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Sterling oversold?
Trade Idea – Foreign Exchange – Sterling oversold?
Highlights
- Sterling crashed overnight as a combination of heavy selling and limited liquidity sent the currency spiralling. Sterling oversold?
- Markets are pricing in a “hard” Brexit scenario and an overly pessimistic economic outlook for the UK.
- Current levels are attractive for UK investors to hedge FX risk and lock in recent gains on international allocations.
Threat of “hard” Brexit pressures GBP
Sterling has had its worst week since the referendum, turning sharply lower and experiencing an overnight “flash crash” as markets digested Theresa May’s speech last Sunday, which offered up some valuable details of the “Government’s plan for Brexit”. The speech, delivered to the annual Conservative Party conference, outlined what many have interpreted as the first steps towards a “hard” Brexit, whereby the UK removes itself from the single market. In response, Sterling has plunged to 31- year lows and was even struck by a bout of sharp selling upon the Asian open this morning, pushing it temporarily to as low as the 1.18 level (see GBP takes a mysterious pounding). The sharp decline appears to be largely speculative in nature and in our opinion has little grounding in fundamentals. As such, we see current levels as an attractive longer term opportunity to short the Sterling via the GBP/USD and EUR/GBP and a favourable level for UK investors to hedge foreign currency risk.
Iterative process
In our opinion, May’s speech was less a direct indication of a “hard” Brexit but rather a description of the first steps in a largely iterative process that will form the basis of Brexit proceedings. May made it clear that once EU law is transposed into British legislation any changes and amendments would be subject to “full scrutiny and proper Parliamentary debate”. This suggests that concrete details on economic matters, such as future status of trade and business relations with the EU, could take years to crystallise. As such we feel the pullback in the GBP is largely overdone as investor’s price in an overly pessimistic economic scenario.
(Click to enlarge)
Rebound ahead
Technical indicators of momentum and speculative positioning both point to the GBP being oversold. Speculative short positions towards the GBP are at record highs while both the GBP/USD and EUR/GBP currency pairs are trading over 6% away from their respective 100 daily moving average (DMA). Current levels therefore look attractive points for UK investors with US or continental European assets to establish tactical currency hedges, locking the recent foreign currency gains in their international allocations. The pairs also offer an attractive opportunity for those with a longer term horizon to gain long Sterling exposure at favourable levels.
In addition, the Bank of England is unlikely to loosen monetary settings further at its upcoming monetary policy meeting on the 3rd November. Despite previously stating that “a further cut” is expected “during the course of this year” we don’t believe that current UK economic conditions warrant such action. This removes downward pressure on the GBP from monetary accommodation in the coming months.
Investors wishing to express the investment views outlined above may consider using the following ETF Securities ETPs:
Currency ETPs
GBP Base
ETFS Long EUR Short GBP (GBUR)
ETFS Short EUR Long GBP (URGB)
ETFS Long USD Short GBP (GBUS)
ETFS Short USD Long GBP (USGB)
USD Base
ETFS Long GBP Short USD (LGBP)
ETFS Short GBP Long USD (SGBP)
3x
ETFS 3x Long GBP Short EUR (EGB3)
ETFS 3x Short GBP Long EUR (GBE3)
ETFS 3x Long GBP Short USD (LGB3)
ETFS 3x Short GBP Long USD (SGB3)
ETFS 3x Long USD Short GBP (USP3)
ETFS 3x Short USD Long GBP (PUS3)
ETFS 3x Long EUR Short GBP (EUP3)
ETFS 3x Short EUR Long GBP (SUP3)
5x
ETFS 5x Long GBP Short EUR (EGB5)
ETFS 5x Short GBP Long EUR (GBE5)
Basket
ETFS Bullish GBP vs G10 Currency Basket Securities (LGBB)
ETFS Bearish GBP vs G10 Currency Basket Securities (SGBB)
For more information contact:
ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E info@etfsecurities.com
Important Information
This communication has been provided by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (the ”FCA”).
This communication is only targeted at qualified or professional investors.
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