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2015 From Cyclical to Structural

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2015 From Cyclical to Structural

China Macro Monitor 2015 From Cyclical to Structural. After half a year of spectacular equity market performance to some the clouds of slowing economic growth cast doubt on China’s ability to maintain the rally.

However, that view over-emphasises the correlation between GDP performance and equity market performance. The link between economic and equity market performance has never been straight-forward. Indeed, China may follow a path similar to Japan, South Korea and Taiwan during their early stages of development. That indicates that equity market performance will accelerate during periods of financial market liberalisation rather than periods of strong economic growth.

A number of exogenous events may also prove to be supportive for both China’s domestic equity market and China’s role in the global economy. MSCI is due to evaluate the inclusion of China A-Shares in its Emerging Markets Index this June. The IMF is also due to conduct its five-yearly Special Drawing Rights (SDR) basket review this October. Renminbi inclusion discussions could become a catalyst for significant currency market liberalisation and a seismic shift in the role of the Chinese currency in international trade and finance.

We expect reform to remain the focus of policy makers’ agenda this year, with lower economic growth an acceptable by-product of stability. The authorities are unlikely to let growth fall substantially lower however, as that could stoke political unrest and undo the hard work of the reform agenda. We expect some policy easing, primarily in the form of lower interest rates and a reduction the Reserve Requirement Ratio in coming months.

ETFSChina1

A ROCKY PATH TO STABILITY

Although Chinese GDP growth of 7.4% in 2014 surpassed consensus expectations, it was the lowest reading in 24 years. The outlook for growth is lower still in 2015. Both the World Bank and IMF have downgraded their 2015 China growth forecasts to below 7%t this month. The message from policy makers in China is that sub-7% growth is acceptable, so long as its reform agenda continues apace.

Over the next decade China’s growth model will migrate away from cheap-currency dependent mercantilism and China will become increasingly more capitalist. Market forces will help the allocation of resources1 and the legal framework will be strengthened to improve quality of China’s institutional infrastructure2.
Transition will inevitably involve winners and losers, but society as a whole is likely to benefit from the new model. China will be careful not to move too quickly and aggravate political instability. With that in mind, it is likely that China will stimulate the economy further in 2015 to avoid a marked slowdown, especially in light of a faltering Euro area dampening global demand their good and services.

In spite of economic growth deceleration in H2 2014, the domestic equity market rallied 58%3. That is not unusual and the experiences of Japan, South Korea and Taiwan in their transition paths in earlier decades highlight that this is what we should expect. For example in Japan during the 1960s, a period of financial repression, the stock market underperformed relative to the overall economy. However in the 1980s when economic growth was subdued relative its past, the stock market performed particularly well in an environment of financial market liberalisation. South Korea and Taiwan experienced similar bouts of equity market outperformance during periods of financial market liberalisation, which countered the underperformance during earlier periods of financial repression and relatively stronger growth.

ETFSChina2

We believe China’s equity market underformance in recent years prior to the opening up of the Hong Kong-Shanghai Connect initiative in November 2014 was a symptom of a lack of market access. The Connect initiative significantly opened up market access. The fact that volumes traded on the Connect have not met expectations is irrelevant. The market has priced Shanghai stocks as internationally accessible now. The eventual opening of a Shenzhen Exchange link4 will give further access to Chinese domestic stocks, which will also become priced-in at some point.

We are likely to see equity market volatility rise. While structural shifts will move the equity market higher, periodic disappointment over growth figures are likely to lead to frequent corrections. This tug-of-war between the structural and cyclical drivers of the market will continue to divide analysts and see volatility remain high. Investors attracted to the recent rally should recognise the need for a significant degree of risk tolerance to weather rising market volatility.
In 2014, it was clear that Chinese equities were cheap by international standards. That is no longer the case. The MSCI China A-Share P/E is now close to the MSCI World P/E. P/Es in 2009 were undesirably high (it was a period of earnings weakness and price optimism in light of policy easing) and so should not be treated as a benchmark for where equity markets should go back to. Trading China on cheapness should be a thing of the past. Investing in China is once again about buying into structural change.

