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Bearish bets on coffee hit record high

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rade Idea – Commodities - Bearish bets on coffee hit record high26th November 2015 Last week the BRL staged a 3% rally as the incumbent Brazilian President, Dilma Rousseff

Trade Idea – Commodities – Bearish bets on coffee hit record high
26th November 2015

Coffee prices to remain depressed

•         Last week the BRL staged a 3% rally as the incumbent Brazilian President, Dilma Rousseff, won a political victory aimed at narrowing the country’s growing budget deficit. The strengthening of the BRL sent the price of Arabica coffee soaring 8% from 23 month lows (see Figure 1, Source: Bloomberg) and partially reversed a downward trend that has plagued the soft commodity since the end of last year. Brazil is the largest global exporter of Arabica coffee and the recent weakening of its currency has, until September, significantly weighed on the coffee price[1]. In coming months, we expect support from favourable currency movements to fade and a strong coffee supply outlook for 2016/17 crop year to weigh on price, benefiting those investors with tactical short exposure to coffee.

Speculative coffee positioning reaches record low

•         According to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), short bets on coffee swelled to the highest level on record in the week to Nov 17 (see figure 2), reflecting the bearish sentiment that has dominated coffee trading until last week’s recovery. We believe that bearish sentiment will reassert and help to push coffee prices lower as soon as BRL strength abates. The Brazilian economy is currently under considerable duress as stagflation and political turmoil weigh on the nation’s prospects. Therefore, we believe that the optimism that has fuelled the recent BRL appreciation is fragile and will likely fade as the economy slips further into recession and political uncertainty persists.

Favourable supply outlook

•         The Brazilian harvest for 2015/16 is almost complete and despite the 2014 drought prompting forecasts of a large fall in production, output has only fallen 3% YoY (Source: United States Department of Agriculture). Looking ahead to next year, good rain in key producing regions is helping the flowering process of Brazilian coffee trees which should aid coffee cherry development and in turn increase the likelihood of a strong yield from the 2016/17 harvest.

•         Elsewhere, Columbia and Honduras have seen production grow 40% and 46% respectively over the past five years as tree renovation programmes, aimed at combatting coffee rust (disease that affects coffee plantations), pay considerable dividends (see Figure 3). Given that both are top five global exporters of coffee (third and fifth respectively) this trend will likely be another source of pressure on coffee prices in the near future.

Investors wishing to express the investment views outlined above may consider using the following ETF Securities ETPs:

Coffee
•         ETFS Coffee (COFF)
•         ETFS 2x Daily Long Coffee (LCFE)
•         ETFS 1x Daily Short Coffee (SCFE)
•         ETFS 3x Daily Long Coffee (3CFL)
•         ETFS 3x Daily Short Coffee (3CFS)
•         ETFS EUR Daily Hedged Coffee (ECOF)
•         Swiss Franc Daily Hedged Coffee (CCOF)

The complete ETF Securities product list can be found here.
[1] Brazilian coffee suppliers increase output as a weaker BRL means that their produce become cheaper on international US Dollar denominated markets.

Disclaimer Title Important Information

Disclaimer Text This communication has been issued and approved for the purpose of section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (“ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (the “FCA”). The information contained in this communication is for your general information only and is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investments may go down in value. This document is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares or securities in the United States or any province or territory thereof. Neither this document nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States. This communication may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information. Although ETFS UK endeavours to ensure the accuracy of the content in this communication, ETFS UK does not warrant or guarantee its accuracy or correctness. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this communication make no warranties or representation of any kind relating to such data. Where ETFS UK has expressed its own opinions related to product or market activity, these views may change. Neither ETFS UK, nor any affiliate, nor any of their respective, officers, directors, partners, or employees accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this publication or its contents. ETFS UK is required by the FCA to clarify that it is not acting for you in any way in relation to the investment or investment activity to which this communication relates. In particular, ETFS UK will not provide any investment services to you and or advise you on the merits of, or make any recommendation to you in relation to, the terms of any transaction. No representative of ETFS UK is authorised to behave in any way which would lead you to believe otherwise. ETFS UK is not, therefore, responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients and you should seek your own independent legal, investment and tax or other advice as you see fit. While this communication is made by ETFS UK, certain content has been produced and provided for ETFS UK by Roubini Global Economics, LLC (“RGE”). RGE is an independent, unaffiliated third party to ETFS UK. No forwarding, reprinting, republication or any other redistribution of this content is permissible without the express consent of RGE and ETFS UK. RGE and ETFS UK reserve the right to enforce their respective copyrights and pursue any such other action as they deem appropriate in respect of any such unauthorised use, republication or redistribution of this communication.

