Nyheter
Energy ETPs all the rage
ETF Securities Commodity Research: Review of 2015 Commodity ETP Flows Energy ETPs all the rage
- Bargain hunters drive strong energy ETC inflows defying the oil price slide of 2015
- Precious metal ETP outflows cast a shadow in 2015 weighed by the stronger dollar and the indecisiveness of the Fed.
- Steady rise of inflows over the course of H2 2015 into diversified basket ETPs underpin hopes of a commodity turnaround
Download the complete report (.pdf)
2015 will be remembered as one of the most volatile years for commodities, facing the repercussions of a structural slowdown in China, rising geopolitical risks and the Volkswagen emissions scandal. Asset under management (AUM) in commodity ETPs ended the year lower owing to a significant price impact of -20% and a meagre -1% of flows. Redemptions in gold ETPs were the largest sector contributor to the decline in AUM. In contrast, energy ETPs continued to accumulate assets, as investor inflows surged by 407%, more than offsetting the energy price decline.
(Click to enlarge)
Commodity flows by sector
Commodity ETP flows during the course of the year were extremely uneven. March, April, June and July experienced outflows of nearly US$2.4bn, while the remaining months saw positive inflows. The second half of the year witnessed a steady rise of inflows into diversified baskets, highlighting investor’s preference for strategic portfolio diversification against a backdrop of multi-year low prices.
Outflows were at their heaviest in March 2015, driven mainly by precious metals. Gold in particular, bore the brunt of the US rate hike speculation after robust jobs numbers sent the US dollar higher. Optimism about the global recovery spurred by monetary easing from China and rising sentiment over Greece’s third bailout package reduced gold’s safe haven status, leading to outflows from precious metal ETPs in June and July. As speculation of the first US rate hike in years gained precedence and came to fruition in December, outflows from gold ETPs led the pace of declines in precious metal ETPs.
October faced the onslaught of the Volkswagen emission scandal that impacted palladium (known for its use in gasoline auto catalysts) favourably but dented sentiment for platinum (known for its use in diesel auto catalysts). Negative sentiment emanating from the emissions scandal has underlined a clear disconnect between rising auto sales in Europe and US and plunging prices of platinum group metals known for their majority of use in pollution abatement technology.
Energy ETPs accounted for majority of the outflows in April and May, owing to profit taking and uncertainty over the potential ramp up of oil production from Iran. Furthermore OPECs affirmation of its production ceiling of 30mn barrels per day added to withdrawals from energy ETPs in June. Speculation over production cuts by OPEC and downward revisions in oil output gained precedence in August, driving consistent positive energy ETP flows.
(Click to enlarge)
Interestingly, global production cuts by miners, coupled with an 18% rise in copper imports by China in September buoyed sentiment towards copper in H2 2015. In October a rise in outflows from short copper ETPs marked the most aggressive cut in short ETP positions since June 2014.
Vagaries of oil ETP flows vs price
Oil flows fluctuated over the course of the year, with bargain hunters building positions during oil price corrections. Outflows from WTI and Brent crude oil ETPs occurred from April to June after a build-up of positions in the first quarter of 2015, as oil prices rallied. Mid- year we again saw bargain hunters drive inflows into energy ETPs, despite the overhang of an oversupplied market and the prospect of the Iranian nuclear deal being approved. The WTI- Brent spread moved wider over the H2 of 2015, reaching nearly US$8/bbl in late August/early September. The spread widened partly due to reduced Libyan supply resulting from unrest and escalations of tension in Syria spurring investors to take bullish bets on Brent crude. September was the only month that saw contrasting flows in Brent and WTI crude. Steep price declines in the last quarter of 2015 saw investors continue to pour funds into energy ETPs.
(Click to enlarge)
Broad commodity ETP Flows
With hopes pinned on a turn in the commodity cycle, we saw 50% rise in net flows head to broad diversified basket ETPs.
(Click to enlarge)
In terms of broad sector commodity ETP flows, the contrast between 2014 and 2015 is striking. Precious metal and energy ETP flows more than outpaced the prior year. It has to be noted that energy ETP creations rose by 147% in 2015. Meanwhile, industrial metal ETP flows fell by 210% compared to 2014, owing to concerns surrounding a slowing Chinese economy.
