ETF Securities Weekly Flows Analysis – Tensions with North Korea to support demand for gold
Gold ETPs recorded the largest weekly inflows since March as tensions with North Korea escalate.
Short Oil ETPs recorded inflows as oil prices trade around US$50/bbl on average.
Inflows into copper ETPs as manufacturing activity in China grew more than expected in August.
Investors rushed into gold ETPs as North Korea is threatening further military tests near the US seas. Last week saw US$122.5mn inflows into gold ETPs as tensions with North Korea intensify. Whilst the country has been demonstrating its military force since at least the 80’s, it has stepping up its provocations since the summer 2016 when Kim Jong-un claims that he can launch a missile capable of striking the US. Verbal provocations recently turned into military action with a North Korean missile overflying Japan on Tuesday morning. Allies have responded by another demonstration of force on Thursday as US bombers joined South Korea in a live-fire bombing exercise over South Korea. Russia and China, on the other hand, are pushing for diplomatic talks. Gold price rose by 2.6% on Tuesday, closing above US$1,318/oz., the highest level since September 2016, before ending the week at US$1,320/oz. Platinum and silver, on the other hand, recorded outflows of US$12.4mn and US$34.5mn respectively, likely on profit-taking as prices touched the highest levels since Q1 2017.
Inflows into shortoil ETPs sent mix signals despite robust domestic demand for oil in the US. Hurricane Harvey which hit the US Gulf Coast damaged a third of US oil refineries, sending the price of heating oil and gasoline to the highest level since the summer 2015. The hurricane, downgraded to tropical depression, is the first category 3 to make landfall in the US since 2005. Oil prices, on the other hand, have barely moved from their current momentum. WTI fell 1.2% over the past week while Brent remains flat. Natural gas was up 6.2% over the week as the active contract rolled from September to October on Wednesday with a curve in contango. After six weeks of outflows, oil ETPs recorded US$5.8mn inflows last week, mostly into short oil ETPs, reflecting investors’ views that oil prices will remain range-bound. However, US domestic demand for oil remains strong as inventories declined more than expected last week despite production continuing to rise.
Copper ETPs recorded inflows on growing Chinese manufacturing activities in August. China manufacturing PMI surprised the market to the upside while service and non-manufacturing PMIs grew at their lowest pace in four months as construction activity slowed down. Interestingly, the Caixin manufacturing PMI, released last Friday, also confirmed a pickup in in industrial activities at 51.6 against 51 expected and 51.1 in July. While the Chinese National Bureau of Statistics data focus on large to mid-sized companies, the Caixin manufacturing PMI tracks smaller and private businesses and therefore provides an independent reading from official numbers. The price of industrial metals rose by 3.0% on average last week and 10.8% over the past month. We continue to expect Chinese data to beat expectations and support demand for metals.
Video Presentation
Edith Southammakosane, Research Analyst at ETF Securities provides an analysis of last week’s performance, flow and trading activity in commodity exchange traded products and a look at the week ahead.
For more information contact
ETF Securities Research team ETF Securities (UK) Limited T +44 (0) 207 448 4336 E info@etfsecurities.com
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Från och med förra torsdagen handlas den första börshandlade fonden som emitterats av TEQ Capital på Deutsche Börse.
TEQ – General Artificial Intelligence EUR UCITSETFerbjuder investerare fokuserad exponering mot globalt noterade företag som bidrar avsevärt till utveckling, implementering och kommersialisering av generell artificiell intelligens (General AI). Generell AI avser en form av artificiell intelligens som – till skillnad från specialiserad ”smal” AI – kan tillämpa kunskap flexibelt inom ett brett spektrum av intellektuella uppgifter och uppnå prestanda på mänsklig nivå eller till och med övermänsklig nivå.
Upp till 100 företag kommer att väljas ut från fem kärnteknikkategorier längs den allmänna AI-värdekedjan: ledande AI-utvecklare och molnleverantörer, AI-chip, AI-tillverkning, datorinfrastruktur samt dataplattformar och IT-säkerhetslösningar.
Produktutbudet inom Deutsche Börses ETF- och ETP-segment omfattar för närvarande totalt 2 683 ETFer, 203 ETCer och 286 ETNer. Med detta urval och en genomsnittlig månatlig handelsvolym på cirka 29,4 miljarder euro är Deutsche Börse Xetra den ledande handelsplatsen för ETFer och ETPer i Europa.
