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Commodity Optimism Rises with Reflation

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8 år sedan

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4 februari, 2018

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Investment Insights January 2018 – Commodity Optimism Rises with Reflation

Summary

Global manufacturing may push commodity demand higher.
Investors yet to regain previous positions in commodity funds.
Commodities outperform in high growth and inflation periods.

Growth and manufacturing activity points to higher commodity demand

The global economy is in full throttle with synchronized growth among both developed and emerging economies. Global growth as measured by gross domestic product is expected to rise to 3.9% this year according to the International Monetary Fund. Further signs of economic reflation stem from the expansionary levels in global manufacturing and industrial activity. Recent global manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) levels are at a four year high while US manufacturing PMI ending 2017 at 59.7 after hitting a 13 year high in September 2017. Increased manufacturing activity may further support commodities as demand for raw materials and trade persists against higher industrial and economic activity.

Inflation is also on the rise as evidenced by increasing inflation expectations, a tightening labor market, and a weaker US dollar. Commodities, which historically hedge inflation, may further rise as inflationary pressures in the latter stages of the economic cycle.

Investor flows may kick commodities into high gear

On January 20th, 2016 the Bloomberg Commodity Index hit an all-time low falling 48% since December 31st, 2012 . Over this period commodity funds experienced $24.5 billion in net outflows.

As commodity fundamentals improved from a global glut, the index rebounded 24% from this bottom (see Exhibit 2). Investor flows, however, recouped only half of their previous holdings with net inflows of $14 billion since January 21st, 2016. As the commodity outlook improves, a return of investor interest may further support commodity prices as inflows rise to rebuild portfolio positions.

Conducive backdrop for outperformance

Periods of rising growth and high inflation have historically benefited commodities over stocks, bonds, and cash (See Exhibit 3). This outperformance is indicative of rising commodity demand at late stages of the economic cycle. The current backdrop of synchronized growth and rising inflationary pressures mirrors this cyclical stage and may see commodity returns outperform further.

Source: Bloomberg, ETF Securities. Table data from 01/30/76 to 12/31/17. Commodities = S&P GSCI TR Index, Global equities = MSCI World TR Index, Bonds= Barclays US Aggregate TR Index, Cash = 3 month US Treasury bill. High/low inflation = top/bottom 20% of months in US headline consumer price index (CPI), Slowing/rising growth = top/bottom 20% of months in US PMI.

Important Risks

The statements and opinions expressed are those of the author and are as of the date of this report. All information is historical and not indicative of future results and subject to change. Reader should not assume that an investment in any securities and/or precious metals mentioned was or would be profitable in the future. This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

The Bloomberg Commodity Index is a broadly diversified commodity price index distributed by Bloomberg Indexes. The S&P GSCI Index provides investors with a reliable and publicly available benchmark for investment performance in the commodity markets. The ISM Purchasing Manufacturing PMI Index (PMI) is an indicator of the economic health of the manufacturing sector. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure that examines the weighted average of prices of a basket of consumer goods and services; headline includes all categories while core excludes food and energy. The MSCI World Index is a free-float weighted equity index developed to track developed world markets, and does not include emerging markets. The Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index (Barclays Agg) is a broad-based flagship benchmark that measures the investment grade, US dollar-denominated, fixed-rate taxable bond market. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the total value of goods produced and services provided in a country during one year.

Diversification does not eliminate the risk of experiencing investment losses.

Maxwell Gold is a registered representative of ALPS Distributors, Inc.

