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Oil: Backwardation to the future

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Oil: Backwardation to the future

Oil futures curves have been in backwardation – when the closer futures contract can be sold for a higher price than it costs to buy a futures contract with a further expiry date, resulting in a profit for the investor – for most of the past year, driven by perceived tightness in short-term supply1. This has provided investors with ‘roll yield’ on top of the gains made from spot price movements in oil.

While we believe that the oil market is balanced at present, there is supply tightness in specific areas – especially in heavier crudes – and this could be enough to ensure that the oil futures curve remains mostly in backwardation going forward. Here’s a closer look at current oil market supply and demand dynamics.

Oil curve backwardation

Recent curve backwardation has largely been engineered by the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). Since January 2017, the oil cartel has restricted the supply of oil by assigning its members and partners a quota for the amount of oil that they produce. Although the cartel has historically had a poor history of complying with quotas, this time it has done exceptionally well. Part of the reason for this, is that up until June 2018, each country was allocated an individual quota (rather than a group-wide limit) and this helped to restrict oil supply.

Another reason OPEC has done well in complying with quotas is because of unintended production disruptions. Recently, Venezuela has experienced an economic implosion, and this has impacted oil production significantly. Supply disruptions in Libya and Nigeria have also contributed to OPEC supply volatility.

Can backwardation last?

In June 2018, OPEC abandoned individual country quotas, so the level of quota compliance that we have seen over the past year may not last if the organisation reverts to its old ways. This could explain why the very front of the Brent futures curve went back into contango – when it costs more to buy the new futures contract than the amount received from selling the old futures contract – in July and August. Indeed, Saudi Arabia – the largest OPEC nation – has clearly expanded production since the end of the country-quota system, as have other countries.

After going back to an all-backwardated curve, the short end of the curve is now back in contango, a move underpinned by fears of over supply from increasing rig count in the US, as well as delays in the full implementation of sanctions on Iran. Despite those recent developments, we do not expect them to significantly impact long term supply. While the front end of the curve will remain prone to shifts, we do not see it to durably get back to a mostly contangoed curves.

Figure 1: Year-on-year difference in OPEC oil production

Source: Bloomberg, WisdomTree, data available as of close 05 October 2018.
Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investments may go down in value.

Tightness concentrated in heavy crudes

In relation to supply disruption, supply of the ‘heavier’ crudes is most at risk, in our view. Venezuela, Iran and Canada produce ‘heavy’ (low API gravity), ‘sour’ (high sulphur) crudes and these countries experienced the bulk of supply disruption this year.

Most of the world’s growth in crude oil supply is currently from US tight oil, which is ‘light’ (high API gravity) and ‘sweet’ (low sulphur). So, even though global oil supply is close to balance at the headline level, growth in oil production is uneven, with declines in supply of heavy crudes, and gains in supply of light crudes2.

Moreover, while US tight oil is seeing supply growth, there are limitations to this growth. Infrastructure needs to grow in lock-step with growth in oil production, and infrastructure limitations could slow the pace at which US shale can help satisfy global oil needs.

Demand remains strong for now

Looking at forecasts from the International Energy Agency (IEA), demand for oil looks set to remain healthy, with the IEA expecting oil demand to grow by 1.4 mb/d in 2018, and 1.5 mb/d in 2019 (following 1.5 mb/d growth in 2017). Over the medium term, the dearth of capital investment in oil production is likely to lead to tightness if demand continues to remain robust.

Oil futures likely to remain in backwardation

While we believe that the market is in balance at present, there is supply tightness in specific areas and this could be enough to ensure that the futures curve remains mostly in backwardation.

We don’t believe that a new wave of supply is forthcoming as a lack of investment in oil exploration and production should keep supply contained, and it may only take another supply shock to Libya or to Canada to cast doubts on supply. We also think that demand will remain robust, assuming today’s bullish demand expectations are not unfounded.

Source

1 For a full description of backwardation, contango, roll yields, spot return, total return, excess return and collateral yield please see Costs and Performance Tab on our ETPedia page.

2 Energy Information Administration, WisdomTree, data available as of 04 October 2019.

This material is prepared by WisdomTree and its affiliates and is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of the date of production and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by WisdomTree, nor any affiliate, nor any of their officers, employees or agents. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

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XD5E ETF en utdelande fond som köper aktier från Eurozonen

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Xtrackers MSCI EMU UCITS ETF 1D (XD5E ETF) investerar i aktier med fokus på Europa. Utdelningarna i fonden delas ut till investerarna (Årligen). MSCI EMU möjliggör en bred investering med låga avgifter på ca. 230 aktier.

Xtrackers MSCI EMU UCITS ETF 1D (XD5E ETF) investerar i aktier med fokus på Europa. Utdelningarna i fonden delas ut till investerarna (Årligen). MSCI EMU möjliggör en bred investering med låga avgifter på ca. 230 aktier.

Den totala kostnadskvoten uppgår till 0,12 % p.a. Fonden replikerar det underliggande indexets utveckling genom att köpa alla indexbeståndsdelar (full replikering). Xtrackers MSCI EMU UCITS ETF 1D är en mycket stor ETF med tillgångar på 1 276 miljoner euro under förvaltning. XD5E ETF är äldre än 5 år och har sin hemvist i Luxemburg.

Investeringsstrategi

MSCI EMU-index följer stora och medelstora aktier från länder i Europeiska ekonomiska och monetära unionen.

Indexbeskrivning

MSCI EMU-index syftar till att spegla resultatet på följande marknad:

Stora och medelstora företag från utvecklade EMU-marknader

Täcker cirka 85 % av det fria marknadsvärdet

Viktad med fritt flytande justerat börsvärde

Granskas kvartalsvis

Handla XD5E ETF

Xtrackers MSCI EMU UCITS ETF 1D (XD5E ETF) är en europeisk börshandlad fond. Denna fond handlas på Deutsche Boerse Xetra och London Stock Exchange.

Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETF genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel DEGIRONordnet, Aktieinvest och Avanza.

Börsnoteringar

BörsValutaKortnamn
gettexEURXD5E
Stuttgart Stock ExchangeEURXD5E
Borsa ItalianaEURXD5E
London Stock ExchangeGBXXD5E
SIX Swiss ExchangeCHFXD5E
XETRAEURXD5E

Största innehav

ISINNamnVikt %LandSektor
NL0010273215ASML HOLDING ORD5.21%NetherlandsInformation Technology
FR0000121014LVMH MOET HENNESSY LOUIS VUITT4.33%FranceConsumer Discretionary
FR0000120271TOTALENERGIES SE ORD2.80%FranceEnergy
FR0000120578SANOFI SA ORD2.64%FranceHealth Care
DE0007164600SAP SE ORD2.21%GermanyInformation Technology
FR0000120321L OREAL S.A.2.01%FranceConsumer Staples
DE0007236101SIEMENS ORD1.91%GermanyIndustrials
FR0000121972SCHNEIDER ELECTRIC SE1.71%FranceIndustrials
DE0008404005ALLIANZ SE ORD1.67%GermanyFinancials
FR0000120073AIR LIQUIDE ORD1.64%FranceMaterials
NL0000235190AIRBUS SE1.43%NetherlandsIndustrials
ES0144580Y14IBERDROLA SA1.41%SpainUtilities
DE0005557508DEUTSCHE TELEKOM AG ORD1.40%GermanyCommunication Services
DE000BAY0017BAYER AG1.32%GermanyHealth Care
NL0013654783PROSUS NV ORD1.29%NetherlandsConsumer Discretionary

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Bitcoin’s Volatility and Stablecoin’s Market Viability: What Happened in Crypto This Week?

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Bullish, Bearish, or Both? Macro Mayhem Leads to Bitcoin Volatility Beyond Borders and Banks: Stablecoins Proving their Market Viability

• Bullish, Bearish, or Both? Macro Mayhem Leads to Bitcoin Volatility

• Bitcoin’s Institutional Embrace is Accelerating

• Beyond Borders and Banks: Stablecoins Proving their Market Viability

Macro Mayhem Leads to Bitcoin Volatility

Last week, Bitcoin navigated a wave of conflicting U.S. macroeconomic events. The FOMC press conference last Wednesday confirmed the Fed will sustain high interest rates at 5.25-5.5% as the challenge of achieving the inflation target persists. As shown in Figure 1, this initially triggered Bitcoin’s price to drop by 5.9% as investors sought the safety of fixed-income assets. Friday’s U.S. Jobs report reversed the negative sentiment from the FOMC meeting. The report revealed a disappointing labor market, with only 175,000 non-farm jobs added, as unemployment rose to 3.9%. This data fueled hopes for rate cuts, which bodes well for risk-on assets, which led to Bitcoin rebounding by 6.7% to ~$63,000 by week’s end.

