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Bearish bets on coffee hit record high

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8 år sedan

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rade Idea – Commodities - Bearish bets on coffee hit record high26th November 2015 Last week the BRL staged a 3% rally as the incumbent Brazilian President, Dilma Rousseff

Trade Idea – Commodities – Bearish bets on coffee hit record high
26th November 2015

Coffee prices to remain depressed

•         Last week the BRL staged a 3% rally as the incumbent Brazilian President, Dilma Rousseff, won a political victory aimed at narrowing the country’s growing budget deficit. The strengthening of the BRL sent the price of Arabica coffee soaring 8% from 23 month lows (see Figure 1, Source: Bloomberg) and partially reversed a downward trend that has plagued the soft commodity since the end of last year. Brazil is the largest global exporter of Arabica coffee and the recent weakening of its currency has, until September, significantly weighed on the coffee price[1]. In coming months, we expect support from favourable currency movements to fade and a strong coffee supply outlook for 2016/17 crop year to weigh on price, benefiting those investors with tactical short exposure to coffee.

Speculative coffee positioning reaches record low

•         According to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), short bets on coffee swelled to the highest level on record in the week to Nov 17 (see figure 2), reflecting the bearish sentiment that has dominated coffee trading until last week’s recovery. We believe that bearish sentiment will reassert and help to push coffee prices lower as soon as BRL strength abates. The Brazilian economy is currently under considerable duress as stagflation and political turmoil weigh on the nation’s prospects. Therefore, we believe that the optimism that has fuelled the recent BRL appreciation is fragile and will likely fade as the economy slips further into recession and political uncertainty persists.

Favourable supply outlook

•         The Brazilian harvest for 2015/16 is almost complete and despite the 2014 drought prompting forecasts of a large fall in production, output has only fallen 3% YoY (Source: United States Department of Agriculture). Looking ahead to next year, good rain in key producing regions is helping the flowering process of Brazilian coffee trees which should aid coffee cherry development and in turn increase the likelihood of a strong yield from the 2016/17 harvest.

•         Elsewhere, Columbia and Honduras have seen production grow 40% and 46% respectively over the past five years as tree renovation programmes, aimed at combatting coffee rust (disease that affects coffee plantations), pay considerable dividends (see Figure 3). Given that both are top five global exporters of coffee (third and fifth respectively) this trend will likely be another source of pressure on coffee prices in the near future.

Investors wishing to express the investment views outlined above may consider using the following ETF Securities ETPs:

Coffee
•         ETFS Coffee (COFF)
•         ETFS 2x Daily Long Coffee (LCFE)
•         ETFS 1x Daily Short Coffee (SCFE)
•         ETFS 3x Daily Long Coffee (3CFL)
•         ETFS 3x Daily Short Coffee (3CFS)
•         ETFS EUR Daily Hedged Coffee (ECOF)
•         Swiss Franc Daily Hedged Coffee (CCOF)

The complete ETF Securities product list can be found here.
[1] Brazilian coffee suppliers increase output as a weaker BRL means that their produce become cheaper on international US Dollar denominated markets.

Disclaimer Title Important Information

Disclaimer Text This communication has been issued and approved for the purpose of section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (“ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (the “FCA”). The information contained in this communication is for your general information only and is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investments may go down in value. This document is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares or securities in the United States or any province or territory thereof. Neither this document nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States. This communication may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information. Although ETFS UK endeavours to ensure the accuracy of the content in this communication, ETFS UK does not warrant or guarantee its accuracy or correctness. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this communication make no warranties or representation of any kind relating to such data. Where ETFS UK has expressed its own opinions related to product or market activity, these views may change. Neither ETFS UK, nor any affiliate, nor any of their respective, officers, directors, partners, or employees accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this publication or its contents. ETFS UK is required by the FCA to clarify that it is not acting for you in any way in relation to the investment or investment activity to which this communication relates. In particular, ETFS UK will not provide any investment services to you and or advise you on the merits of, or make any recommendation to you in relation to, the terms of any transaction. No representative of ETFS UK is authorised to behave in any way which would lead you to believe otherwise. ETFS UK is not, therefore, responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients and you should seek your own independent legal, investment and tax or other advice as you see fit. While this communication is made by ETFS UK, certain content has been produced and provided for ETFS UK by Roubini Global Economics, LLC (“RGE”). RGE is an independent, unaffiliated third party to ETFS UK. No forwarding, reprinting, republication or any other redistribution of this content is permissible without the express consent of RGE and ETFS UK. RGE and ETFS UK reserve the right to enforce their respective copyrights and pursue any such other action as they deem appropriate in respect of any such unauthorised use, republication or redistribution of this communication.