ETFSChina3

THE GLOBAL STAGE AWAITS

A number of events this year could prove to be a catalyst for further capital market deepening in China.
Firstly in June, MSCI will reconsider whether to include domestic Chinese equities into its emerging markets index. With approximately US$1.5tn benchmarked to MSCI China Emerging Markets Index, even a small allocation of 0.5% to the China A-Share market in the broader index could drive US$7.5bn into the market on the back of index replication by investors.

As a point of reference, the MSCI United Arab Emirates Net TR USD index rose over 90% between the time MSCI announced UAE stocks would enter its Emerging Market Index and actual inclusion (see shaded area of chart). While the Chinese and UAE markets are vastly different in size and composition, we believe the increasing probability of index inclusion will bode well for China A-Shares.

ETFSChina4

Secondly, in October the International Monetary Fund will review which currencies it will include in its Special Drawing Rights (SDR) currency basket. The SDR is an international reserve asset, created by the IMF in 1969 to supplement its member countries’ official reserves. Its value is based on a basket of four key international currencies, and SDRs can be exchanged for freely usable currencies. If the Renminbi is included in the basket, central banks buying/selling SDRs will have to deliver/receive Renminbi (in proportion to its weight in the basket).

In its last review in 2010 the IMF decided not to widen the currencies in the basket. At the time the IMF noted that China was the third largest exporter of goods and services but felt that the Renminbi was not a freely useable currency. However, they urged that this issue be kept under review. Since then, the Chinese Yuan has become the fifth most used payment currency according to SWIFT5, jumping from seventh position only a year earlier. The Renminbi became the ninth most actively traded currency according to the Bank of International Settlement’s 2013 triennial survey, jumping from 17th position in 2010. Over that period average daily turnover soared from US$34bn in 2010 to US$120bn in 2013.

ETFSChina5

Significant expansion in RMB offshore clearing centres around the world has helped fuel this trend and access to the currency has never been easier. In 2014, the Yuan-HK Dollar convertibility cap was abolished in recognition of the demand for Renminbi (timed with the opening of the Hong Kong-Shanghai Stock Connect initiative).

While capital and exchange rate controls will continue to hold back the Renminbi from SDR inclusion, we believe the IMF’s review this year will facilitate a road-map for further internationalisation of the currency. With the internationalisation of the Renminbi a stated policy objective we believe that the Chinese authorities will continue to dismantle controls on the currency.

With the Yuan trading very close to the edge of its trading band (see chart on front page), we could see further flexibility in the trading band this year. The recent depreciation against the US Dollar seems to be more about the strength of the US dollar than Yuan weakness, with the nominal effective rate actually having appreciated in December. Indeed there has been no increase in foreign exchange reserves that would occur if the authorities were intervening to depreciate the currency.

ETFSChina6

POLICY EASING IN 2015

With consumer price inflation weakening and property prices continuing to fall, we expect the Peoples Bank of China (PBoC) to cut interest rates further this year. We also expect the central bank to cut the Reserve Requirement Ratio (the amount of reserves banks need to hold with the central bank), thus improving banks’ ability to lend.
The transition away from shadow banks to the formal banking sector will continue in 2015, increasing pressure on the PBoC to provide liquidity support to banks. On January 22nd the PBoC injected CNY50bn into the banking system through the 7-day repo market. That was one of the many injections the central bank has provided in the past six months (see page 10 for other examples) and we expect the PBoC to maintain a strong hand on facilitating the transition in the financial sector.

ETFSChina7

1 “The focus of the restructuring of the economic system… is to allow the market [forces] to play a ‘decisive role’ in the allocation of resources”, Third Plenum Communiqué, November 2013
2 ”Comprehensively advancing the rule of law”, Fourth Plenum Communiqué, October 2014
3 MSCI China A-Share, between 30 June 2014 and 31 December 2014
4 Although no formal announcement has been made, Premier Li Keqiang has openly encouraged the opening of an Shenzhen link
5 December 2014

Important Information

This communication has been provided by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority. When being made within Italy, this communication is for the exclusive use of the ”qualified investors” and its circulation among the public is prohibited.

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Why Bitcoin belongs in your portfolio

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Bitcoin is now worth over $100,000, thanks to clearer regulations and growing interest from both big investors and everyday people. What began quietly in 2009 as a digital experiment has evolved into a globally recognized asset. That’s why it’s important to understand why people invest in Bitcoin.

