Weekly Flows Analysis – The Fed minutes boost gold
Gold ETPs registered strong inflows after the release of the Federal Reserve (Fed) minutes of the March meeting on Wednesday suggested the chances of a rate hike in the short term were extremely limited.
The larger than expected draw on US crude oil inventory helped maintain flows into oil ETPs steady.
Inflows into broad commodity basket have risen to their highest level since December last year.
Inflows into broad baskets indicate a stronger interest from investors led by gold rebound and energy. Inflows into commodity baskets rose by their highest level since early December 2015 (US $27.3mn).
Precious metals benefited from the increased risk aversion following the release of the Fed’s minutes. Gold ETPs attracted larger inflows last week, US $118.6mn from US$96.8 the week before, as investors scaled back expectations for further rates hikes in the US. The minutes of the Fed’s March FOMC meeting released Wednesday showed officials seeing persistent external risks and the threats they posed to the US economy. As a result, the odds of a rate hike in December have dropped to 48 percent from 58 percent earlier last week, based on Fed-fund futures data. Market participants now expect policy makers’ next move in February 2017. The increase of risk aversion and the subsequent decline of the US dollar versus Japanese Yen and Euro, led to the gold rally last week. Silver ETP inflows also increased last weak reaching their 4 week high, marking seven consecutive weeks of increase.
Energy ETPs continue to attract strong inflows, led by Brent oil ETPs (US$17.6mn). Ahead of Doha meeting on April 17, oil prices advanced last week on speculation over whether an accord to freeze or cap output can be reached. Saudi Arabia said it will only agree to a freeze if other suppliers do so, while Kuwait said a deal can be done without Iran’s support. On the other hand, WTI crude oil ETPs received inflows worth US$15.3mn as US oil inventories were drawn down more than expected.
Copper ETPs attract US$10.8mn of inflows amid declining price. Inflows into copper reached US$10.8mn last week reflecting investors bargain hunting after copper has declined 4.4% last week to a six-week low of $4,630 per ton. In addition, aluminium ETPs inflows surged to their highest level in six months (US$12.7mn).
Key events to watch this week. Industrial production data in some of the world’s largest economies (US, Euro area and China) will give investors a gauge for how demand for commodities is faring. Additionally, markets participants will also be looking at retail sales and the Empire State survey of manufacturers in the US. Separately, inflation figures in the euro area, UK and US will also be of greatest interest for investors. The Bank of England will conduct its monetary policy meeting on Thursday. The decision is broadly expected by market participants to remain unchanged (i.e. total asset purchases of £375bn and base rate at 0.5%).
Morgane Delledonne, Fixed Income Strategist at ETF Securities provides an analysis of last week’s performance, flow and trading activity in commodity exchange traded products and a look at the week ahead.
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This communication has been provided by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority.