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Gold outlook: flat for the year

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8 år sedan

den

10 januari, 2018

Redaktionen

ETF Securities Gold outlook: flat for the year

Summary

Our base-case fair-value for gold is broadly flat over the coming year, as support from rising inflation will counter the downward pressure from rising interest rates.
Despite policy interest rates rising in 2017, the US Dollar has depreciated and US Treasury yields have declined. We expect these paradoxical trends to abate in 2018.

Most of the variation in gold price in our bull and bear cases (compared to our base case) comes from assumptions around investor positioning. Many measures of market volatility are currently subdued. However, several risks – both political and financial – exist. Sentiment towards gold could shift significantly depending on which of these views dominate market psyche.

Gold Price Forecast

We believe that in addition to the fully-priced-in December 2017 hike, the US central bank will follow through with three further rate hikes in 2018. That comes on top of the balance-sheet run-off that the Fed has already announced1. Although some market participants think that under a new Chair, the Fed will become more dovish, we believe the central bank will
remain data-dependent and trained staff economists’ analysis will become more influential in the Board’s decision making. In light of strengthening domestic demand and a tight labour market, the inflationary potential will be hard to ignore.

Inflation to gain momentum

Inflation has been subdued in 2017, despite so many signs of cyclical strength, but a large number of idiosyncratic factors account for this apparent weakness in price movements. Dominant wireless phone service providers changing pricing; solar eclipse changing the timing of hotel stays; severe hurricane disruptions; budget airlines opening new routes are some of the idiosyncratic factors that are unlikely to be repeated. Also the calculation of owner occupied equivalent rent has caused some distortions in the inflation numbers as it is sensitive to energy prices. With volatility in energy prices having fallen, we expect these distortions to subside. The unemployment rate is at its lowest in 16 years and a healthy number of jobs are being added every month (notwithstanding hurricane disruptions). The strength in the labour market is now likely to show up in inflation as per its traditional relationship.

We expect US inflation to rise to 2.4% in June 2018 and 2.6% by December 2018 (from 2.2% in September 2017). These levels will likely be uncomfortably high for the Fed, but given the lags in policy and price response, there is little the Fed can do next year to stop it (the inflationary pressure has been built up this year). However, we believe three rate hikes in 2018 will be required to keep inflation expectations sufficiently anchored.

CPI Inflation

US Treasury yields

During the rate tightening that has taken place in 2017, the US Treasury yield curve has flattened. While there have been 75bps of policy rate increases since December 2016, nominal 10-year Treasury yields have fallen from 2.60% to 2.34%. We don’t think that 10-year yields can continue to decline. We expect 10- year Treasury yields to rise to 3.1% by the end of 2018.

Nominal US 10yr Bond Yields

We expect the US Dollar to appreciate modestly (see FX Outlook 2018), reversing some of the weakness that we have seen in 2017. We expect the DXY (the trade weighted US dollar index) to appreciate to 102 by the end of 2018 from 94 currently. A lack of progress in implementing pro-growth policies that the Trump Administration had promised, a lack of tax and budget reform and a generally stronger Euro and Yen have weighed on the US Dollar in 2017.

Some of these trends will continue to drag on dollar performance in 2018, but rising interest rates will lend some support. We believe that the policy divergence between the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Bank of Japan will become more pronounced as the market becomes increasingly disappointed by the pace of tapering by the latter two central banks. That will reverse some of the strength in the Euro and Yen.

US Dollar Exchange Rate

Market sentiment

We expect CFTC futures market positioning in gold to hover around 120k contracts net long, lower than current positioning (190k), but marginally higher than the long-term average positioning of around 90k contracts net long. Currently positioning is elevated due to investor fears around continued sabre-rattling between US/Japan and North Korea and some of the tensions in the Middle East. These concerns could fall away if new developments on these geopolitical issues do not resurface. We have observed that when such geopolitical issues simmer in the background, political risk-premia tends to dissipate from the price of gold. It requires keeping the issues at the forefront of market psyche for the premia to endure.

