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Market overreacts to Iran sanction lift

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ETF Securities Commodity Research - Market overreacts to Iran sanction lift. Sanctions placed on Iranian oil exports by the US and five other countries were lifted after the International Atomic Energy Agency found the country to be compliant with its nuclear agreement with the P5+1

ETF Securities Commodity Research – Market overreacts to Iran sanction lift. Sanctions placed on Iranian oil exports by the US and five other countries were lifted after the International Atomic Energy Agency found the country to be compliant with its nuclear agreement with the P5+1 (the permanent members of the United Nations Security Council–the United States, the United Kingdom, Russia, France, and China plus Germany), plus the European Union.

Iran expects to lift exports by 500,000 barrels immediately and plans to increase shipments by a further 500,000 barrels within months.

Despite Iran’s ambitions (which we admit could lead the country to ignore oil economics in pursuit of winning market share), the country’s dilapidated infrastructure is unlikely to support the export of more than 300,000 extra barrels of oil.

Iran does not have enough fields in operation. Bringing online fields that have been delayed since 2014 would at most allow for 400,000 additional barrels. Immediately injecting cash investments cannot bring that figure up without a very long delay (18 months at minimum and more likely 2-3 years to build new operational infrastructure)

Expanding Iranian production significantly will require the build-out of more infrastructure, which would require the assistance of international oil companies. In an era of low oil prices and global oil capex cuts, the appetite to get involved is likely to fall short of expectations.

Iran will encounter difficulty in marketing its oil. The sanction lift is limited, especially with regard to US corporate involvement. US companies, including banks, insurers, oil companies or any US national cannot be involved in the selling of Iranian oil or the procurement of infrastructure. Sales of Iranian oil cannot take place using

US dollars. While European companies have more flexibility, their close ties with the US pose challenges. Had oil prices been higher, Iran’s strategy would have been to offer deep discounts on price to sell to countries like India to compensate for the increased complexity of dealing with its oil. But with oil prices so low, there is little potential for discounting.

Any expansion on Iranian oil production as a result of the sanction lift will not be picked up in today’s OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report and the earliest point in which we will have any concrete data on production and export increases will be on the 10 February report. We believe that the market will be disappointed with the outcome.

Saudi Arabia’s strategy to increase market share by depressing oil prices is working, judging by the size of the announced energy capex cuts in high-cost producing countries. We believe that by OPEC’s 2nd June 2016 meeting, Saudi Arabia will soften its tone and prepare the market for lower production (although little agreement to cut OPEC production will take place at that meeting).

Demand has meanwhile been recovering strongly in an era of low prices. IEA expects oil demand to rise to 96.71 mb/d by Q4 2016 from 95.28mb/d in Q4 2015. As global capex cuts start to bite, non-OPEC oil production is likely to fall. Factoring in a generous 1mn barrel increase in Iranian exports, would still mean that the market is likely to be in a small deficit by the end of the year.

As the oil market moves back toward balance, prices will likely recover. But we believe that the disappointment around Iran’s ability to ramp up exports will hit the market earlier and reverse the sharp decline we have seen in recent days.

Download the complete report (.pdf)

For more information contact

ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E info@etfsecurities.com

Important Information

This communication has been issued and approved for the purpose of section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (“ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (the “FCA”).

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Börshandlade produkter som ger exponering mot Sui

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I denna text tittar vi närmare på olika börshandlade produkter som ger exponering mot Sui. Precis som för många andra kryptovalutor och tokens finns det flera olika börshandlade produkter som spårar Sui. Vi har identifierar tre stycken sådana produkter.

I denna text tittar vi närmare på olika börshandlade produkter som ger exponering mot Sui. Precis som för många andra kryptovalutor och tokens finns det flera olika börshandlade produkter som spårar Sui. Vi har identifierar tre stycken sådana produkter.

