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Unicorn or Trojan Horse?
ETFS Multi-Asset Weekly Unicorn or Trojan Horse?
- Unicorn or Trojan Horse?
- Cold weather gas rally.
- Unicorn or Trojan Horse?
USD to remain buoyant as investors listen to central banks.
Late-week political wrangling over Greece’s request for an extension to its bail-out upset an otherwise strong week for cyclical assets.
While an eleventh-hour deal was struck, the lack of details could continue to temper market sentiment this week. Federal Reserve minutes revealed little urgency in raising interest rates despite a number of Fed officials indicating that June could be a potential date for increases. Meanwhile the Bank of Japan failed to increase quantitative easing, pointing to a better economic outlook, despite the poor GDP reading earlier in the week.
Commodities
Cold weather gas rally. US natural gas rose 5% last week as a cold weather snap drove up heating demand. According to Bentek Energy (an energy market analytics company), demand in the northeastern United States on Monday hit the highest level in its 10-year history of data, surpassing the previous high set in the polar vortex of January 2014. However, meteorological agencies expect the bitter cold in the east to pass and normal February weather to resume this week, which is likely to ease gas prices. We saw some flattening in the Brent futures curve this week, as the price of the front month contract moved higher while longer dated contracts fell. WTI fell across the whole curve, giving back some of last week’s gains. Coffee plummeted 8.9% as recent rain in Brazil lifted hopes of a better coffee crop.
Equities
Unicorn or Trojan Horse? The S&P500 and Russell 2000 hit fresh highs, gaining 0.4% and 1% respectively last week. The absence of inflationary pressures has kept equity markets in a jovial mood although political wrangling over Greece’s debt extension took the edge off performance in European bourses toward the end of the week. Indeed, even though EURO STOXX 50® Volatility fell 4.7% in the week up to Thursday, by Friday volatility was back to previous week levels. Nevertheless the FTSE MIB, FTSE 100 and DAX ended the week to Thursday 3.6%, 1.3% and 0.6% higher. The MSCI China A-Share Index rose 2.5% before the domestic Chinese equity markets closed for New Year festivities. Sentiment toward Chinese equities have continued to improve as further central bank easing looks likely..
Currencies
USD to remain buoyant as investors listen to central banks. The gradual improvement of economic activity in an environment devoid of inflationary pressure will keep currency volatility elevated as aggressive stimulus from central banks remains in place. While we initially thought the USD could suffer a near-term correction, it is unlikely to be this week with Fed Chair Yellen, ECB President Draghi amongst the key speakers this week. The takeaway message for investors will be that policy divergences between the US and the rest of the developed world are likely keep the USD supported as other central banks remain firmly in stimulus mode. While it appears that investors are discounting a mid-year rate hike by the Fed, Chair Yellen’s testimony should help bring market expectations back in line with the central banks tightening timing cycle. A stronger dollar is also likely to be reinforced if the CPI readings for the Eurozone, Japan and Canada disappoint, come in under expectations, a likely possibility with oil prices remaining depressed.
Important Information
This communication has been issued and approved for the purpose of section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (”FCA”).
Welcome to the State of Crypto Weekly, an investor-focused newsletter from 21shares that dives into the key trends driving the digital asset landscape.
This week, we’re unveiling our Price Predictions series, unpacking the key drivers for the year ahead:
- Where is Bitcoin headed in 2026?
- Why we think Ethereum can go up to $4,200 this year, and what could drag it down to $1,700.
And, should you find yourself in Davos this week, we would love to connect with you. If you’re up for combining alpine views with crypto conversation, please reach out to our President Duncan Moir, Research Strategist Darius Moukhtarzadeh, or Head of Northern Europe Bernhard Wenger.
Predicting prices is arguably the financial world’s favorite game. In the cryptocurrency market, that interest is multiplied by historical narratives around volatility and market reactions. But what really drives prices? And what do we think is on the cards for Bitcoin and Ethereum in 2026?
WHERE IS BITCOIN HEADED IN 2026?
ETF gravity vs. Macro ceiling
The halving’s influence has peaked. By early 2026, Bitcoin’s price will no longer be driven by this supply shift but by how effectively long-term holders absorb sell-offs from ETFs during shifts in the global economy.
WHY WE THINK ETHEREUM CAN GO UP TO $4,200 THIS YEAR…
And what could drag it down to $1,700
Price action is now driven less by the ultrasound money narrative that shaped Ethereum from 2021-2023 and more by ETF flows and whether real economic throughput on Ethereum can translate into sustainable, profitable consumer applications.
This shift has accelerated over the past quarter as Ethereum’s position as the preferred venue for stablecoins and tokenized assets has further consolidated.
In case you missed it
21shares in the world
Commenting on lower inflation data in the US
Crypto research strategist Matt Mena was quoted on CoinDesk: “This morning’s CPI report has provided the definitive anchor the market needed to clear the lingering data fog from late 2025. Core CPI coming in lower than expected reinforces the Fed’s soft landing narrative and increases chances of further cuts this year, even amid political noise around the DOJ’s investigation into Chair Powell.”
Matt was also quoted on Forbes: ”This Supreme Court ruling on federal tariff authority will be a massive volatility driver for both the dollar and risk assets.”
On our radar
What we’re keeping an eye on
Our senior sales associate, Bruna Cabús, will be on CNN Brasil tomorrow, Tuesday, at 7:30 PM BRT to talk about crypto. In the meantime, connect with her on LinkedIn.
Our very own crypto research strategist Darius Moukhtarzadeh will be speaking at Web3 Hub in Davos on Thursday, January 22.
Connect with us today
If you have any questions or want to discuss a product in detail, please visit our website at www.21shares.com
Digitala valutor
Research Newsletter
Each week the 21Shares Research team will publish our data-driven insights into the crypto asset world through this newsletter. Please direct any comments, questions, and words of feedback to research@21shares.com
Disclaimer
The information provided does not constitute a prospectus or other offering material and does not contain or constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy securities in any jurisdiction. Some of the information published herein may contain forward-looking statements. Readers are cautioned that any such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks and uncertainties and that actual results may differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements as a result of various factors. The information contained herein may not be considered as economic, legal, tax or other advice and users are cautioned to base investment decisions or other decisions solely on the content hereof.
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