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US Debt Stand-Off Keeps Markets on Edge

Publicerad

11 år sedan

den

16 oktober, 2013

US Debt Stand-Off Keeps Markets on Edge. The US fiscal and debt impasse continues to whipsaw markets, with gold falling below US$1,300oz last week on indications a short-term debt ceiling increase might find bipartisan agreement. However, with the estimated 17 October debt ceiling breach looming and no further progress over the weekend, markets are back in risk-off mode, with gold pushing higher again. Political misjudgement and resulting default (or even near default) would not just severely damage the US economy and the longer term faith in the US government’s commitment to repaying its debt, but would also have large negative reverberations across global financial markets and economies. Most investors appear to be betting that the consequences are so huge that even US politicians will eventually act rationally and find agreement. The risk, however, is that irreparable damage has already been done to investors’ long-term faith in the US’s commitment to honouring its debt obligations, further accelerating investors search for alternatives to the US dollar as a reserve asset. With Europe still facing serious structural issues and China not yet ready to step up to the plate, in our view, gold’s role as an alternative hard currency and reserve diversifier with continue to grow.

Physical gold ETPs saw US$79mn of outflows last week as a shortterm fix to the US debt stand-off seemed imminent. The gold price dropped below the US$1,300oz level last week after reports indicated an agreement between Obama and the House Republicans on a temporary increase in the debt ceiling was near. However, over the weekend little progress was made on finding temporary or permanent solution, and markets have again started to increase allocations to perceived safe haven assets such as gold.

ETFS Wheat (WEAT) records the biggest inflows in over five years, totalling US$19.7mn, on falling inventories. The wheat price has risen substantially over the past month, achieving over an 8% gain, as the UN Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) cut its estimate of the stock to disappearance ratio for the major wheat exporters. Given the low level of inventories relative to consumption and exports, any sudden change in weather could produce a sharp reaction in wheat prices. Lack of new data from the USDA following the federal shutdown is also likely to contribute to market uncertainty.

ETFS Physical Platinum (PHPT) receives US$12.7mn of inflows, the largest since May, as the Amplats strike continues into its 2nd week. The strike, that started on September 27, is costing the company about 3,100 ounces of output a day. Around 0.8% of supply has so far been taken off the market by the action. While the impact on total platinum production is so far negligible, investors have already positioned themselves for a potential worsening of the situation that could lead to a repetition of last year events. South African disruptions remain a potential short-term catalyst for platinum price rally.

Long silver ETPs record the fifth consecutive week of inflows, as the metal’s hybrid characteristics attract investors’ interest. Inflows amounted to US$2.7mn last week. While so far his year the silver price has been weighed down by the generally bearish sentiment towards gold, the recovery in China and the US could favour silver in the next months. With over 50% of its demand coming from the industry, silver is well positioned to benefit from a pick-up in the global manufacturing activity. At the same time its elevated correlation with gold provides investors with a hedge against a potential worst case scenario in the US.

Key events to watch this week. The main focus of markets this week will continue to be on progress on US debt/fiscal negotiations. Chinese GDP and industrial production will also be a key focus of markets. Cyclical commodities are likely to benefit from any better-than-expected data. Eurozone industrial production and car registrations will also be released with implication for cyclicals and platinum in particular.

Important Information

General

This communication has been provided by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority.

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Are we about to enter “Hyperbitcoinization”?

Publicerad

10 timmar sedan

den

26 juli, 2024

Redaktionen

• Global crypto asset adoption rates are significantly higher than previously estimated.

• The data generally suggest that both the US and Europe may be at the cusp of mass retail adoption – a situation often referred to as “Hyperbitcoinization” in the context of Bitcoin.

• Chances are that the growth of adoption will surprise to the upside due to the fact that we are most likely at the inflection point from ”Early Adopters” to ”Early Majority”.

Trump recently made a public statement implying that 50 million Americans already held ”crypto”. The most recent surveys among US consumers seem to support this number.

It is no surprise that cryptoassets have become a major topic during the US presidential election as the parties have become increasingly aware that cryptoasset users could play a significant role at the ballot.

Both Trump and Robert Kennedy Jr. are scheduled to deliver a pro-Bitcoin speech at the upcoming Bitcoin conference in Nashville over the weekend.

It seems as if cryptoasset users are not a small minority anymore that can be ignored.

Here are some recent US bitcoin and crypto adoption surveys for comparison (% of total population in brackets):

• Security.org: 93 mn (28%)
• Unchained: 86 mn (26%)
• Statista: 53.6 mn (16%)
• Morning Consult: 44.2 mn (13%)
• Finder: 38.4 mn (11%)

In general, cryptoasset adoption has been on the rise globally.

A recent global survey among institutional investors conducted by Fidelity even implies that 51% of surveyed institutional investors have already invested into cryptoassets such as Bitcoin.

Another recent consumer survey by Statista implies that approximately every 5th person (21%) worldwide has already invested into cryptoassets.

However, it’s important to highlight that among the top 10 regions with the highest adoption rates, 8 regions are developing countries.

So, cryptoasset adoption rates are even significantly higher among developing countries than in developed countries that often suffer from chronically high inflation rates and weak domestic currencies.

That being said, the data generally suggest that both the US and Europe may be at the cusp of mass retail adoption – a situation often referred to as “Hyperbitcoinization” in the context of Bitcoin.

