Nyheter
Gold price breaks up through 200 DMA, investors start to nibble
ETF Securities – Gold price breaks up through 200 DMA, investors start to nibble. The gold price broke through US$1,300oz and then up through its 200 day moving average (dma) last week as dollar weakness following weak US economic data helped to build momentum. Meanwhile, Kazakhstan joined Argentina in devaluing its currency, as emerging market currency contagion hit the country. With fears of a potential crisis still lingering in the background, investors favored allocations to gold and silver ETPs last week as a hedge against potential worst-case scenarios. The Fed’s incoming Chairman reaffirmed that the central bank will maintain a low interest rate policy for an extended period of time also helped buoy gold and silver prices. Despite large January imports from China, investors reduced positions in copper last week, while tactically increasing allocations in agriculture and energy.
Long gold ETPs see US$9.1mn of inflows as price breaks through US$1,300oz and its 200 day moving average on weak Dollar. Soft economic data from the US, coupled with re-affirmed continued stimulus from the Fed, weighed on the US dollar last week, in turn pushing the gold price higher. Investors appear to have been reassured the Fed will maintain stimulus for a “considerable time” as the “labour market is far from complete”, according to new Fed Chairman Yellen’s testimony to the Congress. The last time gold traded around these levels was in November 2013, before the Fed started tapering. Meanwhile, Kazakhstan joined Argentina in devaluing its currency last week, as emerging market currency contagion hit the country, spurring investors’ demand for safe havens. Long silver ETPs also saw net inflows of US$5.7mn, on EM woes and hopes of continued stimulus from the Fed.
ETFS Corn (CORN) sees US$21.2mn of inflows, the largest since May 2008, on continued price weakness. The USDA now expects corn acreage to decrease by 2% in 2014 and forecasts prices to average US$3.65 per bushel in 2014/2015, against US$4.50 as of 2013/2014. Wheat ETPs also received strong inflows last week, totalling US$4.4mn, on lower ending stocks expectations. The USDA unexpectedly revised domestic and global wheat inventories down last week, suggesting wheat market might be tighter than expected.
Henry Hub natural gas spot price surges to over US$5.4 mmBtu driving US$8.2mn into long and leveraged natural gas ETPs. It was reported that US natural gas inventories fell 27% below the five-year average last week, as cold weather continued to engulf the US. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), January was the coldest year start since 2001. A blast in a Kentucky natural gas pipeline on Thursday also contributed to the price increase. We anticipate price declines in the coming weeks as the cold weather subsides.
ETFS Copper (COPA) sees another week of outflows, bringing the month total to US$85mn, on concerns EM crisis may derail demand. In addition, the market is expecting strong copper production growth as a result of past capital investments coming into pipeline in 2014. However, should those expectations be disappointed, the copper price could potentially react strongly. Meanwhile, copper demand remains robust with Chinese imports up 53% in January from a year earlier. Although forward purchases ahead of the New Year celebrations might have played a role, China’s appetite for copper and other industrial metals remains strong.
Key events to watch this week
The Fed minutes scheduled to be released this week will likely be in focus, as investors will try to gather the pace of further tapering and/or potential tightening. PMI manufacturing numbers for the Eurozone will also be monitored. After January’s disappointing numbers, the Markit US preliminary PMI will be watched closely.
Important Information
This communication has been provided by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority.
• Global crypto asset adoption rates are significantly higher than previously estimated.
• The data generally suggest that both the US and Europe may be at the cusp of mass retail adoption – a situation often referred to as “Hyperbitcoinization” in the context of Bitcoin.
• Chances are that the growth of adoption will surprise to the upside due to the fact that we are most likely at the inflection point from ”Early Adopters” to ”Early Majority”.
Trump recently made a public statement implying that 50 million Americans already held ”crypto”. The most recent surveys among US consumers seem to support this number.
It is no surprise that cryptoassets have become a major topic during the US presidential election as the parties have become increasingly aware that cryptoasset users could play a significant role at the ballot.
Both Trump and Robert Kennedy Jr. are scheduled to deliver a pro-Bitcoin speech at the upcoming Bitcoin conference in Nashville over the weekend.
