Global ETP sector records high net inflows despite volatile markets during September; ETFs on European equity indices continue to be in high demand; Bond ETFs registered slight inflows; conversely investors’ reaction to Japan, Emerging Markets and Commodities ETPs was net outflows in September.
European Monthly ETF Market Review; Deutsche Bank Markets Research
Data as at: 30.09.2015 Global ETP Market In and Outflows:
Despite volatile market conditions over the past month, the global ETP industry recorded high inflows. After net inflows of virtually US dollar 21.2 billion in August, the September figure was US dollar 34.4 billion. The industry now manages US Dollar 2.7 trillion (p. 1, 24).
The American ETP market had another strong month. Following US dollar 1.5 billion in August, net inflows during September increased to almost US dollar 20 billion. More than one half of this figure, US dollar 10.9 billion, was secured by Equity ETFs. Considerable inflows for ETFs on European equity indices continued amounting to US dollar 1.3 billion. As such these inflows total more than US dollar 30.1 billion since the start of the year. In September Bond ETFs listed on the American market registered inflows of US dollar 9.6 billion. By contrast, Commodity ETP investors withdrew US dollar 0.4 billion. Since the beginning of the year, US ETP inflows total US dollar 144 billion (p. 3, 24).
Similarly, the Asian ETP market had a strong month with net inflows of US dollar 12.3 billion. In this region, Equity ETFs attracted net inflows of US dollar 7.5 billion and almost US dollar five billion for Bond ETFs (p. 24). European ETF Market In and OutflowsEquities:
Following net inflows totaling euro 9.7 billion in August, net inflows registered by the European ETF market in September fell to euro 1.9 billion. In total, the European ETF industry currently manages euro 413 billion (p. 14, 24).
The bulk of ETF net inflows at euro 1.5 billion was directed to the equity market. However, the previous month inflows had amounted to euro 7.4 billion. Once again, Equity ETFs on industrialized markets were particularly popular with these securing euro 1.3 billion net. The clear favorite continued to be the European equity market and as such ETFs on broad European equity indices attracted euro 1.6 billion during September. Since the start of the year, inflows in this segment total euro 20 billion (p. 1, 24, 26).
By contrast, investors in Emerging Markets ETFs withdrew more than euro 0.2 billion net. Similarly ETFs on the Japanese equity market were on the losing side with investors withdrawing in September to the tune of euro 0.7 billion (p. 1, 3, 24).
At a sector level, there were clear divergences in September. While investors withdrew money from the consumer-related arena and healthcare, ETFs on the financial and energy sectors were in demand. Both of these registered net inflows of some euro 0.2 billion (p. 3, 25).
ETFs that pursue quantitative strategies also recorded net inflows amounting to almost euro 0.4 billion. Value ETFs registered inflows amounting to euro 0.14 billion (p. 25).
Bonds
Bond ETFs continued their positive trend from previous months. Following net inflows amounting to euro 2.4 billion in August, these products registered euro 0.7 billion in September (p. 1, 24).
Within the Bond segment, the highest inflows were registered by ETFs focused on Investment Grade bonds attracting euro 1.1 billion in September. By contrast, for the second month in succession, high-yield papers experienced outflows of euro 0.4 billion. Since the beginning of 2015, ETF investors have demonstrated a clear preference for Investment Grade over High-Yield. Investment Grade papers recorded euro 17.5 billion 2015 year to date, yet High-Yield papers attracted only euro 3.3 billion (p. 1, 3).
Commodities
After inflows approaching euro 0.4 billion in August, Commodities ETPs registered outflows totaling euro 0.25 billion in September (page 1, 24).
The highest outflows were observed in Gold products with investors withdrawing euro 0.2 billion net (page 1, 28). Most Popular Indices
The most popular equity indices with investors in September included broadly diversified indices on the European market, such as the EuroStoxx 50 and the STOXX 600. In addition, ETFs on the Dax, the US energy sector, the S&P 500 as well as the MSCI World were all in demand (p. 29).
For Bonds, investors focused particularly on ETFs on sovereign bonds, most especially those with shorter remaining maturities. In addition, the db x-trackers II EONIA TR Index UCITSETF was one of the most popular ETFs during the past month (p. 29).
• Expanding Geopolitical Conflict Throws Crypto in Turmoil, Hong Kong ETFs Revive Hope
• Ethereum’s Most Anticipated Application of the Year is Live
Expanding Geopolitical Conflict Throws Crypto in Turmoil, Hong Kong ETFs Revive Hope
The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report released last Wednesday revealed a hotter-than-expected inflation rate of 3.5%, exceeding forecasts of 3.4%. This marks the fourth consecutive month where inflation has surpassed expectations, dimming hopes of rate cuts in the near future, resulting in a sustained high interest environment. This is further evidenced by interest rate futures currently pricing in just two rate cuts for the entirety of 2024, a significant shift from four months ago, when markets were predicting a more hawkish approach. Further, the conflict between Iran and Israel escalated more this weekend, as Iran launched a drone strike towards Israel, who are said to be potentially preparing for ‘retaliation’. This rise in geopolitical tensions coincided with a decline in the crypto market as Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) prices fell by 8.22% and 11.29% respectively.
That said, it’s worth remembering that Bitcoin is viewed as a flight to safety during geopolitical conflicts. For instance, BTC grew by almost 17% during Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. This was driven by the fact that the average Russian citizen was able to withdraw their capital out of banks promptly before the imposed sanctions. Similarly, Ukrainians leveraged Bitcoin’s decentralized nature to navigate the overall shutdown of their financial system, while leveraging it to resume raising donations, showcasing its value as a decentralized and globally accessible asset immune to disruptions.
However, Bitcoin’s response to Iran’s recent escalation may have been adverse. This is given the gravity and the complexity of the geopolitical situation and its potential to entangle several other actors into the conflict, potentially affecting a broader swath of the world, including global trade and economic stability. Nevertheless, Bitcoin’s properties uniquely position it to serve a dual function as both a risk-on and risk-off asset. This duality could explain why its behavior diverged from that of gold in recent days, facing a drawdown last week versus benefiting from Russia’s conflict in 2022, as shown below in Figure 1.
Figure 1: BTC vs Gold Performance in 2022 vs 2024 – On a Weekly Timeframe
Source: TradingView
Finally, while the industry showed signs of a tentative recovery following last week’s economic challenges, evidenced by BTC soaring to nearly $67K on Monday, it’s crucial to maintain vigilance and closely monitor Israel’s response as it could have additional repercussions on the global market. Bitcoin faces a pivotal week with the highly anticipated Bitcoin Halving event scheduled in just four days, which will cut the issuance of new BTC in half, further tightening its already limited supply. This scarcity narrative is often seen as a bullish signal, which potentially bolsters Bitcoin’s position as a store of value and a hedge against inflation, as investors seek refuge in the current environment.
Adding to the positive sentiment, the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) recently granted conditional approval for the launch of the first spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs. The investment vehicle could unlock up to $25B in demand from Chinese investors via the Southbound Stock Connect program, according to Matrixport. The approval could also expand BTC’s market penetration into the wealth management sector in Hong Kong valued at $1.15T. The combined effect of the halving and the ETF approvals could provide a much-needed boost to the industry’s current momentum. A trend which is evident in Figure 2 below, indicating that flows into BTC have remained positive since the beginning of the year.
Figure 2 – *BTC Monthly Balance Change vs BTC Monthly Issuance vs ETF Cumulative Flows
Source: Glassnode
*Monthly Balance Change includes different cohort of investors that hold >1, >10, >100, >1K BTC
Ethereum’s Most Anticipated Application of the Year is Live
EigenLayer, a protocol that allows ETH users to “re-stake” their existing staked ETH to validate the security of external networks known as Actively Validated Services (AVS), has finally deployed on mainnet. EigenLayer has been long anticipated as it enables capital efficiency by allowing users to earn additional yield on top of their ETH staking yield. Further, it allows younger protocols to borrow the security assurances of Ethereum. This is crucial, as it circumvents the need for non-established protocols to develop their own security measures from scratch. This translates to a more cost-efficient approach while simultaneously bolstering their decentralization, as newer projects can anchor their security to Ethereum’s.
By opting to earn additional yield, users subject themselves to heightened smart contract risks, as they become exposed to the vulnerabilities of both Ethereum and the additional protocol relying on its security. Further, a large portion of ETH could end up being “re-staked” in EigenLayer instead of just validating the security of Ethereum, creating a problem of misalignment. In simpler terms, some validators might focus on maximizing their profits by pursuing strategies that prioritize short-term gains over the long-term security of the network. Moreover, the growing enthusiasm for the protocol suggests that a significant portion of the crypto economy might rely on Ethereum’s security assurances. Currently, 14% of all staked ETH is being allocated towards Eigen’s re-staking strategy. The continuation of this trend could lead to centralization, posing a risk as Ethereum might inadvertently become a single point of failure over a longer time horizon.
Wide-spread slashing is another concern. In essence, if a substantial amount of ETH is restaked in a single protocol, then a slashing event due to malicious or unintended behavior could significantly impact honest ETH stakers. Thus, Eigen proposed a slashing committee, comprising esteemed ETH developers and trusted community members, empowered to veto such occurrences and safeguard Ethereum’s integrity.
