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Crypto Market Compass | 13. May 2024

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Crypto Market Compass | 13. May 2024 Bitcoin continues to consolidate above 60k USD as the market is gradually entering dull seasonality from June onwards

• Bitcoin continues to consolidate above 60k USD as the market is gradually entering dull seasonality from June onwards

• Our in-house “Cryptoasset Sentiment Indicator” continues to hover around neutral levels in sentiment

• Unprofitable BTC miners are coming under pressure following the Halving judging by the recent decline in network hash rate

Chart of the Week

Performance

Last week, cryptoassets underperformed traditional financial assets like equities or Gold as Bitcoin continued to consolidate above 60k USD.

It appears as if the market is currently lacking new positive catalysts after the US and Hong Kong spot ETF approvals and the Bitcoin Halving. Moreover, we are gradually entering dull seasonality from June onwards as the summer months have historically shown below-average returns for Bitcoin in the past.

Moreover, increasing US recession risks towards the summer as outlined in our latest monthly report could provide a temporary headwind for Bitcoin and cryptoassets as our own analyses still imply that Bitcoin’s performance continues to be dominated by global growth expectations.

Our base case is that the market continues to consolidate until macro risks have cleared/materialized and the positive performance effects from the Halving start to kick in around August 2024 as outlined in our special report about the Halving.

In the meantime, unprofitable BTC miners could come under pressure and there seems to be first evidence of that happening judging by the recent decline in network hash rate (Chart-of-the-Week). More specifically, the 7-day moving average of
Bitcoin’s hash rate has already declined by around -8% since the Halving took place on the 20 th of April.

In addition, last week also saw the 4th negative difficulty adjustment this year as it took BTC miners on average longer than 10 minutes to find the correct hash for a block. This is additional evidence that the network hash rate has been reduced.

In fact, the average BTC miner’s revenue has declined significantly as both the block subsidy and transaction fees have declined significantly since the Halving. Daily aggregate miner revenues have dropped to around ~28 mn USD, down from ~72 mn USD at the time of the Halving. That being said, there is no sign of significant distribution of bitcoins by BTC miners yet based on aggregate BTC miner balances.

There have been no significant transfers from miner wallets to exchange wallets either more recently.

Increasing selling pressure by BTC miners could be a headwind in the short term.

Furthermore, selling pressure could also materialize via fund outflows from crypto ETPs as traditional investors could distribute some of their crypto holdings for liquidity reasons in case of increasing US recession risks mentioned above.

This is something that we will continue to monitor over the coming weeks.

On a positive note, overall exchange inflows that are usually a good barometer for overall selling pressure have abated more recently and neither short- nor long-term holders are currently distributing coins in a significant way. Besides, global crypto ETPs still saw net inflows overall over the past week despite ongoing GBTC outflows in the US.

In general, among the top 10 crypto assets, Toncoin, BNB, and Solana were the relative outperformers.

However, overall altcoin outperformance vis-à-vis Bitcoin remained relatively low, with only around 40% of our tracked altcoins managing to outperform Bitcoin on a weekly basis.

Sentiment

Our in-house “Cryptoasset Sentiment Index” continues to hover around neutral levels in sentiment. The more recent correction has only led to a slight decrease in sentiment so far.

At the moment, 5 out of 15 indicators are above their short-term trend.

Last week, there were significant reversals to the downside in global crypto ETP fund flows and the Crypto Fear & Greed Index.

That being said, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index still signals ”Greed” again as of this morning.

Performance dispersion among cryptoassets has continued to remain low.

Altcoin outperformance vis-à-vis Bitcoin was still subdued, with around 40% of our tracked altcoins that have outperformed Bitcoin on a weekly basis. At the same time, Ethereum continued to underperform Bitcoin last week.

In general, increasing (decreasing) altcoin outperformance tends to be a sign of increasing (decreasing) risk appetite within cryptoasset markets.

Meanwhile, sentiment in traditional financial markets remains relatively elevated, judging by our own measure of Cross Asset Risk Appetite (CARA).