Figure 1: Bitcoin 1 Week Price Performance (April 29, 2024 – May 6, 2024)

Source: TradingView

Looking ahead, several developments could provide tailwinds for Bitcoin. The upcoming Treasury buyback program, the first since 2002, is launching on May 29 and has several implications for the broader financial landscape. By conducting weekly bond buybacks of up to $2 billion, outstanding debt is reduced while liquidity is increased, which could allow capital to flow into riskier assets. The reduced bond supply also puts downward pressure on yields, potentially making Bitcoin more attractive.

The recent Treasury refinancing announcement also looks promising for Bitcoin. A lower target balance for the Treasury General Account (TGA) suggests the government needs to borrow less, which frees up capital. The impact could be compared to quantitative easing, instead of withdrawing liquidity from the market by selling new bonds, the Treasury effectively injects liquidity by not needing to borrow as much. This additional liquidity eventually reaches the banking system, potentially leading to easier access to credit and lower interest rates. As we have voiced throughout, this environment would benefit riskier assets like Bitcoin.

Despite the initial price drop triggered by the Fed’s hawkish stance on interest rates, Bitcoin’s resilience was evident in its subsequent rebound driven by a weakening labor market and the potential prospect of a dovish shift. As illustrated below, Bitcoin’s funding rate is now similar to when it was trading at around $29,000, which signals a healthy market adjustment, shedding excess leverage. Looking ahead, the upcoming Treasury actions will undoubtedly affect U.S. liquidity and interest rate levels, which are key to Bitcoin’s performance and will be closely monitored in the coming weeks.

Figure 2: Bitcoin’s Funding Rate

Source: Glassnode

Bitcoin’s Institutional Embrace is Accelerating

Fueled by the U.S. Bitcoin ETF launch, the institutional adoption of Bitcoin is accelerating. A staggering $175 billion is estimated to be held by ETFs, countries, and public and private companies, representing roughly 15% of the total Bitcoin supply. While miniscule compared to the U.S. launch, Hong Kong’s Bitcoin ETFs further exemplify this trend, accumulating 4.2K BTC, or nearly $270 million, within their first week of trading. This showcases the growing appetite for the asset, however the hunger for Bitcoin is not limited to Hong Kong. Ovata Capital Management’s $60 million allocation into the U.S. spot ETFs underscores this trend, which is set to continue as the May 15 deadline for 13F filings approaches, which may reveal previously undisclosed positions held by institutions.

Recent disclosures by BNY Mellon and BNP Paribas, along with Swiss funds Bellecapital International and Lugano Financial Advisors, provide further evidence of Bitcoin’s institutionalization. Moreover, according to BlackRock, the world’s largest sovereign wealth funds (SWFs), including Norway’s $1.6 trillion fund, Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund, and Kuwait’s Investment Authority, are re-initiating discussions around Bitcoin. The SWF industry is valued at $11.6 trillion, therefore even a moderate allocation into the asset could see demand catapult to new levels, and provide a tipping point for broader adoption. Importantly, it is becoming more difficult to discount the asset – Bitcoin’s unique profile as both a risk-on and risk-off asset is becoming increasingly relevant given the complex macroeconomic landscape.

Further, Bitcoin’s adoption is transcending passive investment strategies. For instance, fintech giant Nubank, housing 80 million users, now offers crypto deposits and withdrawals, aiming to bridge the gap between traditional finance and crypto in Latin America. Lastly, Microstrategy, synonymous with their commitment to Bitcoin, are pushing the boundaries further by building an identity solution on the Ordinals network. This exemplifies the use of Bitcoin beyond a decentralized payment system, a notion we have echoed in the past weeks as Bitcoin continues to evolve beyond its original purpose.

