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Commodities Back In Favour As Recent Correction Deemed Excessive
Highlights Commodities Back In Favour As Recent Correction Deemed Excessive
Precious metals back in favour with US$13mn of inflows
Long WTI crude oil ETPs record largest inflows since April 2014 as price drops below $80 for the first time since June 2012
Profit taking drives US$11mn of outflows from long coffee ETPs
Negative sentiment towards copper remains despite expected deficit in 2014
While most commodity prices continued to lose ground last week, investors started to realise that prices cannot fall much further, prompting inflows into precious metals, WTI crude and agriculture. With most commodities trading at or below their marginal cost of production, we expect the recent downward correction in commodity prices to be short-lived and believe commodities are attractively valued at current levels.
Precious metals back in favour with US$13mn of inflows. With the exception of palladium, all precious metals received inflows last week reversing the negative trend seen over the past few weeks. With platinum trading 10% below its marginal cost of production and gold and silver fast approaching their breakeven levels, we believe those commodities are attractively valued. Increasing uncertainty in currency and equity markets should be beneficial to gold, while the recent pick-up in auto sales will continue to provide support to Platinum Group Metals (PGMs). While silver stocks remain elevated, we expect industrial demand to rise and buttress price action over the next few months as the recovery in the US and China gains momentum.
Long WTI crude oil ETPs record largest inflows since April 2014 as price drops below $80 for the first time since June 2012. Inflows totalled over US$20mn last week. While sentiment in the crude oil markets is negative at the moment, the US Energy Information Agency forecasts a production deficit for the remainder of 2014, which we believe is not factored in the price. We believe that if demand remains this weak OPEC will eventually cut production, helping to stabilise prices.
Profit taking drives US$11mn of outflows from long coffee ETPs. Arabica coffee has been the best performing commodity this year, with a 96% gain over the period. A weak harvest in Central America has recently exacerbated supply concerns. The International Coffee Organisation envisages only a slight recovery in the 2014/2015 season as a devastating leaf rust disease is likely to prompt switches to other crops, in turn reducing production. At the same time, agricultural basket ETPs recorded another week of strong inflows as investors deem the recent downward correction excessive. With the entire grains sector trading below total cost of production, a rebound is overdue.
Negative sentiment towards copper remains despite expected deficit in 2014. ETFS Daily Short Copper (SCOP) saw US$2.5m of inflows last week as the price dropped 2.6%. However, we believe the current price weakness will be short-lived as investors return to focus on fundamentals. The copper market will likely be in a deficit for the 5th consecutive year in 2014, according to the most recent estimates released by the International Copper Study Group. According to the revised figures, this year will see a supply deficit to the tune of 307,000 tons vs a previously expected supply surplus of 405,000 tons, on lower production and stronger demand.
Key events to watch this week. A number of Chinese economic statistics are coming out this week and will help investors gauge the strength of the economy as the PBOC introduces more stimulus. China’s Q3 GDP data will be watched closely for any sign of slowdown beyond target. Bank of England minutes will also be looked at closely as last month two policymakers voted for a rate hike, with seven voting for the status quo. A less hawkish Board meeting will likely see the downtrend for Sterling remain in place
Video Presentation
Simona Gambarini, Research Analyst at ETF Securities provides an analysis of last week’s performance, flow and trading activity in commodity exchange traded products and a look at the week ahead.
Important Information
This communication has been provided by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority.
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IncomeShares passed three milestones in August. Assets under management climbed to almost $66 million, cumulative fund flows topped $72 million, and turnover across London and Xetra listings reached over $27 million. Palantir paid the highest annualised distribution yield at 57.11%. The sections below break the numbers down in more detail.
Cumulative fund flows
Fund flows track how much money investors put into or take out of IncomeShares ETPs (exchange-traded products). Positive flows mean more money coming in than going out – a sign of demand for the products.
Flows have risen every month this year. In January, they stood at $13.7 million. By the end of August, they reached $72.4 million. That’s over $8 million of new money added in August alone – the biggest increase since May.
Trading turnover
Turnover is the total dollar value of IncomeShares ETPs bought and sold on the exchanges. Higher turnover means more activity and liquidity for investors.
Turnover reached $27.3 million in August – the highest on record and more than double January’s $13.0 million. London listings (USD and GBP combined) made up $14.2 million, with Xetra listings close behind at $13.1 million. Both exchanges have seen steady increases through 2025, showing rising interest in income options strategies across the board.
Note: Figures use IDC FX rates as of the August month-end to convert GBP and EUR into USD. We apply the same August rates to all prior months to compare turnover on a like-for-like basis.
Assets under management (AUM)
AUM is the total value of assets held across all IncomeShares ETPs. It grows when new investors buy in, or when the underlying assets rise in value.
AUM grew from $13.8 million in January to $65.8 million at the end of August. It was also $8 million more than in July. Steady inflows and consistent income distributions are helping the product range build scale.
Distribution yields
Distribution yields represent the annualised income paid to investors as a percentage of the current NAV (net asset value), based on the latest month’s yield. IncomeShares ETPs aim to generate this income from selling options. Yields change each month depending on strategy performance and market volatility.
Annualised August yields (ranked highest to lowest):
• Palantir Options ETP (PLTY): 57.11%
• Nasdaq 100 Options ETP (QQQY): 46.44%
• Coinbase Options ETP (COIY): 43.60%
• AMD Options ETP (AMDY): 41.43%
• Tesla Options ETP (TSLI): 40.97%
• Broadcom Options ETP (AVGY): 40.96%
• MicroStrategy Options ETP (MSTY): 37.61%
• Alibaba Options ETP (BABY): 35.90%
• S&P 500 Options ETP (SPYY): 32.95%
• NVIDIA Options ETP (NVDI): 28.42%
• Alphabet Options ETP (GOOI): 18.15%
• Magnificent 7 Options ETP (MAGO): 16.87%
• Apple Options ETP (AAPPY): 15.55%
• 20+ Year Treasury Options ETP (TLTY): 12.38%
• Amazon Options ETP (AMZI): 12.00%
• Silver+ Yield Options ETP (SLVY): 11.56%
• Meta Options ETP (METY): 11.32%
• Gold+ Yield Options ETP (GLDI): 6.74%
• Microsoft Options ETP (MSFY): 6.54%
Our Palantir ETP topped the list with an annualised yield of 57.11% for August, up from 30.57% in July. The stock was volatile in August, trading between $142 and $190. That wider range increased option premiums, which boosted the ETP’s yield. The ETP sells put options on Palantir stock and holds shares – the strategy used for all our single stock ETPs and the Magnificent 7 product.
The Nasdaq 100 ETP paid an annualised yield of 46.44% in August, up slightly from 44.52% in July. At the other end, Gold+ and Microsoft stayed below 7%, reflecting relatively calmer conditions in their underlying assets.
The table below shows the annalised distribution yields for all IncomeShares ETPs so far this year. Note that the bottom eight ETPs launched in late June, so they only have yields for July and August.
Key takeaways
• Fund flows climbed to $72.4 million, with August adding more than $8 million.
• Turnover hit a record $27.3 million, split almost evenly between London and Xetra.
• Palantir topped the yield table at 57%, with Nasdaq 100 and Coinbase also paying above 40%.
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