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Gold in Focus as Swiss Gold Referendum Looms
ETFS Multi-Asset Weekly Gold in Focus as Swiss Gold Referendum Looms
Highlights
- Natural gas surges on colder weather.
- Swiss gold referendum key for CHF strength.
- Gold miners rally as gold rebounds.
Cyclical assets broadly performed well last week as central banks reiterated economic support. But so did gold and it could continue, despite the strength in the US dollar, in a sign that its price has bottomed after weeks of de-rating, as the Swiss gold referendum looms. Sentiment was buoyed last week with the European Central Bank pledging once again “to do whatever it takes” to ward off deflation. The ECB commenced purchases of asset-backed securities, expanding its QE programme, while the People’s Bank of China cut interest rates to spur flagging demand.
Commodities
Natural gas surges on colder weather. Natural gas rebounded 13.7% as a cold snap ate into gas storage levels. Natural gas transportation is highly constrained during times of peak demand in New York and New England and last week’s cold weather led to a strong rally in the US North East region in particular. Gold and silver gained 2.4% and 2.9% last week, respectively. With both metals having fallen close to their marginal cost of production, it is increasingly likely that production will be cut, helping to tighten the supply of the metals. Soybeans and corn fell 3.2% each as the rising probability of an El Niño weather event bodes well for growing conditions for the crops in South America over the coming months. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology increased the odd of an El Niño to 70% from 50% previously. Nickel bounced up 6.2% as Indonesia reaffirmed its ore export ban.
Equities
Gold miners rally as gold rebounds. DAXglobal® Gold Miners Index continued its recovery from record lows this week, rallying 8.9%, tracking the performance of bullion, albeit in a more volatile manner. Miners initially outperformed gold this year, but in recent months gains have been erased following the tumble in the spot price of gold to the 1,200 $/oz level, slashing the profit margins for high cost producers. Meanwhile, in Europe stocks advanced after Mario Draghi’s dovish comments surrounding the ECB’s asset purchase program which suggested measures will extend to sovereign bond buying if inflation continues to remain depressed and well below the medium term target of below but near to 2%.The DAX 30 and FTSE MIB rose 2.55% and 2.27% respectively, as investors anticipate stimulus measures to be extended.
Currencies
Swiss gold referendum key for CHF strength. We expect the Swiss franc to lift and test the SNB commitment to maintaining its currency policy floor against the Euro if the ‘Save Our Swiss Gold’ referendum is passed. A ‘yes’ vote for the referendum would mean that the CHF would have a stronger gold backing, in turn increasing its attractiveness for investors looking for hard asset exposure in an uncertain period for European economies. While recent polls have indicated that an affirmative response from voters is waning, as the central back campaign against the proposition, a large proportion undecided voters will be the likely key for victory for either side. Nevertheless, the market does not appear to have priced in the chance of the referendum being passed and we expect the risks for the Swiss Franc (and gold) are skewed to the upside.
Important Information
This communication has been issued and approved for the purpose of section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (”FCA”).
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• The SEC has just approved the spot Ethereum ETFs in the US – we expect approximately 1.65 bn USD potential net inflows into US Ethereum ETFs 3 months after trading launch
• If we assumed the historical ”performance multiplier” of 6.15 to Ethereum flows to be true, then a ~15% increase in global Ethereum ETF AuM would be associated with ~92% performance
• The approval marks a significant shift in sentiment within the SEC and among US regulators in general but US investors still received inferior investment vehicles compared to European vehicles
6.5 years
The SEC has just approved spot Ethereum ETFs for trading in the US.
Although the exact date of trading launch is unknown and could take a few months, this approval marks a significant shift in sentiment within the SEC and US regulators in general.
The Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE) was launched on 14 December 2017. It was the first investment vehicle that allowed professional investors to gain exposure to the second largest cryptoasset – Ethereum.
Nearly 6.5 years later, US investors finally have a more efficient investment vehicle to participate in Ethereum’s performance.
US ETF issuers made last-minute adjustments to their 19b-4 filings to meet the final deadline for the SEC’s decision on VanEck’s spot Ethereum ETF application, which was due on 23 May.
Bloomberg ETF analysts had previously commented that approval could come as early as Wednesday this week, beating consensus expectations for a later approval date. Other applicants included the same companies that applied for a spot bitcoin ETF previously, such as iShares and Fidelity.
The sudden increase in approval odds caught many by surprise, as Bloomberg ETF analysts unexpectedly raised their approval odds from 25% to 75% after the SEC asked exchanges to expedite their 19b-4 filings. Meanwhile, the odds of approval by the end of May on popular betting sites also jumped to over 50%, up from 10% just a few days earlier.
This unexpected rise in approval odds also surprised Ethereum futures short sellers, causing short liquidations in Ethereum futures contracts to surge to their highest level since March.
This caused the price of Ethereum to jump more than 10% in a matter of hours,
reversing much of its underperformance against bitcoin this year.
So, the market had already started to anticipate a potential approval.
But what’s next?
How many fund flows should we expect?
Many market observers have tried to guide down expectations for an Ethereum ETF trading launch.
The reason is that the Ethereum spot ETF approval is coming after a bonanza in fund flows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs which is why Bloomberg ETF analysts expect only around 10%-15% of Bitcoin ETF flows to flow into Ethereum ETFs.
At the time of writing, US spot Bitcoin ETFs have already seen cumulative net fund inflows in the amount of +13.2 bn USD since trading launch on the 11th of January 2024.
12.5% of that amount would imply approximately 1.65 bn USD potential net inflows into US Ethereum ETFs.
This amount would currently be equivalent to ~15% of current global Ethereum ETP assets-under-management (AuM) or around 0.7% of Ethereum’s realized cap, i.e. the amount invested on-chain.
What could be the price effect of this approval?
Nonetheless, this amount of capital could potentially still have a very significant impact on Ethereum’s performance going forward.
The reason is that Ethereum’s performance has shown a significantly higher sensitivity to global ETP flows than Bitcoin in the past.
While Bitcoin’s performance sensitivity to global ETP flows was around ~1.0, Ethereum’s performance has shown an average sensitivity of around 6.15 to global ETP flows in the past.
In other words, an increase of global ETH ETP AuM by 1% per week was associated with an average ETH/USD performance of 6.15% per week.
Now, if we assumed the abovementioned ”multiplier” of 6.15 to be true, then a ~15% increase in global Ethereum ETF AuM would be associated with ~92% performance!
That being said, the sensitivity of Ethereum’s performance to weekly ETP flows can vary significantly over time and has been around ~10.5 more recently.
As a caveat, keep in mind that correlation does not imply causation and that higher net inflows could possibly not cause increases in price.
More specifically, we estimate that global Ethereum ETP flows could only explain around 19.6% in the variation of Ethereum over the past 6 months. So, other factors such as macro or coin-specific factors have played a larger role.
What’s special about these Ethereum ETFs?
The approval marks a significant shift in sentiment within the SEC and US regulators more general. The recent passing of the “crypto bill” in the US senate has demonstrated that there is bipartisan consensus on the importance of cryptoassets for the United States.
The fact that the Trump campaign has recently started accepting crypto donations for campaign finance speaks volumes in this regard as Trump had personally shown a rather anti-crypto stance in the past.
Thus, viewed more broadly within the context of recent domestic political developments in the US, this approval could be evidence of a more mainstream acceptance of cryptoassets as a legitimate asset class.
However, US investors still receive a suboptimal investment vehicle for Ethereum:
The creation-redemption mechanism is still not done in kind and staking has not been allowed within the filings. Thus, US investors won’t be able to fully capture Ethereum’s total return profile via staking returns that currently amount to around 3.2% p.a.
European investors are once again better served with products that allow investors to participate in these total returns such as the ETC Group Ethereum Staking ETP.
Bottom Line
• The SEC has just approved the spot Ethereum ETFs in the US – we expect approximately 1.65 bn USD potential net inflows into US Ethereum ETFs 3 months after trading launch
• If we assumed the historical ”performance multiplier” of 6.15 to Ethereum flows to be true, then a ~15% increase in global Ethereum ETF AuM would be associated with ~92% performance
• The approval marks a significant shift in sentiment within the SEC and among US regulators in general but US investors still received inferior investment vehicles compared to European vehicles
This is not investment advice. Capital at risk. Read the full disclaimer
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