Commodity ETP Weekly – Poor jobs report lends support to gold
• Gold ETPs saw net inflows of US$5.5mn ahead of the release of the jobs report. • Platinum group metals diverge. • WTI oil ETPs receive inflows, while Brent see outflows. • ETFS Daily Short Copper (SCOP) saw outflows of US$5.3mn as investors cut their bearish bets. • ETF Securities will be hosting a Q4 update on the 8 October to look at trends for commodities, equities and currencies
The week ended with a disappointing US labour market report, which has pushed out expectations for the Federal Reserve’s rate increase even further. Gold responded positively as investors favour the hard monetary asset against the US dollar, a currency they feel is being debased the longer the policy setting remains ultra-low. This week’s Fed meeting minutes could offer more clues as to when the central will likely raise rates.
Gold ETPs saw net inflows of US$5.5mn ahead of the release of the jobs report. That marked the third consecutive week of gold inflows. While significantly below the inflows of US$16.6mn and US$40.9mn in the prior two weeks, turnover was markedly high. Both large creations and large redemptions were made in the week highlighting the polarized views held by investors. Some investors are encouraged by increasing Chinese gold imports and seasonal demand in India. Other investors viewed the Federal Reserve’s commitment to raise rates this year as a gold-negative development and continued to pare their holdings. We don’t think that a single labour market report will change the timing of the Fed’s decision to raise rates (which we believe will happen in December), but further pronounced data weakness could sway the central bank’s mind.
Platinum group metals diverge. Palladium gained 1.4% last week while platinum lost 2.9%. In the wake of the scandal at Volkswagen, many investors feel that there will be a consumer backlash against diesel cars, favouring their gasoline counterparts. Diesel cars use more platinum in their autocatalysts where as gasoline cars use more palladium. The scandal epitomizes a trend already in place. With tighter emissions regulations in Europe, targeting nitrogen oxide (NOx), as well as carbon monoxide (CO), platinum was already losing favour. Platinum, while very effective at converting CO to less harmful gases, is not quite as good at converting NOx. Palladium is better at removing NOx, encouraging higher loading of the metal in autocatalysts. Platinum ETPs saw US$11.3mn of outflows. Palladium also saw outflows as investors took profit.
WTI oil ETPs receive inflows, while Brent see outflows. Breaking a 14-week streak, Brent oil ETPs saw outflows last week after the price of the benchmark lost 1.0%. WTI sustained a more moderate decline, dropping just 0.4%. WTI oil ETPs saw inflows after a two-week break. Weak oil prices are driving cuts to upstream oil investment and spurring an increase in demand. An output glut will take time to work though, but the path to supply/demand balance could see the oil benchmarks reach the US$60-70/bbl range in the latter half of 2016.
ETFS Daily Short Copper (SCOP) saw outflows of US$5.3mn as investors cut their bearish bets. Copper gained 0.9% last week as the prospects for supply tightening gathers pace. Major miners such as Glencore have indicated their intention to cut production and we could end up in the sixth consecutive year of a supply deficit if the trend continues.
Key events to watch this week. Investors will be poring over the FOMC meeting minute for further clues as to which committee members are becoming more hawkish. Any sign that the central bank is eager to hit the trigger sooner than December could hurt gold prices.
Video Presentation
Nitesh Shah, Research Analyst at ETF Securities provides an analysis of last week’s performance, flow and trading activity in commodity exchange traded products and a look at the week ahead.
For more information contact
ETF Securities Research team ETF Securities (UK) Limited T +44 (0) 207 448 4336 E info@etfsecurities.com
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This communication has been provided by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority.
STOXX® Global Select Dividend 100-index innehåller 100 aktier från utvecklade länder över hela världen med hög direktavkastning. Urvalet baseras på historisk direktavkastning och viktningen görs genom beräknad direktavkastning. STOXX Global Select Dividend 100-index innehåller i allmänhet 40 aktier från Nordamerika, 30 aktier från Europa och 30 aktier från Asien-Stillahavsområdet.
ETF-investerare kan dra nytta av kursvinster och utdelningar av STOXX Global Select Dividend 100-beståndsdelar. För närvarande spåras detta index av två ETFer. Den årliga förvaltningskostnaden ligger på mellan 0,46 – 0,50 % p.a.