BNP Paribas Easy MSCI USA Small Cap Min TE UCITSETF USD Acc (ESAH ETF) med ISIN IE000ZME9TM4, syftar till att följa MSCI USA Small Cap Select Filtered Min TE-indexet. MSCI USA Small Cap Select Filtered Min TE-indexet följer amerikanska småbolagsaktier. Aktierna som ingår filtreras enligt ESG-kriterier (miljömässiga, sociala och bolagsstyrningsaspekter). Indexet syftar också till att minimera spårningsfelet i förhållande till moderindexet (MSCI USA Small Cap).
Den börshandlade fondens TER (total expense ratio) uppgår till 0,25 % per år. BNP Paribas Easy MSCI USA Small Cap Min TE UCITSETF USD Accär den billigaste och största ETF som följer MSCI USA Small Cap Select Filtered Min TE-indexet. ETFen replikerar det underliggande indexets utveckling genom fullständig replikering (genom att köpa alla indexkomponenter). Utdelningarna i ETFen ackumuleras och återinvesteras.
Denna ETF lanserades den 16 maj 2025 och har sitt säte i Irland.
Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETF genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel Nordnet, SAVR, DEGIRO och Avanza.
Welcome to the State of Crypto Weekly, an investor-focused newsletter from 21shares that dives into the key trends driving the digital asset landscape.
This week, we’re unveiling our Price Predictions series, unpacking the key drivers for the year ahead:
Where is Bitcoin headed in 2026?
Why we think Ethereum can go up to $4,200 this year, and what could drag it down to $1,700.
And, should you find yourself in Davos this week, we would love to connect with you. If you’re up for combining alpine views with crypto conversation, please reach out to our President Duncan Moir, Research Strategist Darius Moukhtarzadeh, or Head of Northern Europe Bernhard Wenger.
Predicting prices is arguably the financial world’s favorite game. In the cryptocurrency market, that interest is multiplied by historical narratives around volatility and market reactions. But what really drives prices? And what do we think is on the cards for Bitcoin and Ethereum in 2026?
WHERE IS BITCOIN HEADED IN 2026?
ETF gravity vs. Macro ceiling
The halving’s influence has peaked. By early 2026, Bitcoin’s price will no longer be driven by this supply shift but by how effectively long-term holders absorb sell-offs from ETFs during shifts in the global economy.
WHY WE THINK ETHEREUM CAN GO UP TO $4,200 THIS YEAR…
And what could drag it down to $1,700
Price action is now driven less by the ultrasound money narrative that shaped Ethereum from 2021-2023 and more by ETF flows and whether real economic throughput on Ethereum can translate into sustainable, profitable consumer applications.
This shift has accelerated over the past quarter as Ethereum’s position as the preferred venue for stablecoins and tokenized assets has further consolidated.
Crypto research strategist Matt Mena was quoted on CoinDesk: “This morning’s CPI report has provided the definitive anchor the market needed to clear the lingering data fog from late 2025. Core CPI coming in lower than expected reinforces the Fed’s soft landing narrative and increases chances of further cuts this year, even amid political noise around the DOJ’s investigation into Chair Powell.”
Matt was also quoted on Forbes: ”This Supreme Court ruling on federal tariff authority will be a massive volatility driver for both the dollar and risk assets.”
Our senior sales associate, Bruna Cabús, will be on CNN Brasil tomorrow, Tuesday, at 7:30 PM BRT to talk about crypto. In the meantime, connect with her on LinkedIn.
Our very own crypto research strategist Darius Moukhtarzadeh will be speaking at Web3 Hub in Davos on Thursday, January 22.
Connect with us today
If you have any questions or want to discuss a product in detail, please visit our website at www.21shares.com
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Research Newsletter
Each week the 21Shares Research team will publish our data-driven insights into the crypto asset world through this newsletter. Please direct any comments, questions, and words of feedback to research@21shares.com
Disclaimer
The information provided does not constitute a prospectus or other offering material and does not contain or constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy securities in any jurisdiction. Some of the information published herein may contain forward-looking statements. Readers are cautioned that any such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks and uncertainties and that actual results may differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements as a result of various factors. The information contained herein may not be considered as economic, legal, tax or other advice and users are cautioned to base investment decisions or other decisions solely on the content hereof.