Bitcoin is now worth over $100,000, thanks to clearer regulations and growing interest from both big investors and everyday people. What began quietly in 2009 as a digital experiment has evolved into a globally recognized asset. That’s why it’s important to understand why people invest in Bitcoin.

Mid-year momentum: What are Ethereum and Solana up to?

We’re halfway through 2025, and Ethereum and Solana have already made big moves. Both networks are rolling out major upgrades that could reshape how the crypto space works in the months ahead.

Beyond digital gold: Bitcoin enters the DeFi world

Bitcoin is often seen as a store of value, like digital gold, but hasn’t been known for doing much beyond that. That’s now changing. In 2025, a new trend called Bitcoin Finance (BTC-Fi) is gaining traction, turning Bitcoin into an active part of the broader crypto ecosystem.

Research Newsletter

Each week the 21Shares Research team will publish our data-driven insights into the crypto asset world through this newsletter. Please direct any comments, questions, and words of feedback to research@21shares.com

Disclaimer

The information provided does not constitute a prospectus or other offering material and does not contain or constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy securities in any jurisdiction. Some of the information published herein may contain forward-looking statements. Readers are cautioned that any such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks and uncertainties and that actual results may differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements as a result of various factors. The information contained herein may not be considered as economic, legal, tax or other advice and users are cautioned to base investment decisions or other decisions solely on the content hereof.

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USB7 ETF köper amerikanska statsobligationer med löptid upp till tio år

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Amundi US Treasury Bond 7-10Y UCITS ETF Acc (USB7 ETF) med ISIN LU1407887915, försöker följa Bloomberg US Treasury 7-10-index. Bloomberg US Treasury 7-10-index följer amerikanska statsobligationer. Tid till mognad: 7-10 år. Betyg: AAA.

Amundi US Treasury Bond 7-10Y UCITS ETF Acc (USB7 ETF) med ISIN LU1407887915, försöker följa Bloomberg US Treasury 7-10-index. Bloomberg US Treasury 7-10-index följer amerikanska statsobligationer. Tid till mognad: 7-10 år. Betyg: AAA.

Den börshandlade fondens TER (total cost ratio) uppgår till 0,06% p.a. Amundi US Treasury Bond 7-10Y UCITS ETF Acc är den enda ETF som följer Bloomberg US Treasury 7-10 index. ETFen replikerar det underliggande indexets prestanda genom fullständig replikering (köper alla indexbeståndsdelar). Ränteintäkterna (kupongerna) i ETFen ackumuleras och återinvesteras.

Amundi US Treasury Bond 7-10Y UCITS ETF Acc är en stor ETF med tillgångar på 751 miljoner euro under förvaltning. Denna ETF lanserades den 2 juni 2023 och har sin hemvist i Luxemburg.

Investeringsmål

Amundi US Treasury Bond 7-10Y UCITS ETF Acc strävar efter att så nära som möjligt replikera resultatet för Bloomberg US Treasury 7-10 Year Index (”Referensindex”), denominerat i USD, oavsett om trenden stiger eller faller medan minimera volatiliteten i skillnaden mellan delfondens avkastning och indexets avkastning (”Spårningsfelet” För ytterligare information om indexregler, se fondprospektet eller KID).

Handla USB7 ETF

Amundi US Treasury Bond 7-10Y UCITS ETF Acc (USB7 ETF) är en europeisk börshandlad fond. Denna fond handlas på flera olika börser, till exempel Deutsche Boerse Xetra och Borsa Italiana.

Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETF genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel DEGIRONordnet, Aktieinvest och Avanza.

Börsnoteringar

BörsValutaKortnamn
XETRAEURUSB7
Borsa ItalianaEURUS7
SIX Swiss ExchangeUSDUS7

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Kryptons revansch: Därför lockar bitcoin investerare igen – så enkelt kan du få dubbel exponering

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Kryptons revansch Bitcoin har åter klivit in i rampljuset. Efter några volatila år växer intresset för kryptovalutor - och det kommer

Bitcoin har åter klivit in i rampljuset. Efter några volatila år växer intresset för kryptovalutor – och det kommer inte bara från teknikentusiaster och privatsparare, utan i allt högre grad från institutionella investerare, stora företag och det politiska ledare.