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The Bitcoin Halving and Beyond

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17 timmar sedan

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22 april, 2024

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Discover the latest insights on the Bitcoin halving event. Get our report to understand how the upcoming halving in April will impact the market, mining community, and the Bitcoin ecosystem.

Discover the latest insights on the Bitcoin halving event.

Get our report to understand how the upcoming halving in April will impact the market, mining community, and the Bitcoin ecosystem.

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What is the Bitcoin Halving?

The Bitcoin halving is a programmed event that reduces the reward for mining new coins by 50% approximately every four years, ultimately limiting the total supply of Bitcoin, akin to the scarcity of gold. This mechanism, embedded in Bitcoin’s protocol, aims to maintain its value proposition as a decentralized, fixed and immutable monetary system, although its performance is influenced by various factors that go beyond the halving.

How are miners impacted by the halving?

The Bitcoin halving impacts miners through reduced block rewards and shifts in profitability, influenced by Bitcoin’s price fluctuations. Miners may seek refinancing options to sustain operations, while decreased mining difficulty during downturns encourages cost-effectiveness and strengthens the network. As a result of this cycle’s unique demand, miners are selling less BTC on exchanges, indicating a more bullish stance amidst price surges and increased market accessibility driven by ETF inflows.

How can I get access via ETPs?

Easily access Bitcoin through Exchange-Traded Products (ETPs) listed on regulated exchanges. With these ETPs, you can trade Bitcoin via your regular brokerage accounts without the need for a digital wallet. Rest assured as you invest confidently, supported by transparent documentation and similar tax treatments as traditional ETPs or securities. Start trading Bitcoin ETPs today for a seamless investment experience that combines the convenience of traditional trading with the potential of cryptocurrency assets.

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Explore our meticulously crafted Dune Dashboards. Click below to uncover essential insights and track the countdown to the next halving event.

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Each week the 21Shares Research team will publish our data-driven insights into the crypto asset world through this newsletter. Please direct any comments, questions, and words of feedback to research@21shares.com

Disclaimer

The information provided does not constitute a prospectus or other offering material and does not contain or constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy securities in any jurisdiction. Some of the information published herein may contain forward-looking statements. Readers are cautioned that any such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks and uncertainties and that actual results may differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements as a result of various factors. The information contained herein may not be considered as economic, legal, tax or other advice and users are cautioned to base investment decisions or other decisions solely on the content hereof.

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GinsGlobal lyfter fram unik investeringsmetod i utvecklande tekniskt landskap

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18 timmar sedan

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22 april, 2024

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Anthony Ginsberg, VD för GinsGlobal Index Fund gick med Steve Darling från Proactive för att ge en översikt och uppdatering om Tech Megatrend ETF (T3KE). Ginsberg fördjupade sig i fondens globala räckvidd och strategiska tillvägagångssätt och lyfte fram dess utmärkande egenskaper, investeringsmetod i utvecklande tekniskt landskap och investeringsstrategi.

Anthony Ginsberg, VD för GinsGlobal Index Fund gick med Steve Darling från Proactive för att ge en översikt och uppdatering om Tech Megatrend ETF (T3KE). Ginsberg fördjupade sig i fondens globala räckvidd och strategiska tillvägagångssätt och lyfte fram dess utmärkande egenskaper, investeringsmetod i utvecklande tekniskt landskap och investeringsstrategi.

Tech Megatrend ETF utmärker sig för sitt globala fotavtryck och omfattar ett mångsidigt teknikriktmärke med cirka 60 % exponering mot den amerikanska marknaden och betydande allokeringar till Japan, Kina och Europa. Till skillnad från NASDAQ, som är starkt koncentrerad till ett fåtal stora teknikföretag, använder GinsGlobal Index Fund ett lika viktat tillvägagångssätt över sina 120 innehav, där inget enskilt innehav normalt överstiger 2 %.

Denna strategi gör det möjligt för fonden att fånga ett brett spektrum av teknikunderteman, inklusive digital underhållning, sociala medier, blockchain, elfordon, cybersäkerhet, artificiell intelligens och robotik. Ginsberg underströk fondens gynnsamma pris-till-vinst-förhållande, som för närvarande svävar runt 18 gånger, vilket tyder på att dess aktier inte är övervärderade jämfört med vissa marknadssegment. Han lyfte också fram potentialen för expansion bortom megabolagsbolag, understödd av positiva ekonomiska indikatorer i USA och möjligheten till lägre räntor, vilket kan båda gott för medel- och småbolagsaktier.

När det gäller förvärvstrender noterade Ginsberg det aktiva engagemanget från både stora och medelstora företag i fusioner och förvärv, med medelstora företag som representerar attraktiva mål som inte utlöser antitrustproblem.