De olika produkterna skiljer sig en del åt, en del av emittenter av ETPer arbetar med så kallad staking för vissa kryptovalutor, vilket gör att förvaltningsavgiften kan pressas ned. Det är emellertid inte så att alla dessa börshandlade produkter är identiska varför det är viktigt att läsa på.

Börshandlade produkter som ger exponering mot Sui

Precis som för många andra kryptovalutor och tokens finns det flera olika börshandlade produkter som spårar Sui. Det finns faktiskt tre börshandlad produkter som är noterade på svenska börser vilket gör att den som vill handla med dessa slipper växlingsavgifterna, något som kan vara skönt om det gäller upprepade transaktioner i olika riktningar.

För ytterligare information om respektive ETP klicka på kortnamnet i tabellen nedan.

NamnTickerValutaUtlåningStakingISINAvgift
21Shares Sui Staking ETPASUIUSDNejJaCH13606121592,50%
Valour Sui (SUI) SEKValour Sui (SUI) SEKSEKNejNejCH12136046011,90%
VanEck Sui ETNVSUIUSDNejNejDE000A4A5Z721,50%

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The Dogecoin case study: How to value memecoins

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Dogecoin’s performance and staying power across multiple market cycles suggest it is not “just another one of those memecoins”.

Dogecoin’s performance and staying power across multiple market cycles suggest it is not “just another one of those memecoins”.

Over the past decade, DOGE has outperformed even Bitcoin, delivering over 133,000% in returns, nearly 1,000x BTC’s gains in the same period. Despite deep drawdowns during bear markets, Dogecoin has shown remarkable structural resilience.

Following each major rally, it has consistently formed higher lows, a pattern of long-term appreciation and compounding strength.

Historically, Dogecoin has closely mirrored Bitcoin’s movements, often peaking a few weeks after. While 2024 saw Bitcoin dominate headlines following landmark ETF approvals, DOGE still followed its trajectory, though it has yet to stage its typical delayed breakout.

As macro uncertainty continues to fade and momentum returns to the market, retail participation is likely to accelerate, setting up conditions in which Dogecoin has historically thrived.

At the same time, regulatory clarity around Dogecoin has improved. The SEC recently confirmed that most memecoins are not considered securities, comparing them to collectibles. Additionally, they clarified that proof-of-work rewards, like those earned from mining DOGE, also fall outside that scope. These developments further legitimize Dogecoin’s role in the ecosystem, potentially setting the stage for its next paw up, especially as it now holds a firm base around $0.17, nearly 3x its pre-rally level before reaching a new all-time high in the last cycle.

In addition to its long-term performance, Dogecoin stands out as an asset that behaves asymmetrically, offering investors a rare source of uncorrelated returns across both traditional and crypto portfolios. With an average correlation of just 15% to major assets, DOGE’s price action remains largely detached from broader macroeconomic trends, reinforcing its value as a true diversification tool.

Dogecoin demonstrates significant independence within the crypto market, with its correlation to Bitcoin at only 31% and to Ethereum at 37%. This divergence stems from unique capital flow dynamics, where higher-beta assets like DOGE tend to rally after blue-chip crypto assets reach major milestones.

While Bitcoin slowly evolves into a digital store of value and Ethereum powers decentralized infrastructure, Dogecoin remains largely a cultural asset, thriving on narrative momentum and crowd psychology, offering explosive upside when risk appetite surges.

For investors seeking an upside without mirroring the behavior of core holdings, Dogecoin offers a compelling case. Its ability to decouple from market trends while tapping into more speculative surges makes it a powerful, though unconventional, addition to a portfolio with wildcard potential.

Research Newsletter

Each week the 21Shares Research team will publish our data-driven insights into the crypto asset world through this newsletter. Please direct any comments, questions, and words of feedback to research@21shares.com

Disclaimer

The information provided does not constitute a prospectus or other offering material and does not contain or constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy securities in any jurisdiction. Some of the information published herein may contain forward-looking statements. Readers are cautioned that any such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks and uncertainties and that actual results may differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements as a result of various factors. The information contained herein may not be considered as economic, legal, tax or other advice and users are cautioned to base investment decisions or other decisions solely on the content hereof.

