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Unicorn or Trojan Horse?
ETFS Multi-Asset Weekly Unicorn or Trojan Horse?
- Unicorn or Trojan Horse?
- Cold weather gas rally.
- Unicorn or Trojan Horse?
USD to remain buoyant as investors listen to central banks.
Late-week political wrangling over Greece’s request for an extension to its bail-out upset an otherwise strong week for cyclical assets.
While an eleventh-hour deal was struck, the lack of details could continue to temper market sentiment this week. Federal Reserve minutes revealed little urgency in raising interest rates despite a number of Fed officials indicating that June could be a potential date for increases. Meanwhile the Bank of Japan failed to increase quantitative easing, pointing to a better economic outlook, despite the poor GDP reading earlier in the week.
Commodities
Cold weather gas rally. US natural gas rose 5% last week as a cold weather snap drove up heating demand. According to Bentek Energy (an energy market analytics company), demand in the northeastern United States on Monday hit the highest level in its 10-year history of data, surpassing the previous high set in the polar vortex of January 2014. However, meteorological agencies expect the bitter cold in the east to pass and normal February weather to resume this week, which is likely to ease gas prices. We saw some flattening in the Brent futures curve this week, as the price of the front month contract moved higher while longer dated contracts fell. WTI fell across the whole curve, giving back some of last week’s gains. Coffee plummeted 8.9% as recent rain in Brazil lifted hopes of a better coffee crop.
Equities
Unicorn or Trojan Horse? The S&P500 and Russell 2000 hit fresh highs, gaining 0.4% and 1% respectively last week. The absence of inflationary pressures has kept equity markets in a jovial mood although political wrangling over Greece’s debt extension took the edge off performance in European bourses toward the end of the week. Indeed, even though EURO STOXX 50® Volatility fell 4.7% in the week up to Thursday, by Friday volatility was back to previous week levels. Nevertheless the FTSE MIB, FTSE 100 and DAX ended the week to Thursday 3.6%, 1.3% and 0.6% higher. The MSCI China A-Share Index rose 2.5% before the domestic Chinese equity markets closed for New Year festivities. Sentiment toward Chinese equities have continued to improve as further central bank easing looks likely..
Currencies
USD to remain buoyant as investors listen to central banks. The gradual improvement of economic activity in an environment devoid of inflationary pressure will keep currency volatility elevated as aggressive stimulus from central banks remains in place. While we initially thought the USD could suffer a near-term correction, it is unlikely to be this week with Fed Chair Yellen, ECB President Draghi amongst the key speakers this week. The takeaway message for investors will be that policy divergences between the US and the rest of the developed world are likely keep the USD supported as other central banks remain firmly in stimulus mode. While it appears that investors are discounting a mid-year rate hike by the Fed, Chair Yellen’s testimony should help bring market expectations back in line with the central banks tightening timing cycle. A stronger dollar is also likely to be reinforced if the CPI readings for the Eurozone, Japan and Canada disappoint, come in under expectations, a likely possibility with oil prices remaining depressed.
Important Information
This communication has been issued and approved for the purpose of section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (”FCA”).
Stablecoins have quickly become a leading use case for blockchains, now surpassing Visa and Mastercard in transaction volume, as highlighted during Token2049, the world’s largest crypto conference held last week in Dubai.
Notably, the event also revealed that the Trump family’s crypto venture plans to launch a new stablecoin, USD1. With regulation advancing, legislation being considered in the US Congress, and high-profile entrants emerging, stablecoins are increasingly positioned as core infrastructure in the digital asset ecosystem.
Market Highlights
Google Wallet to use blockchain technology
Google Wallet has integrated zero-knowledge proofs (zk-proofs), a privacy-enhancing technology originally developed in crypto industry.
This integration reflects a broader trend of mainstream tech adopting blockchain-native innovations, potentially paving the way for greater consumer privacy and crypto interoperability in digital payments.
FCA gathers feedback on crypto rules
The UK’s Financial Conduct Authority is seeking industry input on its proposed crypto regulations, slated for implementation in 2026.
This engagement underscores the UK’s intent to develop a balanced framework that fosters innovation while addressing consumer protection and market integrity in the growing digital asset space.
Goldman Sachs 24/7 tokenized trading in US
Goldman Sachs is advancing plans to enable a 24/7 trading of tokenized US Treasuries and money market fund shares.
The move follows recent regulatory shifts, including the national banks being allowed to engage in crypto activities without prior approval and the withdrawal of previous guidance that discouraged crypto activities, signaling a more accommodating regulatory environment.
Market Metrics
This week, most NCITM constituents ended in negative territory, with the exception of BTC and ETH, both of which rose by 1.2%. Notably, ETH outperformed the broader altcoin market, helping lift the NCITM index to a modest 0.5% gain. The overall negative performance reflects ongoing crypto-related headwinds, including uncertainty surrounding the stablecoin bill and Arizona’s rejection of a proposal to hold Bitcoin reserves — both of which signal resistance to integrating crypto into the traditional financial system.
This week, the NCITM rose 0.5%, underperforming traditional assets like the Nasdaq 100 (+3.4%) and the S&P 500 (+2.9%), both of which delivered strong gains. Gold fell (-1.9%) but remains the top-performing asset year-to-date. Although crypto lagged behind traditional markets this week, the recent US GDP contraction and flat inflation data could lead to a more dovish stance from the Fed — a shift that may benefit crypto more than other risk assets and potentially restore its position, once again, as the year’s best-performing asset class.
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