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OPEC Affirms Production Ceiling of 30mbd



OPEC Affirms Production Ceiling of 30mbd

ETF Securities Commodity ETP Weekly OPEC Affirms Production Ceiling of 30mbd

Long natural gas ETPs see highest inflows since December 2014.

Oil market glut drives US$37.2mn out of long oil ETPs.

We are hosting a webinar at 2pm today to cover Friday’s OPEC meeting featuring Amrita Sen, a renowned oil analyst from Energy Aspects

Download the complete report (.pdf)


Agricultural commodities were the outperformers this week, with weather remaining a catalyst. In the case of coffee, the potential for crop damage during the Brazilian winter sparked fears of lower harvest. Wheat also posted a better than 7% gain for the week, as hard winter wheat quality dipped and the threat of rainfall potentially delaying harvests. With an El Niño expected to last most of this year, weather is likely to continue to be a source of volatility in agricultural markets this year. The OPEC cartel maintained the status quo as widely expected. A better-than-expected jobs report out on Friday in the US could place upward pressure on the US dollar and weigh on commodities this week.

Long natural gas ETPs see highest inflows since December 2014. Bargain hunters drove US$19.2mn into long natural gas ETPs as the price of US natural gas fell a further 3% last week (-7% in the past month). Gas in storage rose more than expected, driving its price lower. The US summer is a seasonal high demand period, driven by the need to power air conditioning. ETC investors appear to view the recent weakness in prices as an aberration and look for demand to strengthen during the course of the summer.

Oil market glut drives US$37.2mn out of long oil ETPs. A further US$3.8mn went into short oil ETPs, underscoring bearish sentiment. Investors widely anticipating the OPEC’s affirmation of its production ceiling of 30 million barrels per day, withdrew holdings of long oil. Managed money positions in ICE Brent crude futures have dropped by over 35% to the lowest level seen since early April. OPEC focused on the rising demand for oil as a supporting factor for its decision. In reality OPEC produces more than 31 million barrels per day, but the group claimed it will adhere to the ceiling more closely in the future, which was seen by some as a bullish signal. Nonetheless, we are skeptical. We believe that the market remains overly optimistic about the pace of supply tightening by non-OPEC producers and we could see a pull-back in price before supply does actually tighten later this year, potentially opening attractive entry points for investors. US stocks remain significantly elevated compared to longer term averages, despite rig counts falling by 60%. We acknowledge US commercial crude stocks are moving in the right direction after falling for the fifth consecutive week, but with the threat of Iran, Iraq and Syria ramping up production, the global glut could be extended.

The OPEC cartel promises to study the impact of falling investment on supply by its next meeting. It is currently concerned about the deferral of investment on oil production stability. OPEC has urged non-OPEC countries to also cooperate more in driving oil market stability. However, many markets including the shale industry in the US, do not have a forum for cooperation. These industries have many small firms operating independently. So it is doubtful that the cooperation the cartel is seeking will materialise. A possible outcome, as Saudi uses up more of its spare capacity, is that the more nimble US shale industry becomes the balancing agent in global oil supply when demand rises.

Key events to watch this week. A host of Chinese data ranging from inflation to exports to credit will give the market a sense for how the world’s largest consumer of commodities’ economy is faring. The USDA WASDE report will garner particular attention after the volatility in agricultural prices in recent weeks.

Video Presentation

Nitesh Shah, Research Analyst at ETF Securities provides an analysis of last week’s performance, flow and trading activity in commodity exchange traded products and a look at the week ahead.

Important Information

This communication has been provided by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority.

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