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President Elect Trump– Geopolitical & Market Implications

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8 år sedan

den

9 november, 2016

President Elect Donald Trump’s ability to resonate with the populist mood has proven successful – populism in the developed world is on a worrying rise. We have collated what we believe are the most important investment implications of Donald Trump winning the US election. President Elect Trump– Geopolitical & Market Implications

Politics

The uncertainty around Trump’s political agenda and the possible increase in protectionist measures could weigh on global trade and ultimately dampen the global economic outlook, favouring bonds over equities
It is likely there will be panic amongst Nato allies in the Baltic states as Putin may decide to use Donald Trump’s friendly relationship to position troops in the region
In Europe in 2017 there are elections in France, the Netherlands, Germany, Austria and potential for an election in Italy. In these regions many populist parties are either leading or rising rapidly at present leading to further market volatility in 2017

Currencies

Currency vigilantes are likely to act. A sharp fall in the USD will result as uncertainty over trade and foreign policy jumps
Rising FX volatility is another negative for the GBP. GBP moves inversely to volatility and will likely sell-off against major currencies. JPY and CHF will be the big gainers under a Trump Presidency
MXN will experience a sharp fall as anti-Mexican sentiment from Trump is likely to depress investor optimism about the future of NAFTA and the benefits that accrue to Mexico from free trade

Equities & Gold

Donald Trump has been critical of loose monetary policy and is likely to seek a new governor with a more hawkish outlook when Yellen’s tenure is complete. Investors are likely react negatively to this monetary policy uncertainty
Furthermore, US equities are trading at a 50% premium to their long-term cyclically adjusted valuations, making them more vulnerable to a sell-off. Consequently, some equities are likely to hit their limit down (5% fall) and therefore have trading suspended
A weak USD is likely to benefit the S&P100 as 50% of revenues are derived from abroad, although, in the shorter-term they are likely to decline too.
A Trump win is likely to drive gold prices higher as investors seek a haven asset in a similar manner to what we saw during Brexit. Gold miners will likely benefit as they have a 2.4x beta to the gold price
Donald Trump has pledged $550bn of infrastructure spend, having control of both the House and the Senate means he has a higher chance of getting these proposals approved. Industrial stocks that maintain civil infrastructure are likely to benefit from higher opportunities for government projects under Trump

James Butterfill, Head of Research & Investment Strategy at ETF Securities

James Butterfill joined ETF Securities as Head of Research & Investment Strategy in 2015. James is responsible for leading the strategic direction of the global research team, ensuring that clients receive up-to-date, expert insight into global macroeconomic and asset class specific developments.

James has a wealth of experience in strategy, economics and asset allocation gained at HSBC and most recently in his role as Multi- Asset Fund Manager and Global Equity Strategist at Coutts. James holds a Bachelor of Engineering from the University of Exeter and an MSc in Geophysics from Keele University.

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After one year, BTC ETFs in the US have reached $660B in trading volume; the UK and Hong Kong are making progress in crypto adoption and regulation

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14 timmar sedan

den

13 januari, 2025

Redaktionen

The crypto investment journey is shaped by volatility, even in a bull market. Significant longer-term returns are frequently accompanied by substantial short-term drawdowns.

The table below from our research team shows how many Bitcoin drawdowns of 10% or greater there have been since 2010. In this bull cycle, we anticipate similar short-term fluctuations as price discovery unfolds. However, as BTC continues to mature, these drawdowns may be less severe and volatility may continue to come down over time.

Source: Hashdex Research with data from Messari (from July 21, 2010 to December 31, 2024).

Market Highlights | Jan 06 2025 – Jan 12 2025

One-year anniversary US bitcoin ETFs

• Spot bitcoin ETFs recorded a total trading volume of $660 billion in the last 12 months, with $36.2 billion in total net inflows.

• The unprecedented success of these products underscores the important role of ETFs in institutional adoption and price action throughout 2024.

Hong Kong sets up blockchain “guide” for banks

• Hong Kong’s Monetary Authority set up a “supervisory incubator” to help banks manage risks with blockchain adoption and experimenting.

• This initiative highlights the growing importance of blockchain technology worldwide and Hong Kong’s plan to become a crypto hub.

UK crypto staking legislation

• The UK treasury amended legislation enabling crypto staking services to be exempt from the rules of governing collective investment scheme.

• This supports our perspective that more regulatory clarity for crypto investors will come in 2025, helping to accelerate adoption.