(Click to enlarge)
Few commodities were able to escape the global commodity market rout in 2015 and most of those that did saw price increases due to the positive effects of the El Nino-related weather problems. Agricultural commodities led by cocoa, cotton and sugar earned the top spots on the league table for best performing commodities in 2015. Sugar recorded a price rise of 32% from 23 Sep 2015 to the end of the year owing to the ongoing wet weather in Brazil, the El-Nino related drought in India in the summer and production problems in Thailand. On the other hand the strong El-Nino was responsible for the record warm December experienced across the United States and Europe and added to downward price pressure in the energy sector in the second half of 2015.
Stock-exchange traded turnover in commodity ETPs started the year at a record high of US $4.6bn with energy ETPs remaining the key driver. This level tapered off over the year and peaked again in July owing largely to precious metal ETPs. Gold suffered the largest turnover as market sentiment towards the yellow metal started to wane in response to rising lead indicators of growth in US and Europe coupled with net long positioning in gold falling to its lowest level since June 2013.
(Click to enlarge)
For more information contact
ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E info@etfsecurities.com
Important Information
General
This communication has been issued and approved for the purpose of section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (“ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (the “FCA”).
The information contained in this communication is for your general information only and is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investments may go down in value. This document is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares or securities in the United States or any province or territory thereof. Neither this document nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States.
Nyheter
Ny aktie-ETF från Amundi på Xetra tillgång till en brett diversifierad aktieportfölj av ESG-företag med valutasäkring
• The SEC has just approved the spot Ethereum ETFs in the US – we expect approximately 1.65 bn USD potential net inflows into US Ethereum ETFs 3 months after trading launch
• If we assumed the historical ”performance multiplier” of 6.15 to Ethereum flows to be true, then a ~15% increase in global Ethereum ETF AuM would be associated with ~92% performance
• The approval marks a significant shift in sentiment within the SEC and among US regulators in general but US investors still received inferior investment vehicles compared to European vehicles
6.5 years
The SEC has just approved spot Ethereum ETFs for trading in the US.
Although the exact date of trading launch is unknown and could take a few months, this approval marks a significant shift in sentiment within the SEC and US regulators in general.
The Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE) was launched on 14 December 2017. It was the first investment vehicle that allowed professional investors to gain exposure to the second largest cryptoasset – Ethereum.
Nearly 6.5 years later, US investors finally have a more efficient investment vehicle to participate in Ethereum’s performance.
US ETF issuers made last-minute adjustments to their 19b-4 filings to meet the final deadline for the SEC’s decision on VanEck’s spot Ethereum ETF application, which was due on 23 May.
Bloomberg ETF analysts had previously commented that approval could come as early as Wednesday this week, beating consensus expectations for a later approval date. Other applicants included the same companies that applied for a spot bitcoin ETF previously, such as iShares and Fidelity.
The sudden increase in approval odds caught many by surprise, as Bloomberg ETF analysts unexpectedly raised their approval odds from 25% to 75% after the SEC asked exchanges to expedite their 19b-4 filings. Meanwhile, the odds of approval by the end of May on popular betting sites also jumped to over 50%, up from 10% just a few days earlier.
This unexpected rise in approval odds also surprised Ethereum futures short sellers, causing short liquidations in Ethereum futures contracts to surge to their highest level since March.
This caused the price of Ethereum to jump more than 10% in a matter of hours,
reversing much of its underperformance against bitcoin this year.
So, the market had already started to anticipate a potential approval.
But what’s next?
How many fund flows should we expect?
Many market observers have tried to guide down expectations for an Ethereum ETF trading launch.
The reason is that the Ethereum spot ETF approval is coming after a bonanza in fund flows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs which is why Bloomberg ETF analysts expect only around 10%-15% of Bitcoin ETF flows to flow into Ethereum ETFs.
At the time of writing, US spot Bitcoin ETFs have already seen cumulative net fund inflows in the amount of +13.2 bn USD since trading launch on the 11th of January 2024.
12.5% of that amount would imply approximately 1.65 bn USD potential net inflows into US Ethereum ETFs.
This amount would currently be equivalent to ~15% of current global Ethereum ETP assets-under-management (AuM) or around 0.7% of Ethereum’s realized cap, i.e. the amount invested on-chain.
