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Upside potential for GBP after UK election

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Upside potential for GBP after UK election British Pound (GBP) will experience a period of consolidation ahead of the UK election in early June, as polls for PM May see-saw.

ETF Securities FX Research: Upside potential for GBP after UK election

Highlights

  • We expect that the British Pound (GBP) will experience a period of consolidation ahead of the UK election in early June, as polls for PM May see-saw.
  • Investor sentiment has rebounded strongly, albeit from record levels of pessimism. We expect that the worst-case scenario surrounding Brexit negotiations has already been priced in for GBP.
  • Fading political risk, higher real rates, and a resilient economy will see GBP post gradual gains in H2 2016, potentially targeting the 1.35 level against the US Dollar.

Consolidation ahead of UK election

We expect that the British Pound will experience a period of consolidation around current levels ahead of the UK election in early June. The latest polling indicates that Prime Minister May’s lead has declined, prompting a modest pullback in the local currency. We expect that although GBP could soften further in coming weeks, as the Conservative party’s lead see-saws, but believe it will stay above key support of 200-dma, which is currently 1.2595.

Any further decline in PM May’s popularity could see a rise in GBP volatility, as the election result becomes more uncertain. Sterling has historically reacted negatively to volatile periods. There is a strong inverse relationship with Sterling exhibiting weakness during periods of heightened volatility.

Currently, global currency volatility is moderating as political uncertainty fades. While a more benign volatility environment will be supportive of gradual gains in GBP, we expect this to be increasingly apparent following the June 8th election.

Investors more optimistic

Investor positioning has begun to rebound from the lowest levels on record in the futures market, indicating that there is growing optimism for the UK’s economic prospects as ‘Brexit’ negotiations begin. Although still in negative territory, GBP net shorts have more than halved since the record pessimistic positions seen at the end of March 2017.

Investors have become more positive on the outlook for GBP because the domestic economic environment has remained resilient.

Financial sector key for GBP

We expect that the worst case scenario has already been priced in regarding the Brexit negotiations and its impact on the economy and the financial services sector in particular. In coming years, a rising rate environment and further clarity surrounding the EU-UK negotiations should be reflected in rising banking sector valuations.

A 2017 House of Commons Library briefing paper indicated that the financial and insurance services sector contributes over 7% of the UK’s Gross Value Added, a measure of the value of goods and services produced in the UK. Additionally and importantly a supportive factor for the local currency, the financial and insurance sector generates a trade surplus of the equivalent of 3% of UK GDP. Nonetheless, the Bank of England expects some softer numbers from the household sector as wage growth has been revised down at the same time that inflation is rising.

Price pressures apparent but fading

Inflation has breached the Bank of England’s target to the upside and is now at the highest rate since July 2013. In April, CPI rose 2.7% from a year ago, while core inflation rose to 2.4% from 1.8%. Imported inflation resulting from the weaker GBP has been one of the main avenues for inflation lifting in 2017, via imported food and fuel. However, the impact of currency weakness is beginning to fade. The Bank of England noted the rise in the GBP since its previous inflation statement in February, which will help moderate the rise in import prices. GBP has risen 4% since but remains 12% below the post EU Referendum levels of 1.48.

With headline inflation expected to peak near current levels, we believe that real rates are forming a bottom. Accordingly, GBP has responded in line with the modest rebound in real yields and we expect the gradual move higher in yields to continue. Not only do we expect the Bank of England to reverse the Brexit-induced rate cut of last year, but inflationary pressures are expected to moderate as the impact of the exchange rate plunge on prices begins to fade.

If the recent upward pressure in core CPI begins to gain momentum, the central bank will need to move more quickly to dampen inflationary expectations. Currently only one MPC committee member is voting for a rate hike, but that could quickly change post-election.

The bottom line…

After the election, as FX volatility continues to moderate, GBP could again test the 1.30 level and potentially break to the upside as the domestic economy remains resilient, targeting 1.35.

Important Information

General

This communication has been issued and approved for the purpose of section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (“ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (the “FCA”).

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Concerned about rising government debt? Bitcoin’s got you covered

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Amid soaring US debt and Gold’s steady gains, Bitcoin has continued to deliver strong returns over the past 15 years. Its scarcity and decentralization make it a hedge that investors can’t ignore, providing new ways to pursue growth, security, and opportunity in an evolving financial landscape.