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AXA lanserar inflationslänkad obligations-ETF

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AXA IM Global Inflation-Linked Bond Opportunities UCITS ETF förvaltas aktivt och investerar minst 50 procent av sina tillgångar i inflationslänkade obligationer utfärdade av OECD-länder. Resten kan flexibelt investeras i andra OECD-obligationer för att hantera inflationsexponering. Investerare kan handla ETFen i euro eller amerikanska dollar.

AXA IM Global Inflation-Linked Bond Opportunities UCITS ETF förvaltas aktivt och investerar minst 50 procent av sina tillgångar i inflationslänkade obligationer utfärdade av OECD-länder. Resten kan flexibelt investeras i andra OECD-obligationer för att hantera inflationsexponering. Investerare kan handla ETFen i euro eller amerikanska dollar.

NamnISIN
Kortnamn
AvgiftUtdelnings-
policy
AXA IM Global Inflation-Linked Bond Opportunities UCITS ETF – USD AccumulationIE000J4FE268
ACPH (EUR)
ACPI (USD)
0,20%Ackumulerande

Produktutbudet inom Deutsche Börses ETF- och ETP-segment omfattar för närvarande totalt 2 479 ETFer, 202 ETCer och 261 ETNer. Med detta urval och en genomsnittlig månatlig handelsvolym på cirka 25 miljarder euro är Xetra den ledande handelsplatsen för ETFer och ETPer i Europa.

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Xtrackers är glada att kunna meddela att företaget från och med den 1 juli 2025 kommer att sänka den årliga totala kostnadskvoten (TER) på fyra av sina ETFer på dess kärnmarknader – två Xtrackers-obligations-ETFer och två Xtrackers-aktie-ETFer.

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Totalt påverkar förändringarna ETFer med en volym på över 20 miljarder euro¹.

Översikt över ETFer som gynnas av avgiftssänkningar

NamnISIN
Kortnamn

Share Class AUM¹
(EUR Mn.)
ETF AUM²
(EUR Mn.)
TER old p.a.TER new p.a.
Xtrackers S&P 500 UCITS ETF 4CIE000Z9SJA06
XDPU GY
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Xtrackers MSCI World UCITS ETF 1CIE00BJ0KDQ92
XDWD GY
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Xtrackers II Eurozone Government Bond UCITS ETF 1CLU0290355717
XGLE GY
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Xtrackers II EUR Corporate Bond UCITS ETF 1CLU0478205379
XBLC GY
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iShares US Equity Enhanced Active UCITS ETF USD (Acc) (USEE ETF) med ISIN IE0009VWHAE6, är en aktivt börshandlad fond.

Denna ETF investerar minst 70 procent i amerikanska aktier. Upp till 30 procent av tillgångarna kan placeras i private equity-instrument, värdepapper med fast ränta med investment grade-rating och penningmarknadsinstrument. Värdepapper väljs utifrån hållbarhetskriterier och en kvantitativ investeringsmodell.

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Denna ETF lanserades den 31 juli 2024 och har sin hemvist i Irland.

Investeringsmål

Fonden förvaltas aktivt och syftar till att uppnå långsiktig kapitaltillväxt på din investering, med hänvisning till MSCI USA Index (”Riktmärket”) för avkastning.

Handla USEE ETF

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Börsnoteringar

BörsValutaKortnamn
Euronext AmsterdamUSDUSEE
XETRAEURUSEE
London Stock ExchangeGBPUSEE

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