

Valours produkter är europeiska börshandlade produkter som handlas på bland annat Nordic Growth Market.

Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i dessa ETPer genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel DEGIRONordnet, Aktieinvest och Avanza

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INSU ETF ger exponering mot amerikanska försäkringsbolag

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Invesco Dow Jones US Insurance UCITS ETF Acc (INSU ETF), med ISIN-nummer IE0007UJ6IE0, försöker spåra Dow Jones U.S. Select Insurance-index. Dow Jones U.S. Select Insurance-index följer den amerikanska försäkringssektorn.

Invesco Dow Jones US Insurance UCITS ETF Acc (INSU ETF), med ISIN-nummer IE0007UJ6IE0, försöker spåra Dow Jones U.S. Select Insurance-index. Dow Jones U.S. Select Insurance-index följer den amerikanska försäkringssektorn.

Denna börshandlade fonds TER (total cost ratio) uppgår till 0,35 % p.a. Invesco Dow Jones US Insurance UCITS ETF Acc är den enda ETF som följer Dow Jones U.S. Select Insurance-index. ETFen replikerar det underliggande indexets prestanda genom full replikering (köper alla indexbeståndsdelar). Utdelningarna i ETFen ackumuleras och återinvesteras i den börshandlade fonden.

Denna ETF lanserades den 10 juli 2023 och har sin hemvist i Irland.

Produktbeskrivning

Invesco Dow Jones US Insurance UCITS ETF Acc syftar till att uppnå den totala nettoavkastningen för Dow Jones U.S. Select Insurance Index (”Referensindexet”), minus påverkan av avgifter.

Referensindex är ett börsvärdevägt index som representerar resultatet för stora, medelstora och små försäkringsbolag på den amerikanska marknaden. Referensindexet är konstruerat från Dow Jones U.S. Broad Stock Market Index (”Moderindex”) genom att använda indexleverantörens kriterier för att inkludera värdepapper som klassificeras som Full Line Insurance, Property & Casualty Insurance och Livförsäkringsbolag enligt S&P Dow Jones industriklassificeringssystem. Värdepapper måste också ha ett floatjusterat börsvärde på minst 500 miljoner USD för att komma in i referensindexet och minst 250 miljoner USD för att vara kvar i referensindexet.

Fonden strävar efter att uppnå sitt mål genom att köpa och hålla, så långt det är möjligt och praktiskt, alla värdepapper i referensindex i sina respektive vikter. Fonden kommer att sträva efter att balansera om sina innehav i linje med förändringar i referensindexet, som ombalanseras på kvartalsbasis.

Denna ETF hanteras passivt.

Handla INSU ETF

Invesco Dow Jones US Insurance UCITS ETF Acc (INSU ETF) är en börshandlad fond (ETF) som handlas på London Stock Exchange.

London Stock Exchange är en marknad som få svenska banker och nätmäklare erbjuder access till, men DEGIRO gör det.

Börsnoteringar

BörsValutaKortnamn
London Stock ExchangeGBXINSX
London Stock ExchangeUSDINSU

Största innehav

NamnISINVikt %
CHUBB LTD CHF24.15CH004432874511.56%
PROGRESSIVE CORP USD1US743315103910.28%
ARTHUR J GALLAGHER & CO USD1US36357610976.65%
AMERICAN INTERNATIONAL GROUP USD2.5US02687478496.06%
TRAVELERS COS INC/THE NPVUS89417E10915.36%
METLIFE INC USD0.01US59156R10864.93%
PRUDENTIAL FINANCIAL INC USD0.01US74432010224.75%
AFLAC INC USD0.1US00105510284.75%
ALLSTATE CORP USD0.01US02000210144.16%
ARCH CAPITAL GROUP LTD USD0.01BMG0450A10534.14%

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Crypto Market Compass | 13. May 2024

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Crypto Market Compass | 13. May 2024 Bitcoin continues to consolidate above 60k USD as the market is gradually entering dull seasonality from June onwards

• Bitcoin continues to consolidate above 60k USD as the market is gradually entering dull seasonality from June onwards

• Our in-house “Cryptoasset Sentiment Indicator” continues to hover around neutral levels in sentiment

• Unprofitable BTC miners are coming under pressure following the Halving judging by the recent decline in network hash rate

Chart of the Week

Performance

Last week, cryptoassets underperformed traditional financial assets like equities or Gold as Bitcoin continued to consolidate above 60k USD.