Finally, the coming weeks promise further clues on the US economic trajectory and Bitcoin institutional adoption. There are eight Fed speaker events this week, and while they don’t directly address crypto, they often offer valuable insights into the current economic conditions. This, coupled with the turbulence expected during Q1 earnings season, could create volatility in equity markets, which may spill over to crypto as investors react accordingly.

Beyond Borders and Banks: Stablecoins Proving their Market Viability

After a six-year hiatus, Stripe is re-entering the crypto industry by enabling customers to accept stablecoins for online payments. Stripe was among the pioneers in integrating Bitcoin back in 2014. However, they ceased support in 2018 due to Bitcoin’s prolonged processing times and high transaction costs, which didn’t present a significant improvement over its traditional counterpart. Since then, the industry has undergone a major transformation, with the emergence of numerous smart-contract platforms and scaling efforts, enhancing the potential of crypto’s infrastructure to offer a superior user experience.

For instance, Stripe’s co-founder showcased a $100 USDC payment using Solana at the company’s annual conference. The demo corroborated how the payment was processed in less than a second instead of days while incurring $0.0037 in network fees, a cost reduction of almost 800-fold compared to a credit card. This is a testament to the advancements achieved by the latest generation of platforms, such as Solana, which addressed some of the drawbacks, like high transaction costs and lengthy processing times, while demonstrating their efficacy for use cases requiring a high volume of interactions, such as payments.

To that end, Stripe will begin supporting USDC payments through Ethereum, Solana, and Polygon. This integration marks a significant milestone, given Stripe’s substantial 35% market share in the payments industry. However, it’s even more crucial as users can seamlessly leverage the efficiencies of crypto’s infrastructure, ensuring reduced transaction costs and notably swifter processing times while remaining unaware of the use of blockchain technology in the backend. This mirrors how users are often unaware of the payment infrastructure their preferred fintech apps utilize. At 21Shares, we firmly believe that this kind of seamless integration is imperative for the widespread adoption of crypto.

That said, while Tether leads by market capitalization with $110 billion compared to USDC’s $33 billion, USDC actually dominates in terms of usage when looking at transaction volume. According to Visa’s latest on-chain analytical dashboard aiming to dissect the growth of the stablecoin sector, USDC is now responsible for more than 70% of all stablecoin payments, as illustrated below. As we’ve emphasized for years, exemplified by our own work on Dune, on-chain analytics represents the future of capital markets. It offers unparalleled transparency and real-time data access, unlike traditional industries reliant on periodic disclosures of quarterly financials. Therefore, Visa’s active engagement in on-chain analytics marks a watershed moment, reaffirming our long-held belief that this is the path forward.

Figure 3: Stablecoins Monthly Transaction Volume

Source: Alluvium X Visa

Despite USDC’s widespread adoption, Tether has achieved remarkable financial success in Q1. The company raked in a staggering $4.52B in profits by strategically deploying user deposits into U.S. treasury and repurchase agreements. The exposure to debt, coupled with rising Bitcoin and Gold prices, has proven to be a lucrative formula. As a result, Tether’s net profit now eclipses that of financial giants like Citibank, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley, highlighting the burgeoning business potential of the fiat-backed stablecoin model.

Further, characterized by its disintermediated structure and emphasis on user experience, stablecoins have proven themselves as a viable alternative within the financial landscape. They are arguably one of crypto’s most compelling use cases right now. Its significance becomes even more apparent in regions facing economic instability, where users turn to stablecoins as a swift means to access the U.S. dollar, safeguarding themselves against currency devaluation. Turkey serves as a notable case study, stablecoin transactions account for a remarkable 4% of the nation’s GDP, the highest proportion globally, at a time when the Turkish Lira lost more than 75% of its value against the U.S. dollar over the last 5 years.

Finally, Tether is intensifying its efforts by launching USDT on the TON blockchain, which is closely linked to Telegram. Despite TON’s recent rise in popularity with approximately 1.74M users, it aims to tap into Telegram’s vast 900M user base through its deep integration. This move could significantly expand the market for stablecoins, currently serving around 25M users. Moreover, this integration is a pivotal step in simplifying crypto usage, concealing its complexities, and paving the way for mass adoption.