The reason is that technological adoption in general tends to accelerate at the threshold from the so-called “early adopters” to the “early majority” which is around 16% adoption rate based on the model of technological adoption famously put forth by Rogers (1962).

Global adoption rates are already at 21% while adoption rates in the US and Europe are at around 16% and 14%, respectively. So, there is a strong case for an acceleration of adoption rates in these regions and globally over the coming years.

Recent political developments in the US also imply that Bitcoin and cryptoassets are gradually becoming mainstream.

Trump has recently endorsed domestic Bitcoin mining in the US and both Democrats and Republicans have started accepting crypto payments for campaign financing.

The big success of the spot Bitcoin ETFs this year and the fact that additional types of spot crypto ETFs are being launched marks a significant shift in sentiment among US regulators in this regard.

In short, chances are that the growth of adoption will surprise to the upside due to the fact that we are most-likely at the inflection point from ”Early Adopters” to ”Early Majority”.

Bottom Line

• Global crypto asset adoption rates are significantly higher than previously estimated.

• The data generally suggest that both the US and Europe may be at the cusp of mass retail adoption – a situation often referred to as “Hyperbitcoinization” in the context of Bitcoin.

• Chances are that the growth of adoption will surprise to the upside due to the fact that we are most likely at the inflection point from ”Early Adopters” to ”Early Majority”.

To read more about suitable investment solutions by ETC Group, please click the button below:

This is not investment advice. Capital at risk. Read the full disclaimer

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Investera i Optimism med en börshandlad produkt

Publicerad

11 timmar sedan

den

26 juli, 2024

Redaktionen

I denna text tittar vi närmare på olika sätt att investera i Optimism med en börshandlad produkt Precis som för många andra kryptovalutor och tokens finns det flera olika börshandlade produkter som spårar Optimism. Vi har identifierar en sådan produkt.

De olika produkterna skiljer sig en del åt, en del av emittenterna arbetar med så kallad staking, vilket gör att förvaltningsavgiften kan pressas ned. Det är emellertid inte så att alla dessa börshandlade produkter är identiska varför det är viktigt att läsa på.

Investera i Optimism med en börshandlad produkt

Precis som för många andra kryptovalutor och tokens finns det flera olika börshandlade produkter som spårar Optimism.

För ytterligare information om respektive ETP klicka på kortnamnet i tabellen nedan.

Namn	Kortnamn	Valuta	Staking	Utlåning	ISIN	Avgift %
21Shares Optimism ETP	AOPT	USD	Nej	Nej	CH1304867455	2,50%

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JPGH ETF investerar i amerikanska tillväxtaktier

Publicerad

12 timmar sedan

den

26 juli, 2024

Redaktionen

JPMorgan Active US Growth UCITS ETF EUR Hedged (acc) (JPGH ETF) med ISIN IE000UZZ5SU2, är en aktivt förvaltad ETF. Den börshandlade fonden investerar i amerikanska tillväxtaktier och strävar efter att generera en högre långsiktig avkastning än Russell 1000 Growth-index. Aktierna som ingår filtreras enligt ESG-kriterier (miljö, social och bolagsstyrning). Valutasäkrad till euro (EUR).

Den börshandlade fondens TER (total cost ratio) uppgår till 0,49 % p.a. JPMorgan Active US Growth UCITS ETF EUR Hedged (acc) är den enda ETF som följer JPMorgan Active US Growth (EUR Hedged)-index. Denna ETF replikerar det underliggande indexets prestanda genom full replikering (köper alla indexbeståndsdelar). Utdelningarna i ETFen ackumuleras och återinvesteras.

JPMorgan Active US Growth UCITS ETF EUR Hedged (acc) är en mycket liten ETF med tillgångar på 2 miljoner euro under förvaltning. ETF lanserades den 18 januari 2024 och har sin hemvist i Irland.

Möjlighet

Erfaret portföljförvaltningsteam med i genomsnitt 30 års branscherfarenhet

Utnyttja de bästa idéerna från JPMorgans dedikerade tillväxtanalysteam, förutom grundläggande insikter från över 20 amerikanska aktiekarriäranalytiker, alla med i genomsnitt 20+ års branscherfarenhet

Portfölj

Kombinerar två av JPMorgans beprövade aktiva amerikanska aktiestrategier (tillväxt med stora bolag och tillväxtfördelar), som kombineras för att leverera en diversifierad portfölj av amerikanska tillväxtaktier med underskattad tillväxtpotential över sektorer.

Resultat

Aktivt förvaltad investeringsstrategi som strävar efter att leverera en stilren tillväxtaktieportfölj med en viss grad av marknadskapitalflexibilitet

Handla JPGH ETF

JPMorgan Active US Growth UCITS ETF EUR Hedged (acc) (JPGH ETF) är en europeisk börshandlad fond. Denna fond handlas på flera olika börser, till exempel Deutsche Boerse Xetra och Borsa Italiana.

Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETF genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel DEGIRO, Nordnet, Aktieinvest och Avanza.

Börsnoteringar

Börs	Valuta	Kortnamn
Borsa Italiana	EUR	JGEH
SIX Swiss Exchange	EUR	JGEH
XETRA	EUR	JPGH

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