Liknande ämnen:AGG ETF Securities Maxwell Gold

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En äventyrlig idé för småbolagsinvesterare

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En ETF som gör könsdiversitet till en vinnande investering

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20 timmar sedan

den

12 juni, 2026

Redaktionen

iShares Space Technologies UCITS ETF

Ticker: STAR, ST4R (Kortnamn kan variera beroende på lokala noteringar)

TER: 0,50 %

ISIN: IE000A9G9R73

Jämförelseindex: STOXX Global Space Satellites and Drones Index

Rymdindustrin befinner sig i en brytpunkt, då tillgången till rymdindustrin skiftar från rent statligt ledda program till en bredare blandning av myndigheter och välkapitaliserade offentliga och privata aktörer.

iShares Space Technologies UCITS ETF (ST4R) fångar hela värdekedjan i denna expanderande rymdekonomi, inklusive snabbare börsintroduktioner, från uppskjutningsleverantörer och återanvändbara tekniker som sänker kostnaden för tillgång till omloppsbana, till satellitoperatörer och de efterföljande tillämpningar som är beroende av rymdbaserad infrastruktur.

Varför ST4R?

Ren tematisk exponering

ST4R investerar i företag som genererar minst 25 % av intäkterna från rymd-, drönar- eller satellitverksamhet, vilket säkerställer en tydlig tematisk anpassning*.

Positionera investeringar i centrum för Artemis-erans ekosystem

ST4R fångar upp företag som drar nytta av den expanderande rymdekonomin, understödd av statliga program, försvarsutgifter och accelererande privata investeringar*.

Snabbspår för ledare

Indexet inkluderar ett snabbspår för börsintroduktion, vilket gör det möjligt att lägga till kvalificerade företag genom ad hoc- eller extraordinära ombalanseringar efter notering.

Handla ST4R ETF

iShares Space Technologies UCITS ETF är en europeisk börshandlad fond. Denna fond handlas på flera olika börser, till exempel Deutsche Boerse Xetra.

Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETF genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel Nordnet, SAVR, DEGIRO och Avanza.

HÄMTA FONDINFORMATION >

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den

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Redaktionen

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(i) investera i en portfölj av aktier som huvudsakligen består av företag som har sitt säte i, eller bedriver huvuddelen av sin ekonomiska verksamhet i, USA, och
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Den börshandlade fondens totala kostnadskvot (TER) uppgår till 0,35 % per år. Utdelningarna i ETFen delas ut till andelsägarna månadsvis.

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Handla JIPD ETF

JPM US Equity Premium Income Active UCITS ETF EUR Dist (JIPD ETF) är en europeisk börshandlad fond. Denna fond handlas på flera olika börser, till exempel Deutsche Boerse Xetra.

Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETF genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel Nordnet, SAVR, DEGIRO och Avanza.

Börsnoteringar

Börs	Valuta	Kortnamn
Xetra	EUR	JIPD
Borsa Italiana S.P.A.	EUR	JIPD

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Quantum computers can’t break bitcoin. Yet.

Publicerad

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den

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21Shares have published a new report examining what the quantum threat actually looks like for digital assets, including the timeline, the potential exposure, the prep required, and what this all might mean for asset allocators.

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The timeline shifted in March. On March 31, Google’s quantum team, alongside researchers from the Ethereum Foundation and Stanford, published findings showing the computing power needed to break this encryption is around 20x lower than the field previously believed.

You can’t prepare adequately for a quantum break if you determine that one is six months or a year ahead. You have to act before there’s a real perceived risk – but by definition that means sounding the alarm ’too early’.

The good news is that network preparation is further along than most investors realize. Bitcoin took its first step in Feb 2026 with the merger of BIP-360, a quantum-resistant address proposal. Ethereum has working code and ten independent teams building toward network migration. Solana has a path most observers have missed entirely.

The window is narrowing, but it hasn’t closed. Download full report

Follow for more quantum content.

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The information provided does not constitute a prospectus or other offering material and does not contain or constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy securities in any jurisdiction. Some of the information published herein may contain forward-looking statements. Readers are cautioned that any such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks and uncertainties and that actual results may differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements as a result of various factors. The information contained herein may not be considered as economic, legal, tax or other advice and users are cautioned to base investment decisions or other decisions solely on the content hereof.

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