Kostnad för STOXX Global Select Dividend 100 ETF:er
Den totala kostnadskvoten (TER) för STOXX Global Select Dividend 100 ETFer är mellan 0,46 % p.a. och 0,50 % p.a. I jämförelse kostar de flesta aktivt förvaltade fonder mycket mer avgifter per år.
Den största STOXX Global Select Dividend 100 ETF efter fondstorlek i EUR
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2,392 m
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612 m
Den billigaste STOXX Global Select Dividend 100 ETF efter totalkostnadskvot
1
iShares STOXX Global Select Dividend 100 UCITSETF (DE)
0.46%
2
Xtrackers STOXX Global Select Dividend 100 SwapUCITSETF 1D
0.50%
De bästa ETFerna för att få exponering mot STOXX Global Select Dividend 100
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BetaPlus Enhanced Global Developed Sustainable Equity UCITSETF – USD ACCETF (BPDE ETF) med ISIN IE00060Z4AE1, investerar i aktier och aktierelaterade värdepapper i företag som valts ut av investeringsförvaltaren med särskilt fokus på företagens hållbarhetsegenskaper, vilket uppnås genom integration av miljömässiga, sociala och bolagsstyrningsfaktorer genom att tillämpa ESG-undantag och ESG-integration, samt företagens förmåga att erbjuda överlägsna tillväxtutsikter och investeringsegenskaper.
Investeringsförvaltaren förvaltar aktivt portföljen på ett sätt som gör att fondens aktiva risk- och avkastningsnivå förväntas vara måttlig i förhållande till den breda marknaden, vilket kallas ”BetaPlus Enhanced”-metoden.
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BetaPlus Enhanced Global Developed Sustainable Equity UCITSETF – USD ACCETFär en mycket liten ETF med 17 miljoner euro i förvaltningstillgångar. Denna ETF lanserades den 16 juni 2025 och har sitt säte i Irland.
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Welcome to the first monthly edition of the State of Crypto, cutting through the noise and helping guide your investment decisions at the start of every month.
April saw bitcoin’s strongest monthly performance in over a year, rallying 12% to $79,500.
While $78,000 remains a stubborn resistance level, the underlying market structure suggests a fundamental shift: the market’s largest holders are treating this correction as a structural buying opportunity.
BITCOIN IN THE MACRO BACKDROP
• Risk–on rebound: A recovery in tech and AI spilled into crypto, giving BTC the momentum to climb from $69,000.
• Policy and energy: With the Strait of Hormuz closed and energy–driven inflation sticking, markets now price in zero rate cuts for 2026.
• Patient capital: Institutional conviction is high. US spot ETFs absorbed $2.4 billion in April, while corporate treasuries – led by Strategy’s $2.5 billion purchase – are building a massive price floor.
MARKET DYNAMICS TO WATCH
• Flight to quality: Capital is slowly moving up the risk curve. Bitcoin dominance is at its highest since mid–2025 as investors favor blue chips over the DeFi sector, which has been hit by recent protocol exploits.
• Liquidity resilience: Stablecoin supply reached a record $321 billion. Unlike in prior cycles, when capital exited the market during dips, today’s dry powder is staying onchain.
• Miner health: Despite high energy costs, large–scale miners are accumulating BTC, signaling they expect higher prices ahead.
WHAT NOW?
The $74,400 zone has flipped from resistance to support. We are still waiting for a catalyst to clear the macro uncertainty, but the current consolidation looks more like a launchpad than a ceiling. A decisive weekly close above $78,000 would confirm a regime shift and open the path toward $85,000.
Get the full deep–dive: technical charts, an analysis of the ”mythos” AI effect, and our bull/bear scenario mapping for Q2.
21shares Chief Investment Strategist Adrian Fritz spoke with CoinDesk about the nearly $2 billion in spot bitcoin ETF inflows year-to-date, calling it a sign of structural – not speculative – demand, and flagging $100,000 as a realistic year-end target if geopolitical conditions ease and inflows hold.
Speaking to The Block, 21shares Senior Crypto Research Strategist Matt Mena weighed in on the Fed’s most split decision in over 30 years, arguing that hawkish dissenters threw cold water on the market’s rate-cut expectations heading into the Warsh era.
21shares Head of Macro Stephen Coltman told Axios that Warsh will struggle to build a rate-cut majority at the FOMC so long as core PCE stays above 3%, noting that Wednesday’s dissents sent an early and unambiguous signal of the internal resistance ahead.
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