What could be the price effect of this approval?
Nonetheless, this amount of capital could potentially still have a very significant impact on Ethereum’s performance going forward.
The reason is that Ethereum’s performance has shown a significantly higher sensitivity to global ETP flows than Bitcoin in the past.
While Bitcoin’s performance sensitivity to global ETP flows was around ~1.0, Ethereum’s performance has shown an average sensitivity of around 6.15 to global ETP flows in the past.
In other words, an increase of global ETH ETP AuM by 1% per week was associated with an average ETH/USD performance of 6.15% per week.
Now, if we assumed the abovementioned ”multiplier” of 6.15 to be true, then a ~15% increase in global Ethereum ETF AuM would be associated with ~92% performance!
That being said, the sensitivity of Ethereum’s performance to weekly ETP flows can vary significantly over time and has been around ~10.5 more recently.
As a caveat, keep in mind that correlation does not imply causation and that higher net inflows could possibly not cause increases in price.
More specifically, we estimate that global Ethereum ETP flows could only explain around 19.6% in the variation of Ethereum over the past 6 months. So, other factors such as macro or coin-specific factors have played a larger role.
What’s special about these Ethereum ETFs?
The approval marks a significant shift in sentiment within the SEC and US regulators more general. The recent passing of the “crypto bill” in the US senate has demonstrated that there is bipartisan consensus on the importance of cryptoassets for the United States.
The fact that the Trump campaign has recently started accepting crypto donations for campaign finance speaks volumes in this regard as Trump had personally shown a rather anti-crypto stance in the past.
Thus, viewed more broadly within the context of recent domestic political developments in the US, this approval could be evidence of a more mainstream acceptance of cryptoassets as a legitimate asset class.
However, US investors still receive a suboptimal investment vehicle for Ethereum:
The creation-redemption mechanism is still not done in kind and staking has not been allowed within the filings. Thus, US investors won’t be able to fully capture Ethereum’s total return profile via staking returns that currently amount to around 3.2% p.a.
European investors are once again better served with products that allow investors to participate in these total returns such as the ETC Group Ethereum Staking ETP.
Bottom Line
• The SEC has just approved the spot Ethereum ETFs in the US – we expect approximately 1.65 bn USD potential net inflows into US Ethereum ETFs 3 months after trading launch
• If we assumed the historical ”performance multiplier” of 6.15 to Ethereum flows to be true, then a ~15% increase in global Ethereum ETF AuM would be associated with ~92% performance
• The approval marks a significant shift in sentiment within the SEC and among US regulators in general but US investors still received inferior investment vehicles compared to European vehicles
This is not investment advice. Capital at risk. Read the full disclaimer
© ETC Group 2019-2024 | All rights reserved
Ny aktie-ETF från Amundi på Xetra tillgång till en brett diversifierad aktieportfölj av ESG-företag med valutasäkring
DGRB ETF investerar i amerikanska utdelningsaktier och valutasäkras i pund
Crypto Market Espresso | 23. May 2024
Ny aktiv ETF från First Trust på Xetra
JSUD ETF köper amerikanska företag som följer Parisavtalet
Endast en tredjedel av brittiska privatinvesterare har hört talas om ansvarsfulla investeringar eller ESG
Sveriges enda riktiga råvarufond har öppnat
Vilken är den bästa fond som följer Nasdaq-100?
De mest populära börshandlade fonderna april 2024
Några av de bästa guldfonderna
-
Nyheter2 veckor sedanEndast en tredjedel av brittiska privatinvesterare har hört talas om ansvarsfulla investeringar eller ESG
-
Nyheter2 veckor sedanSveriges enda riktiga råvarufond har öppnat
-
Nyheter4 veckor sedanVilken är den bästa fond som följer Nasdaq-100?
-
Nyheter4 veckor sedanDe mest populära börshandlade fonderna april 2024
-
Nyheter3 veckor sedanNågra av de bästa guldfonderna
-
Nyheter5 dagar sedanUtdelning i XACT Norden Högutdelande (maj)
-
Nyheter3 veckor sedan1VET ETP ger exponering mot Ethereum tillsammans med extra intäkter
-
Nyheter3 veckor sedanBTC1 ETP spårar priset på kryptovalutan Bitcoin