Men vad driver uppgången – och hur kan du som investerare positionera dig?

En anledning till att bitcoin är hett igen är den nya räntemiljön och oron för ihållande inflation. Många investerare söker tillgångar som kan bevara sitt värde, och bitcoin ses i allt högre grad som ett digitalt guld.

För det andra har bitcoin fått ökad legitimitet bland institutionella investerare. Ifjol godkändes de första spot-ETF:erna för bitcoin i USA – en historisk milstolpe. Dessutom har företag som Visa, Mastercard och PayPal integrerat kryptovalutor i sina system. Denna institutionella genomslag signalerar att bitcoin inte längre är en nischinvestering.

Bitcoin har också en begränsad tillgång, till skillnad från fiatvalutor som kan tryckas i obegränsade mängder. Bitcoin har ett förutbestämt tak på 21 miljoner i antal, vilket gör det attraktivt för den som vill skydda sig mot urholkad köpkraft.

För det fjärde har tekniken har också blivit snabbare, och det är nu enklare än någonsin att använda bitcoin i praktiken. Samtidigt är det nu möjligt att investera i kryptovalutor via vanliga depåer och reglerade börser, utan att behöva hantera privata nycklar eller sätta sig in i tekniska detaljer.

Så får du dubbel exponering – utan terminer eller marginalkonto:

Om du tror på en fortsatt uppgång i kryptomarknaden och vill ha förstärkt exponering, har HANetf lanserat en 2x long bitcoin ETP. Med två gånger hävstång rör sig produktens värde dubbelt så mycket som den underliggande kryptovalutan, dag för dag. Till exempel motsvarar 2 procent uppgång i bitcoin 4 procent ökning i produkten.

En stor fördel med detta investeringsinstrument är att du inte behöver använda derivat, ta lån eller öppna ett särskilt (marginal)konto.

HANetf vill göra taktisk exponering mot krypto tillgänglig för fler investerare på ett reglerat och säkert sätt. Deras utbud av hävstångsprodukter inom krypto (leveraged crypto ETPs) kan handlas via plattformar som Avanza, precis som aktier eller vanliga börshandlade fonder (ETF:er). Den fullständiga listan över handelsplattformar finns på HANetfs webbplats.

Förbindelsen går åt båda hållen – HANetf erbjuder också en Daily Short Bitcoin ETP, som är utformad för att ge investerare ett sätt att få daglig kort exponering mot bitcoin.

Men det är också viktigt att förstå riskerna:

Produkter med hävstång förstärker både vinster och förluster. Därför är det avgörande att ha en tydlig strategi och förstå hur daglig hävstång fungerar. För en mer djupgående genomgång av hur dagliga hävstångs- och short-ETP:er fungerar, kan du läsa hela förklaringsguiden på HANetf:s webbplats.

Dessa produkter passar bäst för erfarna investerare med ett kortsiktigt perspektiv.

HANetf erbjuder också en motsvarande 2x hävstång för kryptovalutan Ethereum.

Handla 2LBT ETC

2x Long Bitcoin ETC (2LBT ETC) är en europeisk börshandlad kryptovaluta. Denna börshandlade produkt handlas på Nasdaq Stockholm.

Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETF genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel  NordnetSAVRLevlerDEGIRO och Avanza.

Handla 2LET ETC

2x Long Ethereum (2LET ETC) är en europeisk börshandlad kryptovaluta. Denna börshandlade produkt handlas på Nasdaq Stockholm.

Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETF genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel  NordnetSAVRLevlerDEGIRO och Avanza.

Handla 2SBT ETC

2x Short Bitcoin (2SBT ETC) är en europeisk börshandlad kryptovaluta. Denna börshandlade produkt handlas på Nasdaq Stockholm.

Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETF genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel  NordnetSAVRLevlerDEGIRO och Avanza.

OM HANetf:

HANetf är en oberoende leverantör av börshandlade produkter (ETP:er) som samarbetar med kapitalförvaltare för att erbjuda unika, moderna och innovativa investeringsmöjligheter för europeiska investerare.

Genom en white-label-plattform erbjuds en komplett lösning för att lansera och hantera UCITS-ETFer och ETC:er – inklusive drift, regelverk, distribution och marknadsföring – åt kapitalförvaltare över hela världen.

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