It appears as if the market is currently lacking new positive catalysts after the US and Hong Kong spot ETF approvals and the Bitcoin Halving. Moreover, we are gradually entering dull seasonality from June onwards as the summer months have historically shown below-average returns for Bitcoin in the past.

Moreover, increasing US recession risks towards the summer as outlined in our latest monthly report could provide a temporary headwind for Bitcoin and cryptoassets as our own analyses still imply that Bitcoin’s performance continues to be dominated by global growth expectations.

Our base case is that the market continues to consolidate until macro risks have cleared/materialized and the positive performance effects from the Halving start to kick in around August 2024 as outlined in our special report about the Halving.

In the meantime, unprofitable BTC miners could come under pressure and there seems to be first evidence of that happening judging by the recent decline in network hash rate (Chart-of-the-Week). More specifically, the 7-day moving average of
Bitcoin’s hash rate has already declined by around -8% since the Halving took place on the 20 th of April.

In addition, last week also saw the 4th negative difficulty adjustment this year as it took BTC miners on average longer than 10 minutes to find the correct hash for a block. This is additional evidence that the network hash rate has been reduced.

In fact, the average BTC miner’s revenue has declined significantly as both the block subsidy and transaction fees have declined significantly since the Halving. Daily aggregate miner revenues have dropped to around ~28 mn USD, down from ~72 mn USD at the time of the Halving. That being said, there is no sign of significant distribution of bitcoins by BTC miners yet based on aggregate BTC miner balances.

There have been no significant transfers from miner wallets to exchange wallets either more recently.

Increasing selling pressure by BTC miners could be a headwind in the short term.

Furthermore, selling pressure could also materialize via fund outflows from crypto ETPs as traditional investors could distribute some of their crypto holdings for liquidity reasons in case of increasing US recession risks mentioned above.

This is something that we will continue to monitor over the coming weeks.

On a positive note, overall exchange inflows that are usually a good barometer for overall selling pressure have abated more recently and neither short- nor long-term holders are currently distributing coins in a significant way. Besides, global crypto ETPs still saw net inflows overall over the past week despite ongoing GBTC outflows in the US.

In general, among the top 10 crypto assets, Toncoin, BNB, and Solana were the relative outperformers.

However, overall altcoin outperformance vis-à-vis Bitcoin remained relatively low, with only around 40% of our tracked altcoins managing to outperform Bitcoin on a weekly basis.

Sentiment

Our in-house “Cryptoasset Sentiment Index” continues to hover around neutral levels in sentiment. The more recent correction has only led to a slight decrease in sentiment so far.

At the moment, 5 out of 15 indicators are above their short-term trend.

Last week, there were significant reversals to the downside in global crypto ETP fund flows and the Crypto Fear & Greed Index.

That being said, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index still signals ”Greed” again as of this morning.

Performance dispersion among cryptoassets has continued to remain low.

Altcoin outperformance vis-à-vis Bitcoin was still subdued, with around 40% of our tracked altcoins that have outperformed Bitcoin on a weekly basis. At the same time, Ethereum continued to underperform Bitcoin last week.

In general, increasing (decreasing) altcoin outperformance tends to be a sign of increasing (decreasing) risk appetite within cryptoasset markets.

Meanwhile, sentiment in traditional financial markets remains relatively elevated, judging by our own measure of Cross Asset Risk Appetite (CARA).

Fund Flows

Last week, we saw a slight reversal in global crypto ETPs with around +25.7 mn USD in net inflows, up from around -372.4 mn USD the week prior based on Bloomberg data.

Global Bitcoin ETPs saw net inflows of +92.5 mn USD of which +117.0 mn (net) were related to US spot Bitcoin ETFs alone. Hong Kong spot Bitcoin ETFs already experienced net outflows of around -40.9 mn USD last week according to data provided by Bloomberg.

The ETC Group Physical Bitcoin ETP (BTCE) also saw net outflows equivalent to -33.4 mn USD while the ETC Group Core Bitcoin ETP (BTC1) saw minor net inflows of +0.7 mn USD last week.

The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) continued to experience net outflows of approximately -171.1 mn USD last week while other major US spot Bitcoin ETFs were able to attract new capital, e.g. iShares’ IBIT with net inflows of around +48.2 mn USD.

In contrast to Bitcoin ETPs, Global Ethereum ETPs saw a decline in ETP flows last week, with net outflows of around -63.5 mn USD. This was mostly due to significant outflows from Hong Kong spot Ethereum ETFs that saw -46.5 mn USD in net outflows last week, according to data provided by Bloomberg.

