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Oil Rally Consolidates Conviction in Crude
Commodity ETP Weekly Oil Rally Consolidates Conviction in Crude
Strongest weekly rally in four years drives inflows into long oil ETPs.
ETFS Physical Gold (PHAU) reverses outflows from previous week.
Investors seeking leveraged exposure to gold drive inflows into ETFS Physical Silver (PHAG).
Bearish US inventory report stimulates inflows into long natural gas ETPs.
The gold price tumbled and crude rallied on Friday immediately following the release of strong US payrolls data which reflected the health of the US labour market and the continuing theme of divergence between the US and Eurozone economies. In Asia, after cutting the Reserve Requirement Ratio by 50bps the People’s Bank of China may be under pressure to take more significant easing measures if upcoming Chinese inflation, money and loan supply data prove disappointing. Industrial metal prices are likely to be key beneficiaries of any further stimulus measures that are announced by the Chinese authorities.
Strongest weekly rally in four years drives inflows into long oil ETPs. ETFS WTI Crude Oil (CRUD) and ETFS Brent (OILB) saw US$80m of inflows this week as crude prices experienced the largest weekly gain since 2011. Escalation of violence in Libya, strong US labour market data and fall in the US oil rig count have prompted a strong rally in oil prices despite the release of record high US crude inventory figures. Investors are positioning themselves to benefit from the current positive sentiment in oil markets and the potential recovery in crude prices over the year.
ETFS Physical Gold (PHAU) reverses outflows from previous week. US$65mn flowed into PHAU this week as investors continued to seek a safe haven from the uncertain political and economic situation in Europe. The gold price swung between gains and losses this week ultimately ending the week down 0.7%. The gold price was pressured by news that the newly elected Greek government would not be demanding a write off of international debt contrary to market expectations.
Investors seeking leveraged exposure to gold drive inflows into ETFS Physical Silver (PHAG). US$20mn flowed into PHAG this week despite the price falling -2.5%. Silver has performed well this year climbing 6.4% YTD as deflationary price pressure from tumbling oil prices has instigated a series of rate cuts by central banks and quantitative easing (QE) by the ECB. The result has been increased demand for silver due to investors perceiving the metal as a leverage play on gold.
Bearish US inventory report stimulates inflows into long natural gas ETPs. Bargain hunting investors seeking a rebound in prices drove US$7.2mn of inflows into ETFS Daily Leveraged Natural Gas as the spot price reached two and a half year lows this week. The fall was instigated by a smaller than expected withdrawal from US natural gas storage reported by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Investors are betting that low gas prices will stimulate greater demand from industrial producers and electricity companies in coming months which should lead to a price recovery.
Key events to watch this week. Following the strong US payrolls reading on Friday market attention will turn towards Europe and Asia this week. On Wednesday, the Euro area finance ministers hold emergency meeting to discuss a sustainable solution to Greece’s bailout program. This will come before Eurozone Q4 2014 GDP data released on Friday. In China, release of the level of aggregate financing, new Yuan loans and money supply will give a good indication of the health of Chinese credit markets and provide signs as to whether the central bank will have to ease policy further.
Video Presentation
Josh Tiwana, Research Analyst at ETF Securities provides an analysis of last week’s performance, flow and trading activity in commodity exchange traded products and a look at the week ahead.
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This communication has been provided by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority.
As April winds down, markets remain on edge, with escalating tariffs and renewed trade tensions keeping volatility in focus. In this summary of our full-length newsletter, we spotlight gold and gold equities, both of which have surged to record levels. We also take a step back from the day-to-day noise in crypto to explore the broader shifts in the regulatory landscape in our latest Whitepaper and present Celestia in detail. Finally, we assess how Moat indexes have held up and evolved amid the turbulence.
Your VanEck Europe team wishes you a great read.
Featured Articles
🥇 Are Gold Mining Equities Regaining Attention Amid Rising Gold Prices?
Gold & Gold mining equities tend to shine during stress periods
Source: VanEck, World Gold Council.
Gold has attracted renewed interest from investors amid concerns about inflation, currency volatility, and overall market uncertainty. Gold mining companies have recently reported improved profit margins and cash generation, with some initiating share buybacks and maintaining relatively strong balance sheets. Despite these developments, many continue to trade below their historical valuation averages.
While historical trends indicate that gold and gold mining equities have outperformed during certain periods of market stress, these patterns may not repeat under different economic conditions. Performance can be influenced by a range of factors including interest rates, central bank policy, geopolitical developments, and investor sentiment.
→ Read more
⚖️ Whitepaper Highlights: How New Crypto Regulations May Shape the Future
Cryptocurrencies are entering a new era. With the re-election of Donald Trump and the implementation of the European Union’s Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) regulation, digital assets are moving into a landscape defined not just by innovation, but also by regulatory clarity.
MiCA’s structured and transparent approach aims to promote legitimacy, safeguard investors, and enhance trust in digital asset markets across Europe. It could also serve as a blueprint for other jurisdictions looking to regulate crypto effectively.
→ Read the Whitepaper Highlights
⛓️ Introduction to Celestia
Most blockchains, like Ethereum or Bitcoin, are monolithic which means they perform all major functions (consensus, data availability, and execution) on a single layer. This design ensures security but according to new modular networks, limits scalability and flexibility.
The modular blockchain thesis, which Celestia is leading, proposes separation of layers and respective responsibilities in the network.
→ Read more
Note: This article in not accessible to our UK readers.
🌊 Riding the Gold Wave
Chasing the Vein: Fund Flows into Gold Miners
Source: Mining.com. Data as of 21 March 2025. Note: Data covers 493 funds with combined assets under management of $62 billion.
U.S. equity markets experienced significant declines during the month of March. Meanwhile, spot gold price recorded new all-time highs, surpassing the $3,000 per ounce mark on 14 March and closing at a record price of $3123.57 on March 31, a 9.30% ($265.73) monthly gain. As of 31 March, gold prices have risen by 93.61% over the past five years (1). Investors should keep in mind that past performance is not representative of future results.
The gold miners, as represented by the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index (GDMNTR), outperformed significantly, up 15.51% during March (2). This gain reflects both their operational leverage to rising gold prices and market perceptions of relative value. However, gold miners can also be subject to heightened volatility, operational risks, and sensitivity to commodity price swings.
While gold and gold equities may serve as diversifiers in a portfolio due to their historically low correlations with many asset classes, investors should remain mindful of the inherent risks, including price volatility, currency movements, and shifts in investor sentiment that can lead to rapid reversals in performance.
→ Read more
🌪️ Moat Stocks Weather Tariff Tumble
Market turbulence in March weighed on stocks. The Moat Index was not immune to the market turmoil, as it declined along with the broad U.S. equity market ending the month lower. However, the Moat Index showed resilience relative to the S&P 500—thanks in part to defensive sector resilience and underweight exposure to mega-caps.
At the same time, the SMID Moat Index lagged small and mid-caps in March. Smaller U.S. stocks were also impacted by global trade tensions and economic growth concerns with the broad small- and mid-cap benchmarks falling during the month. However, year-to-date, the SMID Moat Index remains ahead of the broader small- and mid-cap markets.
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(1) Source: World Gold Council, ICE Data Services, FactSet Research Systems Inc.
(2) Source: Financial Times.
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