Amid soaring US debt and Gold’s steady gains, Bitcoin has continued to deliver strong returns over the past 15 years. Its scarcity and decentralization make it a hedge that investors can’t ignore, providing new ways to pursue growth, security, and opportunity in an evolving financial landscape.

Investors can’t ignore the corporate world’s big bet on Ethereum

Ethereum is stealing the spotlight, as public companies have accumulated over 4.4 million ETH, worth nearly $19 billion, in the past few months. This treasury boom is outpacing Bitcoin’s early adoption and redefining how Wall Street approaches digital assets.

The rise of Hyperliquid: DeFi’s record-breaking powerhouse

Hyperliquid is making waves in DeFi perpetuals by setting new records, leading trading volumes, and propelling its token to all-time highs. Backed by market volatility, high-performance infrastructure, and concentrated liquidity, the platform continues to draw investors and assert its market dominance.

Research Newsletter

Each week the 21Shares Research team will publish our data-driven insights into the crypto asset world through this newsletter. Please direct any comments, questions, and words of feedback to research@21shares.com

Disclaimer

The information provided does not constitute a prospectus or other offering material and does not contain or constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy securities in any jurisdiction. Some of the information published herein may contain forward-looking statements. Readers are cautioned that any such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks and uncertainties and that actual results may differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements as a result of various factors. The information contained herein may not be considered as economic, legal, tax or other advice and users are cautioned to base investment decisions or other decisions solely on the content hereof.

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N100 ETF följer det amerikanska Nasdaq 100 indexet

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iShares NASDAQ 100 Swap UCITS ETF USD (Acc) (N100 ETF) med ISIN IE0001ZFMLN7, försöker följa Nasdaq 100®-indexet. Nasdaq 100®-indexet spårar ett urval av 100 aktier valda bland icke-finansiella aktier noterade på NASDAQ-börsen.

iShares NASDAQ 100 Swap UCITS ETF USD (Acc) (N100 ETF) med ISIN IE0001ZFMLN7, försöker följa Nasdaq 100®-indexet. Nasdaq 100®-indexet spårar ett urval av 100 aktier valda bland icke-finansiella aktier noterade på NASDAQ-börsen.

Den börshandlade fondens TER (total cost ratio) uppgår till 0,20 % p.a. ETFen replikerar det underliggande indexets prestanda syntetiskt med en swap. Utdelningarna i ETFen ackumuleras och återinvesteras.

iShares NASDAQ 100 Swap UCITS ETF USD (Acc) är en mycket liten ETF med 4 miljoner euro under förvaltning. Denna ETF lanserades den 3 oktober 2024 och har sin hemvist i Irland.

Varför N100?

Exponering mot 100 av de största amerikanska och internationella icke-finansiella aktierna noterade på NASDAQ-börsen.

Exponering för företag inom stora industrigrupper inklusive hårdvara och mjukvara, telekommunikation, detaljhandel/grossisthandel och bioteknik.

Använd i din portfölj för att söka tillväxt på medellång till lång sikt även om fonden också kan vara lämplig för kortsiktig exponering mot index.

Investeringsmål

Fonden strävar efter att uppnå avkastning på din investering, genom en kombination av kapitaltillväxt och inkomst på fondens tillgångar, vilket återspeglar den totala nettoavkastningen för NASDAQ 100-indexet (”Indexet”).

Handla N100 ETF

iShares NASDAQ 100 Swap UCITS ETF USD (Acc) (N100 ETF) är en börshandlad fond (ETF) som handlas på London Stock Exchange.

London Stock Exchange är en marknad som få svenska banker och nätmäklare erbjuder access till, men DEGIRO gör det.

Börsnoteringar

BörsValutaKortnamn
Euronext AmsterdamUSDNASQ
London Stock ExchangeGBPN100

Största innehav

KortnamnNamnSektorVikt (%)ISINValuta
XNSXNASDAQ 100 GROSS INDEX IN USDOther99.34USD
FTNTFORTINET INCInformationsteknologi4.92US34959E1091USD
AMZNAMAZON COM INCSällanköpsvaror3.95US0231351067USD
EPAMEPAM SYSTEMS INCInformationsteknologi3.81US29414B1044USD
TSLATESLA INCSällanköpsvaror3.79US88160R1014USD
GDDYGODADDY INC CLASS AInformationsteknologi3.49US3802371076USD
PYPLPAYPAL HOLDINGS INCFinans3.32US70450Y1038USD
ADSKAUTODESK INCInformationsteknologi3.31US0527691069USD
NFLXNETFLIX INCKommunikation3.30US64110L1061USD
CDNSCADENCE DESIGN SYSTEMS INCInformationsteknologi3.28US1273871087USD

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IncomeShares Monthly Investor Update – August 2025

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IncomeShares passed three milestones in August. Assets under management climbed to almost $66 million, cumulative fund flows topped $72 million, and turnover across London and Xetra listings reached over $27 million. Palantir paid the highest annualised distribution yield at 57.11%. The sections below break the numbers down in more detail.