Bull case

Our bull case for gold assumes only two rate hikes in 2018. As a result the DXY only rises to 99 and treasury yields only rise to 2.8%. We assume that inflation rises to 3%.
We raise the investor positioning in gold to 200k contracts net long for the whole forecast horizon. This is one of the main drivers of higher gold prices in this scenario compared to the base case. There are numerous risks which can push demand for gold futures higher:

• Continued sabre-rattling between US/Japan/South Korea and North Korea;
• The proxy war between Saudi Arabia and Iran escalates;
• A disorderly unwind of credit in China;
• Italian policy paralysed by the inability to form a government after the election;
• Catalonian independence pushing Spain close to civil war
• A potential second general election in Germany; and
• Market volatility measures such as the VIX (equity), MOVE (bond) spike as yield-trades unwind

In the bull case scenario, gold will rise to US$1420/oz by the middle of the year, and ease to just below US$1400/oz by the end of 2018.

Bear case

In our bear case, we assume the Fed delivers four rates hikes in 2018 as it tries to anchor inflation expectations. 10-year nominal Treasury yields rise to 3.3% by the end of the year, while the DXY appreciates to 105. By year-end inflation falls back to 1.6%. In this scenario we assume that the absence of any geopolitical risk premia or adverse financial market shock and so speculative positioning falls to 40k contracts net long. In the bear case scenario gold falls to US$1110/oz by end of 2018.

Important Information

General

This communication has been issued and approved for the purpose of section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (“ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (the “FCA”).

The information contained in this communication is for your general information only and is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investments may go down in value.

This document is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares or securities in the United States or any province or territory thereof. Neither this document nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States.

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Invesco: Gold signals a shifting world order without a new leader

Publicerad

12 timmar sedan

den

28 april, 2026

Redaktionen

The United States remains economically and financially dominant, but beneath the surface doubts are growing about how sustainable that position really is. According to Benjamin Jones, head of research at Invesco, the continued rise in gold suggests that investors are preparing for a world in which the balance of power is shifting, without any clear alternative leader emerging.

The US twin deficits

The joint, pre-2025 rally in US risk assets and the dollar sits uneasily with concerns over US fiscal and current-account deficits, a deteriorating Net International Investment Position (NIIP), reindustrialisation goals, and the secular rise in gold, explains Jones.

“In our view, the long-running rally in gold alongside high returns and rising concentration in dollar assets reflects two forces: a faltering world order and the economics of heavy US fiscal imbalances, rising external obligations, and persistent deficits; but also, the unique success of US firms in driving GDP growth, earnings and innovation. Ironically, that strength may itself increase the risk of a financial, currency or balance-of-payments shock in a geopolitical crisis.”

According to Jones, the sharp drop in the US NIIP has come as foreign claims outstrip US claims abroad. “This was driven less by foreign Treasury holdings, which have stabilised, and more by inflows into private-sector assets, especially equities, as investors embraced “US Exceptionalism” as shorthand for superior growth and financial performance relative to peers such as Western Europe and Japan. The result has been major inflows into US equities, corporate debt and private markets.”

Even though much of the increase in exposure has been to risk assets rather than bonds, large outflows could still threaten fiscal and financial stability, says Jones. “For now, trade barriers and efforts to weaken the dollar to promote reindustrialisation have prompted rebalancing away from US stocks, bonds and the dollar. Amid geopolitical tensions, weaker fiscal and external positions, and renewed protectionism and unpredictability, official investors and private investors have sharply increased gold purchases as a store of value.”

Heavy gold flow in financial markets

US financial leadership persists despite geoeconomic rebalancing toward rivals, Jones continues. “The US still leads in market capitalisation, turnover and liquidity, while the Treasury market remains the largest and deepest pool of debt issuance. Dollar liquidity is so high that trades <<between other currencies are often executed through the dollar. Global portfolio concentration in the US has also been reinforced by inflows into benchmarked funds and passive trackers. The core driver remains US exceptionalism. Rich valuations and concentration in US tech may suggest a bubble, yet US firms have continued to deliver innovation, market share, revenue and earnings growth.”

According to Jones, rivals remain less compelling from a market perspective. “Europe has lagged the US since the financial crisis, while China has matched or surpassed US innovation but, until recently, delivered weaker market returns due to domestic de-risking policies.”

