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Gold, Silver and Oil ETPs see Strong Inflows as Situation in Iraq Deteriorates
ETF Securities – Gold, Silver and Oil ETPs see Strong Inflows as Situation in Iraq Deteriorates. Last week, the Iraqi conflict remained in focus, with precious metals and oil ETPs seeing strong inflows on fears of a deterioration of the situation in the country. The Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant announced the establishment of a caliphate earlier today, spurring fears extended violence may be inevitable. Meanwhile, a stronger than expected China’s HSBC manufacturing PMI last week indicates that stimulus policies are starting to have an impact on the economy, prompting investors to become more positive on cyclical commodities such as industrial metals. We believe growth bottomed in Q1, with a relatively rebound in store in H2, marking a key economic turning point after three years of slowdown.
Iraqi conflict drives US$119.5mn of inflows into long gold ETPs. The Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant’s (ISIS) attack in northern Iraq has driven up safe haven asset demand, with gold ETPs seeing the second consecutive week of inflows and the largest since March 2013. Both gold and silver prices rose to multi-week highs last week as investors are concerned about the violence spreading further south, potentially eventually leading to an outright civil war. Brent crude ETPs also saw continued inflows on the back of the Iraqi conflict last week.
Long silver ETP inflows rise to the highest level since March
A 4.5% rise in the silver price helped drive US$26.9mn of inflows into silver ETP last week. While the recent rally has likely been driven by the elevated correlation of silver with gold, its wide use in industrial applications puts it in a good position to benefit from a global recovery. With silver demand increasing on the back of a recovering global economy and total supply declining, another supply deficit is expected this year.
Long wheat ETPs see another week of strong inflows on low inventory expectations
The USDA will release its quarterly report on US inventories later today. However, expectations are for ending wheat stocks to be at a 6-year low, prompting investors to accumulate US$10.6mn into long wheat products ahead of the report. Abundant rainfall in the US Midwest could also boost wheat prices as it could delay harvesting or spoil the quality of the wheat. At the same time, ETFS Corn (CORN) saw US$10.2mn of outflows on abundant supply. Inventories are expected to be at 4-year high despite potential damage caused by the recent heavy rainfall.
Industrial metals are back in favour as China’s outlook improves
ETFS Industrial Metals (AIGI) recorded US$34.4mn of inflows last week, the largest in over 3 years, as looser policy in China is likely to favour cyclical commodities. We believe growth bottomed in Q1, with a rebound in store in H2, marking a key economic turning point after three years of slowdown. At the same time, investors withdrew US$30.2mn from ETFS Daily Short Industrial Metals (SIME) as they became more positive on the industrial metal sector. Profit taking and short covering drove US$12.0mn of outflows from both long and short copper ETPs last week as the price jumped 3.7%. Meanwhile, long nickel ETPs recorded US$3.6mn of inflows as the recent price correction is seen as a buying opportunity.
Key events to watch this week
This week investors will likely focus on the European Central Bank rate decision and US non-farm payrolls, both to be released on Thursday, as the US market will be closed for the Independence Day on Friday. While no major initiatives are expected to be announced during the ECB meeting, it will be interesting to see what President Draghi will say at the press conference following the meeting. China’s official PMI release and US ISM manufacturing index will also be watched closely as investors assess the strength of the two economies.
Important Information
This communication has been issued and approved for the purpose of section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (”FCA”).
• Global crypto asset adoption rates are significantly higher than previously estimated.
• The data generally suggest that both the US and Europe may be at the cusp of mass retail adoption – a situation often referred to as “Hyperbitcoinization” in the context of Bitcoin.
• Chances are that the growth of adoption will surprise to the upside due to the fact that we are most likely at the inflection point from ”Early Adopters” to ”Early Majority”.
Trump recently made a public statement implying that 50 million Americans already held ”crypto”. The most recent surveys among US consumers seem to support this number.
It is no surprise that cryptoassets have become a major topic during the US presidential election as the parties have become increasingly aware that cryptoasset users could play a significant role at the ballot.
Both Trump and Robert Kennedy Jr. are scheduled to deliver a pro-Bitcoin speech at the upcoming Bitcoin conference in Nashville over the weekend.
It seems as if cryptoasset users are not a small minority anymore that can be ignored.
Here are some recent US bitcoin and crypto adoption surveys for comparison (% of total population in brackets):
• Security.org: 93 mn (28%)
• Unchained: 86 mn (26%)
• Statista: 53.6 mn (16%)
• Morning Consult: 44.2 mn (13%)
• Finder: 38.4 mn (11%)
In general, cryptoasset adoption has been on the rise globally.
A recent global survey among institutional investors conducted by Fidelity even implies that 51% of surveyed institutional investors have already invested into cryptoassets such as Bitcoin.
Another recent consumer survey by Statista implies that approximately every 5th person (21%) worldwide has already invested into cryptoassets.
However, it’s important to highlight that among the top 10 regions with the highest adoption rates, 8 regions are developing countries.
So, cryptoasset adoption rates are even significantly higher among developing countries than in developed countries that often suffer from chronically high inflation rates and weak domestic currencies.
That being said, the data generally suggest that both the US and Europe may be at the cusp of mass retail adoption – a situation often referred to as “Hyperbitcoinization” in the context of Bitcoin.
The reason is that technological adoption in general tends to accelerate at the threshold from the so-called “early adopters” to the “early majority” which is around 16% adoption rate based on the model of technological adoption famously put forth by Rogers (1962).
Global adoption rates are already at 21% while adoption rates in the US and Europe are at around 16% and 14%, respectively. So, there is a strong case for an acceleration of adoption rates in these regions and globally over the coming years.
Recent political developments in the US also imply that Bitcoin and cryptoassets are gradually becoming mainstream.
Trump has recently endorsed domestic Bitcoin mining in the US and both Democrats and Republicans have started accepting crypto payments for campaign financing.
The big success of the spot Bitcoin ETFs this year and the fact that additional types of spot crypto ETFs are being launched marks a significant shift in sentiment among US regulators in this regard.
In short, chances are that the growth of adoption will surprise to the upside due to the fact that we are most-likely at the inflection point from ”Early Adopters” to ”Early Majority”.
Bottom Line
• Global crypto asset adoption rates are significantly higher than previously estimated.
• The data generally suggest that both the US and Europe may be at the cusp of mass retail adoption – a situation often referred to as “Hyperbitcoinization” in the context of Bitcoin.
• Chances are that the growth of adoption will surprise to the upside due to the fact that we are most likely at the inflection point from ”Early Adopters” to ”Early Majority”.
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