IncomeShares passed three milestones in August. Assets under management climbed to almost $66 million, cumulative fund flows topped $72 million, and turnover across London and Xetra listings reached over $27 million. Palantir paid the highest annualised distribution yield at 57.11%. The sections below break the numbers down in more detail.

Cumulative fund flows

Fund flows track how much money investors put into or take out of IncomeShares ETPs (exchange-traded products). Positive flows mean more money coming in than going out – a sign of demand for the products.

Flows have risen every month this year. In January, they stood at $13.7 million. By the end of August, they reached $72.4 million. That’s over $8 million of new money added in August alone – the biggest increase since May.

Trading turnover

Turnover is the total dollar value of IncomeShares ETPs bought and sold on the exchanges. Higher turnover means more activity and liquidity for investors.

Turnover reached $27.3 million in August – the highest on record and more than double January’s $13.0 million. London listings (USD and GBP combined) made up $14.2 million, with Xetra listings close behind at $13.1 million. Both exchanges have seen steady increases through 2025, showing rising interest in income options strategies across the board.

Note: Figures use IDC FX rates as of the August month-end to convert GBP and EUR into USD. We apply the same August rates to all prior months to compare turnover on a like-for-like basis.

Assets under management (AUM)

AUM is the total value of assets held across all IncomeShares ETPs. It grows when new investors buy in, or when the underlying assets rise in value.

AUM grew from $13.8 million in January to $65.8 million at the end of August. It was also $8 million more than in July. Steady inflows and consistent income distributions are helping the product range build scale.

Distribution yields

Distribution yields represent the annualised income paid to investors as a percentage of the current NAV (net asset value), based on the latest month’s yield. IncomeShares ETPs aim to generate this income from selling options. Yields change each month depending on strategy performance and market volatility.

Annualised August yields (ranked highest to lowest):

• Palantir Options ETP (PLTY): 57.11%

• Nasdaq 100 Options ETP (QQQY): 46.44%

• Coinbase Options ETP (COIY): 43.60%

• AMD Options ETP (AMDY): 41.43%

• Tesla Options ETP (TSLI): 40.97%

• Broadcom Options ETP (AVGY): 40.96%

• MicroStrategy Options ETP (MSTY): 37.61%

• Alibaba Options ETP (BABY): 35.90%

• S&P 500 Options ETP (SPYY): 32.95%

NVIDIA Options ETP (NVDI): 28.42%

Alphabet Options ETP (GOOI): 18.15%

Magnificent 7 Options ETP (MAGO): 16.87%

Apple Options ETP (AAPPY): 15.55%

20+ Year Treasury Options ETP (TLTY): 12.38%

Amazon Options ETP (AMZI): 12.00%

Silver+ Yield Options ETP (SLVY): 11.56%

Meta Options ETP (METY): 11.32%

Gold+ Yield Options ETP (GLDI): 6.74%

Microsoft Options ETP (MSFY): 6.54%

Our Palantir ETP topped the list with an annualised yield of 57.11% for August, up from 30.57% in July. The stock was volatile in August, trading between $142 and $190. That wider range increased option premiums, which boosted the ETP’s yield. The ETP sells put options on Palantir stock and holds shares – the strategy used for all our single stock ETPs and the Magnificent 7 product.

The Nasdaq 100 ETP paid an annualised yield of 46.44% in August, up slightly from 44.52% in July. At the other end, Gold+ and Microsoft stayed below 7%, reflecting relatively calmer conditions in their underlying assets.

The table below shows the annalised distribution yields for all IncomeShares ETPs so far this year. Note that the bottom eight ETPs launched in late June, so they only have yields for July and August.

Key takeaways

• Fund flows climbed to $72.4 million, with August adding more than $8 million.

• Turnover hit a record $27.3 million, split almost evenly between London and Xetra.

• Palantir topped the yield table at 57%, with Nasdaq 100 and Coinbase also paying above 40%.

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