Han diskuterade också de potentiella effekterna av en stark dollar och den amerikanska regeringens initiativ som syftar till att minska beroendet av utländsk teknologi, vilket kan stärka Nordamerikas konkurrenskraft och stimulera landningstrender. Sammanfattningsvis belyser Ginsbergs insikter det dynamiska landskapet inom tekniksektorn och den strategiska positioneringen av Tech Megatrend ETF inom den.

Eftersom fonden fortsätter att navigera i marknadstrender och dra nytta av nya möjligheter, kan investerare förvänta sig att dra nytta av dess diversifierade portfölj och framtidsinriktade investeringsstrategi. Håll ögonen öppna för ytterligare uppdateringar eftersom GinsGlobal Index Fund fortsätter att driva innovation och tillväxt inom teknikområdet.

Handla T3KE ETF

HANetf HAN-GINS Tech Megatrend Equal Weight UCITS ETF (T3KE ETF) är en europeisk börshandlad fond som handlas på bland annat London Stock Exchange och tyska Xetra.

Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETF genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel DEGIRO, Nordnet, Aktieinvest och Avanza.

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JPHG ETF ger exponering mot 400 japanska aktier, hedgat i brittiska pund

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19 timmar sedan

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22 april, 2024

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Amundi JPX Nikkei 400 UCITS ETF Daily Hedged GBP (JPHG ETF) med ISIN LU1681039308, försöker följa JPX-Nikkei 400 (GBP Hedged) index. JPX-Nikkei 400 (GBP Hedged)-index spårar 400 japanska aktier. Aktierna väljs i huvudsak utifrån avkastning på eget kapital och ackumulerat rörelseresultat. Valutasäkrad till brittiska pund (GBP).

Amundi JPX Nikkei 400 UCITS ETF Daily Hedged GBP (JPHG ETF) med ISIN LU1681039308, försöker följa JPX-Nikkei 400 (GBP Hedged) index. JPX-Nikkei 400 (GBP Hedged)-index spårar 400 japanska aktier. Aktierna väljs i huvudsak utifrån avkastning på eget kapital och ackumulerat rörelseresultat. Valutasäkrad till brittiska pund (GBP).

Den börshandlade fondens TER (total cost ratio) uppgår till 0,18 % p.a. Amundi JPX Nikkei 400 UCITS ETF Daily Hedged GBP är den enda ETF som följer JPX-Nikkei 400 (GBP Hedged) index. Denna ETF replikerar resultatet för det underliggande indexet syntetiskt med en swap. Utdelningarna i ETFen ackumuleras och återinvesteras.

Amundi JPX Nikkei 400 UCITS ETF Daily Hedged GBP är en mycket liten ETF med tillgångar på 3 miljoner euro under förvaltning. Denna ETF lanserades den 28 maj 2015 och har sin hemvist i Luxemburg.

Investeringsmål

Amundi JPX Nikkei 400 UCITS ETF Daily Hedged GBP strävar efter att så nära som möjligt replikera utvecklingen av utvecklingen för det yendenominerade JPX-Nikkei 400-indexet (återinvesterade nettoutdelningar), oavsett om trenden är stigande eller fallande och har en månatlig valutasäkring i GBP. Denna ETF gör det möjligt för investerare att dra nytta av en exponering mot ett urval av japanska aktier utvalda enligt kvantitativa kriterier och kvalitativa kriterier för bolagsstyrning, och viktade enligt deras börsvärde.

Handla JPHG ETF

Amundi JPX Nikkei 400 UCITS ETF Daily Hedged GBP (JPHG ETF) är en börshandlad fond (ETF) som handlas på London Stock Exchange.

London Stock Exchange är en marknad som få svenska banker och nätmäklare erbjuder access till, men DEGIRO gör det.

Börsnoteringar

BörsValutaKortnamn
gettexEUR18MQ
Euronext ParisGBPJPHG
London Stock ExchangeGBXJPHG
SIX Swiss ExchangeGBPJPHG

Största innehav

Denna fond använder syntetisk replikering för att spåra indexets prestanda.

NamnValutaVikt %Sektor
TOKYO ELECTRON JPY50JPY2,40 %Informationsteknologi
TOYOTA MOTOR CORPJPY2,08 %Sällanköpsvaror
MITSUBISHI CORPORATIONJPY2,08 %Industri
HITACHI LTDJPY2,05 %Industri
SHIN-ETSU CHEM CO JPY50JPY1,88 %Materials
RECRUIT HOLDINGS CO LTDJPY1,85 %Industri
MITSUI & CO LTDJPY1,82 %Industri
SUMITOMO MITSUI FINANCIAL GROUPJPY1,81 %Finans
MITSUBISHI UFJ FINANCIAL GROUPJPY1,81 %Finans
TOKIO MARINE HOLDINGS INCJPY1,68 %Finans

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