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MWOA ETF köper aktier i industriföretag

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Amundi S&P Global Industrials ESG UCITS ETF EUR (D) (MWOA ETF) med ISIN IE00026BEVM6, försöker följa S&P Developed Ex-Korea LargeMidCap Sustainability Enhanced Industrials index. Det S&P-utvecklade ex-Korea LargeMidCap Sustainability Enhanced Industrials-indexet spårar industrisektorn. Aktierna som ingår filtreras enligt ESG-kriterier (miljö, social och bolagsstyrning).

Amundi S&P Global Industrials ESG UCITS ETF EUR (D) (MWOA ETF) med ISIN IE00026BEVM6, försöker följa S&P Developed Ex-Korea LargeMidCap Sustainability Enhanced Industrials index. Det S&P-utvecklade ex-Korea LargeMidCap Sustainability Enhanced Industrials-indexet spårar industrisektorn. Aktierna som ingår filtreras enligt ESG-kriterier (miljö, social och bolagsstyrning).

Den börshandlade fondens TER (total cost ratio) uppgår till 0,18 % p.a. Amundi S&P Global Industrials ESG UCITS ETF EUR (D) är den billigaste ETF som följer S&P Developed Ex-Korea LargeMidCap Sustainability Enhanced Industrials index. ETFen replikerar det underliggande indexets prestanda genom full replikering (köper alla indexbeståndsdelar). Utdelningarna i denna ETF delas ut till investerarna (Årligen).

Amundi S&P Global Industrials ESG UCITS ETF EUR (D) är en mycket liten ETF med 4 miljoner euro under förvaltning. ETFen lanserades den 20 september 2022 och har sin hemvist i Irland.

Investeringsmål

AMUNDI S&P GLOBAL INDUSTRIALS ESG UCITS ETF DR – EUR (D) försöker replikera, så nära som möjligt, resultatet av S&P Developed Ex-Korea LargeMidCap Sustainability Enhanced Industrials Index (Netto Total Return Index). Denna ETF har exponering mot stora och medelstora företag i utvecklade länder. Den innehåller uteslutningskriterier för tobak, kontroversiella vapen, civila och militära handeldvapen, termiskt kol, olja och gas (inkl. Arctic Oil & Gas), oljesand, skiffergas. Den är också utformad för att välja ut och omvikta företag för att tillsammans förbättra hållbarhet och ESG-profiler, uppfylla miljömål och minska koldioxidavtrycket.

Handla MWOA ETF

Amundi S&P Global Industrials ESG UCITS ETF EUR (D) (MWOA ETF) är en europeisk börshandlad fond. Denna fond handlas på flera olika börser, till exempel Deutsche Boerse Xetra.

Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETF genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel DEGIRONordnet, Aktieinvest och Avanza.

Börsnoteringar

BörsValutaKortnamn
gettexEURWELT
XETRAUSDMWOA
XETRAEURWELT

Största innehav

Denna fond använder fysisk replikering för att spåra indexets prestanda.

NamnValutaVikt %Sektor
SCHNEIDER ELECT SEEUR4.22 %Industri
SIEMENS AG-REGEUR4.10 %Industri
GENERAL ELECTRIC COUSD3.93 %Industri
UNION PACIFIC CORPUSD3.19 %Industri
CATERPILLAR INCUSD3.03 %Industri
UBER TECHNOLOGIES INCUSD2.50 %Industri
EATON CORP PLCUSD2.25 %Industri
RELX PLCGBP2.24 %Industri
RECRUIT HOLDINGS CO LTDJPY2.06 %Industri
TRANE TECHNOLOGIES PLCUSD1.99 %Industri

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