The US share of official reserves has declined somewhat, while the euro and most other currencies have levelled off, Jones continues. “Gold’s share has risen sharply since the start of the war in Ukraine in 2022, suggesting the TINA problem persists: there is no real alternative to the dollar other than gold itself. Central banks increasingly prefer the safety of gold, the liability of no government.”

Future: Geopolitical, economic, technological and military competition
An open world economy helped many countries narrow productivity gaps with the US, but leadership is no longer aligned across power domains. “Economically, the world is increasingly tripolar, centred on the US, China and the eurozone. Militarily, power is concentrated in the US, China and Russia. Technologically, the US and China are at or near parity, while others lag. Financially, however, the US still has no peer,” notes Jones.

He continues: “Conventional economic, military and technological competition therefore still matters, even in a nuclear world. US concerns about overextension are sharpened by China’s vast industrial capacity, with output and shipbuilding far exceeding that of the US. Recent wars have shown that modern conflict still depends on industrial mobilisation for technology, drones and ammunition. This helps explain the US push for reindustrialisation.”

At the same time, US fiscal and external obligations create vulnerabilities if confidence were shaken by a future crisis, conflict or major shock. Jones concludes: “Washington is also retreating from parts of the multilateral order while seeking to reshape global trade more in its favour, reinforcing perceptions of unilateralism. Gold may be signaling an incomplete global reordering: not a clear new polarity, but an “unipolar” world in which leadership shifts by issue, region and moment. The US and the dollar would still likely remain first among equals, supported by deep financial markets, technological dynamism and strategic advantages, even as rival powers continue to rise.”

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ASLT ETF företagsobligatoner med kort duration

Publicerad

13 timmar sedan

den

28 april, 2026

Redaktionen

AXA IM Short Duration Income UCITS ETF USD Dist (ASLT ETF) med ISIN IE000P0AMD16, är en aktivt förvaltad börshandlad fond.

ETFen investerar i företagsobligationer från hela världen. Rating: Investment grade. Löptid: 1–3 år.

Den börshandlade fondens totala kostnadskvot (TER) uppgår till 0,19 % per år. Ränteintäkterna (kuponger) i ETFen delas ut till investerarna (månadsvis).

AXA IM Short Duration Income UCITS ETF USD Dist är en mycket liten ETF med 0 miljoner euro förvaltade tillgångar. Denna ETF lanserades den 9 juli 2025 och har sitt säte i Irland.

Handla ASLT ETF

AXA IM Short Duration Income UCITS ETF USD Dist (ASLT ETF) är en europeisk börshandlad fond. Denna fond handlas på flera olika börser, till exempel Deutsche Boerse Xetra och Borsa Italiana.

Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETF genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel Nordnet, SAVR, DEGIRO och Avanza.

Börsnoteringar

Börs	Valuta	Kortnamn
Borsa Italiana	EUR	ASLU
XETRA	USD	ASLU
XETRA	EUR	ASLT

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Anslut dig till kvantrevolutionen med Lunates nya ETF på Xetra

Publicerad

14 timmar sedan

den

28 april, 2026

Redaktionen

Kvantdatorteknik transformerar alla sorters industrier från hälso- och sjukvård till cybersäkerhet, och Boreas kliver fram som en nyckelspelare. Lunate Capitals Boreas Solactive Quantum Computing UCITS ETF på Xetra erbjuder investerare en diversifierad exponering mot ledande globala kvantteknologibolag.

Kvantdatorteknik håller snabbt på att gå från forskningslabb till verkliga tillämpningar – och investerare får nu ett nytt sätt att ta del av utvecklingen. Med lanseringen av Boreas Solactive Quantum Computing UCITS ETF (QQCC) på Xetra öppnas dörren till ett av de mest transformativa teknikområdena i modern tid.

En ny era inom datorkraft

Till skillnad från traditionella datorer, som bearbetar information steg för steg, kan kvantdatorer analysera många möjliga lösningar samtidigt. Resultatet är en exponentiell ökning i beräkningskraft – med potential att lösa problem som idag är praktiskt taget omöjliga.

Enligt uppskattningar kan kvantteknologi skapa upp till 2 biljoner (eng: trillions) dollar i ekonomiskt värde fram till 2035.

