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Fed on hold in September as US non-farm payrolls disappoint

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The Fed has another excuse to hold off on a September rate hike. Fed on hold in September as US non-farm payrolls disappoint. Although Chair Yellen said that the case for a rate hike has strengthened in recent months at the Jackson Hole Symposium, she indicated that the decision will be heavily data dependent. A string of worse-than-expected data since that announcement – ISM manufacturing, non-farm payrolls and auto-sales – gives the Fed reason to maintain their dovish stance for now.

The Fed has another excuse to hold off on a September rate hike. Fed on hold in September as US non-farm payrolls disappoint. Although Chair Yellen said that the case for a rate hike has strengthened in recent months at the Jackson Hole Symposium, she indicated that the decision will be heavily data dependent. A string of worse-than-expected data since that announcement – ISM manufacturing, non-farm payrolls and auto-sales – gives the Fed reason to maintain their dovish stance for now.

While the Fed realises that it can’t hang too much on single data points, the central bank is very cautious about undoing the hard work in getting the US economy into a sustainable recovery that will support jobs growth.

We still believe that the Fed will raise rates this year, but that is more likely in December than in September now. The market’s expectation for a rate increase this month also fell on the release of the payrolls data (see chart). While headline CPI inflation remains low at 0.8%, core inflation at 2.2% is around the Fed’s target level. With lower energy and food prices from a year ago being transitory, the headline rate is likely to catch up to core soon. We believe that there are enough inflationary pressures for the Fed to act this year.

There were only 151,000 jobs added in August compared to a consensus estimate of 180,000. Hourly earnings only rose 0.1% mom, against a consensus of 0.2%. The unemployment rate remained flat at 4.9% while the market expected a drop to 4.8%. The numbers were affected by statistical quirks that are not fully remedied by the adjustments applied by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Namely there was an extra working day this August compared to last August and the survey took place before the 15th of the month (which often leads to companies that pay employees on the 15th to incorrectly miss people off the payroll when filling in the survey). The weak wage data can therefore be discounted due to the quirks. Unemployment failed to decline as a result of higher labour market participation. The latter we view as a positive sign of economic strength. We believe that the September payrolls report will reverse the weakness from August. However, there are only three more payroll reports to be released before December and so we will need to see a strengthening in the data soon if the Fed is to act this year.

Nitesh Shah, Research Analyst at ETF Securities

Nitesh is a Commodities Strategist at ETF Securities. Nitesh has 13 years of experience as an economist and strategist, covering a wide range of markets and asset classes. Prior to joining ETF Securities, Nitesh was an economist covering the European structured finance markets at Moody’s Investors Service and was a member of Moody’s global macroeconomics team. Before that he was an economist at the Pension Protection Fund and an equity strategist at Decision Economics. He started his career at HSBC Investment Bank. Nitesh holds a Bachelor of Science in Economics from the London School of Economics and a Master of Arts in International Economics and Finance from Brandeis University (USA).

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Are we about to enter “Hyperbitcoinization”?

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• The data generally suggest that both the US and Europe may be at the cusp of mass retail adoption – a situation often referred to as “Hyperbitcoinization” in the context of Bitcoin.

• Global crypto asset adoption rates are significantly higher than previously estimated.

• The data generally suggest that both the US and Europe may be at the cusp of mass retail adoption – a situation often referred to as “Hyperbitcoinization” in the context of Bitcoin.

• Chances are that the growth of adoption will surprise to the upside due to the fact that we are most likely at the inflection point from ”Early Adopters” to ”Early Majority”.

Trump recently made a public statement implying that 50 million Americans already held ”crypto”. The most recent surveys among US consumers seem to support this number.

It is no surprise that cryptoassets have become a major topic during the US presidential election as the parties have become increasingly aware that cryptoasset users could play a significant role at the ballot.

Both Trump and Robert Kennedy Jr. are scheduled to deliver a pro-Bitcoin speech at the upcoming Bitcoin conference in Nashville over the weekend.

It seems as if cryptoasset users are not a small minority anymore that can be ignored.

Here are some recent US bitcoin and crypto adoption surveys for comparison (% of total population in brackets):

• Security.org: 93 mn (28%)
• Unchained: 86 mn (26%)
• Statista: 53.6 mn (16%)
• Morning Consult: 44.2 mn (13%)
• Finder: 38.4 mn (11%)

In general, cryptoasset adoption has been on the rise globally.

A recent global survey among institutional investors conducted by Fidelity even implies that 51% of surveyed institutional investors have already invested into cryptoassets such as Bitcoin.

Another recent consumer survey by Statista implies that approximately every 5th person (21%) worldwide has already invested into cryptoassets.

However, it’s important to highlight that among the top 10 regions with the highest adoption rates, 8 regions are developing countries.

So, cryptoasset adoption rates are even significantly higher among developing countries than in developed countries that often suffer from chronically high inflation rates and weak domestic currencies.

That being said, the data generally suggest that both the US and Europe may be at the cusp of mass retail adoption – a situation often referred to as “Hyperbitcoinization” in the context of Bitcoin.

The reason is that technological adoption in general tends to accelerate at the threshold from the so-called “early adopters” to the “early majority” which is around 16% adoption rate based on the model of technological adoption famously put forth by Rogers (1962).

Global adoption rates are already at 21% while adoption rates in the US and Europe are at around 16% and 14%, respectively. So, there is a strong case for an acceleration of adoption rates in these regions and globally over the coming years.

Recent political developments in the US also imply that Bitcoin and cryptoassets are gradually becoming mainstream.

Trump has recently endorsed domestic Bitcoin mining in the US and both Democrats and Republicans have started accepting crypto payments for campaign financing.

