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REIT update December 2015
REIT update December 2015. Marknaden för REIT bolag har varit ganska slagig och volatil under november månad. December har börjat med negativa avkastningar på alla REIT marknader vi täcker. Överlag klarade våra REIT fonder sig bra i november förutom UB European REIT som tappade 0,81%. Makro bilden i USA är att FED kommer att höja räntan nu i december och att den amerikanska ekonomin ser relativt svag ut för tillfället även om arbetsmarknaden ser ut att må bra. Tillverkningsindustrin saktar av kraftigt och tidigare har detta till och med lett till recession. Men den stora frågan är ifall arbetsmarknaden är stark nog att få igång en ökning av lönerna, vilket skulle vara mycket positivt för ekonomin i.o.m. att nästan 70 % av BNP tillväxten kommer ifrån konsumtion.
Värderingarna på REIT aktier ser förmånliga ut, speciellt i USA där det dessutom råder hög aktivitet i fastighetsmarknaden. Vi har under 2015 sett 5 REIT bolag som ingick i vår UB Nordamerika REIT fond köpas ut från börsen. En starkare ekonomi i USA och att man hållit tillbaka byggandet av fastigheter skapar goda förutsättningar för REITs med stigande hyror och lägre vakansgrader på lite längre sikt. Om inflationen stiger är det till fördel för REITs som har indexeringar som ”kickar” in.
Som vi nämnde vid vår senaste uppdatering, var vi (och är fortfarande) positiva till REIT bolag i Asien. Vi har kunnat observera den tendens till ”mean-reversion” korrigering i november som vi diskuterat tidigare. De större fastighetsbolagen i Kina har gått starkt under den senaste tiden (t.ex. China Overseas Land & Inv. samt China Vanke) och om det håller i sig kan också de mindre och medelstora bolagen följa med vilket kan leda till en bredare och starkare återhämtning i den asiatiska listade fastighetsmarknaden.
Vi ser fortfarande en attraktiv värdering av REIT bolag i Asien med vår UB Asia REIT fond på en substansvärdering på 0,8 i förhållande till NAV och med en direktavkastning på 4,90%.
Disclaimer
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• Global crypto asset adoption rates are significantly higher than previously estimated.
• The data generally suggest that both the US and Europe may be at the cusp of mass retail adoption – a situation often referred to as “Hyperbitcoinization” in the context of Bitcoin.
• Chances are that the growth of adoption will surprise to the upside due to the fact that we are most likely at the inflection point from ”Early Adopters” to ”Early Majority”.
Trump recently made a public statement implying that 50 million Americans already held ”crypto”. The most recent surveys among US consumers seem to support this number.
It is no surprise that cryptoassets have become a major topic during the US presidential election as the parties have become increasingly aware that cryptoasset users could play a significant role at the ballot.
Both Trump and Robert Kennedy Jr. are scheduled to deliver a pro-Bitcoin speech at the upcoming Bitcoin conference in Nashville over the weekend.
It seems as if cryptoasset users are not a small minority anymore that can be ignored.
Here are some recent US bitcoin and crypto adoption surveys for comparison (% of total population in brackets):
• Security.org: 93 mn (28%)
• Unchained: 86 mn (26%)
• Statista: 53.6 mn (16%)
• Morning Consult: 44.2 mn (13%)
• Finder: 38.4 mn (11%)
In general, cryptoasset adoption has been on the rise globally.
A recent global survey among institutional investors conducted by Fidelity even implies that 51% of surveyed institutional investors have already invested into cryptoassets such as Bitcoin.
Another recent consumer survey by Statista implies that approximately every 5th person (21%) worldwide has already invested into cryptoassets.
However, it’s important to highlight that among the top 10 regions with the highest adoption rates, 8 regions are developing countries.
So, cryptoasset adoption rates are even significantly higher among developing countries than in developed countries that often suffer from chronically high inflation rates and weak domestic currencies.
That being said, the data generally suggest that both the US and Europe may be at the cusp of mass retail adoption – a situation often referred to as “Hyperbitcoinization” in the context of Bitcoin.
The reason is that technological adoption in general tends to accelerate at the threshold from the so-called “early adopters” to the “early majority” which is around 16% adoption rate based on the model of technological adoption famously put forth by Rogers (1962).
Global adoption rates are already at 21% while adoption rates in the US and Europe are at around 16% and 14%, respectively. So, there is a strong case for an acceleration of adoption rates in these regions and globally over the coming years.
Recent political developments in the US also imply that Bitcoin and cryptoassets are gradually becoming mainstream.
Trump has recently endorsed domestic Bitcoin mining in the US and both Democrats and Republicans have started accepting crypto payments for campaign financing.
The big success of the spot Bitcoin ETFs this year and the fact that additional types of spot crypto ETFs are being launched marks a significant shift in sentiment among US regulators in this regard.
In short, chances are that the growth of adoption will surprise to the upside due to the fact that we are most-likely at the inflection point from ”Early Adopters” to ”Early Majority”.
Bottom Line
• Global crypto asset adoption rates are significantly higher than previously estimated.
• The data generally suggest that both the US and Europe may be at the cusp of mass retail adoption – a situation often referred to as “Hyperbitcoinization” in the context of Bitcoin.
• Chances are that the growth of adoption will surprise to the upside due to the fact that we are most likely at the inflection point from ”Early Adopters” to ”Early Majority”.
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