Tekniken väntas få särskilt stor påverkan inom områden som:

• Läkemedelsutveckling – snabbare simulering av proteinveckning och sjukdomar

• Materialvetenskap – utveckling av starkare och lättare material

• Finans – förbättrad riskhantering och portföljoptimering

Stark tillväxt och ökade investeringar

Kvantindustrin befinner sig i ett tydligt tillväxtskede. Under 2024 investerades omkring 2 miljarder dollar i kvantstartups globalt, samtidigt som statliga satsningar överstiger 50 miljarder dollar totalt. Både USA och Kina har uttryckt kvantmekanik som särskilt viktigt och prioriterat område och stora satsningar har tillkännagivits under 2025 och 2026.

Samtidigt växer marknaden snabbt, med ökande patentaktivitet och stora samarbeten mellan teknikbolag och investerare. Regionen Mellanöstern, särskilt UAE och Saudiarabien, positionerar sig också som en viktig hub för kvantutveckling.

ETF ger bred exponering mot kvanttemat

Den nya ETF:en, Boreas Solactive Quantum Computing UCITS ETF (QQCC), är utformad för att ge investerare diversifierad exponering mot cirka 25 ledande bolag inom kvantteknologi.

Indexet omfattar hela värdekedjan, inklusive:

• Hårdvara för kvantdatorer

• Mjukvara och algoritmer

• Kvantkommunikation och cybersäkerhet

Portföljen kombinerar globala teknikledare med mycket forskning och utveckling inom kvantum såsom IBM och Google, med mer nischade, snabbväxande bolag som IonQ, Rigetti och D-Wave.

Skillnader mot andra liknande ETFer

I enlighet med Boreas devis om att vara ”true to theme” i sin ETF-design fokuserar fonden på att enbart inkludera de bolag som är absolut mest relevanta mot utvecklingen av framförallt Quantum Computing hårdvara så som mikrochip (QPU’s). Portföljen är framtagen med hjälp av Solactives natural language processing verktyg ARTIS och vikterna i portföljen är enligt varje bolags relevans mot temat.

Fonden rebalanseras två gånger om året vilket möjliggör att snabbt snappa upp nykomlingar och bolag som snabbt gör framsteg inom temat. Med hjälp av ARTIS-verktyget kan på så sätt relevanta bolag snabbt få ökad vikt och mindre framgångsrika bolag få mindre.

Andra liknande fonder fokuserar ofta på bolag med mest patent inom kvantum. Detta kan leda till att bolag som främst använder kvantum hamnar i de portföljerna, medans Boreas fond fokuserar på de bolag som leder utvecklingen inom kvantumteknologin. Många av bolagen konkurrerar om att bli ”nästa NVIDIA” och leda en ny generations mikrochip.

Med en total kostnad (TER) på 0,49 % erbjuder fonden ett konkurrenskraftigt sätt att få exponering mot ett komplext och snabbt utvecklande tema.

Ett tema för långsiktiga investerare

Kvantteknologi ses i allt större utsträckning som en strategisk nyckelindustri, inte minst i takt med diskussionen om “Q-Day” – den punkt då kvantdatorer kan bryta dagens krypteringssystem.

För investerare innebär detta både risker och möjligheter. Som tematisk investering är ETFen särskilt lämpad som ett komplement – en så kallad satellitallokering – till bredare aktieportföljer. Trots att forskningen inom kvantdatorer har pågått i över 45 år är det en teknologi i tidigt skede där en klar vinnare ännu inte korats. Det gör temat volatilt och extra känsligt för positiva såväl som negativa nyheter.

Slutsats

Med lanseringen på Xetra blir kvantinvesteringar nu mer tillgängliga för europeiska investerare. För den som vill positionera sig inför nästa stora teknologiska skifte erbjuder Boreas kvant-ETF en enkel väg in i ett område som kan definiera framtidens ekonomi.

Namn: Boreas Solactive Quantum Computing UCITS ETF USD (Acc)

Ticker: QQCC

Handelsplats: Xetra

Handla QQCC ETF

Boreas Solactive Quantum Computing UCITS ETF USD (Acc) (QQCC ETF) är en europeisk börshandlad fond. Denna fond handlas på flera olika börser, till exempel Deutsche Boerse Xetra.

Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETF genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel Nordnet, SAVR, DEGIRO och Avanza.

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