Fund Flows

Last week, we saw a slight reversal in global crypto ETPs with around +25.7 mn USD in net inflows, up from around -372.4 mn USD the week prior based on Bloomberg data.

Global Bitcoin ETPs saw net inflows of +92.5 mn USD of which +117.0 mn (net) were related to US spot Bitcoin ETFs alone. Hong Kong spot Bitcoin ETFs already experienced net outflows of around -40.9 mn USD last week according to data provided by Bloomberg.

The ETC Group Physical Bitcoin ETP (BTCE) also saw net outflows equivalent to -33.4 mn USD while the ETC Group Core Bitcoin ETP (BTC1) saw minor net inflows of +0.7 mn USD last week.

The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) continued to experience net outflows of approximately -171.1 mn USD last week while other major US spot Bitcoin ETFs were able to attract new capital, e.g. iShares’ IBIT with net inflows of around +48.2 mn USD.

In contrast to Bitcoin ETPs, Global Ethereum ETPs saw a decline in ETP flows last week, with net outflows of around -63.5 mn USD. This was mostly due to significant outflows from Hong Kong spot Ethereum ETFs that saw -46.5 mn USD in net outflows last week, according to data provided by Bloomberg.

In general, there seems to be an emerging pattern in crypto ETP fund flows that while global Bitcoin ETP flows continue to be dominated by US spot Bitcoin ETF flows, global Ethereum ETP fund flows are increasingly dominated by Hong Kong spot Ethereum ETF flows.

Meanwhile, the ETC Group Physical Ethereum ETP (ZETH) saw neither in- nor outflows (+/- 0 mn USD). The ETC Group Ethereum Staking ETP (ET32) experienced some net outflows (-1.5 mn USD) last week.

Besides, Altcoin ETPs ex Ethereum experienced only minor net inflows of around +5.7 mn USD last week.

Besides, Thematic & basket crypto ETPs experienced some net outflows of -9.0 mn USD, based on our calculations. The ETC Group MSCI Digital Assets Select 20 ETP (DA20) did experience neither in- nor outflows last week (+/- 0 mn USD).

Besides, the beta of global crypto hedge funds to Bitcoin over the last 20 trading days continued to increase to around 1.06. This implies that global crypto hedge funds have significantly increased their market exposure and have currently a slightly more than neutral exposure to Bitcoin.

On-Chain Data

As the market has rebounded from oversold levels at the beginning of May, on-chain data for Bitcoin remain somewhat mixed.

As mentioned above, unprofitable BTC miners could come under pressure and there seems to be first evidence of that happening judging by the recent decline in network hash rate (Chart-of-the-Week).

More specifically, the 7-day moving average of Bitcoin’s hash rate has already declined by around -8% since the Halving took place on the 20th of April.

In this context, the decline in active addresses to year-to-date lows appears to be somewhat concerning. On a positive note, overall network activity based on a variety of metrics still implies that Bitcoin’s network activity is still near all-time highs as the transaction count remains relatively high. This is not related to high inscription demand but related to genuine transaction demand.

Coming to Bitcoin’s hash rate, last week also saw the 4th negative difficulty adjustment this year as it took BTC miners on average longer than 10 minutes to find the correct hash for a block. This is additional evidence that the network hash rate has been reduced.

In fact, the average BTC miner’s revenue has declined significantly as both the block subsidy and transaction fees have declined significantly since the Halving. Daily aggregate miner revenues have dropped to around ~28 mn USD, down from ~72 mn USD at the time of the Halving.

That being said, there is no sign of significant distribution of bitcoins by BTC miners yet based on aggregate BTC miner balances. There have been no significant transfers from miner wallets to exchange wallets either more recently.

Increasing selling pressure by BTC miners could be a headwind in the short term.
Meanwhile, the increase in accumulation activity observed last week has started to decelerate a bit but is still comparatively high. Furthermore, whales continue to take coins off exchange on a net basis.

However, intraday net buying minus selling volumes on spot Bitcoin exchanges remained negative over the past week largely due to the deceleration in US spot Bitcoin ETF net inflows since March.

