Nyheter
Bargain Hunting Drives Precious Metal Flows to Eight-Week High
- Commodity ETP Weekly Bargain Hunting Drives Precious Metal Flows to Eight-Week High
- ETFS Physical Platinum (PHPT) sees largest inflows since 2012 while ETFS Physical Palladium (PHPD) sees highest inflows since May 2014.
- Record inflows into ETFS Aluminium (ALUM).
- Silver ETPs see highest inflows since February 2014.
- Gold ETPs see first outflow in five weeks as prospects for global growth improve.
- As the price of WTI fell below US$78/bbl for the first time in 3 years, flows into long WTI ETPs rose to US$24.8mn, the highest level since March 2014.
While precious metal prices capitulated last week, we saw strong flows into platinum, palladium and silver. Bargain hunting is clearly driving flows. With the global industrial cycle improving, demand for the more industrially dependent precious metals is likely to rise and therefore help reverse the losses these metals have sustained due to their correlation with gold. With all precious metals trading near or below their marginal cost of production, we expect mining activity to begin to be cut back, tightening supply, and supporting prices
ETFS Physical Platinum (PHPT) sees largest inflows since 2012 while ETFS Physical Palladium (PHPD) sees highest inflows since May 2014
US$45.4mn of flows into PHPT and US$38.9mn into PHPD highlights just how attractive investors think platinum group metals (PGMs) are right now. With their ubiquitous use in auto-catalysts and rising car demand in the US, China and Europe, demand for PGMs remains strong. Meanwhile unprofitable mines in South Africa are likely to continue to be shut down and the stability of exports from Russia is likely to remain a concern, which will eventually lead to upward price pressure.
Record inflows into ETFS Aluminium (ALUM)
At US$96.9mn, last week’s inflow was the highest since the inception of ALUM in 2006. After years of depressed aluminium prices, in 2014 we have seen aluminium rise close to 19% year-to-date. Even last week when most other metal prices fell, aluminium gained 1.9%. The catalyst behind the rally has been the tightness in bauxite supply, a key input for aluminium production, following Indonesia’s ban on raw mineral exports. Over-production of aluminium in China is likely to be cut in 2015 as the government pulls back from continuously subsidising loss-making smelters, especially now given the tightness in the bauxite market.
Silver ETPs see highest inflows since February 2014.
After falling close to 9% last week, silver prices reached the lowest levels since 2012. Relative to gold it is the cheapest it has been since 2009, despite the recent declines the gold price. The upturn in the industrial cycle bodes well for the silver and we could see the excess supply slowly be absorbed. Inflows into silver ETPs totalled US$35.7mn last week.
Gold ETPs see first outflow in five weeks as prospects for global growth improve
US economic growth in particular looks buoyant and is likely to drive the US dollar even higher, placing downward pressure on gold in dollar terms. Gold fell 4.7% last week and the pressure on the metal could remain. We saw US$85.8mn of outflows, reversing the previous four-weeks of inflows as more investors became bearish on the metal’s prospects.
As the price of WTI fell below US$78/bbl for the first time in 3 years, flows into long WTI ETPs rose to US$24.8mn, the highest level since March 2014
The price of the WTI reacted strongly to the news that Saudi Arabia had cut prices in the US. While the OPEC cartel appears to be in disarray, with the smaller members undercutting each other’s prices in Asia, we note the cartel has survived since 1960 despite the turbulence the member countries have endured since that time. We believe the November 27th meeting could be a pivotal point to sharpen the group’s common interests, likely driving the price of oil back to levels consistent with balancing OPEC government budgets, above US$90/bbl.
Key events to watch this week
A number of Chinese data releases including industrial production and loan growth will help investors gauge the strength of likely demand from the world’s largest consumer of commodities. Meanwhile the advance release of Q3 GDP from the Euro area could give an indication of the (lack of) strength of demand elsewhere.
Video Presentation
Nitesh Shah, Research Analyst at ETF Securities provides an analysis of last week’s performance, flow and trading activity in commodity exchange traded products and a look at the week ahead.
Important Information
This communication has been provided by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority.
Welcome to the State of Crypto Weekly, an investor-focused newsletter from 21shares that dives into the key trends driving the digital asset landscape.
This week, we’re unveiling our Price Predictions series, unpacking the key drivers for the year ahead:
- Where is Bitcoin headed in 2026?