The final risk concerns a new breed of tokens known as Liquid Restaking Tokens (LRTs), which operate atop EigenLayer. LRTs, akin to Liquid Staking Tokens (LSTs) issued by the established Lido protocol in 2021, aim to unlock similar capital efficiency by allowing users to use their re-staked ETH as collateral for lending and borrowing. Given that restaked ETH in Eigen can’t be used across DeFi platforms, users have turned to LRT protocols like Ether.fi and Renzo to seek higher levels of capital flexibility, with their restaked assets. For context, LRTs grew exponentially by a factor of 28 throughout Q1, increasing from nearly 100K units to the current figure of 2.8M, as can be seen below in Figure 3, showing its soaring demand.
Figure 3 – Growth of Liquid Restaking Tokens (LRTs) on EigenLayer
Source: @yulia_is_here on Dune
While LRTs can offer amplified gains through leveraged lending, they can also exacerbate losses, potentially increasing systemic risk in market downturns. Since some LRT protocols can’t offer withdrawal yet, users may be forced to swap their LRT token into ETH on thinly traded secondary markets and intensify their drawdowns.
All in all, the impact of Eigenlayer is not to be understated, as the excitement surrounding the new primitive has propelled it to become the second largest protocol on Ethereum by Total Value Locked (TVL), boasting an impressive $12.6B. This already eclipses the TVL of established players like Solana by fourfold, highlighting the immense potential and adoption that EigenLayer is witnessing despite its brief existence. Further, the excitement building up to its launch since they unveiled their roadmap in March has propelled the Ethereum validator entry queue to its highest level since September. The queue now necessitates a minimum waiting period of ~12 days before new validators can join the network, as seen below in Figure 4. Nevertheless, keep an eye out as we prepare to release a more in-depth exploration of EigenLayer risks over the coming weeks.
Figure 4: Ethereum Validator Entry Queue in Days
Source: ValidatorQueue
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Each week the 21Shares Research team will publish our data-driven insights into the crypto asset world through this newsletter. Please direct any comments, questions, and words of feedback to research@21shares.com
Disclaimer
The information provided does not constitute a prospectus or other offering material and does not contain or constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy securities in any jurisdiction. Some of the information published herein may contain forward-looking statements. Readers are cautioned that any such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks and uncertainties and that actual results may differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements as a result of various factors. The information contained herein may not be considered as economic, legal, tax or other advice and users are cautioned to base investment decisions or other decisions solely on the content hereof.
HSBC FTSE EPRA NAREIT Developed UCITSETF USD (Acc) (H4Z7 ETF) med ISIN IE000G6GSP88, försöker följa FTSE EPRA/NAREIT Developed-indexet. FTSE EPRA/NAREIT Developed Index följer de största fastighetsbolagen på världens utvecklade aktiemarknader.
Den börshandlade fondens TER (total cost ratio) uppgår till 0,24 % p.a. HSBC FTSE EPRA NAREIT Developed UCITSETF USD (Acc) är den billigaste ETF som följer FTSE EPRA/NAREIT Developed-index. Denna ETF replikerar det underliggande indexets prestanda genom full replikering (köper alla indexbeståndsdelar). Utdelningarna i ETFen ackumuleras och återinvesteras.
HSBC FTSE EPRA NAREIT Developed UCITSETF USD (Acc) är en liten ETF med tillgångar på 38 miljoner euro under förvaltning. Denna ETF lanserades den 19 juli 2022 och har sin hemvist i Irland.
Investeringsmål
Fonden strävar efter att så nära som möjligt följa avkastningen för FTSE EPRA NAREIT Developed Index (”Indexet”). Fonden kommer att investera i eller få exponering mot aktier i företag som utgör indexet.
Investeringspolicy
Indexet består av de största börsnoterade fastighetsbolagen och real estate investment trusts (REITS) på världens utvecklade aktiemarknader, enligt definitionen av indexleverantören. Fonden kommer att förvaltas passivt och har som mål att investera i aktierna av företagen i i stort sett samma andel som i Index. Det kan dock finnas omständigheter då det inte är möjligt eller praktiskt för fonden att investera i alla indexets beståndsdelar.
Om fonden inte kan investera direkt i de företag som utgör indexet kan den få exponering genom att använda andra investeringar som depåbevis, derivat eller fonder. Fonden kan investera upp till 35 % av sina tillgångar i värdepapper från en enda emittent under exceptionella marknadsförhållanden. Fonden kan investera upp till 10 % av sina tillgångar i totalavkastningsswappar och kontrakt för skillnad. Fonden kan investera upp till 10 % av sina tillgångar i andra fonder, inklusive HSBC-fonder.
Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETF genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel DEGIRO, Nordnet, Aktieinvest och Avanza.