A renewed improvement in net buying volumes on spot exchanges is highly dependent on a resumption of higher flows into US and global Bitcoin ETP flows.

Futures, Options & Perpetuals

Last week, both BTC futures and perpetual open interest saw a slight increase in BTC-terms which seems to be related to a net increase in short open interest. In other words, BTC futures traders have started building up more downside exposure over the past week.

Meanwhile, both BTC short and long futures liquidations remained relatively low last week. The Bitcoin futures basis continued to move sideways last week. At the time of writing, the Bitcoin futures annualized basis rate stands at around 8.7% p.a.
Perpetual funding rates also remained slightly positive throughout the week.

Bitcoin options’ open interest decreased slightly last week as BTC option traders seem to have reduced their exposure of puts relative to calls. Relative put-call volume ratios remained well behaved last week.

However, the 25-delta BTC 1-month option skew increased slightly implying an increased demand for puts relative to calls.

BTC option implied volatilities have decreased slightly compared to the prior week. Implied volatilities of 1-month ATM Bitcoin options are currently at around 51.9% p.a., down from 53.1% p.a. the week prior.

Bottom Line

• Bitcoin continues to consolidate above 60k USD as the market is gradually entering dull seasonality from June onwards

• Our in-house “Cryptoasset Sentiment Indicator” continues to hover around neutral levels in sentiment

• Unprofitable BTC miners are coming under pressure following the Halving judging by the recent decline in network hash rate

To read our Crypto Market Compass in full, please click the button below:

This is not investment advice. Capital at risk. Read the full disclaimer

© ETC Group 2019-2024 | All rights reserved

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Crypto Market Espresso | 23. May 2024

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• The SEC has just approved the spot Ethereum ETFs in the US - we expect approximately 1.65 bn USD potential net inflows into US Ethereum ETFs 3 months after trading launch

• The SEC has just approved the spot Ethereum ETFs in the US – we expect approximately 1.65 bn USD potential net inflows into US Ethereum ETFs 3 months after trading launch

• If we assumed the historical ”performance multiplier” of 6.15 to Ethereum flows to be true, then a ~15% increase in global Ethereum ETF AuM would be associated with ~92% performance

• The approval marks a significant shift in sentiment within the SEC and among US regulators in general but US investors still received inferior investment vehicles compared to European vehicles

6.5 years

The SEC has just approved spot Ethereum ETFs for trading in the US.
Although the exact date of trading launch is unknown and could take a few months, this approval marks a significant shift in sentiment within the SEC and US regulators in general.

The Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE) was launched on 14 December 2017. It was the first investment vehicle that allowed professional investors to gain exposure to the second largest cryptoasset – Ethereum.

Nearly 6.5 years later, US investors finally have a more efficient investment vehicle to participate in Ethereum’s performance.

US ETF issuers made last-minute adjustments to their 19b-4 filings to meet the final deadline for the SEC’s decision on VanEck’s spot Ethereum ETF application, which was due on 23 May.

Bloomberg ETF analysts had previously commented that approval could come as early as Wednesday this week, beating consensus expectations for a later approval date. Other applicants included the same companies that applied for a spot bitcoin ETF previously, such as iShares and Fidelity.

The sudden increase in approval odds caught many by surprise, as Bloomberg ETF analysts unexpectedly raised their approval odds from 25% to 75% after the SEC asked exchanges to expedite their 19b-4 filings. Meanwhile, the odds of approval by the end of May on popular betting sites also jumped to over 50%, up from 10% just a few days earlier.

This unexpected rise in approval odds also surprised Ethereum futures short sellers, causing short liquidations in Ethereum futures contracts to surge to their highest level since March.

This caused the price of Ethereum to jump more than 10% in a matter of hours,
reversing much of its underperformance against bitcoin this year.

So, the market had already started to anticipate a potential approval.

But what’s next?

How many fund flows should we expect?

Many market observers have tried to guide down expectations for an Ethereum ETF trading launch.

