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Monthly crypto market update and performance attribution of Hashdex Crypto-Index ETPs
Please find below our monthly crypto market update and performance attribution for our Crypto-Index ETPs for June 2024.
You’ll also find a commentary from our research analysts on Bitcoin’s current short-term price action, suggesting a potential entry point on the asset class. Our optimistic mid-term perspectives for this market remain unchanged (see my email from end of June).
Our flagship ETP on the Nasdaq Crypto Index (HASH or HDX1) recently surpassed $100 million in AUM. To support further growth, and since we are optimistic on its potential performance, we are waiving the TER fee until it reaches $1 billion in AUM.
Hashdex Crypto Index ETPs: performances (USD) as of end of June 2024
• Beta Index ETP – Nasdaq Crypto Index ETP (HASH or HDX1): June -9%, YTD +36%, 12m +99%.
• Smart-Beta Index ETP – Crypto Momentum Index ETP (HAMO or HDXM): June -10%, YTD -1%, 12m +76%.
Market Update
June was a challenging month for crypto assets, with the Nasdaq Crypto Index (NCI) declining by 9.3%. However, in the past 12 months, the NCI has achieved significant growth, up 99%, with eight positive and four negative months. Despite the recent downturn, several short-term catalysts suggest a potential inflection point in the crypto market, driven by rising ETF demand and increasing institutional interest.
• Altseason on the Horizon: As discussed in Samir Kerbage’s latest CIO Notes, we are approaching a phase where altcoins are expected to outperform, coinciding with potential Federal Reserve rate cuts and the US elections.
• Macroeconomic Tailwinds: Increased global liquidity and anticipated Fed rate cuts by Q4 provide a favorable backdrop for risk assets, including crypto.
• US Election Impact: The upcoming US election is likely to create a more favorable regulatory environment for crypto, with both major parties adjusting their stances to attract crypto-supportive voters.
• Institutional Interest: The recent progress in crypto ETFs marks a pivotal moment, opening doors to significant institutional capital inflows. Our decision to waive fees for the Hashdex Nasdaq Crypto Index ETP (HASH) reflects our confidence in the growing demand.
• Cyclical Timing: Historical data shows that buying crypto assets in the current phase of the cycle (60-90 days post-Bitcoin halving) often results in substantial upside and minimizes downside risk.
Nasdaq Crypto Index (NCI) relative to other asset class in June 24
Source: Hashdex, as of 30/06/24.
June was quite positive for traditional risk assets. Driven mainly by the performance of technology sector companies, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indices appreciated by 3.6% and 6.3%, respectively. Crypto assets, decoupled and posted negative returns.
June’s Performance attribution
Nasdaq Crypto Index (NCI): Negative performance was widespread among the NCI’s constituent assets, notably -10.6% (Bitcoin), -21% (Chainlink), and -21.2% (Avalanche).
Source: Hashdex, as of 30/06/24.
Crypto Momentum Factor Index
Source: Hashdex, as of 30/06/24.
Correlation (3m) to traditional asset classes
Source: Hashdex
Research commentary on recent price action of Bitcoin
Is it 2023 all over again?
• While Bitcoin’s price action since early March might seem uneventful and disappointing, this consolidation phase is not unusual. Looking back to 2023, after Bitcoin entered the $26,000 to $30,400 range, it remained there for about 224 days (7 and 1/2 months) before finally breaking out into the $40,000s.
• Currently, following the significant upward movement due to the success of spot ETFs in the US, bitcoin’s weekly closes have remained between $61,500 and $71,250 for around 112 days (almost 4 months).
• If the pattern from 2023 repeats, the next upward move for Bitcoin might still be a few months away, possibly beginning between late September and early October of this year.
• Although past performance is not a guarantee of future results, this comparison suggests that the current ”boring” period is maybe just ”business as usual,” and that a significant upswing may be on the cards for the last quarter of 2024.
Hashdex Nasdaq Crypto Index Europe ETP – documentation
ISIN: CH1184151731 / Tickers: HASH (SIX and Euronext) or HDX1 (Xetra) – tradable in USD, EUR, CHF and GBP
Hashdex Crypto Momentum Factor ETP – documentation
ISIN: CH1218734544 / Tickers: HAMO (SIX and Euronext) or HDXM (Xetra) – tradable in USD, EUR, CHF and GBP
Many investors wonder: If I add Bitcoin to my portfolio, what difference will it make? To answer these questions, we analyzed data to see how even a small Bitcoin allocation can impact your overall investment returns and risk.
It’s Crypto Week. Keep an eye on these bills
This week, the US House of Representatives will host “Crypto Week,” a focused effort to create clearer rules for digital assets. If these new laws pass, they could help investors feel more confident about entering the crypto market. The historic Crypto Week will likely benefit crypto lending projects like Aave, which has recently exceeded $45 billion in total value locked. Take a closer look at what’s on Congress’s agenda and why it matters for the future of crypto.
Turning stocks into tokens? Why it’s cool, but complicated
Crypto keeps evolving, and one clear use case is tokenization, turning real-world assets like property, investment funds, or stocks into digital tokens on the blockchain. Tokenized stocks are grabbing headlines right now as they let you trade company shares anytime, anywhere, making investing easier and faster. But it’s still early days, and there are challenges ahead. Explore how stock tokenization works and what’s holding it back.
Research Newsletter
Each week the 21Shares Research team will publish our data-driven insights into the crypto asset world through this newsletter. Please direct any comments, questions, and words of feedback to research@21shares.com
Disclaimer
The information provided does not constitute a prospectus or other offering material and does not contain or constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy securities in any jurisdiction. Some of the information published herein may contain forward-looking statements. Readers are cautioned that any such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks and uncertainties and that actual results may differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements as a result of various factors. The information contained herein may not be considered as economic, legal, tax or other advice and users are cautioned to base investment decisions or other decisions solely on the content hereof.
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