- Why we think Ethereum can go up to $4,200 this year, and what could drag it down to $1,700.
And, should you find yourself in Davos this week, we would love to connect with you. If you’re up for combining alpine views with crypto conversation, please reach out to our President Duncan Moir, Research Strategist Darius Moukhtarzadeh, or Head of Northern Europe Bernhard Wenger.
Predicting prices is arguably the financial world’s favorite game. In the cryptocurrency market, that interest is multiplied by historical narratives around volatility and market reactions. But what really drives prices? And what do we think is on the cards for Bitcoin and Ethereum in 2026?
WHERE IS BITCOIN HEADED IN 2026?
ETF gravity vs. Macro ceiling
The halving’s influence has peaked. By early 2026, Bitcoin’s price will no longer be driven by this supply shift but by how effectively long-term holders absorb sell-offs from ETFs during shifts in the global economy.
WHY WE THINK ETHEREUM CAN GO UP TO $4,200 THIS YEAR…
And what could drag it down to $1,700
Price action is now driven less by the ultrasound money narrative that shaped Ethereum from 2021-2023 and more by ETF flows and whether real economic throughput on Ethereum can translate into sustainable, profitable consumer applications.
This shift has accelerated over the past quarter as Ethereum’s position as the preferred venue for stablecoins and tokenized assets has further consolidated.
In case you missed it
21shares in the world
Commenting on lower inflation data in the US
Crypto research strategist Matt Mena was quoted on CoinDesk: “This morning’s CPI report has provided the definitive anchor the market needed to clear the lingering data fog from late 2025. Core CPI coming in lower than expected reinforces the Fed’s soft landing narrative and increases chances of further cuts this year, even amid political noise around the DOJ’s investigation into Chair Powell.”
Matt was also quoted on Forbes: ”This Supreme Court ruling on federal tariff authority will be a massive volatility driver for both the dollar and risk assets.”
On our radar
What we’re keeping an eye on
Our senior sales associate, Bruna Cabús, will be on CNN Brasil tomorrow, Tuesday, at 7:30 PM BRT to talk about crypto. In the meantime, connect with her on LinkedIn.
Our very own crypto research strategist Darius Moukhtarzadeh will be speaking at Web3 Hub in Davos on Thursday, January 22.
Connect with us today
If you have any questions or want to discuss a product in detail, please visit our website at www.21shares.com
Digitala valutor
Research Newsletter
Each week the 21Shares Research team will publish our data-driven insights into the crypto asset world through this newsletter. Please direct any comments, questions, and words of feedback to research@21shares.com
Disclaimer
The information provided does not constitute a prospectus or other offering material and does not contain or constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy securities in any jurisdiction. Some of the information published herein may contain forward-looking statements. Readers are cautioned that any such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks and uncertainties and that actual results may differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements as a result of various factors. The information contained herein may not be considered as economic, legal, tax or other advice and users are cautioned to base investment decisions or other decisions solely on the content hereof.
Deutsche Börse välkomnar TEQ Capital som ny ETF-utgivare
ESAH ETF ger exponering mot amerikanska småbolag
BTC and ETH: price predictions minus the crystal ball
BULL BTC X2 VALOU ger dubbla avkastningen på Bitcoin
Börshandlade produkter som ger exponering mot naturgas
Månadsutdelande ETFer uppdaterad med fond för europeiska superutdelare
Detta var vad investerarna sökte på mest under 2025
Börshandlade produkter för att investera i ädelmetaller
En börshandlad fond med fokus på Millennials
LC39 ETF minskar aktieexponeringen över tiden
-
Nyheter4 veckor sedanMånadsutdelande ETFer uppdaterad med fond för europeiska superutdelare
-
Nyheter2 veckor sedanDetta var vad investerarna sökte på mest under 2025
-
Nyheter2 veckor sedanBörshandlade produkter för att investera i ädelmetaller
-
Nyheter3 veckor sedanEn börshandlad fond med fokus på Millennials
-
Nyheter3 veckor sedanLC39 ETF minskar aktieexponeringen över tiden
-
Nyheter4 veckor sedanXMN1 ETF investerar på den nordiska aktiemarknaden
-
Nyheter2 veckor sedanTom Bailey, analyschef på HANetf, kommenterar nedan om kopparprisets rekordhöga nivåer
-
Nyheter3 veckor sedanEXU1 ETF köper aktier från hela världen utom USA