Market Metrics | The Nasdaq Crypto Index™

This week was marked by a drawdown for crypto assets, with the NCI™ falling 4.7%. Still, year to date, the index only lags gold (+2.3%) in performance, reinforcing the “debasement trade” theory we presented in the last Hash Insider.

Source: Hashdex Research with data from CF Benchmarks and Bloomberg (from December 31, 2024 to January 12, 2025).

It was a red week for all NCI™ components, with XRP (+6.1%) being the lone exception. Potential drivers of this negative performance include better-than-expected US payroll data, which might suggest higher inflation in the future, a traditionally bearish driver for short-term price action.

Source: Hashdex Research with data from Messari (from January 05, 2025 to January 12, 2025).

Market Metrics | Indices tracked by Hashdex

Source: Hashdex Research with data from CF Benchmarks and Vinter (from January 12, 2024 to January 12, 2025).

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Information för innehavare av Valour Fantom (FTM)-certifikat

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15 timmar sedan

den

13 januari, 2025

Redaktionen

Information för innehavare av Valour Fantom (FTM)-certifikat: Detaljer om Sonic-migreringen och byte av namn. Bytet från Fantom (FTM) till Sonic (S) markerar övergången till det nya Sonic huvudnätet, med FTM-innehavare som kan uppgradera sina tokens till S i förhållandet 1:1. Valour kommer att hantera hela migreringsprocessen på uppdrag av Valour Fantom (FTM) certifikatinnehavare, vilket säkerställer en sömlös övergång.

Som en del av denna process kommer certifikatet att döpas om från Valour Fantom (FTM) SEK till Valour Sonic (S) SEK.

Det är Valours mål att lägga till gratis airdrops av betydande värde till certifikatens NAV (Net Asset Value) när det är möjligt. Det är dock viktigt att notera att värdefulla airdrops ofta inte distribueras fritt till tillgångsinnehavare. Istället tilldelas dessa airdrops vanligtvis till betydande användare och bidragsgivare till nätverket som kompensation för deras aktiva engagemang och stöd till projektet. I situationer där distributioner är baserade på specifikt användarengagemang eller bidrag, är det osannolikt att Valour tar emot dessa airdrops.

Innehavare av Valour Fantom (FTM) behöver inte vidta några åtgärder, eftersom Valour kommer att hantera alla aspekter av utbytet och integrationen.

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Fidelitys Bitcoin ETF ser utflöden på 257 miljoner dollar, vad händer?

Publicerad

16 timmar sedan

den

13 januari, 2025

Redaktionen

Enligt Lookonchain-data från den 10 januari såg Fidelitys Bitcoin ETF betydande utflöden, vilket återspeglar försiktiga investerares sentiment. Det var emellertid inte bara Fidelitys Bitcoin ETF som såg utflöden, det gäller även denna emittents Ethereum ETF. Samma sak gäller även för andra amerikanska börshandlade fonder som spårar kryptovalutor.

Amerikanska Bitcoin ETFer såg ett nettoutflöde på 2 152 BTC (cirka 201,21 miljoner USD), där Fidelitys Bitcoin ETF bidrog till detta med ett utflöde på 2 752 BTC (257,26 miljoner USD). Trots detta fortsätter Fidelity att inneha betydande 205 488 BTC värderade till 19,21 miljarder dollar.

På liknande sätt hade Ethereum ETFer ett nettoutflöde på 45 684 ETH (148,11 miljoner USD), främst driven av Fidelity, som stod för 44 998 ETH (145,88 miljoner USD).

10 Bitcoin ETFer

NetFlow: -2 152 BTC (-$201,21 MUSD) varav Fidelitys utflöden -2 752 BTC (-257,26 M) och har för närvarande 205 488 $BTC($19,21B) under förvaltning.

9 Ethereum ETFer

NetFlow: -45 684 ETH(-$148,11 miljoner) varav Fidelity utflöden 44 998 ETH (145,88 MUSD).

Fidelitys Ethereum-innehav uppgår nu till 415 503 ETH, värderat till 1,35 miljarder dollar. Dessa rörelser tyder på en omkalibrering av innehav, möjligen påverkad av marknadsförhållanden eller strategisk ombalansering när investerare navigerar i början av 2025-trender.

BlackRock överglänste av Fidelity i spot Bitcoin ETF

Denna utveckling följer en utmanande period för BlackRock, som upplevde två betydande Bitcoin-utflöden i december – det största sedan ETFernas start.

Fidelitys aggressiva ackumulering belyser dess engagemang för att stärka sin position på krypto-ETF-marknaden, vilket signalerar växande institutionellt intresse och konkurrens i denna snabbt utvecklande sektor.

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