The reason is that the Ethereum spot ETF approval is coming after a bonanza in fund flows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs which is why Bloomberg ETF analysts expect only around 10%-15% of Bitcoin ETF flows to flow into Ethereum ETFs.

At the time of writing, US spot Bitcoin ETFs have already seen cumulative net fund inflows in the amount of +13.2 bn USD since trading launch on the 11th of January 2024.

12.5% of that amount would imply approximately 1.65 bn USD potential net inflows into US Ethereum ETFs.

This amount would currently be equivalent to ~15% of current global Ethereum ETP assets-under-management (AuM) or around 0.7% of Ethereum’s realized cap, i.e. the amount invested on-chain.

What could be the price effect of this approval?

Nonetheless, this amount of capital could potentially still have a very significant impact on Ethereum’s performance going forward.

The reason is that Ethereum’s performance has shown a significantly higher sensitivity to global ETP flows than Bitcoin in the past.

While Bitcoin’s performance sensitivity to global ETP flows was around ~1.0, Ethereum’s performance has shown an average sensitivity of around 6.15 to global ETP flows in the past.

In other words, an increase of global ETH ETP AuM by 1% per week was associated with an average ETH/USD performance of 6.15% per week.

Now, if we assumed the abovementioned ”multiplier” of 6.15 to be true, then a ~15% increase in global Ethereum ETF AuM would be associated with ~92% performance!

That being said, the sensitivity of Ethereum’s performance to weekly ETP flows can vary significantly over time and has been around ~10.5 more recently.

As a caveat, keep in mind that correlation does not imply causation and that higher net inflows could possibly not cause increases in price.

More specifically, we estimate that global Ethereum ETP flows could only explain around 19.6% in the variation of Ethereum over the past 6 months. So, other factors such as macro or coin-specific factors have played a larger role.

What’s special about these Ethereum ETFs?

The approval marks a significant shift in sentiment within the SEC and US regulators more general. The recent passing of the “crypto bill” in the US senate has demonstrated that there is bipartisan consensus on the importance of cryptoassets for the United States.

The fact that the Trump campaign has recently started accepting crypto donations for campaign finance speaks volumes in this regard as Trump had personally shown a rather anti-crypto stance in the past.

Thus, viewed more broadly within the context of recent domestic political developments in the US, this approval could be evidence of a more mainstream acceptance of cryptoassets as a legitimate asset class.

However, US investors still receive a suboptimal investment vehicle for Ethereum:
The creation-redemption mechanism is still not done in kind and staking has not been allowed within the filings. Thus, US investors won’t be able to fully capture Ethereum’s total return profile via staking returns that currently amount to around 3.2% p.a.

European investors are once again better served with products that allow investors to participate in these total returns such as the ETC Group Ethereum Staking ETP.

Bottom Line

• The SEC has just approved the spot Ethereum ETFs in the US – we expect approximately 1.65 bn USD potential net inflows into US Ethereum ETFs 3 months after trading launch

• If we assumed the historical ”performance multiplier” of 6.15 to Ethereum flows to be true, then a ~15% increase in global Ethereum ETF AuM would be associated with ~92% performance

• The approval marks a significant shift in sentiment within the SEC and among US regulators in general but US investors still received inferior investment vehicles compared to European vehicles

This is not investment advice. Capital at risk. Read the full disclaimer

© ETC Group 2019-2024 | All rights reserved

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Ny aktiv ETF från First Trust på Xetra

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Från och med går handlas en ny börshandlad fond, en aktiv ETF från First Trust på Xetra och via handelsplatsen Börse Frankfurt.

Från och med går handlas en ny börshandlad fond, en aktiv ETF från First Trust på Xetra och via handelsplatsen Börse Frankfurt.

First Trust Vest U.S. Equity Moderate Buffer UCITS ETF – May (GMAY) driver en aktivt förvaltad investeringsstrategi med syftet att spåra resultatet för S&P 500 Index upp till ett fast uppsidatak. Samtidigt strävar fonden efter att minimera förluster (buffert) för de första 15-procentiga kursfallen i slutet av den definierade målperioden på ett kalenderår. Investeringsförvaltaren investerar hela tillgången i FLEX-optioner, som både säljs och köpoptioner.

Buffertstrategin börjar och slutar i maj varje år och balanseras sedan om genom att fonden investerar i ett nytt paket med FLEX-optioner. Taket beräknas på första referensdatum beroende på marknadsförhållanden, medan bufferten alltid ligger oförändrad på 15 procent. Det aktuella taket och buffertdetaljerna finns tillgängliga på First Trusts webbplats.

NamnISINAvgiftUtdelningspolicy
First Trust Vest U.S. Equity Moderate Buffer UCITS ETF – MayIE000P0FL8E30,85Ackumulerande

Produktutbudet i Deutsche Börses XTF-segment omfattar för närvarande totalt 2 163 ETFer. Med detta urval och en genomsnittlig månatlig handelsvolym på cirka 14 miljarder euro är Xetra den ledande handelsplatsen för ETFer i Europa.

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JSUD ETF köper amerikanska företag som följer Parisavtalet

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JPMorgan US Research Enhanced Index Equity SRI Paris Aligned UCITS ETF USD (dist) (JSUD ETF), med ISIN IE0002UMVXQ1 är en aktivt förvaltad ETF.

JPMorgan US Research Enhanced Index Equity SRI Paris Aligned UCITS ETF USD (dist) (JSUD ETF), med ISIN IE0002UMVXQ1 är en aktivt förvaltad ETF.

JP Morgan US Research Enhanced Index Equity SRI Paris Aligned Strategy investerar i amerikanska företag. ETF strävar efter att generera en högre avkastning än MSCI USA SRI EU PAB Overlay ESG Custom-index. Aktierna som ingår filtreras enligt ESG-kriterier (miljö, social och bolagsstyrning). Dessutom beaktas EU:s direktiv om klimatskydd.

Den börshandlade fondens TER (total cost ratio) uppgår till 0,20 % p.a. JPMorgan US Research Enhanced Index Equity SRI Paris Aligned UCITS ETF USD (dist) är den billigaste och största ETF som följer JP Morgan US Research Enhanced Index Equity SRI Paris Aligned index. ETFen replikerar det underliggande indexets prestanda genom samplingsteknik (köper ett urval av de mest relevanta indexbeståndsdelarna). Utdelningarna i ETFen delas ut till investerarna (Årligen).

ETF lanserades den 9 augusti 2023 och har sin hemvist i Irland.

Investeringsmål

Delfondens mål är att uppnå en långsiktig avkastning som överstiger MSCI USA SRI EU PAB Overlay ESG Custom Index* (”riktmärket”) genom att aktivt investera i huvudsak i en portfölj av amerikanska företag samtidigt som man anpassar sig till målen för Parisavtalet.

Riskprofil

Värdet på aktierelaterade värdepapper kan sjunka såväl som upp som svar på enskilda företags resultat och allmänna marknadsförhållanden, ibland snabbt eller oförutsägbart. Om ett företag går i konkurs eller en liknande finansiell omstrukturering förlorar dess aktier vanligtvis det mesta eller hela sitt värde.

Uteslutning av företag som inte uppfyller vissa kriterier från delfondens investeringsuniversum kan leda till att delfonden presterar annorlunda jämfört med liknande fonder som inte har en sådan policy.

Delfonden strävar efter att ge en avkastning över Benchmark; Delfonden kan dock prestera sämre än jämförelseindexet.

Handla JSUD ETF

JPMorgan US Research Enhanced Index Equity SRI Paris Aligned UCITS ETF USD (dist) (JSUD ETF) är en europeisk börshandlad fond. Denna fond handlas på flera olika börser, till exempel Deutsche Boerse Xetra och London Stock Exchange.

Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETF genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel DEGIRONordnet, Aktieinvest och Avanza.

Börsnoteringar

BörsValutaKortnamn
gettexEURJSUD
London Stock ExchangeUSDJSUD
XETRAEURJSUD

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