The big success of the spot Bitcoin ETFs this year and the fact that additional types of spot crypto ETFs are being launched marks a significant shift in sentiment among US regulators in this regard.

In short, chances are that the growth of adoption will surprise to the upside due to the fact that we are most-likely at the inflection point from ”Early Adopters” to ”Early Majority”.

Bottom Line

• Global crypto asset adoption rates are significantly higher than previously estimated.

• The data generally suggest that both the US and Europe may be at the cusp of mass retail adoption – a situation often referred to as “Hyperbitcoinization” in the context of Bitcoin.

• Chances are that the growth of adoption will surprise to the upside due to the fact that we are most likely at the inflection point from ”Early Adopters” to ”Early Majority”.

To read more about suitable investment solutions by ETC Group, please click the button below:

This is not investment advice. Capital at risk. Read the full disclaimer

© ETC Group 2019-2024 | All rights reserved

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Investera i Optimism med en börshandlad produkt

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I denna text tittar vi närmare på olika sätt att investera i Optimism med en börshandlad produkt Precis som för många andra kryptovalutor och tokens finns det flera olika börshandlade produkter som spårar Optimism. Vi har identifierar en sådan produkter.

I denna text tittar vi närmare på olika sätt att investera i Optimism med en börshandlad produkt Precis som för många andra kryptovalutor och tokens finns det flera olika börshandlade produkter som spårar Optimism. Vi har identifierar en sådan produkt.

De olika produkterna skiljer sig en del åt, en del av emittenterna arbetar med så kallad staking, vilket gör att förvaltningsavgiften kan pressas ned. Det är emellertid inte så att alla dessa börshandlade produkter är identiska varför det är viktigt att läsa på.

Investera i Optimism med en börshandlad produkt

Precis som för många andra kryptovalutor och tokens finns det flera olika börshandlade produkter som spårar Optimism.

För ytterligare information om respektive ETP klicka på kortnamnet i tabellen nedan.

NamnKortnamnValutaStakingUtlåningISINAvgift %
21Shares Optimism ETPAOPTUSDNejNejCH13048674552,50%

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JPGH ETF investerar i amerikanska tillväxtaktier

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JPMorgan Active US Growth UCITS ETF EUR Hedged (acc) (JPGH ETF) med ISIN IE000UZZ5SU2, är en aktivt förvaltad ETF. Den börshandlade fonden investerar i amerikanska tillväxtaktier och strävar efter att generera en högre långsiktig avkastning än Russell 1000 Growth-index. Aktierna som ingår filtreras enligt ESG-kriterier (miljö, social och bolagsstyrning). Valutasäkrad till euro (EUR).

JPMorgan Active US Growth UCITS ETF EUR Hedged (acc) (JPGH ETF) med ISIN IE000UZZ5SU2, är en aktivt förvaltad ETF. Den börshandlade fonden investerar i amerikanska tillväxtaktier och strävar efter att generera en högre långsiktig avkastning än Russell 1000 Growth-index. Aktierna som ingår filtreras enligt ESG-kriterier (miljö, social och bolagsstyrning). Valutasäkrad till euro (EUR).

Den börshandlade fondens TER (total cost ratio) uppgår till 0,49 % p.a. JPMorgan Active US Growth UCITS ETF EUR Hedged (acc) är den enda ETF som följer JPMorgan Active US Growth (EUR Hedged)-index. Denna ETF replikerar det underliggande indexets prestanda genom full replikering (köper alla indexbeståndsdelar). Utdelningarna i ETFen ackumuleras och återinvesteras.

JPMorgan Active US Growth UCITS ETF EUR Hedged (acc) är en mycket liten ETF med tillgångar på 2 miljoner euro under förvaltning. ETF lanserades den 18 januari 2024 och har sin hemvist i Irland.

Möjlighet

Erfaret portföljförvaltningsteam med i genomsnitt 30 års branscherfarenhet

Utnyttja de bästa idéerna från JPMorgans dedikerade tillväxtanalysteam, förutom grundläggande insikter från över 20 amerikanska aktiekarriäranalytiker, alla med i genomsnitt 20+ års branscherfarenhet

Portfölj

Kombinerar två av JPMorgans beprövade aktiva amerikanska aktiestrategier (tillväxt med stora bolag och tillväxtfördelar), som kombineras för att leverera en diversifierad portfölj av amerikanska tillväxtaktier med underskattad tillväxtpotential över sektorer.

Resultat

Aktivt förvaltad investeringsstrategi som strävar efter att leverera en stilren tillväxtaktieportfölj med en viss grad av marknadskapitalflexibilitet

Handla JPGH ETF

JPMorgan Active US Growth UCITS ETF EUR Hedged (acc) (JPGH ETF) är en europeisk börshandlad fond. Denna fond handlas på flera olika börser, till exempel Deutsche Boerse Xetra och Borsa Italiana.

Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETF genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel DEGIRONordnet, Aktieinvest och Avanza.

Börsnoteringar

BörsValutaKortnamn
Borsa ItalianaEURJGEH
SIX Swiss ExchangeEURJGEH
XETRAEURJPGH

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MICROSOFT CORPUS5949181045United States9.89%
NVIDIA CORPUS67066G1040United States7.97%
AMAZON.COM INCUS0231351067United States6.55%
META PLATFORMS INC-CLASS AUS30303M1027United States6.06%
APPLE INCUS0378331005United States4.75%
ELI LILLY & COUS5324571083United States3.85%
ALPHABET INC-CL CUS02079K1079United States3.45%
MASTERCARD INC – AUS57636Q1040United States2.80%
Cash and Cash EquivalentUnited States2.73%
BROADCOM INCUS11135F1012United States2.53%

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