It seems as if cryptoasset users are not a small minority anymore that can be ignored.
Here are some recent US bitcoin and crypto adoption surveys for comparison (% of total population in brackets):
• Security.org: 93 mn (28%)
• Unchained: 86 mn (26%)
• Statista: 53.6 mn (16%)
• Morning Consult: 44.2 mn (13%)
• Finder: 38.4 mn (11%)
In general, cryptoasset adoption has been on the rise globally.
A recent global survey among institutional investors conducted by Fidelity even implies that 51% of surveyed institutional investors have already invested into cryptoassets such as Bitcoin.
Another recent consumer survey by Statista implies that approximately every 5th person (21%) worldwide has already invested into cryptoassets.
However, it’s important to highlight that among the top 10 regions with the highest adoption rates, 8 regions are developing countries.
So, cryptoasset adoption rates are even significantly higher among developing countries than in developed countries that often suffer from chronically high inflation rates and weak domestic currencies.
That being said, the data generally suggest that both the US and Europe may be at the cusp of mass retail adoption – a situation often referred to as “Hyperbitcoinization” in the context of Bitcoin.
The reason is that technological adoption in general tends to accelerate at the threshold from the so-called “early adopters” to the “early majority” which is around 16% adoption rate based on the model of technological adoption famously put forth by Rogers (1962).
Global adoption rates are already at 21% while adoption rates in the US and Europe are at around 16% and 14%, respectively. So, there is a strong case for an acceleration of adoption rates in these regions and globally over the coming years.
Recent political developments in the US also imply that Bitcoin and cryptoassets are gradually becoming mainstream.
Trump has recently endorsed domestic Bitcoin mining in the US and both Democrats and Republicans have started accepting crypto payments for campaign financing.
The big success of the spot Bitcoin ETFs this year and the fact that additional types of spot crypto ETFs are being launched marks a significant shift in sentiment among US regulators in this regard.
In short, chances are that the growth of adoption will surprise to the upside due to the fact that we are most-likely at the inflection point from ”Early Adopters” to ”Early Majority”.
Bottom Line
• Global crypto asset adoption rates are significantly higher than previously estimated.
• The data generally suggest that both the US and Europe may be at the cusp of mass retail adoption – a situation often referred to as “Hyperbitcoinization” in the context of Bitcoin.
• Chances are that the growth of adoption will surprise to the upside due to the fact that we are most likely at the inflection point from ”Early Adopters” to ”Early Majority”.
To read more about suitable investment solutions by ETC Group, please click the button below:
This is not investment advice. Capital at risk. Read the full disclaimer
© ETC Group 2019-2024 | All rights reserved
Are we about to enter “Hyperbitcoinization”?
Investera i Optimism med en börshandlad produkt
JPGH ETF investerar i amerikanska tillväxtaktier
Bitcoin as a hedge against geopolitical risks?
DFND ETF investerar i flyg- och försvarsindustrin
Vilka var juni månads populäraste EFTer?
Harwood Capital Management samarbetar med HANetf för att lansera sin första UCITS ETF
Att tajma marknaden är en förlorande strategi
Börshandlade fonder ser inflöden på mer än en halv miljon troy ounce platina
The Bitcoin Macro Investor
-
Nyheter4 veckor sedanVilka var juni månads populäraste EFTer?
-
Nyheter1 vecka sedanHarwood Capital Management samarbetar med HANetf för att lansera sin första UCITS ETF
-
Nyheter2 veckor sedanAtt tajma marknaden är en förlorande strategi
-
Nyheter3 veckor sedanBörshandlade fonder ser inflöden på mer än en halv miljon troy ounce platina
-
Nyheter3 veckor sedanThe Bitcoin Macro Investor
-
Nyheter4 veckor sedanInvestera i koppar med hjälp av börshandlade produkter
-
Nyheter3 veckor sedanCETH ETP en börshandlad produkt på Ethereum som ger staking intäkter
-
Nyheter4 veckor sedanSyntetiska börshandlade fonder: Vad det är, hur det fungerar