In general, there seems to be an emerging pattern in crypto ETP fund flows that while global Bitcoin ETP flows continue to be dominated by US spot Bitcoin ETF flows, global Ethereum ETP fund flows are increasingly dominated by Hong Kong spot Ethereum ETF flows.

Meanwhile, the ETC Group Physical Ethereum ETP (ZETH) saw neither in- nor outflows (+/- 0 mn USD). The ETC Group Ethereum Staking ETP (ET32) experienced some net outflows (-1.5 mn USD) last week.

Besides, Altcoin ETPs ex Ethereum experienced only minor net inflows of around +5.7 mn USD last week.

Besides, Thematic & basket crypto ETPs experienced some net outflows of -9.0 mn USD, based on our calculations. The ETC Group MSCI Digital Assets Select 20 ETP (DA20) did experience neither in- nor outflows last week (+/- 0 mn USD).

Besides, the beta of global crypto hedge funds to Bitcoin over the last 20 trading days continued to increase to around 1.06. This implies that global crypto hedge funds have significantly increased their market exposure and have currently a slightly more than neutral exposure to Bitcoin.

On-Chain Data

As the market has rebounded from oversold levels at the beginning of May, on-chain data for Bitcoin remain somewhat mixed.

As mentioned above, unprofitable BTC miners could come under pressure and there seems to be first evidence of that happening judging by the recent decline in network hash rate (Chart-of-the-Week).

More specifically, the 7-day moving average of Bitcoin’s hash rate has already declined by around -8% since the Halving took place on the 20th of April.

In this context, the decline in active addresses to year-to-date lows appears to be somewhat concerning. On a positive note, overall network activity based on a variety of metrics still implies that Bitcoin’s network activity is still near all-time highs as the transaction count remains relatively high. This is not related to high inscription demand but related to genuine transaction demand.

Coming to Bitcoin’s hash rate, last week also saw the 4th negative difficulty adjustment this year as it took BTC miners on average longer than 10 minutes to find the correct hash for a block. This is additional evidence that the network hash rate has been reduced.

In fact, the average BTC miner’s revenue has declined significantly as both the block subsidy and transaction fees have declined significantly since the Halving. Daily aggregate miner revenues have dropped to around ~28 mn USD, down from ~72 mn USD at the time of the Halving.

That being said, there is no sign of significant distribution of bitcoins by BTC miners yet based on aggregate BTC miner balances. There have been no significant transfers from miner wallets to exchange wallets either more recently.

Increasing selling pressure by BTC miners could be a headwind in the short term.
Meanwhile, the increase in accumulation activity observed last week has started to decelerate a bit but is still comparatively high. Furthermore, whales continue to take coins off exchange on a net basis.

However, intraday net buying minus selling volumes on spot Bitcoin exchanges remained negative over the past week largely due to the deceleration in US spot Bitcoin ETF net inflows since March.

A renewed improvement in net buying volumes on spot exchanges is highly dependent on a resumption of higher flows into US and global Bitcoin ETP flows.

Futures, Options & Perpetuals

Last week, both BTC futures and perpetual open interest saw a slight increase in BTC-terms which seems to be related to a net increase in short open interest. In other words, BTC futures traders have started building up more downside exposure over the past week.

Meanwhile, both BTC short and long futures liquidations remained relatively low last week. The Bitcoin futures basis continued to move sideways last week. At the time of writing, the Bitcoin futures annualized basis rate stands at around 8.7% p.a.
Perpetual funding rates also remained slightly positive throughout the week.

Bitcoin options’ open interest decreased slightly last week as BTC option traders seem to have reduced their exposure of puts relative to calls. Relative put-call volume ratios remained well behaved last week.

However, the 25-delta BTC 1-month option skew increased slightly implying an increased demand for puts relative to calls.

BTC option implied volatilities have decreased slightly compared to the prior week. Implied volatilities of 1-month ATM Bitcoin options are currently at around 51.9% p.a., down from 53.1% p.a. the week prior.

Bottom Line

• Bitcoin continues to consolidate above 60k USD as the market is gradually entering dull seasonality from June onwards

• Our in-house “Cryptoasset Sentiment Indicator” continues to hover around neutral levels in sentiment

• Unprofitable BTC miners are coming under pressure following the Halving judging by the recent decline in network hash rate

To read our Crypto Market Compass in full, please click the button below:

This is not investment advice. Capital at risk. Read the full disclaimer

© ETC Group 2019-2024 | All rights reserved

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