ETFGI, ett ledande oberoende forsknings- och konsultföretag som täcker trender i det globala ETF-ekosystemet, rapporterar att ETFmarknaden i Europa firar sitt 24-årsjubileum med rekordtillgångar på nästan 2 biljoner US-dollar. De första europanoterade ETF:erna gjorde sin debut den 11 april 2000. Dessa två ETFer var baserade på Euro Stoxx 50– och Stoxx Europe 50-indexen, och de var noterade på Deutsche Boerse i Tyskland.
Tillgångar som investerats i ETF-branschen i Europa nådde rekordhöga 1,96 biljoner USD i slutet av mars. Under mars samlade ETF-branschen i Europa nettoinflöden på 11,02 miljarder USD, vilket ger årets nettoinflöden till 49,52 miljarder USD, enligt ETFGIs mars 2024 europeiska ETFer och ETPers industrilandskapsrapport, den månatliga rapporten som är en del av en årlig betald forskningsprenumerationstjänst. (Alla dollarvärden i USD om inget annat anges.)
Höjdpunkter
Tillgångar som investerats på ETFmarknaden i Europa nådde ett rekord på 1,96 Tn i slutet av mars och slog det tidigare rekordet på 1,90 Tn i slutet av februari 2024.
Tillgångarna ökade med 7,8 % YTD 2024, från 1,82 Tn USD i slutet av 2023 till 1,96 Tn USD.
Nettoinflöden på 11,02 miljarder USD i mars 2024.
YTD nettoinflöden på 49,52 miljarder USD är tredje högsta någonsin efter YTD nettoinflöden på 59,30 miljarder USD 2021 och YTD nettoinflöden på 49,73 miljarder USD 2022.
Artonde månaden med på varandra följande nettoinflöden.
”S&P 500-indexet ökade med 3,22 % i mars och är upp 10,56 % YTD 2024. De utvecklade marknaderna exklusive det amerikanska indexet ökade med 3,62 % i mars och steg 5,26 % YTD 2024. Spanien (upp 10,72 %) och Italien (upp 6,34 %) såg de största ökningarna bland de utvecklade marknaderna i mars. Emerging markets-indexet ökade med 1,50 % under mars och steg 2,08 % YTD 2024. Peru (upp 10,27 %) och Columbia (upp 8,19 %) såg de största ökningarna bland tillväxtmarknaderna i mars”, enligt Deborah Fuhr, managing partner, grundare och ägare av ETFGI.
Tillgångstillväxt i ETF-branschen i slutet av mars
Källa: ETFGI
I slutet av mars hade ETFmarknaden i Europa 3 037 produkter, med 12 209 noteringar, tillgångar på $1,96 Tn, från 99 leverantörer listade på 29 börser i 24 länder.
Under mars samlade ETFer nettoinflöden till 11,02 miljarder USD. Aktie-ETFer samlade nettoinflöden på 9,81 miljarder USD under mars, vilket förde YTD nettoinflöden till 39,30 miljarder USD, högre än 19,38 miljarder USD i nettoinflöden av eget kapital YTD 2023. Ränte-ETFer rapporterade nettoinflöden på 719,00 USD YTD under 1 mars, vilket gav 25 USD nettoinflöden. miljarder, lägre än 15,49 miljarder USD i nettoinflöden YTD år 2023. Råvaru-ETFer rapporterade nettoutflöden på 75,35 miljoner USD under mars, vilket förde YTD nettoutflöden till 2,32 miljarder USD, lägre än 1,67 miljarder USD i nettoinflöden YTD 2023. på 670,27 miljoner USD under månaden, vilket samlade ett nettoinflöde för året i Europa på 2,33 miljarder USD, högre än 2,17 miljarder USD i nettoinflöden YTD 2023.
Betydande inflöden kan tillskrivas de 20 bästa ETFerna av nya nettotillgångar, som samlat in 9,63 miljarder USD under mars. iShares Core S&P 500 UCITSETF – Acc (CSSPX SW) samlade in 918,91 miljoner USD, det största enskilda nettoinflödet.
Topp 20 ETFer efter nettoinflöden i mars 2024: Europa
Amundi S&P 500 Climate Net Zero Ambition PAB UCITSETF
ZPA5 GY
3,965.66
925.46
320.42
JPMorgan US Research Enhanced Index Equity ESG UCITSETF – Acc
JREU LN
7,047.30
1,230.55
315.09
Källa ETFGI
De 10 bästa ETPerna av nya nettotillgångar samlade ihop 1,69 miljarder USD under mars. WisdomTree Physical Silver – Acc (PHAG LN) samlade in 832,90 miljoner USD, det största enskilda nettoinflödet.
Topp 10 ETPer efter nettoinflöden i mars 2024: Europa