Commodity ETP Weekly – Commodities end volatile week only slightly down
Inflows into oil ETPs reach highest level since March 2015 as investors bet on unsustainably low prices.
Physical gold receives highest inflows since August 2015 as investors hedge against market malaise.
Industrial metal basket ETPs see highest outflows since July 2015.
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Highlights
After a violent crash in cyclical commodities and other risk assets, prices started to recover in the second half of the week.
In contrast to the futures market, ETP investors have been contrarian and have built long positions, particularly in oil.
Market malaise has maintained strong interest in gold as a haven asset.
Inflows into oil ETPs reach highest level since March 2015 as investors bet on unsustainably low prices. By Wednesday last week, WTI and Brent were down 28.3% and 25.2% YTD respectively. Such low prices were clearly unsustainable and investors bought US$97.0mn of long oil ETPs and divested US$26.6mn of short oil ETPs to take advantage of a rebound. On Thursday WTI and Brent rebounded 11% and 5%, respectively. One of the catalysts behind the sharp decline in oil prices was news that sanctions on Iran will be lifted, paving the way for Iran to increase its oil exports. Unfortunately Iran has been guiding the market to think that it can raise exports by 1.1mn barrels, whereas in reality, we believe at most it will increase exports by 300,00o barrels. Even factoring in a generous rise in Iranian oil, the market would be in a supply deficit at end-2016 if demand increases to 96.71 mb/d by Q4 2016 from 95.28mb/d in Q4 2015, as the IEA predicts. We believe prices will end the year between the marginal cost of $40 and the fiscal break even cost $70 per barrel.
Physical gold receives highest inflows since August 2015 as investors hedge against market malaise. Gold has traditionally been the first port of call in times of market stress. While most people cannot understand why cyclical assets fell so hard so fast, many realised that gold performs well in times of panic and went long the yellow metal while waiting for an entry point back into other cyclicals. Gold rose 0.7% last week, 3.4% YTD. Inflows into physical gold ETPs rose to US$85.3mn.
Industrial metal basket ETPs see highest outflows since July 2015. Investor panic saw US$8.9mn redemptions from industrial metal baskets. That came even though most industrial metal prices were only marginally down by mid-week and ended the week higher after Chinese GDP data confirmed strong demand from the largest consumer of metals. Both long and short copper ETPs saw outflows of US$2.7mn and US$1.5mn respectively, highlighting polarised views on the metal. The International Copper Study Group forecasts a supply deficit of 0.5% this year, which will be the 6th consecutive year of a supply shortfall. We don’t think that the market can continue to ignore the increasing tightness in the metal and prices are likely to recover after having fallen 23.6% in the past year.
Key events to watch this week. The market will be keenly tuned into the Fed’s post-policy meeting statement and press conference to hear how the US central bank will react to the recent market volatility. The ECB has already hinted that it will offer more QE, but we expect the Fed to hold steady with its announced policy trajectory of continuing to increase rates to ward off inflationary pressures and keep a buoyant labour market in-check. Currently the market is only pricing in one rate increase this year, while the Fed has indicated it will move four times. We expect US dollar strength, which has been weighting on commodity market performance, to fall away when the market gets in line with Fed thinking. The BoJ and RBNZ will also host their policy meetings this week.
Video Presentation
Nitesh Shah, Research Analyst at ETF Securities provides an analysis of last week’s performance, flow and trading activity in commodity exchange traded products and a look at the week ahead.
For more information contact
ETF Securities Research team ETF Securities (UK) Limited T +44 (0) 207 448 4336 E info@etfsecurities.com
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Den totala kostnadskvoten uppgår till 0,70 % p.a. Fonden replikerar utvecklingen av det underliggande indexet syntetiskt med en swap. Xtrackers LPX MM Private Equity SwapUCITSETF 1C har tillgångar på 288 miljoner euro under förvaltning. DX2D ETF är äldre än 5 år och har sin hemvist i Luxemburg.
Investeringsstrategi
LPX Major Market®-index spårar de 25 globala mest likvida noterade private equity-bolagen som omfattas av LPX.
Indexbeskrivning
LPX Major Market® Index syftar till att spegla resultatet på följande marknad:
Noterade private equity-bolag noterade över hela världen
De 25 mest likvida börsnoterade private equity-bolagen
Halvårsvis indexöversyn, största komponenten är begränsad till 15 %
Handla DX2D ETF
Xtrackers LPX MM Private Equity SwapUCITSETF 1C (DX2D ETF) är en europeisk börshandlad fond. Denna fond handlas på Deutsche Boerse Xetra och London Stock Exchange.
Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETF genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel DEGIRO, Nordnetoch Avanza.
Den totala kostnadskvoten uppgår till 0,50 % p.a. Fonden replikerar resultatet för det underliggande indexet genom att köpa ett urval av de mest relevanta indexbeståndsdelarna (samplingsteknik). iShares J.P. Morgan USD EM Bond UCITSETF CHF (Acc) har tillgångar på 90 miljoner GBP under förvaltning. ETF:en är äldre än 3 år och har sin hemvist i Irland.
Fonden strävar efter att följa utvecklingen av ett index som består av obligationer denominerade i US-dollar från tillväxtmarknadsländer.
Investeringsstrategi
JP Morgan EMBI Global Core (CHF Hedged)-index följer amerikanska dollardenominerade statsobligationer och kvasi-statliga obligationer från tillväxtmarknadsländer. Valuta säkrad till schweiziska franc (CHF).
På den nordiska ETF-marknaden februari 2023 uppgick handeln till cirka 8,9 mdkr (9,9 mdkr i januari) varav cirka 8,5 mdkr omsattes i den svenska marknaden. Av den totala nordiska ETF-omsättningen var XACT:s marknadsandel cirka 98,4%. Av den totala börsomsättningen i Sverige i februari svarade ETF-handeln för cirka 2,01%.
Handeln med ETFer i februari 2023
Precis som vanligt dominerade XACT den nordiska ETF-marknaden under februari 2023. Det var även samma börshandlade fonder som vanligt som stod för handeln. Den mest omsatta börshandlade fonden var Xact Bear x 2 medan XACT OMXS30 ESG (UCITS ETF) var den näst mest handlade ETFen. Denna börshandlade fond brukar vara en av de mest omsatta men är sällan den mest handlade.
XACT Svenska Småbolag ETF återfinns på tredjeplats, en högre placering än denna börshandlade fond normalt brukar ha.
Efter detta ser vi hävstångsfonden Xact Bull x2. Xact Bull x 2 tillsammans med Xact Bear x 2 handlas frekvent, och på kort sikt, vanligt förekommande i till exempel daytrading. På femteplats hittar vi Xact Norden Högutdelande en ETF som brukar köpas av många utdelningsplacerare för att ägas för den utdelning som kommer varje kvartal. Denna fond brukar placera sig högre upp på listan.
Av de mest omsatta ETFerna på den nordiska ETF-marknaden februari 2023 var elva av de tretton mest handlade börshandlade fonder emitterade av XACT.
Statistik för den nordiska ETF-marknaden februari 2023