This Week’s Calendar

Source: Forex Factory, 21Shares

Research Newsletter

Each week the 21Shares Research team will publish our data-driven insights into the crypto asset world through this newsletter. Please direct any comments, questions, and words of feedback to research@21shares.com

Disclaimer

The information provided does not constitute a prospectus or other offering material and does not contain or constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy securities in any jurisdiction. Some of the information published herein may contain forward-looking statements. Readers are cautioned that any such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks and uncertainties and that actual results may differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements as a result of various factors. The information contained herein may not be considered as economic, legal, tax or other advice and users are cautioned to base investment decisions or other decisions solely on the content hereof.

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Endast en tredjedel av brittiska privatinvesterare har hört talas om ansvarsfulla investeringar eller ESG

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AXA IM Select-undersökning visar att endast 33 % har hört talas om "ansvarsfulla investeringar" och bara 32 % om "ESG"
  • AXA IM Select-undersökning visar att endast 33 % har hört talas om ”ansvarsfulla investeringar” och bara 32 % om ”ESG”
  • Fler investerare (46 %) hade hört talas om ”hållbara” eller ”etiska” investeringar (43 %)
  • High-Net-Worth-investerare har med största sannolikhet hört talas om nyckelord som ”ESG” (58 %)
  • AXA IM kräver att fler åtgärder vidtas för att utbilda investerare och förbättra finansiell kompetens för att hjälpa till att hantera förvirring och kunskapsluckor

Endast en tredjedel av de brittiska investerarna har hört termen ”ansvarsfulla investeringar” eller ”ESG”, enligt forskning från AXA IM Select.

I resultat som avslöjar en stor medvetenhetsklyfta i Storbritannien, hade bara 33 % av de tillfrågade i undersökningen av 840 investerare hört talas om ansvarsfulla investeringar, och endast 32 % av ESG.

Medan ett större antal respondenter var medvetna om ”hållbara investeringar” (46 %) och ”etiska investeringar” (43 %), hade mindre än en femtedel (18 %) hört talas om ”effektinvesteringar”.

Ålder och kön visade sig ha liten betydelse för investerarnas medvetenhet om termer som ESG och ansvarsfulla investeringar, även om äldre investerare var mer benägna att vara bekanta med ”etiska investeringar” och ”gröna investeringar”.

Investerare med större portföljer var den grupp som befanns ha störst medvetenhet om nyckelbegrepp. Nästan två tredjedelar (63 %) av High-Net-Worth-investerarna i undersökningen hade hört talas om ”hållbara investeringar” medan 59 % hade hört talas om ”etiska investeringar” och 58 % ”ESG”.

Bertrand Penverne, Global Head of ESG på AXA IM Select, säger att forskningen avslöjar det avgörande behovet av utbildning för att driva på den hållbara övergången och säkerställa att investerare helt kan anpassa sina portföljer med sina värderingar och mål.

”I denna tid är det lätt att anta att vardagliga branschtermer som ansvarsfulla investeringar och ESG är allmänt kända och förstådda av de flesta investerare, men forskningen visar att det är långt ifrån fallet”, säger Penverne.

”I en tid då det aldrig har funnits ett mer pressande behov av att kanalisera kapital till de investeringar som vill göra en positiv skillnad för världen, är det ett stort bekymmer att de flesta investerare inte ens är medvetna om vilka typer av fonder som gör detta.

”AXA Group började nyligen erbjuda utbildning om utmaningarna med klimatförändringar till sina enskilda aktieägare, genom AXA Climate School, som ett sätt att utbilda så många människor som möjligt om de miljöhot som vi alla står inför. Och på branschnivå går organisationer som Pensions for Purpose, där AXA IM är medlem, långt för att överbrygga kunskapsluckor inom området ESG, hållbarhet och påverkan. Dessutom stödjer AXA IM-team underliggande investerare genom RI-utbildningsprogram.

”Men det är uppenbart att vi som bransch har mycket mer att göra för att öka medvetenheten och förståelsen för de olika investeringstermerna för RI mer allmänt om vi ska förbättra finansiell kunskap och påskynda övergången till en koldioxidsnål, dygdig värld.”

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